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  • #91
    Fully wrote: View Post
    I don't have a strong opinion on whether Gay will opt in/out at the end of the year, but I think you're framing this slightly incorrectly. He's not really "walking away" from $19 million guaranteed as much as he is walking into $50 million guaranteed, just over a longer period of time.
    Of course I mean he's walking away from $19 mil to sign $12-ish mil. (or whatever). He easily stands to "lose" $7-9 mil. that year if he opts out of this contract. Supposedly he'll make it up in his next contract, but I think the drop-off from his current salary to his next one is too much to make up. If he opts out he'll sign his next contract as a 28 year old. If he doesn't, he'll sign his next contract as a 29 year old. I don't see him worrying about being shortchanged by hitting the free market as a 29 year old.

    I'm not really arguing for/against either - just honest thoughts.
    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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    • #92
      S.R. wrote: View Post
      Of course I mean he's walking away from $19 mil to sign $12-ish mil. (or whatever). He easily stands to "lose" $7-9 mil. that year if he opts out of this contract. Supposedly he'll make it up in his next contract, but I think the drop-off from his current salary to his next one is too much to make up. If he opts out he'll sign his next contract as a 28 year old. If he doesn't, he'll sign his next contract as a 29 year old. I don't see him worrying about being shortchanged by hitting the free market as a 29 year old.

      I'm not really arguing for/against either - just honest thoughts.
      I'm inclined to agree with you.

      Contracts are certainly not being handed out like they use to.

      $19M is unheard of today except for the select few, upper echelon, legit franchise talents - which Gay is not.

      I also think he'd rather be looking for his final pay day at 29 versus 32. It is not only the $7M or so "lost" next year it is also about what would he make at 33. I think he makes more at 33 signing when he is 29 than he would make at 33 looking for that season.

      Thinking about this actually gives me a shred of hope that his trade value might be a little higher due to the (my opinion) higher probability he signs for next year..... or maybe it makes it lower.... damn, confusion sets in again.

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      • #93
        Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

        Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.

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        • #94
          Xixak wrote: View Post
          Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

          Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.
          And yet Iggy is by far the superior defender and has USA basketball stamp of approval. Gay's just another volume scorer in the grand scheme of things. I'd be shocked if Gay was offered more than $12.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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          • #95
            Xixak wrote: View Post
            Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

            Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala.
            Iggy is the better playmaker, facilitator and defender, though, all of which were important to the teams chasing him - teams that already had good primary options (Golden State had Steph Curry, Sacramento had Boogie and at the time Tyreke Evans, Detroit had the Monroe/Drummond frontcourt, etc.).

            I actually agree that Rudy can probably get $14 million somewhere in 2014, though. I think LA will pony up for him if/when they don't get LeBron (and Cleveland probably will as well); I think New York will chase him if they lose Melo; I think several other teams who want to pretend they're one key piece away from contending will offer him money as well (your Dallases, your Denvers, et cetera). Rudy's good enough that people will overspend in the hopes that he finally lives up to his potential.

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            • #96
              Xixak wrote: View Post
              Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

              Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.
              I'm not so sure about that. Whether it's completely fair or not, Gay's stock seems to have pretty much bottomed out. Every list of overrated or overpaid players from the last year had Gay in one of the top spots. I'm expecting a pretty big pay slash for him on his next deal barring a phenomenal year for him in the interim. $12 million / year seems realistic.

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              • #97
                Matt52 wrote: View Post
                I didn't think these thoughts merited a thread but not sure where to put it, so I came here......


                1) When looking around the league, combing each team's salary page at Mark Deeks' site ShamSports.com, there are not a lot of those really, really bad contracts anymore.... well, not ones that go beyond 2014-15 (i.e. most bad deals have just 2 years left on them).

                What are the worst non-expiring contracts in the league?

                Landry Fields, 2 years, $13M
                Gerald Wallace, 3 years, $31M
                Carlos Boozer, 2 years, $32M
                Amar'e Stoudemire, 2 years, $43M
                Jason Richardson, 2 years, $13M
                Jeremy Lin, 2 years, $20M
                Eric Gordon, 3 years, $45M

                Did I miss any? (No extensions included, like DeRozan, or contracts signed this summer because we don't know how they play out, like Evans).

                It would appear the new CBA and luxury tax has scared the majority of the league in to smaller contracts with less years and more scrutiny. What do you think?



                2) There is going to be a lot of salary cap money to be spent in the next few years.

                Looking at 2014, nearly half the league has significant cap space (click link on bottom - lots of unknowns with options, resignings could change things):









                http://www.hoopsworld.com/looking-to...14s-salary-cap
                Bargnani, Nene (if he keeps getting injured), Joe Johnson, Gay, Perkins, probably a few more.

                But it's not as bad as it used to be, indeed. I think the biggest thing is the new contract length. Those old 6 year Bird contracts used to hurt. In most cases, people start to look really overpaid several years into their contracts, once injuries and age piles up.

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                • #98
                  BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
                  Bargnani, Nene (if he keeps getting injured), Joe Johnson, Gay, Perkins, probably a few more.

                  But it's not as bad as it used to be, indeed. I think the biggest thing is the new contract length. Those old 6 year Bird contracts used to hurt. In most cases, people start to look really overpaid several years into their contracts, once injuries and age piles up.
                  All of those deals were signed before the new CBA with the exception of Nene - who Ujiri promptly traded.

                  Do you remember the old 7 year contracts? Holy crap. I believe it was the summer of '97 when just about everyone was getting a 7 year, $100M contract.

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                  • #99
                    Xixak wrote: View Post
                    Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

                    Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.
                    Anything's possible (and there's always a GM willing to overpay), but I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Gay got $15 mil. Look at more recent contracts in the $14-$15 mil range - this is James Harden and Russel Westbrook money now. Even those guys' deals max out at $17.5-ish on the tail end.

                    Reasonable contracts at $12 mil. - Rondo, Tony Parker, Al Horford, David West, Igoudala. Gay has nice ppg numbers, but in terms of contributing to team success? I'd put him on par with that group (and I'd gladly trade him for a couple of them).

                    Also, Iggy may have turned down $14 mil, but he signed for $12 mil. dropping to $11. He's also made the All-Star team, the US Olympic squad, the Defensive 2nd team, and is still 29. It's a bit of a stretch to argue from his contract that Gay will get $15 - I'd suggest Iggy's a good argument for Gay getting closer to $12 mil.

                    Good for Rudy if he opts out and another GM offers him $15 mil./per, but it'd be even better for the Raptors! I'd like to see how Ujiri would use that cap space...
                    Last edited by S.R.; Thu Sep 12, 2013, 12:30 AM.
                    "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                    • S.R. wrote: View Post
                      Reasonable contracts at $12 mil. - Rondo, Tony Parker, Al Horford, David West, Igoudala. Gay has nice ppg numbers, but in terms of contributing to team success? I'd put him on par with that group (and I'd gladly trade him for a couple of them).
                      The only one on that list I wouldn't trade Gay for straight up would be David West, frankly.

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                      • We forget about Brooklyn.
                        I guess Прохоров will be willing to spend another 15 mil. and he will have when Pierce gone after 2013-14.
                        And the market is good.
                        No new friends (c)

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                        • magoon wrote: View Post
                          The only one on that list I wouldn't trade Gay for straight up would be David West, frankly.
                          And only because of age. West is a better player.

                          Anyway, most of those players are underpaid at 12 mil and I'm certain they'd get more than 12 mil on the open market. Parker has been a top 10 player in the league for the last two years, he's easily a max guy, but the Spurs locked him up before that. Horford and Rondo, if healthy, are both max or near max players.

                          If Gay enters open market, I could see him get 12 mil or maybe even 14 mil if he has a solid year.

                          Comment


                          • A little reality:


                            richard

                            do you see any trade senerio for rudy gay of the raptors?the same gm had carmelo,and got alot in return?

                            Steve Kyler

                            Rudy is not nearly the player Carmelo was/is…

                            Rudy is a named player, beyond that, his stats do not line up with the hype surrounding him. Equally he’s going to be able to influence where he lands because of his Player Option for free agency.

                            So the question is who is going to give up a ton for Rudy Gay knowing they either lose him in free agency or they have to pay him a monster new deal?

                            Not sure that’s an ideal situation to get a real return. You have to have a motivated buyer to get a hefty return.

                            http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-rumors...-kyler-9162013

                            Charlotte

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                            • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                              A little reality:





                              Charlotte
                              I agree with Kyler's assessment of the situation, but there will always be teams that are "motivated buyers." Each year there are teams that take on the 'untradeable contracts', and what's more is that they give value for it. Bargnani, Turk, Joe Johnson, etc.

                              Look at last year's trade deadline as an example. Milwaukee was motivated as they wanted to do what they could to make the playoffs. The did what they could to get JJ Redick out of Milwaukee. Just like Gay, Redick could walk at the end of the year, or they would have to pay him good money. Orlando gave up Tobias Harris in order to complete the trade.

                              There are always teams that are motivated for one reason or another, and if Ujiri decides to do so, Gay will be moveable for positive assets.
                              http://twitter.com/m_shantz

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                              • Shantz wrote: View Post
                                I agree with Kyler's assessment of the situation, but there will always be teams that are "motivated buyers." Each year there are teams that take on the 'untradeable contracts', and what's more is that they give value for it. Bargnani, Turk, Joe Johnson, etc.

                                Look at last year's trade deadline as an example. Milwaukee was motivated as they wanted to do what they could to make the playoffs. The did what they could to get JJ Redick out of Milwaukee. Just like Gay, Redick could walk at the end of the year, or they would have to pay him good money. Orlando gave up Tobias Harris in order to complete the trade.

                                There are always teams that are motivated for one reason or another, and if Ujiri decides to do so, Gay will be moveable for positive assets.
                                After the Bargs trade, I believe anything is possible.

                                Gay's certainly tradeable - he's still a very productive player, and I think he's becoming underrated because he's overpaid (if that makes sense). He's a better defender than people think because of his "volume scorer" tag. The only question is what would be coming back in return. He's getting near the end of his contract, which is good for the Raps and probably makes him more tradeable.
                                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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