What the Raptors are missing? (Points Per Shot)

[Masai Ujiri]

One of Sactown's problems appears to be that they're giving a lot of playing time to a lottery pick named McLemore, who stinks like a deceased skunk. Maybe they should quit handing out playing time based on politics and start handing out playing time based on merit.

Lol... people would be crucifying Casey if we had McLemore instead of Ross and Casey decided to play Salmons over him, just saying. Same shit that people were complaining about last year when Anderson was playing over Ross (despite Anderson clearly being a better and more consistent player last season).

@Nosike: What is the definition of "context", in this context? It sounds like "I'm going to spin this to support my position, because it doesn't do so without spin", but correct me if I'm wrong.

Context means looking at a player's role within the offense when evaluating how efficient they are, and then using that to determine a player's talent level. It means not looking at Danny Green's TS% of 56 and DeRozan's TS% of 51 and then deciding that Danny Green is the better offensive player (which is exactly what Matt did last season) without considering the fact that Danny Green is the 4th or 5th option on offense, only takes 6 wide-open, uncontested shots a game, can not create offense and is a role player.

[octothorp]

Newsflash, this is how games are won in the playoffs down the stretch. In the mid-range.

High efficiency basketball is great, but it's also what teams try to stop first. If you don't have players who can consistently get theirs with the in between game in the playoffs, you're not going to go far. It's a big part of the reason why Miami was able to beat Indiana, because the big 3 were able to make those plays down the stretch, and well Paul George wasn't.

Mid-range is a necessary evil when it comes to winning championships.

That being said, DD takes about 3-5 long 2s every game that he wouldn't feel the need to, nor have to take if the Raptors had a legitimate #1 option and he was the secondary guy.

If you've got elite mid-range players, like Miami does, then absolutely. But because it works for them doesn't mean it's going to work for every team. San Antonio, for example, for example, continued to play a very paint-and-threes offense throughout the playoffs, and particularly in the fourth quarter. Check out the shot charts from games 5, 6, and 7 of last year's finals and click on fourth quarter:
http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400467337
http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400467338
http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400467339

In game 7, Miami was connecting from mid-range and leaned on that down the stretch (again, they've got some of the best players in the league at midrange), but for the most part, those games were all paint-and-threes. In game 5, the longest 2 that was attempted in the fourth quarter by either team was a 16 footer by Wade. Beautiful basketball!

Last year during the regular season, San Antonio had just 26% of their regular season attempts as 2s outside the paint (and less than 30% from this range every season for the last 4 years), and it rose to 30% in the playoffs (which you would expect, playing better defenses). But even 30% from this range is far better than Toronto, which since Gay left has shot 37% of their shots from that range. That's the sort of shot distribution I'd like to see Toronto move toward.

[Masai Ujiri]

If you've got elite mid-range players, like Miami does, then absolutely. But because it works for them doesn't mean it's going to work for every team. San Antonio, for example, for example, continued to play a very paint-and-threes offense throughout the playoffs, and particularly in the fourth quarter. Check out the shot charts from games 5, 6, and 7 of last year's finals and click on fourth quarter:
http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400467337
http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400467338
http://espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=400467339

In game 7, Miami was connecting from mid-range and leaned on that down the stretch (again, they've got some of the best players in the league at midrange), but for the most part, those games were all paint-and-threes. In game 5, the longest 2 that was attempted in the fourth quarter by either team was a 16 footer by Wade. Beautiful basketball!

Last year during the regular season, San Antonio had just 26% of their regular season attempts as 2s outside the paint (and less than 30% from this range every season for the last 4 years), and it rose to 30% in the playoffs (which you would expect, playing better defenses). But even 30% from this range is far better than Toronto, which since Gay left has shot 37% of their shots from that range. That's the sort of shot distribution I'd like to see Toronto move toward.

So how exactly was my point refuted here....

[p00ka]

thats because sacramento have absolutely NO defense. they are literally near the bottom on every single defense stat you can think of. they have good scorers. cousins is obviously a monster in scoring. but they don't defend whatsoever. if you watched the last sacramento vs bobcats game, you could see that bobcats were literally scoring at will.

the intangibles can't be ignored, but to dismiss measurable tangibles that could help with a team and/or individual players game is stupid.

I posted a much longer comment that you may want to clue into, before calling me stupid, but I don't come close to "dismissing measurable tangibles". I dismiss how they're being used, and how they're being interpreted. And icing on the cake, is that at the end of it all, the entire "analysis" does nothing but put a new dress on the same old, same old, that has been hammered to death here:
- The Raptors could sure use an elite scorer if they're going to contend. Really?
- Where are we going to get this player?,,,,,,, wink, wink,,, high draft pick..... subliminal hint: how do we get that,,, wink wink.

Same stuff that permeates dozens of threads here, just in a different dress,,,, but I ask you this: what statistical "analysis" tells you, or Matt, that we don't already have one or more of those? Any real stats tell you DD won't become one? He's only 24 and ever improving. What about JV? What about Ross? Any stats say we absolutely do not have the player Matt seeks already in the fold? You know, something "tangible" that says neither of these guys will fill that individual stat "need" over the next couple of years.

In the meantime, TEAM stats (you know what actually matters in a team game) put the Raps at the very top of the league since the trade, at both ends of the court, including the most important of all, Wins. But yeah, focus in on that individual PPS stat for the season, because the answer to the team needs is right there, sheeeesh.

[Masai Ujiri]

So you're using usage rate, because that's exactly what that stat attempts to track..

I didn't say anything about usage rate. But sure that's one way to measure a player's role in an offence.

[NoPropsneeded]

Newsflash, this is how games are won in the playoffs down the stretch. In the mid-range.

High efficiency basketball is great, but it's also what teams try to stop first. If you don't have players who can consistently get theirs with the in between game in the playoffs, you're not going to go far. It's a big part of the reason why Miami was able to beat Indiana, because the big 3 were able to make those plays down the stretch, and well Paul George wasn't.

Mid-range is a necessary evil when it comes to winning championships.

That being said, DD takes about 3-5 long 2s every game that he wouldn't feel the need to, nor have to take if the Raptors had a legitimate #1 option and he was the secondary guy.

Micheal Jordan prime example of that. His bread and butter was attacking the rim and hitting mid range jumpers. This is why he and the bulls were so successful in the playoffs.

[Puffer]

Micheal Jordan prime example of that. His bread and butter was attacking the rim and hitting mid range jumpers. This is why he and the bulls were so successful in the playoffs.

The key is "hitting" mid range jumpers, not taking them. The problem with mid range jumpers occurs when you aren't very efficient at getting them through the hoop. That has been a problem with the Raps in the past, when Rudy and DeMar were laughing stocks for the number of shots they took and the smallish number they made. It will continue to be a limiting factor in the future if players continue to take a lot of those shots, at low efficiency rates.

This isn't about stats or hating or anything else. If you take a lot of shots that are difficult to sink, without the added benefit of being worth 3 points, you will miss a lot if you are not very efficient and the other team will get a lot of rebounds and shove your poor efficiency up your A**.

[Masai Ujiri]

The key is "hitting" mid range jumpers, not taking them. The problem with mid range jumpers occurs when you aren't very efficient at getting them through the hoop. That has been a problem with the Raps in the past, when Rudy and DeMar were laughing stocks for the number of shots they took and the smallish number they made. It will continue to be a limiting factor in the future if players continue to take a lot of those shots, at low efficiency rates.

This isn't about stats or hating or anything else. If you take a lot of shots that are difficult to sink, without the added benefit of being worth 3 points, you will miss a lot if you are not very efficient and the other team will get a lot of rebounds and shove your poor efficiency up your A**.

100% agree. This is why I've been saying that we need to bring in a true #1 option so DeRozan doesn't have to take the 3-4 HIGH DIFFICULTY mid-range shots that he takes a game, because the superstar is going to take those, or use their superior skillset to get a better shot.

That drops DeRozan's attempts down to 14-15 a game while still scoring 20ppg, which is efficient basketball.

[Mr.Z]

DeRozan at 6th man could work IF you had a small forward who is a true #1 scorer, which we don't.

So for now that idea is crap.

Yeah no shit, thats why they aren't doing that.
Matt never said they should do that.
He said they should do it if they can get an elite #1 scoring option.
Which they don't have.
Which is why it's not an idea right now.
Don't play idiot like you didn't know that's what he meant just so you could call his idea crap because you're a DD homer and he is not.

[NoPropsneeded]

The key is "hitting" mid range jumpers, not taking them. The problem with mid range jumpers occurs when you aren't very efficient at getting them through the hoop. That has been a problem with the Raps in the past, when Rudy and DeMar were laughing stocks for the number of shots they took and the smallish number they made. It will continue to be a limiting factor in the future if players continue to take a lot of those shots, at low efficiency rates.

This isn't about stats or hating or anything else. If you take a lot of shots that are difficult to sink, without the added benefit of being worth 3 points, you will miss a lot if you are not very efficient and the other team will get a lot of rebounds and shove your poor efficiency up your A**.

Yes i know. I was just pointing out that Mid range shots are a big part of the game. DeRozan isn't great at hitting them but he has improved a lot since he came into the league. We're starting to see him hit them more often than not and he's made a ton of contested ones too.
But like was Nosike said, he isn't a number 1 option which is the main reason for him being so inefficient from that area of the floor.

[planetmars]

Getting another offensive minded player is smart especially for depth (the Raptors have been very lucky with injuries this season - knock on wood).. but the bigger key is you don't want to sacrifice defense/rebounding/character/etc.

I still think they should pursue Thaddeous Young. He wants to be traded, Philly wants to tank. I'm sure a trade such as Salmons and a future pick (the extra pick from 2016 maybe) for Young would work (Philly may want more, but getting an expiring and a pick is not bad). The problem is that we would be committing $19M for 2 years with a trade like that as Salmons can be waived for $1M next season. They lose flexibility but gain a pretty good player. Not a stud but a guy that can help you win.

I wouldn't recommend someone like him if the goal is to really tank and rebuild via draft... and again the health of Lowry really will matter here, but I would take the gamble.

Young is only 25 and could be part of the core going forward too.

[mcHAPPY]

Yeah no shit, thats why they aren't doing that.
Matt never said they should do that.
He said they should do it if they can get an elite #1 scoring option.
Which they don't have.
Which is why it's not an idea right now.
Don't play idiot like you didn't know that's what he meant just so you could call his idea crap because you're a DD homer and he is not.

Thanks. Nice to know there are a few who actually read what I post with an open mind.

We all have our biases though. It comes with having an opinion.

[p00ka]

Thanks. Nice to know there are a few who actually read what I post with an open mind.

We all have our biases though. It comes with having an opinion.

Oh for shite sake. He`s ignoring me, but somebody please tell him to quite being this hard-done-by whiney little b.... sniffle, sniffle

[p00ka]

Post after post from Nosike and others just inventing new, creative ways to apologize for Derozan. Derozan apologetics reaching new, dizzying heights of absurdity. Submit your applications for a phd in Derozan apologetics.

Disagree, but how about debating the actual points, instead of some snotty and pompous jab.

Thing is, whatever you`re calling ``àpologies``, none of it would be taking place if it wasn``t for the new creative way to diminish DeMar, as in this thread being created. Its bloody pathetic for people to be pounding away for months about DeMar being a good scorer, but offers nothing else. Now that he`s proving that to be bunk, and the team is doing fantastic, now it`s his PSS (for the season) that`s being highlighted.

It`s bloody sickness. The team is doing exceptionally well, he`s a very big part of it,,,,,,, but, but,, but,,,, but we need a high PSS guy. Insanity.

[mcHAPPY]

Micheal Jordan prime example of that. His bread and butter was attacking the rim and hitting mid range jumpers. This is why he and the bulls were so successful in the playoffs.

Jordan shot 55% in the prime of his career on 2FGs. DeRozan is shooting 46% the last 3 years.

As Puffer said, hitting them is much more important than taking them.