DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

[Apollo]

DeMar's handle is far more important than long range shooting. I'd rather seem him be a drive first, shoot second kind of player. I think he could thrive in that if he develops a strong mid-range game. He doesn't need the long ball. His bread and butter should be at the free throw line with all that athleticism.

The handle is also important to creating for others and if he wants to be a premier NBA SG or if he wants to be anything more than niche role 6th man on a winning team, he needs that handle.

[drunkmunky]

I feel like he's got a lot to prove this year and he's going to explode on the court. Big numbers from him this year. Fingers crossed.

[isaacthompson]

I feel like he's got a lot to prove this year and he's going to explode on the court. Big numbers from him this year. Fingers crossed.

People were posting videos of him in the Drew last year as well, saying the same thing. Don't get too excited over a couple dunks.

[Apollo]

And the year before that the buzz was about him playing with Kobe during the summer...

[Xixak]

DeMar's handle is far more important than long range shooting. I'd rather seem him be a drive first, shoot second kind of player. I think he could thrive in that if he develops a strong mid-range game. He doesn't need the long ball. His bread and butter should be at the free throw line with all that athleticism.

The handle is also important to creating for others and if he wants to be a premier NBA SG or if he wants to be anything more than niche role 6th man on a winning team, he needs that handle.

This. I'd rather he not fall in love with the 3 if he acquires it (3-4 attempts per game, no more).

If he can really improve his counter moves and breakdown ability he'll be an all-star, period. He already has a really high draw rate without much of a ball-handling arsenal. Incorporating that into his game (especially combined with an improved 3) would just be incredible.

[drunkmunky]

Can't blame me for grasping @ straws with the lack of success we've had.... this is Toronto after all.

[isaacthompson]

Can't blame me for grasping @ straws with the lack of success we've had.... this is Toronto after all.

Haha don't get me wrong, I'm all for optimism. There ain't enough of it on this forum. Just don't let your hopes go through the roof.

[drunkmunky]

I just think he's going to be the threat that everyone thinks he should be this season. Naturally there will be other problems *ball handling, court vision* but if he is able to consistently shoot the 3 at about the 2-guard league average, he will essentially become the average 2-guard short of all-star status.

IF then, when the organization chooses, at least MU can trade him for more value than for less.

[enlightenment]

Interestingly enough, Billups, Payton, and KJ are ALL point guards. The only shooting guard we've been able to point to has been MJ...

In any event, I've yet to seen anything that would say me from my current positions

1) We can no longer talk about Demar's "potential" I think there's a chance that he shows some major improvement this season, but we he shows us is what he is.

2) It is more likely that he WON'T show major improvement, than it is that he WILL show major improvement.

3) I HOPE he will show major improvement.

Someone also brought up Rip Hamilton. (from 02' to 06' -> 27%, 27%, 30%, 46%)
Ill bring up Dwayne Wade (from 04' to 09' -> 29%, 17%, 27%, 29%, 32%)
Monta Ellis (from 06' to 11' -> 27%, 23%, 31%, 34%, 36%)
Kirilenko (from '04 to '08 -> 30%, 30%, 21%, 38%)

People improving their 3pt shot is not unheard of and most careers show huge swings in their percentages.
To think Demar will stay static at 28% is being pessimistic not realistic

[mcHAPPY]

Someone also brought up Rip Hamilton. (from 02' to 06' -> 27%, 27%, 30%, 46%)
Ill bring up Dwayne Wade (from 04' to 09' -> 29%, 17%, 27%, 29%, 32%)
Monta Ellis (from 06' to 11' -> 27%, 23%, 31%, 34%, 36%)
Kirilenko (from '04 to '08 -> 30%, 30%, 21%, 38%)

People improving their 3pt shot is not unheard of and most careers show huge swings in their percentages.
To think Demar will stay static at 28% is being pessimistic not realistic

Sigh

But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.

[mcHAPPY]

Sigh

But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.

Except wade

[enlightenment]

Sigh

But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.

I dont know that its relevant, Rip jumped from 27% - 46% (was never even close to 40% before hand)
Wade, from 17%-32% and kept it near the 30% mark since
Ellis 23%-36%
Kirilenko 30%-38%

Demar is at 28% right now, is it a huge stretch that he could hit 32% next year? No, I simply cant view it as a big stretch, most players experience fluctuations larger than 4% a year every year. Demar at 32% now has a 3pt shot that must be respected because it nets more than 1 ppp, and that will totally open his game up.

[Xixak]

Sigh

But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.

All their "high percentage" years were on low volume.

Rip: 28 makes (36%), 16 makes (38%)... that's an insignifcant sample size. I'd look at the years where he attempted 146 3s (27%) and 119 3s (27%) as more indicative of his ability to shoot the ball. Kind of like DeMar's 29% on 120 attempts this year.

Monta: 28 Makes (34%), 8 makes (31%)... again not a significant sample size. He shot 143 his 2nd year and only made 27%. His first year to shoot a good percentage on high volume was coincidentally his FIFTH year (34% on 228 attempts) followed by 36% on 379 attempts. That is a DRASTIC improvement in 3pt shooting ability, especially considering he averaged 28% from 3 for his first 4 seasons. Let's take a closer look:

Start of Career:

First 4 Years of Monta Ellis: 87/303 = 28.7% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 27.3%)
First six years of Rip Hamilton: 170/560 = 30.3% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 27.4%)
First four years of DeMar DeRozan: 67/280 = 23.9% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 28.3%)

All players relatively poor shooters early in their careers. If you don't factor in years 5 and 6 for Rip it's closer to 28%

Later in Career

Next 3 Years of Monta Ellis: 264/763 = 34.6%
Next 4 Years of Rip Hamilton: 231/580 = 39.8%

Both players actually INCREASED their 3PT shooting volume and percentage at the same time, Rip went from high 20s/low 30s to low-mid 40s at his best and that was in his 7th and 8th seasons. YES players can improve at shooting the three later in their careers. Let's not forget that Rip was 27 when he first became consistent from 3 (Ellis was 23 like DeRozan).

[enlightenment]

Nice breakdown Xixak

[drunkmunky]

I know we're talking percentages, but when I'm thinking of 3pt threat, I'm thinking of shots near the end of the game, or tie breaking shots.

Isn't that just as important as the statistic? Where and when those 3pt shots are made?