There is an elephant in the room and his name is Rudy

[Bendit]

I am not going to change now (maybe after the season has started ). Rudy G's salary, on the currently constituted Raps team whose most optimistic results for the season is a squeak-in into the playoffs, is a cap killer. The team needs changes and we are capped out. Trading him this season I believe does not delay the inevitable changes required. As mentioned in the OP...do we want to experience another Bosh play as well? MU has always said he wants to be in "control". Gay will have the hammer once the trade deadline passes and then reduces MU's options as well as timing flexibility.

[Mess]

But this is important:

If he opts out, any contract he signs with Toronto MUST start at $19.3M


UNLESSSSSSSSS (I just thought about this)


Toronto renounces his bird rights (i.e. they will have to use whatever cap space they have which would be roughly $20M not counting any future trades or first round draft picks) and signs him as an UFA. I think that is how San Antonio managed to have Jefferson opt out and sign a smaller yearly salary for more guaranteed money than his final year of contract. Anyone want to check to see if I have that right?

And then the Spurs traded him to Golden State for Captain Jack. I think that's the best case scenario. MU jedi-mind-tricks Rudy into signing a reasonably priced UFA deal after this year and then trades him. Or you know, he plays a hell of a lot better and is no longer being overpaid - though he still might not fit with the Raps.

But that depends on what other moves are made, so it's way too early to tell.

[octothorp]

If Gay were traded for Lebron, what would that do to the win totals of the Raps and Heat, and what does that say about Gay's value and his contract?

It says more about what a ridiculously good value contract Lebron is on. Not fair to compare any veteran to that contract.

[ceez]

Masai was around when Bosh screwed us over, and didn't wait for Carmelo to do it. He knows what to do.

Trade him.

[Bendit]

have him "taken care of"

There is at least a double entendre in that request. Did you want the Fredo Corleone treatment?

[white men can't jump]

Hmmm....Sound like Dallas might be letting people know they intend to be buyers?

It’s unlikely any team comes calling for Marion or Carter, but a team looking to dump off a big contract or a free agent that may walk away, might look at Marion or Carter, especially if Dallas will toss in one of their young guys or a future draft pick

Might not be a natural partner and may require another team or two to jump in, but I really see Dallas as a team that will come after Rudy. I mean, it becomes so difficult to predict what might become possible when talks go beyond 2 teams.

*Source
http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-mor..._source=feedly

[p00ka]

lol, welcome to Toronto Rudy. As you can see, fans are so excited about the season starting.

[Jclaw]

I said this elsewhere but here goes. What does a tank look like? Get rid of Gay, Lowry and probably DeMar. What does a "go for it" season look like with no one choosing to stay as free agents? Get rid of Gay, Lowry..just not DeMar. What Gay and Lowry decide to do is huge. Masai can't misread these tea leaves.

[JimiCliff]

Hmmm....Sound like Dallas might be letting people know they intend to be buyers?



Might not be a natural partner and may require another team or two to jump in, but I really see Dallas as a team that will come after Rudy. I mean, it becomes so difficult to predict what might become possible when talks go beyond 2 teams.

*Source
http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-am-mor..._source=feedly

Cubes has got to be getting desperate, right?

And imagine a small-ball lineup of Dirk, Rudy, Vince, Monta and Jose! A throwback to the Dirk, Van Horn, Finley, Van Exel and Nash days!

Edit: Although, having to play that lineup might make Carlisle instantly resign.

[mcHAPPY]

So there were two options I left out of the original post. I put them in there but here they are again in case no one goes back to read the second edition of the novel.


IF HE OPTS OUT, RENOUNCE HIS BIRD RIGHTS AND RESIGN HIM

Remember a few years back when the Jefferson declined his option? He eventually resigned with the Spurs for more years and more guaranteed money but a lesser annual amount. To do this with a prearranged agreement is dangerous and would be considered tampering (which led to the Wolves mediocrity for years with KG... Joe Smith anyone?). However this is a very real option. If Rudy opts out, there is enough cap (~$20M minus any first round picks or trades that add money) space that they could renounce him and negotiate a contract that does not start at $19.3M i.e. a more reasonable contract to his production and allows the Raptors to add some more talent in free agency or unbalanced trade.


TRADE HIM AND RESIGN HIM THIS SUMMER

Much like the Spurs/Jefferson example above, Gay opts out and becomes unrestricted with whatever team he was traded to. Raptors could have enough cap space assuming they took back less than $6M for on the books next season leaving approximately $14M to make an offer to Gay.

[themasao]

I'd love to see a trade that keeps the Raptors competitive this season. I think the starting 5 is really strong and can be a solid playoff team (remember, bench strength diminishes in importance once you crack the playoffs). But I obviously recognize the predicament Uriji is faced with in terms of retaining Gay.

Couple thoughts: If Gay has to be traded (which I begrudgingly admit is necessary), what I think would be USELESS is getting expirings for the sake of expirings. I'd rather extend Gay at 20 mil a year for 4 years than trade him away for expiring contracts. Regardless of what people think of Gay as a contract, he is a borderline star player in this league and he is the exact type player that Toronto has trouble attracting in free agency. Cap space is only valuable if you're in a position to do something with it -- Toronto isn't and hasn't been for years.

With that in mind, if we're going to lose Rudy either way, what I'd like to see coming back is some combination of draft picks, young players and/or usable rotation guys. I'm sure by mid december/january there will be a team desperate enough for help to 'rent' Gay in return for a solid package (a là JJ Redick to Milwaukee).

Here are some (what I think are realistic) scenario's, with plausible teams, that would accomplish that:

Toronto - Washington
Rudy Gay and DJ Augustin for Trevor Ariza, Glen Rice JR, Otto Porter JR and a 2014 2nd Rounder.

Toronto - Milwaukee
Rudy Gay, Kyle Lowry, Quincy Acy and 2014 2nd round draft pick for Caron Butler, Luke Ridnour, Ekpe Udoh, Giannis Antetokounmpo and 2014 1st round draft pick.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

*Quick note about the above: Butler Ridnour and Udoh are all expiring contracts. But with the exception of Butler, players that could be reasonably retained at a good price that could help the team's depth down the road. The main pieces of the trade are the 1st rounder and the BIG GREEK, both of which should be quite promising going forward. You basically swap Lowry for Ridnour as a more than competent place-holder until you find your new PG of the future, and you swap Gay for Giannis -- a younger more affordable version of the same thing, with arguably as much upside.

As for Milwaukee, I don't think there's any doubt this makes them better in the short term, and maybe even in the long term if they manage to resign both Lowry and Gay. It'll depend on how bad they want success this year and on how the team is performing, but it's well within the realm of possibility.

Toronto - Charlotte

Rudy Gay for Ben Gordon, one of Bismack Biyombo/Cody Zeller and Portland's 2014 (top 10 protected) 1st rounder (Charlotte owes its pick to Chicago)

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

I looked at pretty much every team and these were the three that seemed most realistic and that wouldn't make me puke. I think all the info is right but feel free to correct non-existent draft picks/salaries etc.

*Also, apologies if some of this has been covered. It's been a while since I started this post...

[mcHAPPY]

Personally, I think the Raptors HAVE to trade him.

They are in a situation where if they do NOT trade him:
1) he can walk for nothing as UFA if he opts out (CB4, again? No.),
2) he can opt in and leave the Raptors with little to no financial flexibility as it will be $19.3M.

However, if they do trade him:
1) they get whatever assets that can be obtained,
2) they have enough cap space to pursue him on a reasonable contract in free agency in 2014 or 2015,
3) this season goes in the crapper because we've seen what a Raptor squad comprised of current pieces can do in the standings but they significantly improve their lottery odds in a very-talented-at-the-top-draft.


The only concerns I can think of are:

1) RUDY will never want to resign, he'll take it personal. Well, yes, he might. However I think players know it is a business. At the end of the day they are going to do what is best for them and teams are going to do the same for themselves. I think back to when Cleveland traded Big Z to Washington, he was released, and resigned back with the Cavs 30 days later. Well you can't do that anymore of course. However the concept is the same: he is being traded to make the team better (in Cleveland it was short term, in Toronto it would be long term).

2) You throw away this year. True. No doubt about it. However if the Raptors end up missing the playoffs it is a wasted season and/or if he leaves as an UFA it is a wasted season. Future seasons are going to look significantly better though if he was traded and the Raptors get a high draft pick that turns in to something special or they are able to use their new found financial flexibility to improve the roster long term.


Long story short: I think you have to trade him.... and possibly look to resign him this year or next.

[mcHAPPY]

I'd love to see a trade that keeps the Raptors competitive this season. I think the starting 5 is really strong and can be a solid playoff team (remember, bench strength diminishes in importance once you crack the playoffs). But I obviously recognize the predicament Uriji is faced with in terms of retaining Gay.

Couple thoughts: If Gay has to be traded (which I begrudgingly admit is necessary), what I think would be USELESS is getting expirings for the sake of expirings. I'd rather extend Gay at 20 mil a year for 4 years than trade him away for expiring contracts. Regardless of what people think of Gay as a contract, he is a borderline star player in this league and he is the exact type player that Toronto has trouble attracting in free agency. Cap space is only valuable if you're in a position to do something with it -- Toronto isn't and hasn't been for years.

With that in mind, if we're going to lose Rudy either way, what I'd like to see coming back is some combination of draft picks, young players and/or usable rotation guys. I'm sure by mid december/january there will be a team desperate enough for help to 'rent' Gay in return for a solid package (a là JJ Redick to Milwaukee).

Here are some (what I think are realistic) scenario's, with plausible teams, that would accomplish that:

Toronto - Washington
Rudy Gay and DJ Augustin for Trevor Ariza, Glen Rice JR, Otto Porter JR and a 2014 2nd Rounder.

Toronto - Milwaukee
Rudy Gay, Kyle Lowry, Quincy Acy and 2014 2nd round draft pick for Caron Butler, Luke Ridnour, Ekpe Udoh, Giannis Antetokounmpo and 2014 1st round draft pick.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

*Quick note about the above: Butler Ridnour and Udoh are all expiring contracts. But with the exception of Butler, players that could be reasonably retained at a good price that could help the team's depth down the road. The main pieces of the trade are the 1st rounder and the BIG GREEK, both of which should be quite promising going forward. You basically swap Lowry for Ridnour as a more than competent place-holder until you find your new PG of the future, and you swap Gay for Giannis -- a younger more affordable version of the same thing, with arguably as much upside.

As for Milwaukee, I don't think there's any doubt this makes them better in the short term, and maybe even in the long term if they manage to resign both Lowry and Gay. It'll depend on how bad they want success this year and on how the team is performing, but it's well within the realm of possibility.

Toronto - Charlotte

Rudy Gay for Ben Gordon, one of Bismack Biyombo/Cody Zeller and Portland's 2014 (top 10 protected) 1st rounder (Charlotte owes its pick to Chicago)

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine

I looked at pretty much every team and these were the three that seemed most realistic and that wouldn't make me puke. I think all the info is right but feel free to correct non-existent draft picks/salaries etc.

*Also, apologies if some of this has been covered. It's been a while since I started this post...

Cap space can be used for more than free agency. It is also extremely useful in trades - to either facilitate an uneven financial trade or to take on contracts from teams with ulterior motives (free agency or luxury tax concerns) for assets (picks or prospects).

As for the trade itself, I would love to send Gay to Charlotte for Gordon, POR and DET picks. If they are looking to unload Biyombo, I'd take him too. Charlotte is all about winning as many games possible due to how awful they have been the last few years and the hoopla surrounding their "new" (old) name change. Yes, they are giving up picks but they already have a very young core from the few drafts. Anyways, that is what I'd love to see.

[themasao]

Personally, I think the Raptors HAVE to trade him...

The only concerns I can think of are:...

2) You throw away this year. True. No doubt about it. However if the Raptors end up missing the playoffs it is a wasted season and/or if he leaves as an UFA it is a wasted season. Future seasons are going to look significantly better though if he was traded and the Raptors get a high draft pick that turns in to something special or they are able to use their new found financial flexibility to improve the roster long term.

Not sure why this has to be the case. I think if you get a serviceable wing as one of the pieces coming back, then all is not lost for this season. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but both the Washington and especially the Milwaukee trades mentioned above would not throw this season down the drain.

That's why I see the most important aspect of any trade for Gay as getting a mid 1st to lottery pick in return. That way you don't HAVE to tank to still get in on this stacked draft.

If you can pull a solid current prospect in the process, even better. Either way, don't see why trading Gay automatically means tanking.

[themasao]

Cap space can be used for more than free agency. It is also extremely useful in trades - to either facilitate an uneven financial trade or to take on contracts from teams with ulterior motives (free agency or luxury tax concerns) for assets (picks or prospects).

As for the trade itself, I would love to send Gay to Charlotte for Gordon, POR and DET picks. If they are looking to unload Biyombo, I'd take him too. Charlotte is all about winning as many games possible due to how awful they have been the last few years and the hoopla surrounding their "new" (old) name change. Yes, they are giving up picks but they already have a very young core from the few drafts. Anyways, that is what I'd love to see.

Agreed on the trade. I'm anticipating the POR pick to land in the 11 - 16 range anyways which would be perfect.

As for cap space. I guess I shouldn't say it's useless other than in free agency. It's more so that practically speaking, for us as a team, it has proven to be useless. Colangelo spent many a press-conference emphasizing the value of trade exceptions and flexibility -- it always just struck me as wishful thinking. More often than not, cap space turns into overpayed middling players and trade exceptions expire. Especially for none marquee teams like the Raptors.