How current winning percentage will affect the rest of the season and playoff chances
I have read several threads and posts in this forum where people have tried to predict the season's W-L results for the Raptors and their chances of making the playoffs.
I believe that looking at the Raptor's upcoming schedule, although there are merits to this approach, and trying to determine what the win/loss total will be for the rest of the season is shortsighted. A playoff team should be able to win both at home (handily) and on the road regardless of opponents and schedule. I agree that sometimes the schedule will get the best of any NBA team. The Raptors were rolling and a two day break gave them time to reflect and feel good about themselves instead of having them feel desperate about their current situation. The result was to lose a winnable game(according to the level of opponent).
I think the right way to determine the number of Wins and Loses for this current Raptor's team is to look at the winning percentage since the Gay trade and use this percentage to determine how many games they will win out of the 25 remaining games.
Based on the winning percentage the Raptors have since the Gay trade (7 Wins-4 Loses = .636% Winning Percentage) the Raptors should* win a total of 16 games, finishing the season at 39 Wins and 43 Loses. Would this be enough to make it?
If we look at Philadelphia and Milwaukee they are posting .400% and .200% winning percentages respectively the past 10 games. Lets assume they continue to struggle and post .450% winning percentage (best case scenario) for the remainder of the season (25 games each), Philadelphia finishes with 34 wins and 48 loses and Milwaukee finishes with 38 wins and 42 loses.
Its obvious that the games remaining between Toronto and Milwaukee (2 more games left against each other) will and can play an important role on which team makes it to the postseason. If we were to base the outcome on winning percentage alone then the Raptors are a shoe-in for 8th and last playoff spot.
* the asterisk is there to denote that the winning percentage can be affected due to injuries to key players or the Raptor Cancer now called Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani has to be incorporated into the offence to make him trade-able at the end of the season which can affect offensive flow and chemistry (as they did against Washington).