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Ujiri is trying to get in the draft, who you want?

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  • tkfu wrote: View Post
    I disagree with this reasoning. Here are the NBA minimum salaries, which depend on how many years of experience they have:

    R $490,180
    1 $788,872
    2 $884,293
    3 $916,099
    4 $947,907

    And here's the rookie scale for the #30 pick this year:

    R $880,600
    1 $920,200
    2 $959,800 (team option)
    3 $1,732,439 (team option)
    4 $2,598,658 (qualifying offer)

    (For cap boffins: the amounts listed here are actually 120% of the rookie scale, because that's what almost all rookies sign for. It could theoretically be as little as 80% of scale, or two thirds of what I've listed in the table, though I believe it'd still have to be at least the minimum.)

    So a late first round draft pick costs almost exactly the same amount as a second round pick on a minimum deal, only has two years guaranteed, AND is stuck with the rookie scale. To top it off, if you like the guy you can keep him for four years! Second round picks virtually never sign deals longer than 3 years, with 2 years being the most common, and they get to negotiate their own contracts (c.f. Nikola Pekovic, who managed to get 3 years, $13.5 million--that's more than the 3rd overall pick gets!). And generally, you want to take a look at your draft pick for at least a season before deciding he's not even worth minimum wage, so the advantage from not guaranteeing the contract is that you get to dump one year of minimum salary contract. Big effin' deal.

    So, if you draft a guy at #31 instead of #30, you're getting him locked up for 2 fewer years, you have much less flexibility in retaining the player, and you're only saving, at best, one year of minimum salary. Worst case, i.e. with a euro player or someone who's got offers from euro clubs (hint: this includes most top 60 NBA prospects if they want it), they've got leverage to demand a higher salary and guaranteed years anyway, and you actually end up paying them more, with more guaranteed years, than you would have paid the first round guy.

    edited to add: The exception to this rule is if you're drafting a Euro guy who's already making 2 or 3 times what the late-1st rookie scale pays, and more so if he's got a buyout. Then you might want the flexibility to negotiate a bigger contract. (If Ricky Rubio slipped to #30 in some bizarro universe, he would have never come over, because his $8.2 million buyout would cost him twice as much as he'd make in his first 4 years--he'd be going into debt $1 million per year instead of getting paid!) But that has nothing to do with saving money, or guaranteed vs. non-guaranteed.
    You're missing the forest through the trees. Most likely because the way the Raps have used the 2nd round poorly. It's real simple. Teams don't have to sign a second round signee. They can simply hold on to the player's rights and tell them to go abroad to get better. That's where you save money, by waiting for them to develop before you see that rookie level contract. Raptors have ties to at least 2 high level teams in Europe (JVs team and Geradini's) yet they've never taken advantage of these relationships...

    At the back of this draft's first round, playoff teams want assets but don't have the time to develop players. That's why there is value moving to the 2nd round, hold a players rights and gently recommend that they go somewhere to develop their game. That's the benefit. Sort of how Bonner was told to polish his game in Europe for a year back when the Raptors drafted him in the 2nd round. Basically, if it's used properly the 2nd round becomes a potential "Euro-stash" for all players. Obviously a big fat $0 is a powerful cap tool.

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    • blackjitsu wrote: View Post
      It's real simple. Teams don't have to sign a second round signee. They can simply hold on to the player's rights and tell them to go abroad to get better. That's where you save money, by waiting for them to develop before you see that rookie level contract.
      You can do the exact same thing with a first round pick, and all it takes to get the player's cap number off your books is a letter to the league office declaring that they don't intend to play in the NBA this season. There is no requirement under the CBA to offer a contract to a player you have drafted.

      The risk, of course, is that the player takes it as a slap in the face, and never signs with you, instead staying in Europe. But where the player is drafted has no bearing on that risk.

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      • tkfu wrote: View Post
        You can do the exact same thing with a first round pick, and all it takes to get the player's cap number off your books is a letter to the league office declaring that they don't intend to play in the NBA this season. There is no requirement under the CBA to offer a contract to a player you have drafted.

        The risk, of course, is that the player takes it as a slap in the face, and never signs with you, instead staying in Europe. But where the player is drafted has no bearing on that risk.
        No you can't. I disagree with your interpretation of the CBA. It's called a guaranteed contract for a reason. The exception is for players under contract in other leagues who have buyout clauses, otherwise, you cannot refuse to sign a first round draft pick.

        If a kid who opted out of NCAA eligibility was drafted in the first round the team that signed him would be obligated to offer him a contract. The player, and the players union would have grounds for a massive lawsuit if they were refused. However, if the same kid was drafted in the second round the team that selected him simply holds the rights to negotiate with the player if said player wishes to join the NBA. As that stands, if used properly, the second round can be used to gather asset rights.

        The last point is why I hated BC. He would sign players years away from developing in the second round for no reason, forcing the Raptors to spend time on players when it would have been better to spend that time and money on their first round picks. It's poor asset management.

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        • blackjitsu wrote: View Post
          No you can't. I disagree with your interpretation of the CBA. It's called a guaranteed contract for a reason. The exception is for players under contract in other leagues who have buyout clauses, otherwise, you cannot refuse to sign a first round draft pick.

          If a kid who opted out of NCAA eligibility was drafted in the first round the team that signed him would be obligated to offer him a contract. The player, and the players union would have grounds for a massive lawsuit if they were refused. However, if the same kid was drafted in the second round the team that selected him simply holds the rights to negotiate with the player if said player wishes to join the NBA. As that stands, if used properly, the second round can be used to gather asset rights.

          The last point is why I hated BC. He would sign players years away from developing in the second round for no reason, forcing the Raptors to spend time on players when it would have been better to spend that time and money on their first round picks. It's poor asset management.
          No lawsuit. Team would lose rights.

          A first round pick has the option to play or stay away. Team cannot say you can't come play with us. Usually first round picks who don't come over right away have contract issues or it is mutually agreed they season in Europe.

          If after 3 years they still have not signed rookie deal then the team has to sign using cap space, exception, or minimum contract. .... I think.

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          • Matt52 wrote: View Post
            No lawsuit. Team would lose rights.

            A first round pick has the option to play or stay away. Team cannot say you can't come play with us. Usually first round picks who don't come over right away have contract issues or it is mutually agreed they season in Europe.

            If after 3 years they still have not signed rookie deal then the team has to sign using cap space, exception, or minimum contract. .... I think.
            What I highlighted is what I'm talking about. I'm not talking about Euro players. Collegiate kids who give up there rights to play in the NCAA who are drafted in the second round are not required to be signed. That's why those contracts are considered non-guaranteed. Am I wrong in saying that?

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            • blackjitsu wrote: View Post
              What I highlighted is what I'm talking about. I'm not talking about Euro players. Collegiate kids who give up there rights to play in the NCAA who are drafted in the second round are not required to be signed. That's why those contracts are considered non-guaranteed. Am I wrong in saying that?
              Nope.

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              • ceez wrote: View Post
                question, have the raptors worked out anyone?
                Why would any prospects work out for the Raptors? they don't have a pick!!
                Mamba Mentality

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                • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                  No lawsuit. Team would lose rights.

                  A first round pick has the option to play or stay away. Team cannot say you can't come play with us. Usually first round picks who don't come over right away have contract issues or it is mutually agreed they season in Europe.

                  If after 3 years they still have not signed rookie deal then the team has to sign using cap space, exception, or minimum contract. .... I think.
                  This is wrong. If a team and a drafted player can't agree to a contract, the player enters the next year's draft. However, this only applies if the player does not play any professional or collegiate basketball at any time during that year. If they do, the team that drafted them retains their rights. This continues indefinitely. To the best of my knowledge, the one year provision has never been used.

                  Both first and second round draft picks have a required tender; they must be offered contracts. The difference is that the required tender for first round picks must be for at least 80% of the rookie scale, and must have at least 80% of the rookie scale guaranteed against lack of skill. Second round picks must be offered a contract as well, however they don't have to be guaranteed against lack of skill. That means that a team can theoretically offer as little as 1 year, nothing guaranteed--but they have to make that offer. If the player wants to, they can accept it, forcing the team to either put them on the roster. Of course, the team then has the option to waive the player, which would make him a Rookie Free Agent.

                  Naturally, this never happens. No respectable front office would have such acrimonious negotiations with a player; it would be bad for reputation and for future negotiations. If they can't agree on a contract, the team usually just renounces their draft rights, which also makes the player a Rookie Free Agent.

                  (The three-year provision you're thinking of is that after three years, if a team still hasn't signed a first round pick they retain the rights to, the team has the option to use cap space instead of the rookie scale to sign the player, as long as the contract is for at least 3 years and is more than 120% of the rookie scale. This is to prevent situations where a player stays their whole career in Europe because they can make more money there than the NBA rookie scale.)

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                  • Okay. That clears things up for me. Still don't understand why they would offer Solomon Alabi more than a one year mininum contract.

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                    • blackjitsu wrote: View Post
                      Okay. That clears things up for me. Still don't understand why they would offer Solomon Alabi more than a one year mininum contract.
                      Same as ever--potential. Obviously in this case it was a bad call, but nobody wants to be the guy who has to give up Paul Millsap or Carlos Boozer or Gilbert Arenas after one year, just because they wanted to save $800,000. Alabi was on a 3 year minimum deal, with a team option for the 3rd year (still at the minimum). If he had turned into something, it would have been an incredible value. When he didn't, all it cost was one year of minimum salary (after the first, evaluation/development year).

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                      • Francis posted his list of "sleepers" the raps should go after

                        1. Reggie Bullock - 6-7 SF, UNC: We'll start with Bullock, although by no means is he necessarily our top rated player on this list. But he does stand out for one sole reason: his ability to knock down three-point shots. Bullock shot 43 per cent from downtown last year for North Carolina, and his 1.29 points per-shot on catch and shoot jumpers ranked first in Draft Express' look at this year's Small Forward class. Also from this DX analysis, he ranked ahead of the pack in overall scoring efficiency with his 1.11 PPP overall and scored a top five ranked 1.37 points per-possession in transition, a testament to his athletic ability, shooting and ball-handling skills in the open court.

                        He's also got the size and athleticism to man the 2 or 3 spots and via ESPN.com's recent WARP Draft-article, he ranked as the 19th best prospect in the draft.

                        2. Seth Curry - 6-2, SG, DUKE: Again, the theme if you're drafting Curry is shooting. Much like Bullock, Curry is a lights-out shooter hitting on 44 per cent of his three-point shots last year at Duke, hitting nearly 50 per cent of his shots overall, and from Draft Express statistical look at this year's Shooting Guards, Curry ranked first in efficiency at 1.142 points per possession.

                        However unlike Bullock, Curry's size at only 6-2 could potentially be an issue as he's not exactly an option at the 1, unlike his older brother. He averaged only 1.9 assists per game per 40 minutes, and sported a negative pure-point rating (an attempt to measure the efficiency of point guards.)

                        Curry's not on most mock drafts at present so this may be a case where Masai Ujiri reaches out to Curry's agent as soon as possible to try and grab him for Summer League and potentially take the "undrafted free-agent" route in terms of signing him. His size could be an issue but it's a good bet that someone with his shooting ability, efficiency (he sported one of the lowest turnover rates in the NCAA considering his usage) and lineage will find a spot in the L.

                        3. DJ Stephens - 6-5, F, Memphis: Stephens might be one of the most intriguing players to me in this draft. DX currently has him slated to go undrafted so like Curry, Toronto could look to bring him in post-draft to see if he would be a fit for the team.

                        And there are a myriad of reasons as to why he could indeed be. For starters, he's one of those under-sized but athletic marvels who we've seen surprise in the NBA. He's not Kenneth Faried per se, but he certainly opened a few eyes at this year's combine based on his athletic testing, specifically, his combine-record 46 inch vertical-leap.

                        But is this another case of Joey Graham?

                        Right now it's hard to say but he's been stellar at various workouts so far in the draft process, showcasing lock-down defensive abilities at multiple positions, and a motor that doesn't quit, both attributes the Raps could use heavy doses of. His ridiculous wingspan, speed and athleticism is a boost to both points and while he's got a ways to go on offense, he's one of the best finishers on the break in this draft, and ranked at or near the top in blocks, rebounds and steals in Draft Express' look at this year's Small Forward draft options.

                        4. Trevor Mbakwe - 6-8, F, Minnesota: Mbakwe is on this list despite his age (24), rumoured off-court baggage, and history of knee issues as he's got enough upside as a monster in the paint in the NBA. He led or was at the top the Draft Express Power Forward study in categories like offensive rebounding, overall rebounding and shot-blocking, and like Stephens has stood out in various workouts thanks to his energy and explosiveness.

                        He's a bit undersized but if the doctors give his knees the green light, and he's shown to have matured over the past season, he could be a more offensively skilled version of Joey Dorsey at the next level, someone the Raptors, could use in spurts off the bench at the 4.

                        5. Ryan Kelly - 6-11, F, DUKE


                        6. Erik Murphy - 6-10, F, Florida

                        A couple more options at the 4 come up next but not in the form of defensive players. Ryan Kelly and Erik Murphy both possess skill-sets that could see them be "stretch-four" types at the next level.

                        Kelly was unfortunately injured for the bulk of his senior season at Duke but nevertheless showed a continued ability to spread the floor, hitting 42 per cent of his three-point attempts, not bad for a near 7-footer.

                        Murphy was a slight tick better in this area hitting 45 per cent, and was second to only Kelly Olynyk in True Shooting percentage in Draft Express' look at this year's power fowards.

                        Neither are tremdendous athletes or shot creators, but both could be Matt Bonner types at the next level, smart shot-makers found on the benches of winning teams. Kelly in particular shows some advanced attributes as in the previous Draft Express study, he was the only point guard with a positive pure-point rating, a testament to his ability to pass the ball and limit turnovers, again, a need for the Raps.

                        7. Pierre Jackson - 5-10, PG, BAYLOR: Obviously the size is an issue but as we've seen of late in the NBA, "going small" can be used to a team's advantage in certain situations and Jackson, despite his diminutive size, figures to find a role in the league somewhere. He's blistering fast, an incredible athlete and has pretty solid advanced stats. In the ESPN WARP study, Jackson found himself in the "second-round steal" category thanks to elite steal rate (often a great NBA indicator) and ability to knock down the outside shot and score efficiently.

                        He's more of a scorer than passer as a 1, but wasn't awful in the shot-creating area either, posting solid numbers in Draft Express' look at the point guard class.

                        8. Erick Green - 6-3, G, Virginia Tech: Green is another interesting option as a point guard draftee. Much like Jackson, he's certainly more of a scoring guard than a pass-first option, but he's such a good scorer, that it might be worth taking a flyer on him. In the previous Draft Express study mentioned, Green True Shooting percentage of 60% last year despite very high usage marks at V Tech, and being the team's lone offensive option.

                        This translated to a stellar PER of 31.7 and potentially a look in the second-round from NBA teams.

                        9. Mike Muscala - 6-11, C, Bucknell: Muscala's combination of size and touch are interesting to me in this draft. In a league that values big men who can play the "pick-and-pop" game, Muscala could be a Rasho Nesterovic type option down the road.

                        He's got good size, can play with his back to the basket, and excelled at drawing fouls at a high rate and getting to the line. He also averaged 3.1 assists per 40 minutes, tops in Draft Express look at the Center crop in this draft, and potentially then a nice fit in Toronto to help activate what was at times a fairly motionless offence last season.

                        All of this of course was against Patriot League competition so there will be questions about his ability to do the same at the next level.

                        But if he hasn't heard his name called as the second-round starts to slip away, this is a player I'd take a hard look at.

                        10. Archie Goodwin - 6-5, G, Kentucky: Finally, we go all upside. There wasn't a single study I could find that looked at Goodwin as an enticing prospect but sometimes, you swing for the fences on the youngest players with the most room to grow.

                        Goodwin, a top high school star who played only one season at Kentucky, fits that bill.

                        He can't shoot the 3, doesn't have amazing size for his position, hasn't shown much defensive ability, and actually posted a negative WARP score in the ESPN.com draft study we've been referencing.

                        But you know who else posted similar awful advanced metrics at one point?

                        Louis Williams. And Monta Ellis. And Eric Bledsoe.

                        Sometimes poor marks are simply are indication of lack of playing time or experience, not ability and so if you're going to swing and miss on a second-round pick, you might as well do it on a one-time blue-chipper like Goodwin.
                        a couple interesting prospects i hadn't heard of, like the guy from memphis or baylor. i'd be pretty jazzed if we somehow got Bullock. I think Goodwin will be a decent player in the league, too. Just needs a LOT of work.
                        @sweatpantsjer

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                        • Man you know who i actually really like? Sergey Karasev.

                          First of all his name is Sergey and i LOVE saying that name. Makes me feel dangerous. Second, he's Russian and i can't think of a single russian player in the league that i'd mess with. "But ceez that's a pretty broad statement!" you're probably thinking to which i say, but it's true. Seriously. Look it up.

                          Thirdly,



                          I find a lot of his defensive issues aren't because of his athleticism like it says, but bad angles he seems to take and giving up too much space. All very much coachable. Nevermind he has the length to really bother shooters.

                          All in all, he's got a great feel for the game and has the IQ, size and experience to play right away. I don't know where he gets drafted tomorrow but if he somehow slips a bit i'd jump on him.
                          @sweatpantsjer

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                          • Who are we kidding i only have eyes for KCP
                            @sweatpantsjer

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                            • @sweatpantsjer

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                              • ceez wrote: View Post
                                Man you know who i actually really like? Sergey Karasev.

                                First of all his name is Sergey and i LOVE saying that name. Makes me feel dangerous. Second, he's Russian and i can't think of a single russian player in the league that i'd mess with. "But ceez that's a pretty broad statement!" you're probably thinking to which i say, but it's true. Seriously. Look it up.

                                Thirdly,



                                I find a lot of his defensive issues aren't because of his athleticism like it says, but bad angles he seems to take and giving up too much space. All very much coachable. Nevermind he has the length to really bother shooters.

                                All in all, he's got a great feel for the game and has the IQ, size and experience to play right away. I don't know where he gets drafted tomorrow but if he somehow slips a bit i'd jump on him.
                                Yeah, I also thought the D issues were overstated. He has good size, a good motor and an extremely high bball IQ. I really think he's one of the safer picks in the draft, and also has upside to be one of the better players in the draft. Some team is going to grab him in the teens....I'd be pretty happy if it was the Raptors.

                                Also, he's played against men since 2010, so his defensive failings would be more exposed given his level of competition both in terms of physicality and skill. Compare that to the "freak" Antetokounmpo, who gets lauded for his athleticism and defensive upside, but has never played against high-calibre competition. Sergey's not a horrible athlete, more like an average one, and just still too skinny for his size, but it doesn't take elite athleticism to be a good, or even great, defensive player. D is so much about smarts and motor, and he's got those.

                                I think my ideal haul, assuming they get 2 picks, one mid-late first and one second...is Karasev and Kabongo. I am intrigued by Antetokounmpo, but he's definitely a project who may not ever be NBA ready. I would take him in a heartbeat if Karasev was off the board, but I'm not sure I would take him ahead of Sergey. I really really like Karasev. And as polished as Karasev is, he's the same age as many freshman, and only one year older than Giannis. He's way ahead of most guys at his age, including most of the top prospects in this draft.

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