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Rebuild or Re-tool? (thread merge in post #358)

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  • It really depends on what the goal is. Do you want to win a championship or just be a team that makes the playoffs.

    If making the playoffs is the end game, then tanking is not necessary, we can re-tool the roster make some key trades or free-agent signings and get that 4th- 8th seed in the East.

    However, if the goal is to win a championship, I believe it is absolutely necessary to tank. Here is why. Tanking ensures a greater chance at drafting future super-stars (granted it is just a "chance") and at the end of the day you need super-stars to win or rather, MVPs. Going back to the last 30 years, only 3 teams (Detroit 89,90, 2003) have won without a soon to be MVP, current, or past MVP. At the end of the day, history has shown that you need extraordinary players to win an NBA championship. Now there have been some teams that have been able to sign MVPs via free agency or through trades (Sixers- Moses Malone, Lakers-Kareem Shaq, Miami- Shaq Lebron), however, right now I don't believe Toronto has developed the sort of reputation to acquire MVP type talent. This is why I believe if the goal is to win a championship, we have to tank and hope to draft that future MVP.

    Comment


    • Can't they do both?

      Is it possible for Toronto to take other team's shit for picks? I mean the real shit of the shit. I mean like Tyrus Thomas shit or Drew Gooden shit or Michael Beasley shit.

      How much dead cap space is Toronto willing to take on? In other words, is Bell/Rogers really committed to spending/wasting money to win longer term?

      If teams are not willing to trade their picks outright (which is highly possible given hype for 2014 draft) well why not play the "league doormat" card and give Toronto the right to swap picks (Sacramento/Charlotte/Phoenix)?

      Is Ujiri able to look around the league at next year rosters and see which team is thinking they will be better than they truly are? I can't help but think about Milwaukee - swap or obtain their pick.

      Is there a team looking to unload a contract(s) now or this summer to make a move in this year's free agency and would be willing to sacrifice a 2014 pick to do it?

      Any of these players they obtain don't actually have to play. I mean if you think about it, the Raptors had $15M in deadweight last year in Kleiza and Bargnani. This upcoming season they are going to have nearly $14M in expiring contracts (Gray, Lowry, Kleiza). Then you have a $9.5M piece like DeRozan that an argument can be made is still young and with upside.



      I think the Raptors have the makings for a competitive team next season (competitive does not guarantee playoffs, I mean they might actually play meaningful games in late March/April). They have solid PG-SF-C scoring (Lowry-Gay-JV). They have 2 solid glue guys off the bench or who could start, one big/one wing (Amir/Fields). They have a possible 3 and D prospect in Ross. They have a garbage, hustler in Acy. They have a huge stiff in Gray. If they can get some value signings via the MLE (remember MLE can be broken down, doesn't have to be used on one player) or minimum contract things might be pretty competitive. The key for Toronto is to get some value contracts. Has Colangelo ever signed a value contract since Parker and Garbo?


      I think if the Raptors/Bell/Rogers are willing to take shell out millions on dead weight, they can get the best of both the tanking and competing worlds.

      Comment


      • Is there no option for organic growth?

        Comment


        • Marz wrote: View Post
          Is there no option for organic growth?
          Organic growth is an option with JV on our team... but with this lineup of players the ceiling is very visible. A championship is not in sight.

          Comment


          • Al Jefferson is an all-star calibre player in this league. I think he's a better player than Chris Bosh actually. Jefferson's not getting a lot of recognition that he deserves because he's played on bad teams.

            Jefferson's numbers the last 7 years:

            06/07 season 16ppg 11rpg
            07/08 season 21ppg 11rpg
            08/09 season 23ppg 11rpg
            09/10 seson 17ppg 9rpg
            10/11 season 18ppg 9rpg
            11/12 season 19ppg 9rpg
            12/13 season 17ppg 9rpg

            Anyway, i'm starting to warm up in the idea of 'tanking'. Keep only JV and Ross. Very risky i know but the 2014 draft is so deep that even if you miss out on Wiggins, there's still Parker, Randle, Vonleh etc.

            Like seiz here said, if the goal is to win a championship and sustain long term success i think you have to tank specially when you look at the players that will be available in the 2014 draft. UNLESS you can trade for or sign an all-star caliber player now like an Al Jefferson.
            Last edited by The Great One; Tue Jun 4, 2013, 08:18 PM.
            Mamba Mentality

            Comment


            • Matt52 wrote: View Post
              Can't they do both?

              Is it possible for Toronto to take other team's shit for picks? I mean the real shit of the shit. I mean like Tyrus Thomas shit or Drew Gooden shit or Michael Beasley shit.

              How much dead cap space is Toronto willing to take on? In other words, is Bell/Rogers really committed to spending/wasting money to win longer term?

              If teams are not willing to trade their picks outright (which is highly possible given hype for 2014 draft) well why not play the "league doormat" card and give Toronto the right to swap picks (Sacramento/Charlotte/Phoenix)?

              Is Ujiri able to look around the league at next year rosters and see which team is thinking they will be better than they truly are? I can't help but think about Milwaukee - swap or obtain their pick.

              Is there a team looking to unload a contract(s) now or this summer to make a move in this year's free agency and would be willing to sacrifice a 2014 pick to do it?

              Any of these players they obtain don't actually have to play. I mean if you think about it, the Raptors had $15M in deadweight last year in Kleiza and Bargnani. This upcoming season they are going to have nearly $14M in expiring contracts (Gray, Lowry, Kleiza). Then you have a $9.5M piece like DeRozan that an argument can be made is still young and with upside.



              I think the Raptors have the makings for a competitive team next season (competitive does not guarantee playoffs, I mean they might actually play meaningful games in late March/April). They have solid PG-SF-C scoring (Lowry-Gay-JV). They have 2 solid glue guys off the bench or who could start, one big/one wing (Amir/Fields). They have a possible 3 and D prospect in Ross. They have a garbage, hustler in Acy. They have a huge stiff in Gray. If they can get some value signings via the MLE (remember MLE can be broken down, doesn't have to be used on one player) or minimum contract things might be pretty competitive. The key for Toronto is to get some value contracts. Has Colangelo ever signed a value contract since Parker and Garbo?


              I think if the Raptors/Bell/Rogers are willing to take shell out millions on dead weight, they can get the best of both the tanking and competing worlds.
              So continuing with this idea....

              I know this is not a real popular idea with some people, but sometimes you need to make sacrifices to get to where you want to go.

              Trade 1:
              DeRozan to Utah for #14 and a TPE.

              Trade 2:
              Three team deal with Golden State and Dallas.

              Marion and bargnani to GSW.
              #13, 2014 GSW 1st pick, biedrins, jefferson to Toronto

              Raps use TPE to take BIedrins. Where did TPE come from? DeRozan.

              Trade 3:
              Jefferson to Charlotte for Tyrus Thomas, Ramon Sessions, 2014 Detroit protected pick (1-8)

              Trade 4:
              Biedrins to Milwaukee for Gooden, Mbah a Moute, 2014 pick


              So in being competitive, Raptors have this lineup and still the MLE to get more shooters at SG and SF (:

              PG: Lowry, Sessions
              SG: Fields, Ross
              SF: Gay, Mbah a Moute, Kleiza
              PF: Amir, Gooden, Acy, Thomas
              C: JV, Gray


              .... and in rebuilding:

              Expiring contracts in 2014: Lowry, Sessions, Kleiza, Gray (~$17M)
              Expiring contracts in 2015: Fields, Gay, Mbah a Moute, Amir, Gooden, Thomas (~$50M)

              2013 draft picks: #13, #14
              2014: own, Detroit (1-8 protected), Milwaukee




              Probably, no, definitely unlikely, but just trying to give an indication of what I meant about having both worlds happening simultaneously.

              Comment


              • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                So continuing with this idea....

                I know this is not a real popular idea with some people, but sometimes you need to make sacrifices to get to where you want to go.

                Trade 1:
                DeRozan to Utah for #14 and a TPE.

                Trade 2:
                Three team deal with Golden State and Dallas.

                Marion and bargnani to GSW.
                #13, 2014 GSW 1st pick, biedrins, jefferson to Toronto

                Raps use TPE to take BIedrins. Where did TPE come from? DeRozan.

                Trade 3:
                Jefferson to Charlotte for Tyrus Thomas, Ramon Sessions, 2014 Detroit protected pick (1-8)

                Trade 4:
                Biedrins to Milwaukee for Gooden, Mbah a Moute, 2014 pick


                So in being competitive, Raptors have this lineup and still the MLE to get more shooters at SG and SF (:

                PG: Lowry, Sessions
                SG: Fields, Ross
                SF: Gay, Mbah a Moute, Kleiza
                PF: Amir, Gooden, Acy, Thomas
                C: JV, Gray


                .... and in rebuilding:

                Expiring contracts in 2014: Lowry, Sessions, Kleiza, Gray (~$17M)
                Expiring contracts in 2015: Fields, Gay, Mbah a Moute, Amir, Gooden, Thomas (~$50M)

                2013 draft picks: #13, #14
                2014: own, Detroit (1-8 protected), Milwaukee




                Probably, no, definitely unlikely, but just trying to give an indication of what I meant about having both worlds happening simultaneously.
                Ok, first off, I really hate this kind of idea in general. Beyond that, I don't have a problem, in theory, with this approach for Toronto. So keeping in line with the idea, here are my issues...

                -Your second trade really confuses me.....so I'm laying it out again....
                GSW gets: Marion and Bargnani
                Toronto gets: picks, Jefferson and Biedrins
                Dallas gets: ??? what exactly? Are they just getting the DeMar TPE flipped to them?

                -In both your third and fourth trades, I'm not sure you get that haul from either team. Charlotte...mmmaybe. No indication they're being run any better. So maybe you could get Sessions and a pick if you give them relief and take back Thomas' awful deal. Milwaukee? I don't buy it. They won't give up Mbah a Moute and a first round pick just to shed Gooden.

                Comment


                • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                  So in being competitive, Raptors have this lineup and still the MLE to get more shooters at SG and SF (:

                  PG: Lowry, Sessions
                  SG: Fields, Ross
                  SF: Gay, Mbah a Moute, Kleiza
                  PF: Amir, Gooden, Acy, Thomas
                  C: JV, Gray
                  Sorry Matt but I'm not feeling it. I think they can do better than that for DeRozan.

                  The two teen picks could be used to leverage their way up to take their guy if need be though.

                  Comment


                  • Among the 3 options Tim Leiweke discussed, I would like to see the Raptors venture into the 3rd option, which is essentially a combination of both -- attempt to be competitive now while at the same time develop end of the bench talent slowly. I'm pleased that Ujiri, being a former scout, sees the value in having a great scouting system, an excellent development program & a shared vision between the coaches and management.

                    What I like the most from Ujiri is his philosophy of "we can grow our players here" -- which is exactly what you need to do as a franchise. For example, Oklahoma City has Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, etc. that they are grooming slowly via the D-League or behind their stars. These types of assets always hold value in the open market. San Antonio has the same approach. They are patient in terms of developing their bench guys in hopes to have them ready for the big league OR trade them for other assets.

                    In 3 years with the Nuggets, Ujiri managed to re-tool on the go, have his team competing in the playoffs & have a ton of young assets to groom. I don't see why he can't do the same here in Toronto where we have good pieces (as much as we like to downplay our roster).

                    Imagine, instead of giving away a 2nd rounder to Phoenix for Bassy, we plugged in a young point guard as our third stringer -- who has been under a rigorous development program. These are the scenarios I expect from the Raptors with Ujiri spear-heading the charge.
                    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

                    -- Charles Barkley

                    Comment


                    • I'm not sure Matt was advocating these specific trades as much as he was trying to illustrate how you could both rebuild and be competitive, I don't think the specific trades matter so much as people understand the concept
                      Last edited by thead; Wed Jun 5, 2013, 12:49 PM.
                      For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

                      Comment


                      • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                        So continuing with this idea....

                        I know this is not a real popular idea with some people, but sometimes you need to make sacrifices to get to where you want to go.

                        Trade 1:
                        DeRozan to Utah for #14 and a TPE.

                        Trade 2:
                        Three team deal with Golden State and Dallas.

                        Marion and bargnani to GSW.
                        #13, 2014 GSW 1st pick, biedrins, jefferson to Toronto

                        Raps use TPE to take BIedrins. Where did TPE come from? DeRozan.

                        Trade 3:
                        Jefferson to Charlotte for Tyrus Thomas, Ramon Sessions, 2014 Detroit protected pick (1-8)

                        Trade 4:
                        Biedrins to Milwaukee for Gooden, Mbah a Moute, 2014 pick


                        So in being competitive, Raptors have this lineup and still the MLE to get more shooters at SG and SF (:

                        PG: Lowry, Sessions
                        SG: Fields, Ross
                        SF: Gay, Mbah a Moute, Kleiza
                        PF: Amir, Gooden, Acy, Thomas
                        C: JV, Gray


                        .... and in rebuilding:

                        Expiring contracts in 2014: Lowry, Sessions, Kleiza, Gray (~$17M)
                        Expiring contracts in 2015: Fields, Gay, Mbah a Moute, Amir, Gooden, Thomas (~$50M)

                        2013 draft picks: #13, #14
                        2014: own, Detroit (1-8 protected), Milwaukee




                        Probably, no, definitely unlikely, but just trying to give an indication of what I meant about having both worlds happening simultaneously.
                        I have almost the same line-up in 2K13
                        “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

                        -- Charles Barkley

                        Comment


                        • thead wrote: View Post
                          I'm not sure Matt was advocating this specific trades as much as he was trying to illustrate how you could both rebuild and be competitive, I don't think the specific trades matter so much as people understand the concept
                          You are a scholar and a gentleman, sir.

                          Comment


                          • white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                            Ok, first off, I really hate this kind of idea in general. Beyond that, I don't have a problem, in theory, with this approach for Toronto. So keeping in line with the idea, here are my issues...

                            -Your second trade really confuses me.....so I'm laying it out again....
                            GSW gets: Marion and Bargnani
                            Toronto gets: picks, Jefferson and Biedrins
                            Dallas gets: ??? what exactly? Are they just getting the DeMar TPE flipped to them?

                            -In both your third and fourth trades, I'm not sure you get that haul from either team. Charlotte...mmmaybe. No indication they're being run any better. So maybe you could get Sessions and a pick if you give them relief and take back Thomas' awful deal. Milwaukee? I don't buy it. They won't give up Mbah a Moute and a first round pick just to shed Gooden.
                            Dallas shed Marion for free agency this summer. It has been rumoured for weeks.

                            Comment


                            • Apollo wrote: View Post
                              Sorry Matt but I'm not feeling it. I think they can do better than that for DeRozan.

                              The two teen picks could be used to leverage their way up to take their guy if need be though.
                              Forget the details and focus on the concept.

                              Regarding DD, yes, they can if they are willing to take back salary. For the sake of the concept I laid out, the goal was to shed salary/gain TPE to get more picks.

                              Comment


                              • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                                So continuing with this idea....

                                I know this is not a real popular idea with some people, but sometimes you need to make sacrifices to get to where you want to go.

                                Trade 1:
                                DeRozan to Utah for #14 and a TPE.

                                Trade 2:
                                Three team deal with Golden State and Dallas.

                                Marion and bargnani to GSW.
                                #13, 2014 GSW 1st pick, biedrins, jefferson to Toronto

                                Raps use TPE to take BIedrins. Where did TPE come from? DeRozan.

                                Trade 3:
                                Jefferson to Charlotte for Tyrus Thomas, Ramon Sessions, 2014 Detroit protected pick (1-8)

                                Trade 4:
                                Biedrins to Milwaukee for Gooden, Mbah a Moute, 2014 pick


                                So in being competitive, Raptors have this lineup and still the MLE to get more shooters at SG and SF (:

                                PG: Lowry, Sessions
                                SG: Fields, Ross
                                SF: Gay, Mbah a Moute, Kleiza
                                PF: Amir, Gooden, Acy, Thomas
                                C: JV, Gray


                                .... and in rebuilding:

                                Expiring contracts in 2014: Lowry, Sessions, Kleiza, Gray (~$17M)
                                Expiring contracts in 2015: Fields, Gay, Mbah a Moute, Amir, Gooden, Thomas (~$50M)

                                2013 draft picks: #13, #14
                                2014: own, Detroit (1-8 protected), Milwaukee




                                Probably, no, definitely unlikely, but just trying to give an indication of what I meant about having both worlds happening simultaneously.
                                I know you said not to get caught up in the details but there's no way Golden State is giving up their two big expiring contracts (Biedrins & RJ) AND a first rounder just to take Bargnani's corpse off of the Raptors hands. Marion would be a decent tool for them but I don't think they're giving up their financial freedom next summer just to land him. With Bogut/Biedrins/Jefferson expiring in 2014 they will be in a position to sign a max level player outright to add to the Curry/Thompson/Barnes/Lee core.

                                As far as the concept in general, I don't like the idea of hedging between rebuilding and winning now. That's a recipe for a treadmill team. I think you are underestimating what the Raptors would have to give up to walk away with 4 first rounders (including 3 potential lottery picks) over the next two drafts, and a ton of cap space too. It would definitely cost more than just DeRozan and Bargnani, which would weaken the potential to compete now, which would put us back in that no man's land where we're not drafting in the top 5 but not really a playoff contender either. Sounds like a BC plan.

                                I'm also unclear about you listing guys like Lowry, Gay and Amir as expiring contracts that will give the team cap space over the next two years. If you plan on using the cap space rather than re-signing them then a) that's a huge glut of talent leaving the roster all at once = rebuild time and b) I don't know why you wouldn't just trade them now, get even more picks/prospects back and start a true rebuild process now and in a proper fashion. And if you do plan on re-signing them, then they really do not represent cap space at all. In fact, a couple of those players will likely be due for raises.

                                I've said it before and I will say it again: if we "stay the course" with the current core, we are staring down a rebuild in two years time anyway. Do it properly now and you don't waste two years of a cheap JV entering his prime, plus you get to take advantage of an awesome draft in 2014.
                                Last edited by Fully; Wed Jun 5, 2013, 10:44 AM.

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