Open shots and cheap shots

[BrieflySpeaking]

I noticed a poster in another thread being amused by this quote

"Patterson shot 37.2% from three-point range despite missing every three-pointer he took (or so it felt at times)"

So, what is that all about? A percentage is just a matter of counting up makes and misses. How did "feelings" get involved? It makes you wonder whether all the talk about Patterson's inconsistency is real or if is just based on a "feeling"?

Patrick Patterson: 3P% by Year

Year		Patterson	League Average
2014-15		   .371		    .350
2015-16		   .362		    .354
2016-17		   .372		    .358

Patterson has shot about ten or twenty points better than the league three-point average each season. His worst year since joining the Raptors is .362. The Raptors other three-point shooters have all had much worse seasons over that period Carroll (.341), Lowry (.338), Ibaka (.326), Tucker(.330), Powell (.324), Joseph (.273.)

There is really no question that Patterson has been a very consistent three-point shooter from year-to-year. But, maybe he was up and down during the season? It seemed like the complaints got louder as the year wore on.

Patrick Patterson: 3P% by Month

Oct-Nov		.329
Dec		.407
Jan		.400
Feb		.263 (injured, based on 19 shots)
Mar		.404
Apr		.429

Nope, other than a cool start and a blip when returning from injury, Patterson shot over .400 every month. He was the only Raptor to shoot over 40% from downtown in four different months.

Did he have some really bad individual games? Not really, looking through Patterson's game log, the worst three-point outing I see is 0-for-4. Lots of Raptors had worse games than that.

Bad down the stretch? Definitely not. Patterson always shoots 3-pointers better late in the game. He has shot a higher percentage than Lowry in the 4th quarter every year.

Patrick Patterson: 4th Quarter 3P%

2014-15			.415
2015-16			.420
2016-17			.446

So, where do the claims about inconsistency come from?



Missing Open Shots

How many times after Pat missed an open three-pointer did we hear Jack Armstrong whine "Patterson's got to hit those open looks!"

The trouble with this statement is that it's ridiculous -- you can't expect anyone to automatically make a particular three-point shot. You might as well complain that Steph Curry is inconsistent because he misses most of his open threes. I mean you will be right most of the time but...

The facts are that league as a whole shot .381 on "wide open" three-point attempts, while Patterson shot .392.

So what is all the whining about? Patterson actually makes far more than his share of open looks. Always has. In his previous seasons with the Raptors he shot .420, .403 and .463 on "wide open" threes. That's his game. He's a new-era, three-and-D, spread-the-floor shooter. The kind of player that impacts the score of games far more than his individual stats suggest.

It's understandable that TV analysts want to come up with "insights" even when they don't actually have any. But, criticizing a particular player, on air, every time he misses an open three-pointer is a really cheap shot. It sets up an expectation which nobody can possibly live up to. And once the rest of the media joined in, it was inevitable that fans would end up believing Patterson was hopelessly inconsistent.

Which is too bad, because Patterson deserved better. In the Raptor's best seasons to date, Pat has been a real difference maker. A big part of a bench that was the key to winning many games. A stalwart in fourth quarters on both ends of the court. His confidence certainly appeared to waver at times this season (maybe partly due to injury, maybe partly due to inconsistent touches, maybe partly due to the media hatchet job) But, to Pat's credit, his actual shot-making remained consistent.

[planetmars]

I'd love to bring back all four guys.. I just don't see Masai (ie, MLSE) paying that much tax. Unless he can dump JV and Carroll it's not likely. Hope 2Pat finds a good gig somewhere. He's been good to this franchise.

[Maury]

I guess from a fan perspective, it seems like he missed the really important, momentum changing (or maintaining) shots that a team needs to win. You can't measure things like momentum and timely shooting with numbers (at least I don't think so). And so although pat has an undeniably positive impact on the game, it's hard to watch him miss such important shots. It's almost as if he makes 3s that don't particularly matter, (which is obviously false, the all matter, it just seems this way when watching games).


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[BrieflySpeaking]

I rest my case

[consmap]

But what about games where the score isn't even close, or any 3s that he hits near the end of the 4th quarter after it's clear that the game is gonna end up being a loss?

I don't disagree with you though. I think part of it is that there's this idea that Patterson should be more of a game changer than he is, when really he's just a solid piece that doesn't really move the needle. There's also those frustrating times where he doesn't take the open 3 and either passes it off or pumpfakes and drives into the paint where he isn't as effective.

[SkywalkerAC]

Great post.

[3inthekeon]

But what about games where the score isn't even close, or any 3s that he hits near the end of the 4th quarter after it's clear that the game is gonna end up being a loss?

How many did hit hit in those situations? I think very few.

I do agree he should have shot more, there did seem to be confidence issues, especially late in the season and the playoffs.

[golden]

Nice post. If you could take your research to the next level of looking at: (a) clutch situations, (b) playoffs & (c) times when Patterson turned down open 3's (not just wide open 3's), then I think we'd have a better picture. Pat's usage is already so low, that when he does turn down that open 3, it really messes up the entire possession. That never reflects on Pat's personal stats, but it is definitely a net negative for the team. If he takes those open shots where he's uncomfortable, then you'd probably see his percentages come down.

Great work, but not quite ready to call it Q.E.D.

[inthepaint]

Nice post. Pat has been a great player for the Raptors, and the team suffered when he was injured. What got him under the bus were two factors imo:

1. Passing up (not attempting) open 3pt shots on key moments (like when we were vastly being outscored from deep by the cavs). CLE was attempting AND knocking down 3's every other possession, left-right-and-centre, every game. It was the largest 3-pt differential in NBA history in a 4-game playoff stretch. When you compared their offence to ours, pat became, deservingly or not, the "poster child" of how differently the cavs and us approached the 3pt line. He also became a living illustration of "trap DeRozan & Lowry and dare someone else to beat us, cuz they won't". Again, maybe not deservingly, he became representative of our "playoff softness", timid with our attempts.

It's not fair to judge a player on a 4-game stretch. By strict numbers, maybe that stretch wasn't even that different from what he normally is. But if that stretch is a franchise-defining playoff series against the one team you need to be beat in the East, and while we're desperately trying to even things out from deep you're hiding in the background passing up shots, that will have a big impact on how fans perceive you (disproportionately to your actual stats). I'm not saying that's fair, but if on clutch time you don't show up, people will notice.

2. He entered free agency with 3 other players on a ballooning salary year. It's hard to afford all 4, the other three are seen as more key players, so he gets the short stick. If it wasn't for that, he'd be in the chatter for next years's roster

Pat will likely be gone, and another team will be lucky to have him. If he ends up staying though, I'm sure he'll remember he's gotta show up on the playoffs too, and I think one way or the other he will grow this season.

[BrieflySpeaking]

Nice post. If you could take your research to the next level of looking at: (a) clutch situations, (b) playoffs & (c) times when Patterson turned down open 3's (not just wide open 3's), then I think we'd have a better picture. Pat's usage is already so low, that when he does turn down that open 3, it really messes up the entire possession. That never reflects on Pat's personal stats, but it is definitely a net negative for the team. If he takes those open shots where he's uncomfortable, then you'd probably see his percentages come down.

Great work, but not quite ready to call it Q.E.D.

Definitely not. What is? You raise some great questions. I am not going to answer them, but that information would be interesting.

I'm really just pointing out that TV analysts like Matt Devlin and Jack Armstrong are company men who are paid to create favorable spin and compelling story lines. So, maybe take Matt and Jack's ramblings with a grain of salt.

[BrieflySpeaking]

Almost an hour later, it turns out I am going to try answer one of the points Golden raised. The league eFG% in clutch-time is .462 over the last three years. A great clutch shooter like Curry shot .523.

Toronto Clutch Time* Shooting (2014-2017)

			FGA	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan		290	.436
Kyle Lowry		260	.438
Patrick Patterson	 60	.567
Jonas Valanciunas	 49	.510
Cory Joseph		 37	.486
DeMarre Carroll		 22	.273
Norman Powell		 17	.441

Can you spot the problem? It's not Patterson.

The predictability with which the Raptors go to their iso guards late in games is self defeating. If you look at True Shooting Percentage, which includes getting to the free throw line, then Lowry and Derozan's efficiency is somewhat better. But, they are both still below the league average and still way behind Patterson, Ross and Valanciunas.

Until the "All-Stars Club" culture actually changes, it's not going to matter who else is on the court in crunch time. Adding a black hole like Ibaka to the mix certainly doesn't figure to make the ball move more. Here are some other pertinent players clutch shooting over the last three years.

			FGA	eFG%
Terrence Ross		 65	.562
Serge Ibaka		 89	.455
PJ Tucker		 83	.434

* Clutch Time: During the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points

But what about games where the score isn't even close, or any 3s that he hits near the end of the 4th quarter after it's clear that the game is gonna end up being a loss?.

Patterson's .567 clutch time shooting over the last three seasons has been 13th best in the league. That doesn't means a huge amount given the small sample size. But, when you combine it with Pat's over-all 4th quarter shooting and the massive impact his presence on the court has had both at the end of games and over-all...

I just don't think it's correct to assume the worst, unless you have some evidence other than a general impression from watching and listening to a handful of situations in a handful of games. Some shots go in, some don't. Drawing conclusions after the fact is bs. I'm not sure whether or not the announcers know it's bs, but it's bs nonetheless.

[golden]

Almost an hour later, it turns out I am going to try answer one of the points Golden raised. The league eFG% in clutch-time is .462 over the last three years. A great clutch shooter like Curry shot .523.

Toronto Clutch Time* Shooting (2014-2017)

			FGA	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan		290	.436
Kyle Lowry		260	.438
Patrick Patterson	 60	.567
Jonas Valanciunas	 49	.510
Cory Joseph		 37	.486
DeMarre Carroll		 22	.273
Norman Powell		 17	.441

Can you spot the problem? It's not Patterson.

The predictability with which the Raptors go to their iso guards late in games is self defeating. If you look at True Shooting Percentage, which includes getting to the free throw line, then Lowry and Derozan's efficiency is somewhat better. But, they are both still below the league average and still way behind Patterson, Ross and Valanciunas.

Until the "All-Stars Club" culture actually changes, it's not going to matter who else is on the court in crunch time. Adding a black hole like Ibaka to the mix certainly doesn't figure to make the ball move more. Here are some other pertinent players clutch shooting over the last three years.

			FGA	eFG%
Terrence Ross		 65	.562
Serge Ibaka		 89	.455
PJ Tucker		 83	.434

* Clutch Time: During the 4th quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes remaining, and neither team ahead by more than five points



Patterson's .567 clutch time shooting over the last three seasons has been 13th best in the league. That doesn't means a huge amount given the small sample size. But, when you combine it with Pat's over-all 4th quarter shooting and the massive impact his presence on the court has had both at the end of games and over-all...

I just don't think it's correct to assume the worst, unless you have some evidence other than a general impression from watching and listening to a handful of situations in a handful of games. Some shots go in, some don't. Drawing conclusions after the fact is bs. I'm not sure whether or not the announcers know it's bs, but it's bs nonetheless.

Great work, once again. But hidden in that post is the bigger problem, which I think is related to usage and Pat turning down open shots he's uncomfortable taking, unless he's sure he's going to make them. I don't know if that's actually true or not, but if it is, then the problem would be that he's messing up the offense and passing it back to Lowry and DD to make a tough shot,when he should be taking that open shot. This year, he's even taken to turning down open shots in favor of driving into the paint - which looks like an adventure sometimes. I wouldn't even know where to begin to look for a stat like that (turning down a shot you should be taking), but it's something every fan can tell you happens. There's even quotes from Casey from time to time where he says Pat shouldn't be turning down so many shots.

[DanH]

Great work, once again. But hidden in that post is the bigger problem, which I think is related to usage and Pat turning down open shots he's uncomfortable taking, unless he's sure he's going to make them. I don't know if that's actually true or not, but if it is, then the problem would be that he's messing up the offense and passing it back to Lowry and DD to make a tough shot,when he should be taking that open shot. This year, he's even taken to turning down open shots in favor of driving into the paint - which looks like an adventure sometimes. I wouldn't even know where to begin to look for a stat like that (turning down a shot you should be taking), but it's something every fan can tell you happens. There's even quotes from Casey from time to time where he says Pat shouldn't be turning down so many shots.

I'm kind of hoping that as much hot air as the style change has been, if it results in one thing, I hope it's that our role players stop hesitating when open from the arc. Let it fly gents. If you are even a little open, let it fly.

[S.R.]

I'm kind of hoping that as much hot air as the style change has been, if it results in one thing, I hope it's that our role players stop hesitating when open from the arc. Let it fly gents. If you are even a little open, let it fly.

Yes. This team has not had a 3 pt gunner without a conscience - ever?

To further golden's point, the Raps have had a solid 3PT% with low attempts for a while, which could suggest they take good shots and avoid questionable ones, to a fault.

One thing the NBA has now established is that it's always a good idea for a good 3 point shooter to let 'er fly. Toronto's 3 pt role players the last while like Ross, Patterson, etc. often have appeared hesitant in-game.

[Mapko]

Nice post. Pat has been a great player for the Raptors, and the team suffered when he was injured. What got him under the bus were two factors imo:

1. Passing up (not attempting) open 3pt shots on key moments (like when we were vastly being outscored from deep by the cavs). CLE was attempting AND knocking down 3's every other possession, left-right-and-centre, every game. It was the largest 3-pt differential in NBA history in a 4-game playoff stretch. When you compared their offence to ours, pat became, deservingly or not, the "poster child" of how differently the cavs and us approached the 3pt line. He also became a living illustration of "trap DeRozan & Lowry and dare someone else to beat us, cuz they won't". Again, maybe not deservingly, he became representative of our "playoff softness", timid with our attempts.

It's not fair to judge a player on a 4-game stretch. By strict numbers, maybe that stretch wasn't even that different from what he normally is. But if that stretch is a franchise-defining playoff series against the one team you need to be beat in the East, and while we're desperately trying to even things out from deep you're hiding in the background passing up shots, that will have a big impact on how fans perceive you (disproportionately to your actual stats). I'm not saying that's fair, but if on clutch time you don't show up, people will notice.

I'm not sure this last Cle series is a much of an indicator.
Lets face, if 2Pat makes 100% of his 3pt attempts & even if he makes every 3 he gets to shoot, but passes, we still lose by double digits.
I do not have figure to back it up, but Cavs 3pt percentage has to among the highest in that series ever.
I felt that if they threw up shit, it would have gone in.