Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

    (Disclaimer: This is not an Andrew Wiggans thread)

    What do you say we become the worst team in the NBA? BCs desperation has left us in NBA no-mans land.:
    • Not good enough to win a playoff series
    • Unlikely to even make the playoffs
    • Still too good to not get an impactful draft pick
    • Too tied up in terms of cap space to sign a star player
    • Not enough players with trade via to improve the team via trade

    We are headed for AT LEAST 3 more years of irrelevancy as currently constructed under this strategy. This thread is about limiting our continued irrelevancy to only 3 years by aggressively tanking and trading away all current assets for terrible players/contracts and draft picks.

    Move 1:
    Trade Rudy and Landry to the Nets for Gerald Wallace, Chris Humphries and a 1st round pick in 2014
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ct86vho

    Given that money is no object for the Nets, perhaps they could even pony up some cash for a potential Wallace buy out in 2015. Rudy and Landry are both overpaid, but the Nets do this to get out of the Wallace deal and to add another “star”. Derron/JJ/Rudy/Evans/Brook. That’s a quasi-contender that King can sell to the Russian as a real contender.

    Move 2
    Trade Amir to Phoenix for Beasley and a (protected) first round pick
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=chxpgj6

    Not sure we can land their top 5 pick this year for taking Beez off their hands and giving them Amir. But if we protect it like: Top 10 (2013), Top 5 (2014), Top 5 (2015), Top 3 (2016), unprotected (2017), they might bite on the chance to ditch Beez and we’d still get a lottery pick out of it.

    Move 3
    Trade Lowry and Demar to Detroit for Jerebko, Stuckey and their (top 5 protected) 2013 first rounder
    (Note: This trade fails straight-up in the trade machine, but after the first 2 moves, it works)
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=btjas5p

    Detroit gives up a mid-lotto pick to get out of 2 bad contracts, get a good one back (Kyle) and add a pretty good young piece on the wing (Demar). Kyle and Demar are probably both better than what they’d get at 7 this draft, and it accelerates their rebuild.

    Then we bring back Grey, Anderson and Lucas. Your 2013-2014 Toronto Raptors (!!!!):

    1) Stuckey, Lucas
    2) Ross, Anderson
    3) Wallace, Beasley, Jerebko
    4) Bargnani, Humphies, Acy
    5) Valanciunas, Grey

    Plus a top 10 pick in 2013 from the Pistons (say, MCW). We could provide heavy minutes to a young lineup of MCW/Ross/Jerebko/Acy/Val. Is that bad enough to virtually guarantee a top 3 pick in 2014? I say yes. We might even get a top 3 pick in 2015 with this core. Plus, we get a team with 2 guys named Jonas!

    Then Stuckey and Hump are off the books, and Beez/Wallace/Bargs can be bought out or paid to stay home. That leaves us going into 2016 with:
    • Ross
    • Val
    • Acy
    • Detroit’s 2013 (#7)
    • Brooklyn’s late 2014 first rounder
    • Phoenix’s 2014, 2015 2016 pick (likely #6-10)
    • Our top 3 2014 pick
    • Our top 3 2015 pick
    • 2 high second round picks of our own

    We’d have cap space to fill out the roster with veteran leaders as needed, plus potentially get a star to fill whichever remaining hole is biggest.

    We would need a care taker coach for the next few years before bringing in somebody to guide the team forward – similar to the Carlisimo/Brooks handoff in Seattle/OKC (although they may have misfired with Brooks a little). PJ is available.

    Now that I’ve gone through all this, my questions for y’all are:
    1. Would you be on board with another 3-5 year rebuild if we really, truly committed to bottoming out?
    2. Do you think a massive rebuild like this is even necessary, or do you want to roll with the core as constructed?
    3. What do you think the likelihood of any/all of these moves from the other team’s perspective? Could this actually be pulled off?
    4. Do you have your own ideas of how to tank & rebuild?
    5. Do you think we could embark on a strategy like this without mortally wounding the development of any young guys (Ross/Val/etc)?
    40
    Tanker
    30.00%
    12
    Tweaker
    70.00%
    28
    Last edited by NoBan; Mon May 13, 2013, 03:24 PM.

  • #2
    Blowing it up does not necessarily mean the Raps become the worst team in the league. ATL and DEN are two teams who traded their best players and did not miss a beat.

    The Raptors need pieces that fit together and fit the direction the franchise has.

    At this point in time the pieces don't fit because all the pieces assembled were assembled to fit Bargnani and the franchise has no direction due to Colangelo's undiagnosed ADD (joke on my part but seriously to say he has been all over the place the last 5 years is no exaggeration).

    If the Raptors can send out pieces that don't fit for pieces that do while acquiring assets (prospects and picks) who is to say they drop off? I mean the reality is they won 34 games. The worst is as close as average.
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Mon May 13, 2013, 03:49 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Matt52 wrote: View Post
      ATL and DEN are two teams who traded their best players and did not miss a beat.
      Not sure our best players are likely to bring back a haul Carmelo did. We don't have the Smiff/Horford all star combo to fall back on.

      Matt52 wrote: View Post
      At this point in time the pieces don't fit because all the pieces assembled were assembled to fit Bargnani
      Agree, but I don't see how we fix this without nuking everything. Ideas?

      Matt52 wrote: View Post
      If the Raptors can send out pieces that don't fit for pieces that do while acquiring assets (prospects and picks) who is to say they drop off? I mean the reality is they won 34 games. The worst is as close as average.
      Not that it's a sure thing, but the Hollinger calculation on the overall haul is -18 wins. Thats good for the basement. Especially if we tank further by resting guys that are performing well and a tad banged up.

      Edit: I misinterpreted the last point I quoted there. But still, is "average" the goal?
      Last edited by NoBan; Mon May 13, 2013, 03:58 PM.

      Comment


      • #4
        So this is a TANK thread? Pass.

        Comment


        • #5
          The issue to blow it up is not straightforward.

          Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.

          In thinking about the current state of the Raptors today, I've been all over the map in my head. I'd love to blow it up on one hand and move forward with JV as the major building block. On the other hand a little tinkering, better coaching, and luck might yield a pretty competitive team. Staying status quo is not an option in my opinion - playing for MAYBE the 8th seed is a loser mentality which has infiltrated and permeated all aspects of the Raptor fan base but more importantly MLSE offices. When we get promotional videos on Raptors.com talking about just making the playoffs as success, my, how far we have fallen. I know you have to start somewhere but do you honestly see this team doing anything more than a first round exit without a lot of highly unlikely things happening? (I'll get to that below).



          In terms of tinkering, here is the current starting lineup:

          PG: Lowry
          SG:
          SF: Gay
          PF:
          C: JV

          That is how I feel about the starting lineup. If you can add a stretch 4 (you know, like what Bargnani is theoretically suppose to be) put DeRozan in the starting 2 guard (Christ it isn't hard to tell this team is built around #tradeBargnani). Unfortunately that does not look likely so you need a shooter/floor spacer at the 2 guard. I know many feel the blanks above should be Amir and DD but neither have shown an ability to shoot the 3 with any measure of consistency.

          Off the bench the Raptors are looking good assuming Amir is not your starting PF. The wings are Fields and Ross. Your primary back up big is Amir who can play both PF/C and plays with energy/hustle. Your secondary bigs are situational with Gray and Acy. PG is an issue but then you have an exception to address it.

          The problem really is the starting SG and PF, in my opinion. It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?


          Coaching is a major issue. The fact the Raptors are looking to bring in a young assistant coach to 'relate' to players is a concern - a big concern. Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else. 22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league. I've seen a lot of references to square pegs and round holes in the media of late - not hard to tell they hang out around here, eh? - and it is true. It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defense.


          The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.




          As I said in another post/thread, the Raptors remain where they have been for years: hoping guys become what they are not (credit to the person who posted Bautista comments earlier). This is what Raptor fans who are hoping for success with the current core are banking on or hoping for:

          - DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
          - Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
          - Lowry returns to Houston form,
          - JV is on the track to all star status,
          - Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
          - Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
          - veteran backup PG obtained,
          - Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
          - Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.



          To break it down in its simplest terms, not blowing it up involves:

          - Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF
          - Use MLE to get a backup PG
          - Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute
          - Fields getting his shot back
          - Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.

          Comment


          • #6
            I dont really get it. You want to blow it up so we're not irrelevent for 3 years, but even if we suck and get the #1 3 years in a row we'll still suck.

            I think Matt52 nailed it. Just wait it out slowly and trade away parts that dont fit as we go along. In 3 years we're Clear of Fields, Bargnani, Gay, Lowry even Jonhson contracts. The Only thing to watch out for is Colangelo type extensions for players who could become really good but most likely wont.

            I hope we never trade a draft pick away again for the next 3 years. Because of this whole season, lets be honest the greatest moments came watching Ed Davis explode, JV improve every week, T Ross winning the Dunk contest. Even if you loose watching your team grow is Fun. Watching a GM destroy your Team looking everywhere for a shortcut, just kills any enthusiasm.

            I have no expectations for this team going into next season, and i don't want Colangelo back, because i don't want young assets traded away for someone overrated or past his prime to be 7th seed.

            Watching if Lowry-Derozan-Gay can grow together is gonna my entertainment next season, and if they cant, so what ? Lowry and Gay are gonna expire, lets just not extend them for 12 Mil a year on October 31st

            Blowing it up cant happen right now, because the only players who could yield a lottery pick are the only players worth watching. Any lottery team is gonna ask for JV, why would you trade him ? so you can take a risk to draft a player who might turn out like him ? Maybe Derozan with someone else (Lowry,Gay, Ross, Johnson) can get a lottery pick, but is that player really gonna be that good to be worth both in his first 2 years ?

            Comment


            • #7
              Please God no...

              I don't think they should blow it up. I think they should move Bargnani and grow this team going forward. They need to get creative. They need someone here with fresh ideas but which don't include blowing it up. As such they should shoot for the playoffs while operating responsibly. Then in a couple years let's revisit this idea based on how far they've come(when Gay's expiring deal is bigtime trade bait).

              I'd like to see them make smaller moves for diamonds in the rough in the meantime.

              JV and Gay are two really good pieces in the meantime. I think they have a shot at the playoffs next year.

              We've become so used to a loser that we crave it and need to find long term solutions to guarantee it. (just kidding )

              Comment


              • #8
                Apollo wrote: View Post
                I don't think they should blow it up. I think they should move Bargnani and grow this team going forward. They need to get creative. They need someone here with fresh ideas but which don't include blowing it up. As such they should shoot for the playoffs while operating responsibly. Then in a couple years let's revisit this idea based on how far they've come(when Gay's expiring deal is bigtime trade bait).

                I'd like to see them make smaller moves for diamonds in the rough in the meantime.

                JV and Gay are two really good pieces in the meantime. I think they have a shot at the playoffs next year.

                We've become so used to a loser that we crave it and need to find long term solutions to guarantee it. (just kidding )

                Do you have any offerings as to what you mean by creativity? I'm not sure what you mean by this.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Groundhog Day

                  They need to inject this front office with new ideas.

                  They need people in there who are looking ahead to what will work and not what is working right now. The league is so trendy but those who bandwagon jump usually don't see any success.

                  I would like to see some house cleaning if it makes sense. I'd like to hear tell of some new scouts, young blood that's hungry to make a name for themselves.

                  Honestly, I'm bored with the Raptors and I'm sick of being told again and again "this time it's gonna be different". Well show me.

                  Why is Wayne Embre still associated with this team? What good has come from Maurizio Gherardini? Yet these are the kind of guys who tend to hang around era to era with this team. How many GM's is Wayne going to watch get axed? I want to see people held accountable for a change instead of playing musical chairs on the top deck.

                  I kind of feel like the Raptors are caught in a painful loop. Almost as though it's a five year "groundhog day":

                  Last edited by Apollo; Mon May 13, 2013, 09:48 PM. Reason: more to say

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'm okay with building around the core, but whoever the GM is needs to be ruthless when negotiating extensions and new contracts. If Gay isn't willing to resign at a level that makes him a value contract, he's gone. Guys like Johnson and Lowry shouldn't expect much of a raise when they become FA's. Best case scenario, in 2015 you've got a good group of young players highlighted by a near all-star JV and some star players on decent contracts. Worst case scenario, you've preserved loads of cap space and nearly $50 million in expiring contracts.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      do what u gotta do, but leave amir out of it
                      in masai we trust

                      water covers 98% of the earth, Mitchell Robinson covers the other 2%

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Matt52 wrote: View Post
                        The issue to blow it up is not straightforward.

                        Blowing it up would be an option before the trade deadline if things go really bad but at that point you might not be getting anything near fair value on your assets and you are likely in the position you are because said assets are not performing up to potential.

                        In thinking about the current state of the Raptors today, I've been all over the map in my head. I'd love to blow it up on one hand and move forward with JV as the major building block. On the other hand a little tinkering, better coaching, and luck might yield a pretty competitive team. Staying status quo is not an option in my opinion - playing for MAYBE the 8th seed is a loser mentality which has infiltrated and permeated all aspects of the Raptor fan base but more importantly MLSE offices. When we get promotional videos on Raptors.com talking about just making the playoffs as success, my, how far we have fallen. I know you have to start somewhere but do you honestly see this team doing anything more than a first round exit without a lot of highly unlikely things happening? (I'll get to that below).



                        In terms of tinkering, here is the current starting lineup:

                        PG: Lowry
                        SG:
                        SF: Gay
                        PF:
                        C: JV

                        That is how I feel about the starting lineup. If you can add a stretch 4 (you know, like what Bargnani is theoretically suppose to be) put DeRozan in the starting 2 guard (Christ it isn't hard to tell this team is built around #tradeBargnani). Unfortunately that does not look likely so you need a shooter/floor spacer at the 2 guard. I know many feel the blanks above should be Amir and DD but neither have shown an ability to shoot the 3 with any measure of consistency.

                        Off the bench the Raptors are looking good assuming Amir is not your starting PF. The wings are Fields and Ross. Your primary back up big is Amir who can play both PF/C and plays with energy/hustle. Your secondary bigs are situational with Gray and Acy. PG is an issue but then you have an exception to address it.

                        The problem really is the starting SG and PF, in my opinion. It needs to be addressed but how do you address it when your trade chips are one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani?


                        Coaching is a major issue. The fact the Raptors are looking to bring in a young assistant coach to 'relate' to players is a concern - a big concern. Casey should coach to his strengths and hand the offensive reigns over to someone else. 22ft jump shot after jump shot is bush league. I've seen a lot of references to square pegs and round holes in the media of late - not hard to tell they hang out around here, eh? - and it is true. It appears to me that Casey has been inflexible in working with the talent in Toronto. It is on him to maximize his talent. ISO and 22ft jump shots are not cutting it nor is bottom third defense.


                        The luck the Raptors need to be anything more than an 8th seed is guys overachieving, a major coup in a trade, and finding absolute bargains on minimum contracts (Jimmy Butler/productive young players on rookie deals, Danny Green type contracts, Chandler Parsons type contracts - imagine a healthy Fields with a 3 point shot making $2M - that is what I refer to). With so much money tied up in inefficient players (Gay, DeRozan, Bargnani), the Raptors need a real homerun or two from the bargain bin.




                        As I said in another post/thread, the Raptors remain where they have been for years: hoping guys become what they are not (credit to the person who posted Bautista comments earlier). This is what Raptor fans who are hoping for success with the current core are banking on or hoping for:

                        - DD and Gay co-exist with both developing a consistent 3 point shot,
                        - Fields regains his 3pt stroke,
                        - Lowry returns to Houston form,
                        - JV is on the track to all star status,
                        - Bargnani finally puts it all together as he showed possible for about 18 games in 2011-12,
                        - Acy becomes a solid rotational player,
                        - veteran backup PG obtained,
                        - Ross becomes the 3 and D 6th man of the year candidate,
                        - Casey is able to return to his defensive, grind it out ways while implementing an offensive that does not rely predominantly on set shots.



                        To break it down in its simplest terms, not blowing it up involves:

                        - Turn one of DeRozan/Ross and Bargnani in to a starting PF
                        - Use MLE to get a backup PG
                        - Find a bargain on a minimum contract who can contribute
                        - Fields getting his shot back
                        - Casey getting back to what he does best (defense) and changing the offense to incorporate more ball/player movement.
                        Now, THIS, is what I would like to see.

                        EDIT: As long as Amir, Lowry, Gay, Fields, JV, and Acy stay.
                        Twitter: @ReubenJRD • NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          ReubenJRD wrote: View Post
                          Now, THIS, is what I would like to see.

                          EDIT: As long as Amir, Lowry, Gay, Fields, JV, and Acy stay.
                          Fields?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Rapstor4Life wrote: View Post
                            Fields?
                            He's going to be a key part in the rotation next season. Like it or not

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Even the most steadfast supporters of this current Raptors team seem to admit that they're capped at a 6-8 seed for the next two seasons, and that's assuming a bunch of things go their way. The playoffs are far from a guarantee next season and yet the Raptors have no first round pick, are pushed to the luxury tax, and have very little in terms of moveable assets to upgrade the team via trade. Simply put, they are constructed as a "win now" team... minus the winning part.

                              Rather than waiting two seasons of average results to elapse, and then beginning a rebuild, I would fully support tearing this thing down immediately if I thought a capable basketball mind was behind the process. The benefits of doing it now instead of waiting would be: you get to take advantage of a couple of great drafts in 2014/15, and you don't waste any of the prime or near-prime of JV in a couple years time.

                              Here's my plan. Let's go tanking!

                              Raptors trade Andrea Bargnani and the Sacramento Kings 2014 2nd round pick to the Charlotte Bobcats for Ben Gordon.
                              Both players are stealing money at this point, but the Bobcats pick up a draft pick that is likely to be in the 30's for taking on another year of bad contract. From their perspective, they rid themselves of the Gordon headache and don't really lose anything basketball wise since they're actively trying to suck anyway.

                              Raptors trade Rudy Gay & Linus Kleiza to the Los Angeles Lakers for Pau Gasol, who is immediately waived by the Raptors
                              Gasol would have helped the Raptors win games next season, and we don't want that. We have however carved out a $20 million dollar chunk of cap space for the summer of 2014 with this move though. The Lakers get pretty good value back for Pau as Gay can perform a poor man's Kobe Bryant impression while he battles back. They can also sell the move to Dwight as proof that they are still aiming to compete right now.

                              Raptors trade DeRozan to Minnesota for Brandon Roy & Luke Ridnour
                              Raps get the corpse of Brandon Roy (and his expiring deal) and the definition of a stop gap point guard that is also expiring in the summer of 2014. T-Wolves get a starting shooting guard at the cost of cap flexibility exclusively.

                              Raptors trade Kyle Lowry to the Milwaukee Bucks for their 2014 1st round pick (top 7 protected)
                              Rather than losing Lowry in free agency next summer, or being strong-armed into extending him for a big pricetag when few seem to be completely sold on the guy, the Raps pick up another first rounder in a loaded draft.

                              2013-14 Roster:
                              Ridnour
                              Ross
                              Fields
                              A. Johnson
                              JV

                              Bench:
                              Gordon
                              Acy
                              JL3
                              Gray
                              Anderson (Re-signed to a 2-year/ $4 million dollar contract this summer)
                              Random high-character veteran making peanuts A
                              Random high-character veteran making peanuts B

                              Throw JV/Ross/Acy out there as much as possible and get the lumps out of the way. We've also maintained two high character guys in Johnson & Fields who should be able to provide some perspective throughout all the losing. We also suck, which is the whole point.

                              2014 expiring contracts:
                              Gasol ($20 million)
                              Roy ($5 million)
                              Ridnour ($4 million)
                              Gordon ($12 million)
                              Lucas ($2 million)
                              Gray ($2 million)

                              Next summer we go into the draft with our own pick (good chance to be top 5 with this roster), the Bucks pick (let's say it's in the 10-18 range), and over $40 million dollars of cap room. Stink the place out for one more season and add another top prospect in 2015 and all of a sudden we have a very good young core with a glut of cap space.
                              Last edited by Fully; Tue May 14, 2013, 11:27 AM.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X