Looks like Lowry is a priority

[avocado]

How do you accumulate assets when you are capped out and drafting near the bottom of or outside the lottery? Yes, you could rely on internal development but that is limiting your options. Nobody knows what JV or Ross may become, or whether they are already close to reaching their potential. Every team has young guys they hope will develop into superstars. The key is to play the odds and give yourself the most chances to win.

I don't see how trading Lowry qualifies as "accumulating assets". Lowry is an asset. Trading him simply means trading one asset for another. His trade value is low because his contract is about to expire so you're not likely to get much back anyway.

If you think (as you seem to) that he's only trying because it's a contract year for him, then sure trading him makes sense. If you think (as I do) that he just might continue playing at a high level for several years, then trading him when his value is low doesn't make sense.

Resigning Lowry means that we're relying on internal development either. There are always trades we can make, it's not like the only decision to make in managing this team going forward is to trade Lowry or not to trade Lowry.

[RapthoseLeafs]

I agree to a point

It's a bad gamble in my opinion- little upside, huge downside. Best case scenario, he continues playing at his current level and the raptors top out at a middle of the pack east playoff team, no chance to compete with ind/mia, and little means of the improvement. Worst case, and the much more likely one since Lowry has no track record of sustained success in 9 years as a pro, is that he regresses back to his mean performance, and we're stuck with an aging, untradeable 10 mil/year player who kills our cap flexibility and makes us just good enough to avoid getting any good picks in the draft.

Upside
Raptors make it to the 2nd Round - get some play-off experience, plus get the attention of future free agents. Lowry signs for 3 year term, and things keep rolling.

Downside
Raptors lose in the 1st round - leaving team out of lottery. Lowry leaves (with no return).

Lowry will not be able to maximize his value with a contender. Name me a contender who has the cap space to sign him and doesn't already have a better option at PG. On the other hand, rebuilding teams don't want him, because they're rebuilding and would rather develop young guys. The league is pretty deep in PGs. To be honest, its hard to find any team that would be willing to give him 3yr/30mil. NY, DET or LA maybe? If I was Toronto, I'd play hardball and see if he could get anyone to give him something better than 2yr/16mil.

One thing I have learned, is this thing about guarantees and absolutes.

• LA had no guarantee about Howard, but they still made the move.
• Masa traded Rudy Gay .... although he is averaging a .536 efg on 20.5 pts, 5.2 rbs and 2.6 ast [Go figure]
• Masa pulled a 1st pick (and 2 Seconds) for Bargnani .... who's playing average, but starting for a team on the rise.
• Boston got untold riches for some old guys. (and re-initiated the ideal plan - ****ing. uggh)
• Phoenix has risen, and are loaded with draft picks.
• Jeremy Lin got 8+ million for 3 years.
• I could go on ...

In the NBA, never say never.

.

[octothorp]

How do you accumulate assets when you are capped out and drafting near the bottom of or outside the lottery? Yes, you could rely on internal development but that is limiting your options. Nobody knows what JV or Ross may become, or whether they are already close to reaching their potential. Every team has young guys they hope will develop into superstars. The key is to play the odds and give yourself the most chances to win.

Agreed on the bolded point. So which is better odds:
A) that Lowry continues to play near the level that he's shown this year, or;
B) that the Raptors are able to acquire one of those guys that you listed, and that the guy they acquire ends up playing at a higher level than what Lowry's currently playing at, and that when his contract is up the Raptors are able to retain him for less money than what they'd pay Lowry?

I'd say A. Some people probably think B. My reasons for thinking A is based around the fact that I don't believe Lowry's current success can be linked to contract year performance; he's playing with the same effort level he's shown throughout his career, he's just become a lot smarter in the way that he uses that effort. It's not uncommon for PGs to get smarter as they mature, nor is it uncommon for them to make more of a commitment to fitness levels.
And of the guys you listed, the only one who's upside I'm really excited about is Schroeder, but I don't believe he'll be available any time soon.

I also don't think paying 10 million for Lowry would put them in cap hell. Even if somehow both Lowry and Amir end up with $10 million contracts, they'd have a core of DeRozan, Ross, Lowry, JV, and Amir (plus Novak if we can't ditch him, and two first round picks) for about $45 million in 2015/16, which is more than enough room to add another big contract, and then from that point use exceptions and cheap players and rookie contracts (including two draft picks in 2016) to fill in the roster.

[Bendit]

I think Lowry will get around $9 million per year. $6M to $8M for 2Pat sounds way too high. I expect something more around what Hansbrough got, maybe a little more.

2Pat is a rfa after this season. He is making 3.11 mill this year (on his rookie contract). I know he is playing well and I like him v. much but that is an outrageous increase to the suggested 8-9 mill per. I think hed be fairly valued in the 5-6 mill range...a solid increase and a team he knows he has a role with and hopefully likes. He is already making what TH is but you have to agree that he shows a much higher ceiling and class than TH. I suppose the market will determine and MU shall have to make a choice on whether to match or not depending on his plans.

[Primer]

2Pat is a rfa after this season. He is making 3.11 mill this year (on his rookie contract). I know he is playing well and I like him v. much but that is an outrageous increase to the suggested 8-9 mill per. I think hed be fairly valued in the 5-6 mill range...a solid increase and a team he knows he has a role with and hopefully likes. He is already making what TH is but you have to agree that he shows a much higher ceiling and class than TH. I suppose the market will determine and MU shall have to make a choice on whether to match or not depending on his plans.

2Pat is a bench big and will be paid accordingly. That's why I thought it was wacky when someone suggested he'll be getting $6-$8 million. Nobody pays that for a bench big. I'd guess he'll get $4-$5M per year from the Raptors. Teams will know that in order to get the Raptors to not match they'll have to offer way too much and as such won't really make offers to 2Pat. It's what happened to Teague in Atlanta. Milwaukee eventually offered Teague a reasonable deal and ATL quickly matched. Look for the Raptors to do the same.

[DanH]

My prediction is 44/5 for Lowry and 25/5 for Patterson.

[white men can't jump]

My prediction is 44/5 for Lowry and 25/5 for Patterson.

I could live with that number for Lowry. And I'd still hope they manage to get a young PG in place as soon as possible, likely in one of the next couple of drafts.

I'd be pretty surprised if they offered Patterson a 5-year deal though. Give him his qualifying offer which is about 4.3 million, hope that no one offers him anything better, and do something like a 2 year + 3rd year player option if you can.

[rocwell]

Raptors Should Be The Frontrunner for Kyle Lowry in Free Agency (via @timpchisholm) http://t.co/lXD3WWlezN

— NBA Rumors (@NBARUMORS) January 13, 2014

[chch166]

Career wise? Nope.

Over the last five weeks? Gotta at least think about it...

Yeah that he's been definetitly playing like a all-star over the past 5 weeks. 18.3 Ppg/ 8.1 APG / 4.4 Rpg in December and 15.8 PPG/ 8.2 APG/ 4.5 RPG in Jan definitely look like all-star numbers

[Jclaw]

Raptors Should Be The Frontrunner for Kyle Lowry in Free Agency (via @timpchisholm) http://t.co/lXD3WWlezN

— NBA Rumors (@NBARUMORS) January 13, 2014

Good article (as usual). I thought I had my Toronto blinders on when I thought there might be some appeal to staying here. Then again, if LA says "come play on the beach"....that might be tough

[white men can't jump]

Good article (as usual). I thought I had my Toronto blinders on when I thought there might be some appeal to staying here. Then again, if LA says "come play on the beach"....that might be tough

The thing with LA is that they have much more uncertainty. They have Kobe, and really nothing else, and Kobe will be old and coming off a string of injuries. They also want to have enough space to offer Kevin Love (or whoever, but lets assume Love) a max deal when he is a free agent, which means they can't throw the bank at Lowry without risking compromising their other future free agent plans. But yeah, I still see them as the main threat for his services.

Still though, a lot can change in the NBA pretty quickly. The main part of the article I agree with is that roughly 3/4+ (very likely 25ish teams) of the league won't have the playing time/opportunity or money to really pursue him.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Raptors Should Be The Frontrunner for Kyle Lowry in Free Agency (via @timpchisholm) http://t.co/lXD3WWlezN

— NBA Rumors (@NBARUMORS) January 13, 2014

That was a pretty good summary by Chisholm, but I think he missed 2 (at least) possibilities in his analysis.

First, if Boston were to trade Rondo, they'd immediately become a potential landing spot for Lowry in free agency. Of all the teams eliminated due to having an established starter, they're the one team whose situation could very well change between now and next season.

Second, the idea of a S&T was never raised. Given NY's rumored interest this season, I could see them possibly revisiting such a deal as a S&T. Other teams that may not have the cap space required to sign Lowry outright, could look to go the S&T route. It's probably a fairly low likelihood, but needs to be included in any discussion that wants to explore every possible option.

I really do think Toronto is the front-runner to re-sign Lowry if he isn't traded this season. I just really hope the Raptors don't overpay him (but to not trade him and then not re-sign him would be horrible asset management). My biggest concern is still the fact that he's doing all this in a contract year when he's finally healthy. If the Raps could get him for $8M per season (or less), that would be pretty fair and would only be a $1.8M increase from his current salary.

[planetmars]

I could live with that number for Lowry. And I'd still hope they manage to get a young PG in place as soon as possible, likely in one of the next couple of drafts.

I'd be pretty surprised if they offered Patterson a 5-year deal though. Give him his qualifying offer which is about 4.3 million, hope that no one offers him anything better, and do something like a 2 year + 3rd year player option if you can.

I'd only give Lowry a 5th year if its a team option or with a very small guarantee. He's injury prone and it's only going to get tougher the older he gets. Patterson should get no more than 4 years either, I agree.

[Primer]

That was a pretty good summary by Chisholm, but I think he missed 2 (at least) possibilities in his analysis.

First, if Boston were to trade Rondo, they'd immediately become a potential landing spot for Lowry in free agency. Of all the teams eliminated due to having an established starter, they're the one team whose situation could very well change between now and next season.

Second, the idea of a S&T was never raised. Given NY's rumored interest this season, I could see them possibly revisiting such a deal as a S&T. Other teams that may not have the cap space required to sign Lowry outright, could look to go the S&T route. It's probably a fairly low likelihood, but needs to be included in any discussion that wants to explore every possible option.

I really do think Toronto is the front-runner to re-sign Lowry if he isn't traded this season. I just really hope the Raptors don't overpay him (but to not trade him and then not re-sign him would be horrible asset management). My biggest concern is still the fact that he's doing all this in a contract year when he's finally healthy. If the Raps could get him for $8M per season (or less), that would be pretty fair and would only be a $1.8M increase from his current salary.

Under the new CBA you can only do a sign and trade with a team under the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade. NYK aren't even close to being under the apron.

Also, Toronto has to play ball in any sign and trade scenario, so we'd be able to demand back whatever assets we want or call off the trade.

[Primer]

The thing with LA is that they have much more uncertainty. They have Kobe, and really nothing else, and Kobe will be old and coming off a string of injuries. They also want to have enough space to offer Kevin Love (or whoever, but lets assume Love) a max deal when he is a free agent, which means they can't throw the bank at Lowry without risking compromising their other future free agent plans. But yeah, I still see them as the main threat for his services.

Still though, a lot can change in the NBA pretty quickly. The main part of the article I agree with is that roughly 3/4+ (very likely 25ish teams) of the league won't have the playing time/opportunity or money to really pursue him.

They still have to pay Nash $9.7M next year so I'm not sure they'll be hot in the market for a PG. Nash said he has no intention of retiring before his contract is up so that's not an option for LA. Could they afford to have $20M tied up in the PG position when they're already paying Kobe $23.5M?