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A new take on tanking - opponents of this need not click this thread

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  • Matt52 wrote: View Post
    This is how I look at the situation:


    State of current roster:
    The Raptors are not currently a championship contender, they may not even be a playoff contender.
    To reach championship contender they have to do it without free agency, without any high draft picks, with their highest paid players not even all-stars let alone all-NBA, and with few value contracts.
    The light at the end of the tunnel is a train unless Ross becomes 6th man of the year, JV becomes best C in the league, and DD enters the discussion in the same breath as Kobe, Harden, and Wade (i.e. top 5 SG in the league).

    Ownership:
    I truly believe Bell/Rogers want a championship team from a content perspective and to increase the value of the franchise.
    I truly believe if given the opportunity to compete for a championship, the luxury tax is a non-issue because the profits will be there regardless.

    Management
    I have the utmost faith in Ujiri's basketball decisions.
    I've been down that road with BC but Masai is different.
    Listen to an interview and look at his track record and it speaks for itself.

    JV:
    As great as JV's potential appears to be, he is not a guarantee - few things ever are.
    With that said, JV is at the minimum a starting C for a long time in the league and that is the hardest position to fill - and that is a terrific start.

    Asset Accumulation:
    Another assumption with tanking is you actually get value for the current members of the Raptors core minus JV.
    That might be draft picks or prospects.
    That might be possible or not but I think you can get prospects and/or picks for Lowry, DD, and Gay.

    This years draft at the top:
    The reason to tank would be to get as high as you can with the Raptors own pick.
    This years draft has more elite talent than many years past.
    I think you get a great player in the top 8.
    What if Raps had multiple picks? Could they move up?

    Three drafts to find star(s) or the assets to trade for one/them:
    The Raptors would have the 2014 draft and the 2015 draft to add high draft picks.
    Raptors already have 2 first round picks in 2016.
    The drafted players might be stars or they might be used to trade for one.

    Draft is the way to build with Weltman and MU:
    Proven track record of making most of picks - regardless of position.

    Free agency in 2015, 2016, 2017:
    The Raptors have a lot of money coming off the books in 2015.
    2 years of MU/TL and a year and a half of Drake might change the perspective of the Raptors.
    They could be active in 2015 FA.
    They could also be active in 2016 with the only big contract likely to be JV's extension.

    Ability to go in to the luxury tax 2017 onwards:
    Assuming stars were obtained via draft or trade, Bird Rights would be obtained allowing the Raptors to extend ending contracts (rookie or otherwise).
    Raptors given market and ownership will never face a Harden moment as OKC did.

    A 10 year window:
    Assuming the elite talent was obtained (big assumption I know), the Raptors would have a 10 year window to dominate.
    Current core will never dominate/compete for championship and likely face rebuilding in another 4 years (max) anyways.
    In 4 years JV is entering his prime.
    Nice to have JV in his prime with a championship team vs. rebuilding for 2-3 years and having him in his late 20's as an UFA - you know like the situation with Bosh or LBJ or how about current situations likely to arise with Aldridge and Love.

    Last but certainly not least:

    The last 5 years stench still hangs over this roster:
    This roster's core is still built around a certain Italian.
    Time to rip it down to the studs.
    The above is the theoretical perspective. This is how I would put it in to practice:

    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=m2huemp

    (**BTW Novak is in link above because Hansbrough can't be traded until December 15th, T goes to CHI**)

    Milwaukee: DeRozan and Lowry
    Chicago: Udoh, Hansbrough (after Dec. 15)
    Charlotte: Gay
    Toronto: Boozer, Gordon, Ridnour, Giannis 'Po, 2nd rd pick from Milwaukee (original Raptors), DET/POR 1st from Charlotte, CHA pick & 2015 pick from Bulls

    Why for Charlotte?
    Gay would put them over the bump to make the playoffs. Give up 2 picks but they already have a lot of young guys and they have cap space and financial flexibility to give him big contract extension. The "why didn't they trade for him last year" argument ignores MEM wanted financial flexibility which CHA could not offer as Gordon contract had to be included.

    Why for Milwaukee?
    Lowry>Ridnour, DD>Giannis
    Bucks in constant state of win now. They are all about the playoff games revenue. They are trying to build an arena. Essentially they are getting much better now for potential in 'Po. Even if Lowry walks at end of year, it is essentially DD for Giannas and 2nd round pick. They get to keep Knight. Two very interesting lineup possibilities:

    1:
    PG - Lowry
    SG - DD
    SF- Bulter
    PF- Ilyasova
    C- Sanders
    backup PG - Knight
    6th man - Mayo
    first big - Henson

    2:
    PG - Lowry
    SG - Mayo
    SF- Bulter
    PF- Henson
    C- Sanders
    backup PG - Knight
    6th man - DD
    first big - Ilyasova

    Why for Chicago?
    Cheap owners. They paid tax last year for first time. They are on track to pay it this year. If they pay it next year they pay the repeated tax which adds another $1 to every level over tax. Yes, they can amnesty Boozer this summer but that requires writing him a $16.8M cheque to go away. By making this trade they are under the luxury tax this season and they free up nearly $16M of cap space for next year to sign Mirotic and possibly another significant free agent. Also they remain super competitive with Gibson taking over starting duties, T as backup, and Udoh gives depth. Yes there is a significant price here: 2 first round picks but the Raptors save them over $30M and give them a lot of financial flexibility this summer - keeping Deng becomes a real option then too.

    Why for Toronto?
    1) Draft:
    2014 draft could have up to 6 picks (4 1sts, 2 2nds) - own, POR top 12 protected, CHA top 10 protected, DET top 8 protected
    2015 guaranteed multiple draft picks. (own, CHI and any of 2014 not conveyed).
    2016 guaranteed multiple draft picks. (own, NY, and all picks not yet sent are unprotected).

    2) Financial flexibility:
    2014: Raptors have $42M committed to 7 players with options totaling $3.8M on 4 more players. Add rookie contracts and they could be looking at upwards of $8M in cap space with a bump in the cap to $60M. However, this is not for free agency. This would be for facilitating trades and acquiring assets from teams looking to shed salary for whatever reason. Lots of expiring contracts as well for trades.
    2015: nearly $35M coming off the books and possibly over $40M in cap space. Free agency? Trades? Carry over until 2016?
    2016: JV's extension and maybe Ross due but still enough cap space assuming no big FA in 2015.
    2017 onwards: Bird Rights to resign free agents... luxury tax be damned.

    3) A solid foundation to build and grow for the next decade or more.... rather than looking to rebuild with a JV in his prime in 3-4 years.


    Total speculation on my part but when I am talking about blowing it up, the above is what I mean. Is any of the above possible? Highly unlikely but these are the type of moves I hope to see. Please don't split hairs over "That will never happen!" I know it won't. The concept is what matters here: accumulate prospects, picks, cap space for 2 years, acquire talent, use Bird Rights to keep it, never face an OKC situation.

    Comment


    • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
      It's not hard to see the difference between what he did respond to and what he didn't.
      And you are?

      Comment


      • Axel wrote: View Post
        ~~~~
        So how have I changed my position?
        You most certainly have not. You were one of the original tankers with posts that changed my tune.

        Comment


        • Xixak wrote: View Post
          And you are?
          You are such a disrespectful person. Why the mods allow you to continue is beyond my comprehension.


          To continue the intended topic, which in case we've all forgotten is to determine the level of urgency among those who wish for a massive roster overhaul, I am seriously concerned about the trade market for Gay and Lowry. Right now, both have to be considered rental players at best. Rental player trades don't tend to bring in the best return. The step back may be larger than some are prepared for.
          Last edited by Axel; Fri Oct 25, 2013, 10:22 AM.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

          Comment


          • Matt52 wrote: View Post
            You most certainly have not. You were one of the original tankers with posts that changed my tune.
            I don't think either you nor Axel know how to read.

            I did not say you have flip flopped as tankers. Both of you have been tankers from day 1 (at least since I started posting here regularly at the start of the summer).

            Where you have flip flopped is from the stance of "tank at all costs" to "only tank if we can get the right assets back for our guys". I know that for a fact because this sparked a huge debate between us earlier, when I kept having to explain to you that we don't HAVE to tank if we can't get anything useful back for our guys. Then you started trying to tell me how there's so much inherent value in swapping Gay for Stuckey and Charlie V.

            Comment


            • let it go, xixak. let it go.
              @sweatpantsjer

              Comment


              • Axel wrote: View Post
                You are such a disrespectful person. Why the mods allow you to continue is beyond my comprehension.
                There seems to be a gang/mob mentality on this forum. And the fact that one of the mods (CalgaryRapsFan) is actually one of the spearheads of it irks me.

                I still find it hilarious that he called me out in another thread for saying that if people don't think the thread is useful, they shouldn't post in it. But then commended Matt for saying "opponents of this need not click this thread". I guess it's cool when he agrees with the poster, but an issue when he doesn't.

                Comment


                • Xixak wrote: View Post
                  I do find it funny that I was able to change Matt's stance on this topic. At the start of the summer he was consistently emphasizing how Gay, DD, Lowry etc needed to go at all costs. But now he only wants to move them if we get good value in return.

                  Interesting.

                  Ditto for Axel and CalgaryRapsFan. I'm sure they'll all vehemently deny it now
                  Good luck finding a single quote from me that ever supported an outright tank. The only time I've ever supported such an approach was 2 years ago, when Valanciunas was spending the season in Europe. Once he came over, the tanking window closed for me. A significant retooling is what I've supported since then, consistently.

                  In fact, I've had several arguments against outright tanking, because of the incredible uncertainty about finishing last in the standings, winning the draft lottery and actually making the best/right pick even if you do wind up picking 1st overall in the draft.

                  If you want to start an argument, at least start one based in reality. Cheers.
                  Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Fri Oct 25, 2013, 10:41 AM.

                  Comment


                  • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                    Good luck finding a single quote from me that ever supported an outright tank. The only time I've ever supported such an approach was 2 years ago, when Valanciunas was spending the season in Europe. Once he came over, the tanking window closed for me. A significant retooling is what I've supported since then, consistently.

                    In fact, I've had several arguments against outright tanking, because of the incredible uncertainty about finishing last (ie: 1st for draft lottery), winning the draft lottery and actually making the best/right pick even if you do wind up picking 1st overall in the draft.

                    If you want to start an argument, at least start one based in reality. Cheers.
                    I sent you a PM.

                    Comment


                    • Xixak wrote: View Post
                      While I actually agree with the premise of this thread. Your bias is beginning to become somewhat annoying.
                      What bias?

                      If you read the entire exchange between special1 and myself, including his response to the message you quoted, you'd realize that we actually came to a better mutual understanding of the topic. I enjoyed our exchange and appreciated him taking the time to share his thoughts with me. Funny what a respectful conversation can accomplish.

                      Comment


                      • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                        What bias?

                        If you read the entire exchange between special1 and myself, including his response to the message you quoted, you'd realize that we actually came to a better mutual understanding of the topic. I enjoyed our exchange and appreciated him taking the time to share his thoughts with me. Funny what a respectful conversation can accomplish.
                        Again, I sent you a PM.

                        Comment


                        • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                          Tanking, rebuilding, building through the draft, blowing it up, whatever you want to call it is semantics; the end result is the Raptors lose a lot of games.

                          If you are dead set against tanking, get out of here! There is nothing for you to say that has not already been said and another debate of the merits or pitfalls of the building strategy is REALLY not needed.

                          I don't think I've seen a thread on this perspective so here goes.


                          A lot of people who are against tanking use the argument or protest against it saying assets such as Lowry, DD, or Gay would be traded for expiring contracts - and that is it. The classic example is Stuckey/CV for Gay that was floated over the summer. Personally, I'm all for blowing it up but not if it means trading assets for nothing. Established NBA talent, picks, and cap space in any combination is a minimum. Valuable assets need to be returned. As bad as Gay's contract may be, it is still over in 2014-15. We're not talking Joe Johnson here.


                          So my question:

                          How bad do you want to see the Raptors tank/rebuild/blow it up/build through draft?
                          Trade Lowry, Gay, DD at all costs for anything that rids them off the roster and books, faster the better!
                          Only trade them if you get assets of value in return. If not, stay the course.


                          *For all the eternal optimists out there, maybe this divides and allows you to conquer the tankers!*
                          Successfully executing a tanking strategy (or trades, or free agent acquisition for that matter) assumes that you can correctly evaluate talent (see: Jordan, Michael) and correctly assess, develop and project asset value. I'd much rather see a thread and some analysis on how/why some franchises/GMs are great at drafting or trading for under-valued talent, while some franchises can be in the lottery for a decade and still be in a losing situation. That would be a worthwhile discussion, IMO.

                          Comment


                          • Masai's Multiple Motives?

                            Xixak wrote: View Post
                            Again, I sent you a PM.
                            The nature of PM's are that this statement isn't necessary. As far as mob mentality - it appears you tend to disrespect many people on this forum whether that is your intention or not.


                            As to the topic - a team is best torn down by keeping/finding as many future pieces as possible and trying to turn them into productive pieces that fit. Many of the more successful tank jobs were done by getting and wisely drafting their core players in the same or back to back drafts (Portland/OKC/Minni/etc). The other tankers were largely teams already with a franchise player who was injured long-term (Heat, Spurs, etc)

                            Three pieces that are currently productive but may not be a part of our long term strategy:

                            Kyle Lowry - lack of depth behind him and his play-making, clutch skills, and expiring contract

                            Rudy Gay - Clutch skills, taking pressure off Demar and JV, and possible expiring contract

                            Landry Fields - Ablity to execute, good defense, play-making, low potential, taking minutes from Ross


                            I have a suspicion that Masai has multiple motives in assembling this team with an opt-out to tank in the first few months -

                            1) Working toward a winning culture by awarding the hard work/players to prove themselves/control their destiny

                            2) Diverting media/team attention from accusing them tankers - "Hey we tried to make the playoffs so this is plan B"

                            3) Increasing/Inflating the value of the above 3 mentioned players who are all coming off some of the worst seasons of their careers (eg. Fields w/ average 3pt% has value vs Fields now)
                            When Tom Chambers dunks an NBA player gets their hops...

                            Comment


                            • golden wrote: View Post
                              Successfully executing a tanking strategy (or trades, or free agent acquisition for that matter) assumes that you can correctly evaluate talent (see: Jordan, Michael) and correctly assess, develop and project asset value. I'd much rather see a thread and some analysis on how/why some franchises/GMs are great at drafting or trading for under-valued talent, while some franchises can be in the lottery for a decade and still be in a losing situation. That would be a worthwhile discussion, IMO.
                              +1

                              Comment


                              • golden wrote: View Post
                                Successfully executing a tanking strategy (or trades, or free agent acquisition for that matter) assumes that you can correctly evaluate talent (see: Jordan, Michael) and correctly assess, develop and project asset value. I'd much rather see a thread and some analysis on how/why some franchises/GMs are great at drafting or trading for under-valued talent, while some franchises can be in the lottery for a decade and still be in a losing situation. That would be a worthwhile discussion, IMO.
                                I agree.... Start that thread any time.

                                I suspect talent evaluation comes down to you either have it or you don't. Kind of like height or any other talent such as sining.

                                Comment

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