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Thread: Indepth analysis PER vs. Salary

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Default Indepth analysis PER vs. Salary

    Okay, this isn't really that indepth and my analysis isn't that great, but sometimes it's fun to think about bang for your buck!

    Assumptions: This is obviously not the be all and end all of value analysis. PER is only 1 stat (and offensive heavy). This is just one way to determine value, and this is more an intellectual exercise than me trying to play gm or basketball guru.

    As the psychic hotline likes to remind us "For entertainment purposes only."

    I wish I knew how to do a nice table, but I don't so I'll keep it simple... if anyone wants my full spreadsheet send me a msg and i'll email it to you. Basically, the Salary/Per tells you how many PER points the player is producing for every 100,000 he is making.

    Column headings...
    1) Player name and position
    2) Current PER
    3) This year's Salary/this year's PER
    4) Average of 3 year salary/ this year's PER
    5) Rank of players this year salary/this year PER
    5) Rank of players 3 year average salary/ this year PER

    [PRE]Quincy Acy, SF 18.3 2.7519 2.0617 1 1
    Alan Anderson, SG 12.9 1.4574 1.4574 2 2
    John Lucas, PG 15.5 1.0333 1.0106 3 3
    Mickael Pietrus, SF 6.3 0.6268 0.6268 4 4
    Aaron Gray, C 8.9 0.3560 0.3482 8 5
    Kyle Lowry, PG 19.4 0.3374 0.3244 9 6
    Jonas Valanciunas, C 13.4 0.3971 0.3128 6 7
    Terrence Ross, SG 9.7 0.3784 0.2961 7 8
    Amir Johnson, PF 18.2 0.3033 0.2800 10 9
    Linas Kleiza, SF 8.4 0.1826 0.1826 12 10
    DeMar DeRozan, SG 14.3 0.4276 0.1729 5 11
    Landry Fields, SF 10.1 0.2020 0.1618 11 12
    Andrea Bargnani, PF 11.4 0.1140 0.1036 13 13
    Rudy Gay, SF† 16.4 0.0996 0.0917 14 14
    Sebastian Telfair, PG† -10.2 -0.6507 -0.6507 15 15[/PRE]

    EDIT: I am very sorry about how this table looks... when editing it the columns line up so it is somewhat legible... umm yeah... #epicfail

    At a glance we notice that for both this year and 3 year the top 6-7 spots are held by guys on 1 year deals or on rookie contracts. It's until the 7-8th spot where we get our first non-rookie on a multi-year deal... Aaron Gray, who makes less than 3 million a year.

    Here's what I found interesting...

    Demar: if you evaluate his production vs. what he's making this year (less than 4 mill) He's fifth, beating out JV at sixth who is the only other guy who gets more than 15 minutes and could be considered as part of our CORE. However, if you average out his 3 year salary he drops from 5th to 10th. Basically, he isn't worth what we are going to pay him based on what he's currently doing, and all that "hard work" he's putting in NEEDS translate into better production next season.

    Lowry: More production per dollar than any other player getting major minutes. Beating out Amir Johnson who I assumed would be the leader. In your opinion who gives better bang for your buck Lowry, or Amir?

    Linas Vs. Landry: Kleiza is averaging 18.8 minutes/game vs. Fields 21.1 and earning 4.6 mill vs. 5.0 mill, Landry is providing more production per dollar THIS YEAR vs. Kleiza, but if they both provide the same production over the next year, Kleiza is providing more value. That scares me. A lot.

    Rudy Gay & Andrea Bargnani: Gay provides even LESS value than bargs in terms of PER vs. Salary, and is worst on the team if you don't include Sebass (which i don't). I'm not saying I'm against Rudy, or that he's less valuable than bargnani but that is also cause for concern. PREDICTION if the raps don't put up a fight in the post season next year the fan base will turn on Gay.

    Have fun with it.

    †players acquired during season
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Wed Mar 6th, 2013 at 06:25 AM.
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