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MU says "wait and see" approach, how does the schedule play out?

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  • #16
    jimmie wrote: View Post
    The "wait-and-see"/"patience" mantra from management, is I think, 2 things:

    1. Not telling your fanbase OR your players that you think your current roster has a '1st-round exit' ceiling so that fans continue to come to games, and players continue to try hard; and

    2. Providing time for certain players to hopefully max out their trade value and for potential trade partners to sort out their needs.

    I think Ujiri definitely already has a solid idea of who he thinks works and who doesn't in the long-term plan, and is just trying to ensure maximum ROI. This approach is far more "patience" than a true "wait and see what these guys can do together", IMO...
    I get the 2nd half of that statement (ie. a team may need to see where they are at vs the league, injuries, are players fitting/developing as expected etc).

    But I have a hard time with the first half. Is playing X more games in a season really going to impact Gay or Derozans or Lowry's or whoever's value? I think these guys have enough history that teams would be rather confident in knowing what they are getting whether thats today, a month from now or at the trade deadline.

    I think your right that he could be (I don't necessarily think he is, but I'll explain that below) waiting for a better scenario to arise, but I don't think playing time is really going to do much to raise the value of players on this team. (not saying its impossible, just unlikely)

    It's pretty hard to read the tea leaves on this one. I have no idea how you look at a 20, 30 or 40 game sample size and determine the next 5 years of the organization. Don't you already have that plan in mind? When Ujiri was hired all the talk was about how he and Leiweke were on the same page: was that page taking Colangelo's roster, adding Tyler Hansbrough, and crossing their fingers? Seems highly unlikely to me.

    So, I have trouble taking Ujiri completely at face value when he says it's wait and see mode, in part because I don't really see the end game with that approach. As has been said repeatedly (even by the optimists), the top end for this group is low playoff seed and the team is basically capped out for all intents and purposes. So, even if this roster is above average (or even good), there doesn't seem to be a viable way to get it to really, really good or elite or great.
    What really makes me question where this team is going or going to do this season comes in a few forms

    1) Is new ownership really going to make a difference? I understand that as telecommunications services content is important Bell/Rog. However, for all the gripping people did about OTPP, from a business perspective, their business model was damn effective in this market. "If its not broken don't fix it" applies to the business world to - given the cash flow created by MLSE, I'm not as confident as some that ownership is really down with any sort of potentially costly change

    2) Its not easy to make trades in the NBA, particularily making trades of equal footing (ie. a trade is usually win now for one and lose now hopefully win later for another). The CBA makes things difficult. Toronto's cap situation puts limitations on moves. There seems to be a real lack of valuable assets (that Toronto would comfortably part with anyways). Then ofcourse their is Masai usual references to wanting to trade for value and ofcourse 'Karma'.

    Even if Masai/TL want to go about making a significant change to this roster, there are no shortages of potential barriers to doing that, atleast in the short term.

    I completely agree with your final sentence, and maybe I'm just cynical here, but I really don't see this team, with this roster predominantly intact, playing out this season as an unrealistic possibility. I can say without question I very much hope I'm wrong here.

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    • #17
      Matt52 wrote: View Post
      He wouldn't be very good if he shared it with everybody either.

      This is the point that really soured me with BC. He shared each and every detail of his plan only to do something much different a short time after. If you are going to sell something to the fanbase, make sure you see it through unless a spectacular opportunity presents itself instead.
      Maybe. But I think most of the league has a good idea of what everyone else is doing. There is definetely times where teams hold things close to their chest, leak some disinformation or whatever. But these guys all talk, network with each other, and generally have their thumb on the pulse of the league. (Don't get me wrong I'm not claiming they are all necessarily good or equal at it - however just like most interconnected businesses, they tend to have a good idea what each other are up to).

      I mean even as fans I'm sure we can come to a comfortable idea of what 90% of the league is up to atleast broadly. The Raptors are just sitting in the 10% range right now - but if Masai has even been on the phone with any GM they'll have good idea of what he'd like to do. If he hasn't been on the phone thats probably a pretty good indication to.

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      • #18
        Craiger wrote: View Post
        Maybe. But I think most of the league has a good idea of what everyone else is doing. There is definetely times where teams hold things close to their chest, leak some disinformation or whatever. But these guys all talk, network with each other, and generally have their thumb on the pulse of the league. (Don't get me wrong I'm not claiming they are all necessarily good or equal at it - however just like most interconnected businesses, they tend to have a good idea what each other are up to).

        I mean even as fans I'm sure we can come to a comfortable idea of what 90% of the league is up to atleast broadly. The Raptors are just sitting in the 10% range right now - but if Masai has even been on the phone with any GM they'll have good idea of what he'd like to do. If he hasn't been on the phone thats probably a pretty good indication to.
        I'm not sure I agree.

        There are teams that definitely keep cards close to vest. OKC, HOU, SAS, UTA, LAL, BOS, MIA all immediately come to mind.

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        • #19
          Matt52 wrote: View Post
          I'm not sure I agree.

          There are teams that definitely keep cards close to vest. OKC, HOU, SAS, UTA, LAL, BOS, MIA all immediately come to mind.
          Those teams are least likely talking to each other, if not as much to the rest of the league. When half the league is made up of former Spurs associates, there's a good chance that they talk to each other before they talk to an "outsider". Therefore Craiger's point would remain valid.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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          • #20
            Axel wrote: View Post
            Those teams are least likely talking to each other, if not as much to the rest of the league. When half the league is made up of former Spurs associates, there's a good chance that they talk to each other before they talk to an "outsider". Therefore Craiger's point would remain valid.
            The NBA is a fraternity but at the end of the day it is a cut throat business.

            I'd be surprised if teams are openly talking about what they want to do.

            Craiger originally said, "....but I think most of the league has a good idea of what everyone else is doing...."

            Might teams have an idea of what they are doing? Sure. Are they making assumptions? I think so. I'd be shocked if teams are sitting down with one another or texting back and forth saying, "This is what we're doing."

            Also of the teams i listed only OKC and UTA are disciples of SAS.

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            • #21
              Axel wrote: View Post
              I honestly surprised that .500 is good enough in your opinion.
              Well if you think MU is expecting anything higher than .500, then you must think he's got some pretty rosey coloured glasses on.
              MU is a realist; he knows he doesn't have world beaters on his hands. But he also knows he doesn't have the Washington Generals. Somewhere in between is where we sit. I expect if that proves accurate, than MU will push ahead, not fall behind.

              Axel wrote: View Post
              To me .500 ball is just another season on the treadmill, with maybe a first round sweep to the Heat in the process.
              Which, at this stage in the development, is exactly what this team needs in my opinion.

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              • #22
                Craiger wrote: View Post
                But I have a hard time with the first half. Is playing X more games in a season really going to impact Gay or Derozans or Lowry's or whoever's value? I think these guys have enough history that teams would be rather confident in knowing what they are getting whether thats today, a month from now or at the trade deadline.
                The value increase is coming from OTHER teams getting aware of the increased value of players so that the other teams can convince themselves to trade - and to offer more. Trades are easier to sell (and to profit from) if there's a buzz.
                Last edited by GoingBig; Tue Oct 22, 2013, 04:23 PM.

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                • #23
                  Matt52 wrote: View Post
                  The NBA is a fraternity but at the end of the day it is a cut throat business.

                  I'd be surprised if teams are openly talking about what they want to do.

                  Craiger originally said, "....but I think most of the league has a good idea of what everyone else is doing...."

                  Might teams have an idea of what they are doing? Sure. Are they making assumptions? I think so. I'd be shocked if teams are sitting down with one another or texting back and forth saying, "This is what we're doing."

                  Also of the teams i listed only OKC and UTA are disciples of SAS.
                  Well of course they'd have to make assumptions, after all they wouldn't get to where they are by showing their hands completely. But their assumptions are likely to be pretty good, at least a heck of a lot better than what we can come up with. These guys all know each other and know how each think/do business.

                  By talk, I didn't mean have frank open discussions like we do on the forums, but gauging player values, feeling out options, hearing the buzz of who's looking to deal and what they are asking for and what-not are all very normal for this type of industry.
                  Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                  If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                  • #24
                    It's funny how everybody keeps asking or questioning MU on: what's the plan? what's the plan? MU's brief track record with Denver, and even this off-season seems to indicate that: (1) he's open to trading anybody, anytime & (2) he likes to pounce opportunistically on teams under pressure to make moves (i.e. desperation), (3) he is good at maximizing return assets for each transactions, (4) he is a good evaluator of talent, (5) he doesn't typically overpay his own players, (6) if he makes a mistake, he will fix it as quick as possible.

                    I think the key point is #2 - opportunistically pouncing on the situations of other teams. There is no way MU can actually say what his strategy is going to be, simply because there is no way to know what situations will arise. Injuries, chemistry, media & fan expectations, and a host of factors will play into a team's situation, which cannot be predicted in advance.

                    So I totally believe that the gameplan is: let-the-guys-play and "wait & see" how we do and what becomes available to improve the team.

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                    • #25
                      Matt52 wrote: View Post
                      The NBA is a fraternity but at the end of the day it is a cut throat business.

                      I'd be surprised if teams are openly talking about what they want to do.

                      Craiger originally said, "....but I think most of the league has a good idea of what everyone else is doing...."

                      Might teams have an idea of what they are doing? Sure. Are they making assumptions? I think so. I'd be shocked if teams are sitting down with one another or texting back and forth saying, "This is what we're doing."

                      Also of the teams i listed only OKC and UTA are disciples of SAS.
                      Sure they are making assumptions. But are they unreasonable ones? Does any team not think SAS and OKC are looking to win now? Aren't looking to move Durant and Duncan? Know their market size and what the likelyhood they'll be willing pay X dollars in salary? Where holes on those respective teams do or do not exist?

                      Even if teams want to hide some things, but simply being observant will give things away.

                      I don't think every GM has a checklist of 450 players and each teams wishlist for their players. But other GMs will have a pretty good idea of what are teams are need/want (3pt specialist, cap space, draft picks whatever) in part because they have a pretty good idea of where teams are headed or where they are at (rebuild, win now.. whatever)

                      The NBA may be cut throat, but that doesn't make it clandestine.

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                      • #26
                        joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                        Well if you think MU is expecting anything higher than .500, then you must think he's got some pretty rosey coloured glasses on.
                        MU is a realist; he knows he doesn't have world beaters on his hands. But he also knows he doesn't have the Washington Generals. Somewhere in between is where we sit. I expect if that proves accurate, than MU will push ahead, not fall behind.



                        Which, at this stage in the development, is exactly what this team needs in my opinion.
                        I agree that MU is a realist (which is why I think making moves sooner rather than later is the most likely scenario), but I disagree that MU is willing to get into treadmill status, which is basically what .500 ball gives you.

                        I'd rather a lottery pick than a sweep. Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets. If you know the team isn't going to contending status, and championships are the goal, why would you waste the opportunity? Once KL and Gay and re-signed, they become less appealing trade assets, and we miss out on a stacked draft. I'm not talking about all out Wiggins level bad, but somewhere in the 8-12 range in this draft still gets you a very good player (PG Andrew Harrison or SF Glenn Robinson to replace KL or Gay).
                        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                        • #27
                          GoingBig wrote: View Post
                          The value increase is coming from OTHER teams getting aware of the increased value of players so that the other teams can convince themselves to trade - and to offer more. Trades are easier to sell (and to profit from) if there's a buzz.
                          6 of one or half a dozen of another.

                          That is still assuming that more playing time will increase a players value with someone in the first place.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Here's my theory on this "wait and see" approach ---

                            My belief is that we will blow it up either way. Not as in down to ground zero, but as in remove all players that Colangelo brought in. If I take over a job and the previous guy was a major f*ck-up, I pretty much feel that I'd have to get rid of everything that he did.

                            But MU is no fool, he wasn't going to trade Rudy Gay for pennies on the dollar. His names been all over the media about how Memphis got better when they traded him. There's no way in hell I'm trading this guy while the perceived notion is that he is a terribly inefficient scorer with a franchise killing contract. Or trade Kyle Lowry after a pretty much disastrously inconsistent season.

                            So when MU says "wait and see", it's really just his way of saying give me 20-30 games and if we're doing well, then I can get great value on these players. And even if we're doing poorly, I can probably still get better value than if I had blown it up in the offseason. Even if you're not an advanced stats type of guy, you have to agree that Rudy Gay's value has never been lower than it got during the offseason. Same for Kyle Lowry. One injury on a contending team and suddenly I'm their best friend. Either way I'm selling, but if I do it at the right time I can actually make my team better without starting from scratch.

                            In the meantime he's surround these trade pieces with cheap and short contracts that can hold their own. It's a smart strategy and I'm looking forward to the fireworks (trades) this season.
                            your pal,
                            ebrian

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                            • #29
                              Axel wrote: View Post
                              With 2 sets of back-to-back games, the Raps face Miami-@Charlotte, and then @Indiana-home vs Utah, the Raps could lose winnable games (@ Charlotte and home vs Utah) if they are fatigued from their games the night before against Top Tier teams. If the Raps were to somehow keep it close into the 4th Q against Miami or the Pacers, we might waste a lot of energy that could cost us in the 2nd, more winnable, game. Raps went 7-7 in back-to-backs last season (including the Bargs game-winning missed foul call vs Charlotte). So assuming we'd win one and lose one is fairly reasonable.
                              It doesn't look like you factored when other teams are playing back-to-backs and we benefit from it, did you? For example, that @Charlotte game, they play @New York the night before. So both teams are going to be equally fatigued. Same with that Utah game, they play in Chicago the night before.

                              Games where both teams are playing the second of back-to-backs:
                              Nov 6, @Charlotte (0 days rest, both teams travel)
                              Dec 14, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Jan 8, vs Detroit (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Nov 2, @ Milwaukee (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Dec 28, vs New York (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Nov 9, vs Utah (0 DR for them, 0D DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Jan 1, vs Indiana (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)

                              Games where we're on the second of back-to-backs, the other team is rested:
                              Dec 23, @ San Antonio (1 DR for them, 0 DR for us, only TOR travels)

                              Games where we're rested, and the other team is playing the second of a back-to-back:
                              Dec 18, vs Charlotte (0 DR for them, 3 DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Dec 31, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 2 DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Dec 22, @ OKC (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)
                              Jan 5, @ Miami (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)

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                              • #30
                                octothorp wrote: View Post
                                It doesn't look like you factored when other teams are playing back-to-backs and we benefit from it, did you? For example, that @Charlotte game, they play @New York the night before. So both teams are going to be equally fatigued. Same with that Utah game, they play in Chicago the night before.

                                Games where both teams are playing the second of back-to-backs:
                                Nov 6, @Charlotte (0 days rest, both teams travel)
                                Dec 14, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Jan 8, vs Detroit (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Nov 2, @ Milwaukee (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Dec 28, vs New York (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Nov 9, vs Utah (0 DR for them, 0D DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Jan 1, vs Indiana (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)

                                Games where we're on the second of back-to-backs, the other team is rested:
                                Dec 23, @ San Antonio (1 DR for them, 0 DR for us, only TOR travels)

                                Games where we're rested, and the other team is playing the second of a back-to-back:
                                Dec 18, vs Charlotte (0 DR for them, 3 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Dec 31, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 2 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Dec 22, @ OKC (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                Jan 5, @ Miami (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)
                                I considered doing the extra research but decided against it because on the whole, these type of things should balance out over the course of a season. Since the Raps were 7-7 in back-to-backs last year, regardless of the other teams travel schedule, it's fairly safe to assume we'll be about 50% again this year. Hence the win one, lose one scenario I predicted.

                                Valid point though.
                                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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