Horrifying Odds

[psrs1]

These playoff odds take into account the division the Raptors are in. They are projecting that the Raptors will win the division, and hence gave them close to a 90% chance of getting into the playoffs.

I am concerned.. and the reason why is that I personally do think that teams like Orlando/Milwaukee/Atlanta (with Brooklyn's pick), Boston, Chicago (with Rose back) could all have better records next year while the Raptors basically stay where they are. The flexibility they got from the Gay trade isn't going to be too helpful for free agency since there are no real difference makers.. and so that leaves trades to get better and/or organic growth. The draft could reveal a gem but it would be counting on a improbability. MU has done well in the past with low picks but it may be difficult to reproduce each time.

The trade front is difficult because no team likes to be fleeced. If MU wants to maintain the 4th seed going forward they would have to ensure that they win each trade without breaking up a core. That might be difficult to accomplish or hope the 16-18 pick turns into a gem. I also don't think playoff experience really matters.

I personally would have preferred a step back this season because of where they are as a team, give MU more choices when drafting, and then using trades next season to figure out what the core is. At that point there should be no pressure to try to get the 4th seed or better but to just try and make the playoffs.

I don't know what will happen... If they make the playoffs I will be cheering as loud as anyone would in hoping they get to the next round. I just hope they don't end up as the 9th seed in East as that will be extremely disappointing.

Unless 'magically' they win the lottery.

[jrdyck]

Title should have been "Horrifying Odds (for the Tank Advocate)". Personally, I'm OK with either "good" scenario... winning the division and getting the 3/4 seed or finishing bottom 6/7. I just wanted to rouse the tank-or-bust folks out there.

[stretch]