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ESPN 5-on-5: Rudy Gay most Overrated Small Forward.

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  • I love how smart some of you on this site are.

    Thanks for the clarifications guys!!


    Craiger, thanks for explaining the whole "2s is the baseline" part. Makes it a lot more clear.

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    • TRX wrote: View Post
      lol, atrocious. no to wFG%. He's playing a semantics game by saying a percentage should not be higher than 100%, but the comments had it right; it's about measuring efficiency, using two-point attempts as the baseline measure. He also fails to understand that TS% does indeed differentiate between a made two and a made three simply by not distinguishing between a 2PTA and a 3PTA. On the same number of shots and FTs, with more threes made, your TS% will be higher.
      Yeah wFG% is really not a good stat at all.

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      • Xixak wrote: View Post
        Yeah wFG% is really not a good stat at all.
        Lol Alright, alright, I learned my lesson. Haha

        Comment


        • The only SF's that i would take ahead of Gay.

          1. LeBron
          2. Durant
          3. Carmelo
          4. George

          That's it.
          Mamba Mentality

          Comment


          • TRex wrote: View Post
            The only SF's that i would take ahead of Gay.

            1. LeBron
            2. Durant
            3. Carmelo
            4. George

            That's it.
            Why not just say "Lebron" and leave it at that? I mean, if you're just blue-skying, and ignoring any variables that might affect "value" outside of pure, individual basketball ability, then why not just take the best?

            In other words, what are you trying to say here? Hopefully it's not that you would keep Rudy Gay over every other SF in the league, regardless of salary, fit with the other players on your team, contribution to winning, etc.
            Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

            Comment


            • Speaking of overrated and underrated SFs. Gay = overpaid. George = overrated, soon to be overpaid. Sixers Thaddeus Young, IMO, is vastly underrated. Can play either PF or SF (prefers SF). Has put up a > 18 PER the last 3 seasons. He plays defense and he is an unselfish team player (comes off the bench and plays PF, even though he doesn't want to). Goes to show what a difference 'exposure' and 'winning' can make.

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              • golden wrote: View Post
                Speaking of overrated and underrated SFs. Gay = overpaid. George = overrated, soon to be overpaid. Sixers Thaddeus Young, IMO, is vastly underrated. Can play either PF or SF (prefers SF). Has put up a > 18 PER the last 3 seasons. He plays defense and he is an unselfish team player (comes off the bench and plays PF, even though he doesn't want to). Goes to show what a difference 'exposure' and 'winning' can make.
                This is 100% spot-on.

                Players that play in big markets or are on teams that make deep playoff runs always end up getting overrated, it's just a fact of life.

                - In 2011 some people were saying Dirk was a top 5 all-time player after he beat Miami lol
                - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are now suddenly superstar type players because their teams went deep
                - I've consistently seen people saying that Roy Hibbert and Marc Gasol are better than Dwight Howard
                - Klay Thompson was getting Reggie Miller comparisons during the playoffs....
                - Mike Conley somehow ascended and became a top 5 PG because of the Grizzlies run.
                - Iman Shumpert and Avery Bradley are considered guys with "star" potential when both players are just defensive stopper role-players. Jeff Green is another guy that's being seriously overrated now that people see him play more in Boston


                It's just ridiculous honestly

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                • Mike Conley, top 5 point guard. Klay Thompson, Reggie Miller. Where are you getting this stuff? I don't doubt that you heard that but are you just talking about some random casual guys on the street or twitter? Some emotional TV commentator? Jeremy Lin is still an MVP caliber player in the eyes of some. I heard Donatas Motiejunas is the next Aldridge, but that's just some 0.01% of basketball fanbase.. the other 99.99% see a scrub.

                  To be overrated, I think a guy has to be overrated by most people, most media, or especially the teams themselves.

                  Comment


                  • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
                    Mike Conley, top 5 point guard. Klay Thompson, Reggie Miller. Where are you getting this stuff? I don't doubt that you heard that but are you just talking about some random casual guys on the street or twitter? Some emotional TV commentator? Jeremy Lin is still an MVP caliber player in the eyes of some. I heard Donatas Motiejunas is the next Aldridge, but that's just some 0.01% of basketball fanbase.. the other 99.99% see a scrub.

                    To be overrated, I think a guy has to be overrated by most people, most media, or especially the teams themselves.
                    Just search "mike conley is a top pg" in google. Look at how much crap comes up about him being one. It's all from May 2013 right around the time the Grizzlies were doing well in the playoffs.

                    There's an entire ESPN Insider article about Klay Thompson being the next Reggie Miller: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...-reggie-miller. And it's also been discussed on many basketball forums.

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                    • TRex wrote: View Post
                      The only SF's that i would take ahead of Gay.

                      1. LeBron
                      2. Durant
                      3. Carmelo
                      4. George

                      That's it.
                      I'll buy you a beer if Rudy becomes more efficient than Kawhi next season.

                      Comment


                      • Yeah, i remember that Reggie Miller article, but is this a popular opinion now? At the time it was written, I think most casual fans didn't even know Klay Thompson's name.

                        Whenever there's a new player who reaches a high level of play, especially an all star level, there are going to be a lot of people giving him the credit he deserves. And among that crowd, there are always a few voices who go over the top. I remember a Memphis fan claiming that Mike Conley = Chris Paul a while ago. But that's just a voice, it doesn't make him overrated.
                        If I asked most basketball fans, who was a better overall player last year, would they say Mike Conley or Rajon Rondo? I suspect it would be Rondo, even though Conley has an extremely strong case.

                        I could really google "{X player} is a top {Y position}" for any new player who gets near all star level, and there will be some overstatements that go against popular opinion. I don't think it means they are all overrated.

                        Comment


                        • jimmie wrote: View Post
                          Why not just say "Lebron" and leave it at that? I mean, if you're just blue-skying, and ignoring any variables that might affect "value" outside of pure, individual basketball ability, then why not just take the best?

                          In other words, what are you trying to say here? Hopefully it's not that you would keep Rudy Gay over every other SF in the league, regardless of salary, fit with the other players on your team, contribution to winning, etc.
                          The first paragraph: To quote yourself from the 2nd paragraph, "what are you trying to say here" ? Seems a tad senseless in regard to TRex's post, where his obvious intent is to rate Rudy 5th best SF, not simply say who's the best.

                          Second paragraph: I'm not trying to speak for TRex, but I don't think he was trying to cover re-direction straw man arguments about economics and fit.

                          Comment


                          • TRex wrote: View Post
                            The only SF's that i would take ahead of Gay.

                            1. LeBron
                            2. Durant
                            3. Carmelo
                            4. George

                            That's it.
                            You see what I mean? This is exactly what irks me when I say I get the impression now that Paul George is being ridiculously overrated. Paul George is now being spoken of in the same sentence as: Melo, Lebron and Durant? Seriously?

                            Offensively, George just IS NOT that good yet. Not even as good as Gay either. People can debate that subjectively, but the key offensive metric I haven’t noticed people taking into account here is Usage %. Given how astute the posters on RR are, I’m surprised it is being overlooked.

                            For me, when I want to do a quick & dirty offensive comparison of 2 or more players, I go back to the Dean Oliver metrics: ORTG & USG. What I do multiply the USG/20 times the ORTG to get an adjusted ORTG? Why divide the USG by 20? Because if each of the 5 players on the court are “pulling their weight” on offense, then each of them can bear an offensive ‘burden’ of 1/5 of the offense at a respectable ORTG. In practice, it’s much different. Some guys have almost no ability to create their own offense or have limited variety of ways to score - low USG, but highly efficient (e.g. Tyson Chandler). Some guys are extremely talented and can always create a half decent shot in just about any scenario, but are highly inefficient (e.g Rudy Gay, Allen Iverson). A rare few are just plain offensive beasts (Lebron, Durant). So playing a guy like Melo who bears 35% of the offense, allows you to play at least one (if not 2) low usage role players like Tyson Chandler and not hurt your offense.

                            As Dean Oliver showed, there is something called the ‘skill curve’ on offense. As soon as a player hit is usage ‘plateau’ his ORTG drops off steeply. Why? Because once a player gets up to 25% usage on offense with decent efficiency, then the other team starts specifically ‘game-planning’ to stop that player (i.e. double teams, fouling, taking the ball out of his hands, defensive specialists, etc…). The more skilled the player, the higher usage he can maintain while keeping good ORTG. 25% usage at ORTG > 110 is already all-star level. 30% USG at ORTG > 110 is potential HoF.

                            Guys like Melo, Lebron and Durant can do it. But George is only at a slightly above average 23.5% usage with a very pedestrian 104 ORTG. Not to mention that he also has 2 excellent offensive teammates (Hibbert & West) who other teams must game plan for. In fact, David West bears a higher burden of the Indy offence (24.4% USG) with much higher efficiency (110 ORTG). George is really close second option, with Hibbert not far behind. We saw that in the playoffs, actually.

                            So taking those 5 players, + West into account. I calculate an adjusted ORTG, or aORTG = USG/20 x ORTG:

                            Rudy Gay (as Raptor): USG = 29.1, ORTG = 99, aORTG = 144
                            Lebron: USG = 30.2, ORTG = 125, aORTG = 189
                            Durant: USG = 29.8, ORTG = 122, aORTG = 182
                            Melo: USG = 35.6, ORTG = 112, aORTG = 199
                            Paul George: USG = 23.5, ORTG = 104, aORTG = 122
                            David West: USG = 24.4, ORTG = 110, aORTG = 134

                            It’s not even close. George is barely ranks as a ‘pseudo-star’, not even in the class of Rudy Gay (in an off year).

                            So, who are the real stars of the league? Just doing a quick sort on USG > 25 + ORTG > 110 + MP > 1000, it’s exactly the guys you would expect with possibly Brook Lopez being a bit of a surprise. Lopez is a legit all-star, at least offensively. Paul George, not so much.

                            Rank Player USG ORTG PER
                            1 LeBron James 30.2 125 31.6
                            2 Kevin Durant 29.8 122 28.3
                            3 Carmelo Anthony 35.6 112 24.8
                            4 Brook Lopez 28.6 114 24.7
                            5 Dwyane Wade 29.5 112 24.0
                            6 Russell Westbrook 32.8 111 23.9
                            7 Kobe Bryant 31.9 112 23.0
                            8 James Harden 29.0 116 23.0
                            9 Tony Parker 27.7 116 23.0
                            10 Blake Griffin 25.4 114 22.4
                            11 Stephen Curry 26.4 115 21.3

                            Comment


                            • golden wrote: View Post
                              You see what I mean? This is exactly what irks me when I say I get the impression now that Paul George is being ridiculously overrated. Paul George is now being spoken of in the same sentence as: Melo, Lebron and Durant? Seriously?

                              Offensively, George just IS NOT that good yet. Not even as good as Gay either. People can debate that subjectively, but the key offensive metric I haven’t noticed people taking into account here is Usage %. Given how astute the posters on RR are, I’m surprised it is being overlooked.

                              For me, when I want to do a quick & dirty offensive comparison of 2 or more players, I go back to the Dean Oliver metrics: ORTG & USG. What I do multiply the USG/20 times the ORTG to get an adjusted ORTG? Why divide the USG by 20? Because if each of the 5 players on the court are “pulling their weight” on offense, then each of them can bear an offensive ‘burden’ of 1/5 of the offense at a respectable ORTG. In practice, it’s much different. Some guys have almost no ability to create their own offense or have limited variety of ways to score - low USG, but highly efficient (e.g. Tyson Chandler). Some guys are extremely talented and can always create a half decent shot in just about any scenario, but are highly inefficient (e.g Rudy Gay, Allen Iverson). A rare few are just plain offensive beasts (Lebron, Durant). So playing a guy like Melo who bears 35% of the offense, allows you to play at least one (if not 2) low usage role players like Tyson Chandler and not hurt your offense.

                              As Dean Oliver showed, there is something called the ‘skill curve’ on offense. As soon as a player hit is usage ‘plateau’ his ORTG drops off steeply. Why? Because once a player gets up to 25% usage on offense with decent efficiency, then the other team starts specifically ‘game-planning’ to stop that player (i.e. double teams, fouling, taking the ball out of his hands, defensive specialists, etc…). The more skilled the player, the higher usage he can maintain while keeping good ORTG. 25% usage at ORTG > 110 is already all-star level. 30% USG at ORTG > 110 is potential HoF.

                              Guys like Melo, Lebron and Durant can do it. But George is only at a slightly above average 23.5% usage with a very pedestrian 104 ORTG. Not to mention that he also has 2 excellent offensive teammates (Hibbert & West) who other teams must game plan for. In fact, David West bears a higher burden of the Indy offence (24.4% USG) with much higher efficiency (110 ORTG). George is really close second option, with Hibbert not far behind. We saw that in the playoffs, actually.

                              So taking those 5 players, + West into account. I calculate an adjusted ORTG, or aORTG = USG/20 x ORTG:

                              Rudy Gay (as Raptor): USG = 29.1, ORTG = 99, aORTG = 144
                              Lebron: USG = 30.2, ORTG = 125, aORTG = 189
                              Durant: USG = 29.8, ORTG = 122, aORTG = 182
                              Melo: USG = 35.6, ORTG = 112, aORTG = 199
                              Paul George: USG = 23.5, ORTG = 104, aORTG = 122
                              David West: USG = 24.4, ORTG = 110, aORTG = 134

                              It’s not even close. George is barely ranks as a ‘pseudo-star’, not even in the class of Rudy Gay (in an off year).

                              So, who are the real stars of the league? Just doing a quick sort on USG > 25 + ORTG > 110 + MP > 1000, it’s exactly the guys you would expect with possibly Brook Lopez being a bit of a surprise. Lopez is a legit all-star, at least offensively. Paul George, not so much.

                              Rank Player USG ORTG PER
                              1 LeBron James 30.2 125 31.6
                              2 Kevin Durant 29.8 122 28.3
                              3 Carmelo Anthony 35.6 112 24.8
                              4 Brook Lopez 28.6 114 24.7
                              5 Dwyane Wade 29.5 112 24.0
                              6 Russell Westbrook 32.8 111 23.9
                              7 Kobe Bryant 31.9 112 23.0
                              8 James Harden 29.0 116 23.0
                              9 Tony Parker 27.7 116 23.0
                              10 Blake Griffin 25.4 114 22.4
                              11 Stephen Curry 26.4 115 21.3
                              Bravo.
                              The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

                              Comment


                              • Usage rate matters, and it's an interesting take, but that calculation puts way too much value on chucking shots over efficiency. That formula considers Rudy Gay a better offensive piece than Chris Paul, or puts this year's Mike Beasley over Kyle Lowry or Mike Conley. Rudy Gay is better than 1996 Pippen too (the 72 wins year). Prime 2009-11 Pau Gasol from title years gets ranked very low, much lower than Rudy Gay or even Ben Gordon from this year's Bobcats.
                                Basically, take a low efficiency chucker from a bad team, and he's probably going to rank higher than a good second option from a great team.

                                Still, it's an interesting direction, even if a simple [usage]X[OffRtg] formula is probably not the way to go.

                                PS: how come that particular TRex's post has caused several upset replies? The guy is saying he'd take 4 guys over Rudy Gay. All of them are better players than Rudy Gay. He's not comparing these 4 players among each other, either.

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