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Raptors - a playoff team in 2013-14?

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  • #91
    LBF wrote: View Post
    Season is a write-off. Even if the team makes the playoffs, it's not building towards anything. If there ceiling is 7th/ 8th it's gonna be blown up
    We're building around Jonas. He is the future of the franchise. This year will show us who fits with JV and who doesn't. It also wouldn't hurt JV at all to get some playoff experience, in fact, I think it is essential for him to grow as a player.

    This ridiculous mentality of "we need to be a top 3 team or blow it up" has to stop. A 7 seed this year would be pretty damn good, and would set us up for a top 5 seed the following year. B-U-I-L-D-I-N-G being the key word. You can't just tear it down over and over and over to get a top draft pick, when we already have one in JV.

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    • #92
      Primer wrote: View Post
      We're building around Jonas. He is the future of the franchise. This year will show us who fits with JV and who doesn't. It also wouldn't hurt JV at all to get some playoff experience, in fact, I think it is essential for him to grow as a player.

      This ridiculous mentality of "we need to be a top 3 team or blow it up" has to stop. A 7 seed this year would be pretty damn good, and would set us up for a top 5 seed the following year. B-U-I-L-D-I-N-G being the key word. You can't just tear it down over and over and over to get a top draft pick, when we already have one in JV.
      I'm on your side with the tearing it down over and over. I just think that's what's gonna happen.
      If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

      Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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      • #93
        Primer wrote: View Post
        This ridiculous mentality of "we need to be a top 3 team or blow it up" has to stop. A 7 seed this year would be pretty damn good, and would set us up for a top 5 seed the following year. B-U-I-L-D-I-N-G being the key word. You can't just tear it down over and over and over to get a top draft pick, when we already have one in JV.
        I think this needs to be said as many times as it takes until it sinks in:

        I love Jonas, but he is one of the 2-3 star players you need to compete in the NBA and we do not have a second star player, much less a third. (Rudy is not a star player.) As for "building" this team - with what, exactly, do we build? How do we get that second (or third) star player? If you want to keep this roster going forward, then we can't sign a free agent - Rudy's salary and Kyle's extension kill that idea next year. We don't have any assets that we can trade for a star who aren't part of our current roster's core. So we're left with either getting very lucky in the draft (unlikely) or "internal development" and players just getting better over time (not good odds, except for JV).

        The simple truth is that this team has a ceiling, and it's probably around the 7 seed. If you want to get more than the 7 seed, fine: accept the fact that it means blowing up the current roster, because it's basically impossible otherwise. And if you have to blow up the roster, sooner is better than later.

        Related: Zach Lowe's piece in Grantland today re: each team's success in the offseason. Toronto is in the "winners, with caveats" section:

        Toronto Raptors

        This team could follow a number of different paths over the next two years or so, but they've found a ruthless negotiator in Masai Ujiri to guide them. Ujiri somehow dumped Andrea Bargnani on the Knicks in return for three draft picks and only one player on a guaranteed multiyear contract (Steve Novak), a move that at least creates the possibility of the Raps clearing max-level cap space as early as next summer.

        They'd have to part with Rudy Gay to get there, and Gay has a $19.3 million player option for 2014-15. Gay is still in his prime, and when they traded for him the Raptors privately indicated they expected Gay to opt out and secure a longer-term deal. Kyle Lowry will also be a free agent next summer, putting Toronto in a unique position in which they could compete for a playoff spot this season and then bottom out in 2014-15.

        Of course, this season is the best time in a decade to bottom out, and the Raps might be able to engineer that path with a few midseason trades. Everything's on the table, and the Bargnani trade was a nice start.

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        • #94
          magoon wrote: View Post
          I think this needs to be said as many times as it takes until it sinks in:

          I love Jonas, but he is one of the 2-3 star players you need to compete in the NBA and we do not have a second star player, much less a third. (Rudy is not a star player.) As for "building" this team - with what, exactly, do we build? How do we get that second (or third) star player? If you want to keep this roster going forward, then we can't sign a free agent - Rudy's salary and Kyle's extension kill that idea next year. We don't have any assets that we can trade for a star who aren't part of our current roster's core. So we're left with either getting very lucky in the draft (unlikely) or "internal development" and players just getting better over time (not good odds, except for JV).

          The simple truth is that this team has a ceiling, and it's probably around the 7 seed. If you want to get more than the 7 seed, fine: accept the fact that it means blowing up the current roster, because it's basically impossible otherwise. And if you have to blow up the roster, sooner is better than later.

          Related: Zach Lowe's piece in Grantland today re: each team's success in the offseason. Toronto is in the "winners, with caveats" section:
          I didn't read past there. What makes you think you know better? Listing your opinion as if it's some fact and everyone who doesn't think the same is delusional..You don't have anymore of a clue than any of the rest of us here.
          If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

          Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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          • #95
            LBF wrote: View Post
            I didn't read past there. What makes you think you know better? Listing your opinion as if it's some fact and everyone who doesn't think the same is delusional..You don't have anymore of a clue than any of the rest of us here.
            You beat me to it, but it won't sink in.

            See. It didn't.
            Last edited by p00ka; Tue Jul 23, 2013, 10:59 AM.

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            • #96
              LBF wrote: View Post
              I didn't read past there. What makes you think you know better? Listing your opinion as if it's some fact and everyone who doesn't think the same is delusional..You don't have anymore of a clue than any of the rest of us here.
              Because it's not an opinion. It's fact.

              1. The roster, as built, can't add more top-tier free agents because of basic salary cap math.

              2. We're almost certainly not going to get a second star player in a trade because teams are extremely careful about trading stars, because everybody knows the NBA is a star-driven league and most mega-trades are driven by a primadonna like Dwight Howard demanding a trade (and we won't be a target for the Dwight Howards of the world) or, more rarely, money reasons (like the Harden trade, which everybody in basketball now acknowledges was the Wrong Thing for OKC to do).

              3. That leaves the draft, which is not great for finding star players when you aren't in the lottery, and internal development, which doesn't leave us with many options for growth.

              If you don't like that, well, tough. That's life. This is a star-driven league, always has been.

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              • #97
                magoon wrote: View Post
                ..The roster, as built, can't add more top-tier free agents because of basic salary cap math....
                The roster will be completely different in 2 years, as deals expire and as Masai makes trades, uses picks. In two years, simply with existing options, the Raps could have 6 players still on rookie deals, but with anything from 1-3 years of NBA experience. They could have a star in Jonas. They could have solid role players in Amir, Fields, Ross, & Demar (or solid role players in the results of trading the last two). They could have two stars or otherwise high level players purchased (for as free agents. They could have 6 bench players making $2-3 million a year filling out the bench. That would put their salary level at around $75 million (rough math) which could be just south of luxury tax.

                All of this could be done without tanking or blowing it up but through building, smart trading, and otherwise intelligent management. This could put them into the second round of the playoffs for several years running.

                Good enough for me.

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                • #98
                  Puffer wrote: View Post
                  The roster will be completely different in 2 years, as deals expire and as Masai makes trades, uses picks. In two years, simply with existing options, the Raps could have 6 players still on rookie deals, but with anything from 1-3 years of NBA experience. They could have a star in Jonas. They could have solid role players in Amir, Fields, Ross, & Demar (or solid role players in the results of trading the last two). They could have two stars or otherwise high level players purchased (for as free agents. They could have 6 bench players making $2-3 million a year filling out the bench. That would put their salary level at around $75 million (rough math) which could be just south of luxury tax.

                  All of this could be done without tanking or blowing it up but through building, smart trading, and otherwise intelligent management. This could put them into the second round of the playoffs for several years running.

                  Good enough for me.
                  If Gay & Lowry aren't in your long term plans (it sounds like your hypothetical plan has them expiring and being allowed to walk in free agency), then why would you bother going all in with them for a year just to try and grab the 7/8 seed and get thumped in the first round? Why not just trade them now, get picks/prospects/financial flexibility back in return if you plan on letting them wander off in free agency and receive squat?

                  The narrative that this year should be about building around Jonas is fine. I just want to know what keeping Gay/Lowry/DD around has to do with it? Removing two of those three from the line up will only free up more shots and touches for JV while getting rid of the "win now" mandate in the short term that may prevent Casey from playing his younger guys through their mistakes. You really think those three are going to start deferring to our 20 year old centre when two of them are potentially in contract seasons?

                  Oh, and if you trade them, you probably end up with a top five pick to team up with Jonas and hopefully build on for the next decade. As it stands now, the primes of the players on this team don't line up at all.

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                  • #99
                    magoon wrote: View Post
                    Because it's not an opinion. It's fact.

                    1. The roster, as built, can't add more top-tier free agents because of basic salary cap math.

                    2. We're almost certainly not going to get a second star player in a trade because teams are extremely careful about trading stars, because everybody knows the NBA is a star-driven league and most mega-trades are driven by a primadonna like Dwight Howard demanding a trade (and we won't be a target for the Dwight Howards of the world) or, more rarely, money reasons (like the Harden trade, which everybody in basketball now acknowledges was the Wrong Thing for OKC to do).

                    3. That leaves the draft, which is not great for finding star players when you aren't in the lottery, and internal development, which doesn't leave us with many options for growth.

                    If you don't like that, well, tough. That's life. This is a star-driven league, always has been.
                    uhm, no that's sports..not supremely affecting my life.

                    Also once again wrong. That's opinion, not fact. Puffer proved it below. Your points can be argued, facts can't be argued.

                    We're getting off-topic,btw
                    Last edited by LBF; Tue Jul 23, 2013, 11:36 AM.
                    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

                    Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

                    Comment


                    • Puffer wrote: View Post
                      The roster will be completely different in 2 years, as deals expire and as Masai makes trades, uses picks. In two years, simply with existing options, the Raps could have 6 players still on rookie deals, but with anything from 1-3 years of NBA experience. They could have a star in Jonas. They could have solid role players in Amir, Fields, Ross, & Demar (or solid role players in the results of trading the last two). They could have two stars or otherwise high level players purchased (for as free agents. They could have 6 bench players making $2-3 million a year filling out the bench. That would put their salary level at around $75 million (rough math) which could be just south of luxury tax.

                      All of this could be done without tanking or blowing it up but through building, smart trading, and otherwise intelligent management. This could put them into the second round of the playoffs for several years running.
                      All you're doing is handwaving away with "intelligent management" to avoid answering the actual serious questions with respect to Raptors salary issues, which are as follows:

                      1. Rudy costs $15 million this year and $19 million next year, and will most likely want at least $12-14 million going forward. He'll be able to get that somewhere. Do we re-sign him for that much?
                      2. Kyle will want as max a deal as possible, presumably in the neighborhood of $9-10M or even more. Do we re-sign him for that much?
                      3. Amir will need a new contract in 2014/15, will be in his prime and probably will want (and deserve!) at least $7-8 million if not more. Do we re-sign him for that much?

                      Let's say in 2015-16 we have Rudy for $12m, Kyle for 9 and Amir for 8. Which I think is pretty optimistic, frankly, but let's say that's what we've got. That's 38 million once you add DeMar, 43 once you add in Jonas. Jonas will want his extension and he'll most likely deserve max, so we'll agree to give him $12-14m a year and hey presto, we're already capped out just by our starters for the next year. And then we're right back where we started.

                      You can talk about "intelligent management" all you want, but there is a very simple question at the heart of all this: do you want to move forward with Rudy/Kyle/DeMar/Amir/Jonas as your core? Most of the people who are saying "come on, let's give them a chance" are basically saying yes to that. That's fine. But the price of having them as your core is that, well, they are mostly expensive, and they're not going to get cheaper in the near future.

                      If you accept that at least some of Rudy, Kyle and DeMar need to go at some point, then the next question is "when" and from a risk-modelling standpoint the answer is "the sooner the better," because they're all basically known quantities and the odds (for Rudy and DeMar more than Kyle) are that their trade values are more likely to drop than raise. Trade Rudy now, and maybe you get reasonable value for him, because there's still upside attached to him. The other GMs all know about the vision issue and that he got eye surgery to correct it, and they're all wondering what we're wondering: was Rudy's shooting mediocre because of his vision, or because he's just a mediocre shooter? If it gets confirmed as the latter, then he'll get harder to trade. Right now Rudy has potential, and the one thing about the NBA that always turns out true is that GMs and fans alike are willing to overpay for potential. It just makes more sense to trade him now. (See also: DeMar.)

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                      • who's first....
                        Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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                        • LBF wrote: View Post
                          Season is a write-off. Even if the team makes the playoffs, it's not building towards anything. If there ceiling is 7th/ 8th it's gonna be blown up
                          flip flop!

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                          • iblastoff wrote: View Post
                            flip flop!
                            I said "if"..
                            If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

                            Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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                            • magoon wrote: View Post
                              All you're doing is handwaving away with "intelligent management" to avoid answering the actual serious questions with respect to Raptors salary issues, which are as follows:

                              1. Rudy costs $15 million this year and $19 million next year, and will most likely want at least $12-14 million going forward. He'll be able to get that somewhere. Do we re-sign him for that much?
                              2. Kyle will want as max a deal as possible, presumably in the neighborhood of $9-10M or even more. Do we re-sign him for that much?
                              3. Amir will need a new contract in 2014/15, will be in his prime and probably will want (and deserve!) at least $7-8 million if not more. Do we re-sign him for that much?

                              Let's say in 2015-16 we have Rudy for $12m, Kyle for 9 and Amir for 8. Which I think is pretty optimistic, frankly, but let's say that's what we've got. That's 38 million once you add DeMar, 43 once you add in Jonas. Jonas will want his extension and he'll most likely deserve max, so we'll agree to give him $12-14m a year and hey presto, we're already capped out just by our starters for the next year. And then we're right back where we started.

                              You can talk about "intelligent management" all you want, but there is a very simple question at the heart of all this: do you want to move forward with Rudy/Kyle/DeMar/Amir/Jonas as your core? Most of the people who are saying "come on, let's give them a chance" are basically saying yes to that. That's fine. But the price of having them as your core is that, well, they are mostly expensive, and they're not going to get cheaper in the near future.

                              If you accept that at least some of Rudy, Kyle and DeMar need to go at some point, then the next question is "when" and from a risk-modelling standpoint the answer is "the sooner the better," because they're all basically known quantities and the odds (for Rudy and DeMar more than Kyle) are that their trade values are more likely to drop than raise. Trade Rudy now, and maybe you get reasonable value for him, because there's still upside attached to him. The other GMs all know about the vision issue and that he got eye surgery to correct it, and they're all wondering what we're wondering: was Rudy's shooting mediocre because of his vision, or because he's just a mediocre shooter? If it gets confirmed as the latter, then he'll get harder to trade. Right now Rudy has potential, and the one thing about the NBA that always turns out true is that GMs and fans alike are willing to overpay for potential. It just makes more sense to trade him now. (See also: DeMar.)
                              I'm not sure how Rudy has potential. I hope your not basing that simply on the eye surgery. If GM's are more likely to want Rudy simply because he got eye surgery, then those are poor GM's indeed...perhaps the Knicks will take him.

                              I believe this team is in a pretty good position going forward. There is flexibility here and I believe this team can improve without tanking, and I think this is the approach MU will take, unless the team starts this upcoming season the way it did the last. I think in a well coached system that the players believe in we can definitely make the playoffs, maybe even the second round. However, I do not see most of the players on this roster as being a part of the future. I think a core of JV/Amir/Gay/DD and Kyle is pretty good, and can be competitive, but I certainly do not see it as a team capable of a championship. The main reason I think this is Rudy. He has a larger role than he can fill, he supposedly needs to be a super-star, even though he lacks the super-star attitude or mentality. I think Rudy gets traded, and that may happen this year if the team under-achieves, but he could still be kept for another year and his expiring contract could be moved easily. I think Lowry gets traded as well. If he has a great season, we may want to keep him, but I think he goes either way, probably as a S&T next offseason to a team hard up for an aggressive PG. I just don't see him leading any team to a championship. I think DD stays, at least for the time being. His contract isn't as bad as some think, in my opinion anyways, and he shows a great work ethic, a commitment to the team, and has shown improvement in many aspects of his game year to year since coming into the league, not to mention the durability. He has not regressed at all, and shows a desire to continue to improve. I can't say the same for RG or KL, so I think DeMar stays longer than the other two mentioned. Plus, in a year or two I think many will look at Demar's value like we now look at Amir's.

                              In any event, like you (magoon) mentioned, we can't afford to keep the current starters together as their contracts expire, and why would you unless you think the team can compete for a championship? At this point, I think we all agree that JV should stay. Everyone else is up in the air really. I'd move Gay in a heartbeat...I just don't believe in him. I know he has a ton of talent, but thats where it stops for me. Plus, we can probably get a good return if we move him. As for Kyle, well I'm kinda up in the air with him. I think he could be a great player, and I'm excited to see what he will do this season after trimming up and now playing for a contract, but, I fear what we get from him this year we may not get after, if he gets a nice extension he gives me the impression he may "take it easy" afterward, or "regress" if you will. I hope I am wrong about him as I would like to see him succeed in a Raps uniform. But, depending on how this season goes, we may very well be able to get a good return on Lowry as well, or keep him if he shows he can be a leader.

                              I like Amir, I think he brings alot to the table and is versatile and capable of making a positive contribution whether he plays 15 or 35, starts or comes off the bench. He is one of the better "intangible" guys out there, and I say keep him. However, he could also net a good return. I think DD is a keeper too. I could care less about his 3pt shot, I figure he should shoot few of them anyways and only under extenuating circumstances, that is, the Raps should not run plays that leaves DD "open" for 3pt shots. Furthermore, our offensive system shouldn't allow DD (or RG for that matter) to just park and hoist up deep jumpers, or play in face up ISO. I like DD in the post and taking it too the hole and getting to the line. He is one of the better guards in the league at this, I think we should take advantage of it. We should be running plays to get him in position to score where he is most capable of doing so, not encouraging him to work on skills he may never gain and take shots he is the least likely of making. I think alot of teams recognize this, making DD a tradeable piece that good also net a good return.

                              So, I think there are options going forward, however, if we start moving some of these players we will have to take advantage of the cap space and make a splash in the free agent market at some point. Sorry, I see no Wiggins in the near future. If we rely soley on draft picks, we could easily get burnt and be going through this same process again in 6-8 years. Tanking and dealing for picks just isn't gonna work in my opinion, plus I'm not sure how many high picks guys like RG, DD, KL, and AJ could bring. Smart trades, a few good picks, and a great free agent signing or two in the next few years could elevate this team significantly.
                              As for the core, I'm happy to see what they bring this season. If we are not in a playoff position after 25-30 games, I'd start making plans to change the roster.

                              Personally, this is as excited I have been in some time about the Raps, believing we have the potential to make the playoffs this season and perhaps make a splash, while still having some flexibility going forward that does not necessarily mean tanking and watching this team completely suck like it has for so many years.

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                              • The real question is does this team compliment one another? That's what everyone is going to find out. That's why Ujiri has not blown it up. Need to know what we've got and if they mesh.
                                If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

                                Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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