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  • #31
    And then there's guys like Cousins, Lopez, Henson, Drummond, Anthony Davis, and Noah too (in addition to Hibbert, Howard, M. Gasol, Horford, Hibbert, Chandler, etc.).....not to mention Embiid in a few years.

    Even top-3 seems like a long shot for Jonas.

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    • #32
      If I recall correctly, the 2011 draft class was supposed to produce exactly 1 superstar in Kyrie Irving, and everyone else would be serviceable players but no standouts. If anything I'd say this class has already exceeded expectations with guys like Klay Thompson, Kahwi Leonard, Chandler Parsons, Kemba Walker and Tobias Harris. There's even some strong rotational guys like our JV, Kenneth Faried, Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight and Jimmy Butler.

      That's not to say that JV can't get better, but I never, ever expected Valanciunas to become a top 5 center or near-all-star caliber. Anyone who believed that bought too much into the hype of that U-19 tournament and other non-NBA accolades.
      Last edited by ebrian; Thu Jan 23, 2014, 03:14 PM.
      your pal,
      ebrian

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      • #33
        Nilanka wrote: View Post
        And then there's guys like Cousins, Lopez, Henson, Drummond, Anthony Davis, and Noah too (in addition to Hibbert, Howard, M. Gasol, Horford, Hibbert, Chandler, etc.).....not to mention Embiid in a few years.

        Even top-3 seems like a long shot for Jonas.
        I don't know about long shot. With that logic it's a long shot for all these guys because it's totally unclear how things shake out. I mean, what's the top 3 right now? Howard....then you can make different arguments for a handful of guys.

        The point is Jonas has the tools physically and mentally to have a legit shot. It's up to him AND the organization to do all they can to help get him to that point. I think top 10 is probably a given, and top 5 is doable enough. I don't know if he's ever going to be considered the best C in the game, because that implies being able to dominate (not just play well) at both ends of the court. And frankly, Howard is the only guy in that convo now, and as he declines, someone will have to step up to take that mantle, or you might just have a bunch of different guys, none of whom are truly able to have that elite level of dominance on both ends.

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        • #34
          white men can't jump wrote: View Post
          With that logic it's a long shot for all these guys because it's totally unclear how things shake out.
          This is basically what I was getting at. That there's no way we can conclude that Jonas will be a top-3 centre (let alone the best) considering there are a handful of other young guys who could just as easily step up their respective games, in addition to the guys who are already ahead of Jonas.

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          • #35
            I don't know about the talk of big men being slow to develop. There are certainly some examples of such, but there are also guys who were immediately good, and those are the ones that headline the category of "top centers" of the league.

            The one plus side of Jonas' slow development is that we don't have to worry about him demanding the max he can get when it's time to give him his second contract. Sorry bud, you're not that good yet, so here's the minimum we can pay you...
            your pal,
            ebrian

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            • #36
              I'm attributing JV's slump to little bit of being sick, a little bit of lost confidence, and a little bit of expectation.

              The second and third may seem contradictory, but I think JV was expecting himself to be able to play well, but on court he would hesitate and second guess himself. On the boards and on defense, he was putting so much pressure on himself that he wasn't making the smart decisions.

              All in all, I hope this is just a little slump.
              "Bruno?
              Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
              He's terrible."

              -Superjudge, 7/23

              Hope you're wrong.

              Comment


              • #37
                stooley wrote: View Post
                I'm attributing JV's slump to little bit of being sick, a little bit of lost confidence, and a little bit of expectation.

                The second and third may seem contradictory, but I think JV was expecting himself to be able to play well, but on court he would hesitate and second guess himself. On the boards and on defense, he was putting so much pressure on himself that he wasn't making the smart decisions.

                All in all, I hope this is just a little slump.
                My confidence would be shaken too if the team itself had put expectations on me that I'd be a bigger part of the team this year, and I'm really not. They're barely playing/using him more than last year (4 more minutes and 2 more shots, actually *only 1.5 FGAs more per 36 so a negligibly higher FGA rate), and he clearly spent all summer working on the things they asked him to (gaining mass, post moves). They barely even run his and Amir's go-to play, which is the p'n'r. I literally jump out of my seat every time we use it successfully now, because it's so rare it's like striking gold. Now I'm not saying they need to make him a top option. He's still raw and will make mistakes, and doesn't need to be forcefed more touches than he can handle....

                But am I the only one who finds it insanely frustrating that he's the only starter who's FGAs have stayed the same (technically very slightly gone down) since the Rudy Gay trade? We've just subbed one perimeter heavy player for spreading it around a bit. Even Amir gets a bit more shots (likely jumpers). Casey just does not know how to utilize bigs, or even just generally run a system that tries to exploit the lane. I would be frustrated and shaken if I were Jonas. He gets pulled every time he has a bad stretch, and glued to the bench. It seems like his development is a complete afterthought.

                As someone else pointed out, he is being asked to do all the little things (that take time to learn) and not being rewarded at all, while also being severely punished every time he does struggle. There's tough love and then there's just bad development. It's been beaten to death, but it's the typical Casey approach. He did it with Ed, and he does it with Ross....but his vets or his "guys" get to make tons of mistakes with little-to-no accountability. That's why Jonas is putting so much pressure on himself. He's in an environment where he knows he gets no chance to work through mistakes, so he's constantly on edge and worried that he will make mistakes...which in turn leads to more hesitancy and mistakes....

                I mean, it's no coincidence that Ross improved greatly when given an opportunity to play more, to shoot more, and because Casey has few options on the bench, to by default work through mistakes at times. He feels involved, he doesn't feel constant pressure to play perfect ball, and he knows one bad stint won't have him glued to the bench. Just like Ed probably felt when injuries finally forced Casey to start him/play him more, and he found a decent niche and solid ways to contribute.

                If this team is going to continue to add young pieces, I can't see a reason Casey should be kept.
                Last edited by white men can't jump; Thu Jan 23, 2014, 05:00 PM.

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                • #38
                  Nilanka wrote: View Post
                  Has Jonas ever done this?

                  Araujo misses the dunk sure, but what the hell is the Charlotte player doing? He grabs the rebound and just dumps the ball...wtf like it's a hockey penalty kill
                  9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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                  • #39
                    JV can be a good player, but I simply cannot see any way he becomes a "star". He doesn't have any moves, or sense it seems. He tries hard, and thats what i like.

                    But lets face it, he gets abused by quite a few other centers.... perhaps its his youth.... but he just doesnt "look" like a baller to me, a "player".

                    I dunno...... I don't want to write him off yet, but sometimes I just dont see it.

                    That said, he will be good enough to play on a team competing for the trophy, so thats good enough for me, just dont expect to see him leading the charge

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                    • #40
                      ebrian wrote: View Post
                      I don't know about the talk of big men being slow to develop. There are certainly some examples of such, but there are also guys who were immediately good, and those are the ones that headline the category of "top centers" of the league.

                      The one plus side of Jonas' slow development is that we don't have to worry about him demanding the max he can get when it's time to give him his second contract. Sorry bud, you're not that good yet, so here's the minimum we can pay you...
                      What are you talking about? Pretty much every center in the league right now was slow to develop.
                      9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                        My confidence would be shaken too if the team itself had put expectations on me that I'd be a bigger part of the team this year, and I'm really not. They're barely playing/using him more than last year (4 more minutes and 2 more shots, actually *only 1.5 FGAs more per 36 so a negligibly higher FGA rate), and he clearly spent all summer working on the things they asked him to (gaining mass, post moves). They barely even run his and Amir's go-to play, which is the p'n'r. I literally jump out of my seat every time we use it successfully now, because it's so rare it's like striking gold. Now I'm not saying they need to make him a top option. He's still raw and will make mistakes, and doesn't need to be forcefed more touches than he can handle....

                        But am I the only one who finds it insanely frustrating that he's the only starter who's FGAs have stayed the same (technically very slightly gone down) since the Rudy Gay trade? We've just subbed one perimeter heavy player for spreading it around a bit. Even Amir gets a bit more shots (likely jumpers). Casey just does not know how to utilize bigs, or even just generally run a system that tries to exploit the lane. I would be frustrated and shaken if I were Jonas. He gets pulled every time he has a bad stretch, and glued to the bench. It seems like his development is a complete afterthought.

                        As someone else pointed out, he is being asked to do all the little things (that take time to learn) and not being rewarded at all, while also being severely punished every time he does struggle. There's tough love and then there's just bad development. It's been beaten to death, but it's the typical Casey approach. He did it with Ed, and he does it with Ross....but his vets or his "guys" get to make tons of mistakes with little-to-no accountability. That's why Jonas is putting so much pressure on himself. He's in an environment where he knows he gets no chance to work through mistakes, so he's constantly on edge and worried that he will make mistakes...which in turn leads to more hesitancy and mistakes....

                        I mean, it's no coincidence that Ross improved greatly when given an opportunity to play more, to shoot more, and because Casey has few options on the bench, to by default work through mistakes at times. He feels involved, he doesn't feel constant pressure to play perfect ball, and he knows one bad stint won't have him glued to the bench. Just like Ed probably felt when injuries finally forced Casey to start him/play him more, and he found a decent niche and solid ways to contribute.

                        If this team is going to continue to add young pieces, I can't see a reason Casey should be kept.
                        I agree with some things, and disagree with others.

                        Generally, I'm not sure Casey's usage is a negative. I want Jonas to be accountable, I don't want him to think he's the face of the franchise and lose the need to work his ass off. On this topic, JV also doesn't seem like he's got the best cardio conditioning right now. He looks gassed after long stretches of play to me. This probably has something to do with the extra mass.

                        You mentioned Jonas' post moves and his pick and roll. When he's hot, I agree, those things are working, but when he's not, they're just ugly. His go to post move is an out of control sprint into the paint followed by a top speed flying hook. It's a deadly moved if used well, but Jonas just looks a little out of control when he tries it. I also feel like JV's performance in the pick and roll is inconsistent. This could very well be caused by how little it's used, but I feel like he often fumbles the ball and his picks aren't as strong as Amir's. JV often rolls too soon or into clogged areas.

                        Lately, his shots just haven't been falling. He throws up really strong, flat shots that clank around on the rim. I'd like to see a little more finesse on those. On offense, he just seems to second guess himself a lot. It takes him a split second too long to take the ball up. He often holds the ball for a little too long before trying to initiate a post move.

                        On the boards, while he's taking it upon himself to play physical, it seems to me like he's getting a little too wrapped up in that. He's not watching the shot and feeling where the ball's going. My bet is he's working on his physicality and so is distracted from the other stuff going on. I don't think this is a bad thing, it's just a natural effect of working on his game.

                        I'd like to see Jonas work his man down into the block, take an entry pass and without hesitating, throw a shoulder fake to the baseline then calmly and precisely move into his paint-hook. I feel like he struggles to get that step on his defender.

                        I think JV's being given enough time to develop. He averages 30 minutes per game, and looks gassed when he plays much more than that. Casey's system may not be helping JV, but I'm not sold on that. I think Casey's is helping instil a strong defensive foundation. What JV needs is an opportunity to work with a top post coach like Lebron and Dwight have.
                        "Bruno?
                        Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                        He's terrible."

                        -Superjudge, 7/23

                        Hope you're wrong.

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                        • #42
                          bust.
                          Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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                          • #43
                            RandomGuy wrote: View Post
                            bust.
                            semi-bust. but very few can live up to the hype train.
                            "Bruno?
                            Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                            He's terrible."

                            -Superjudge, 7/23

                            Hope you're wrong.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              stooley wrote: View Post
                              You mentioned Jonas' post moves and his pick and roll. When he's hot, I agree, those things are working, but when he's not, they're just ugly. His go to post move is an out of control sprint into the paint followed by a top speed flying hook. It's a deadly moved if used well, but Jonas just looks a little out of control when he tries it. I also feel like JV's performance in the pick and roll is inconsistent. This could very well be caused by how little it's used, but I feel like he often fumbles the ball and his picks aren't as strong as Amir's. JV often rolls too soon or into clogged areas.
                              Just focusing on p'n'r (because Jonas obviously needs more post work, which is why it's frustrating that this and offensive rebounding have become his staples somehow), he's pretty good. He rolls well, and hard when he should, and he always has his hands up ready to receive a pass. He's shown the ability to finish in different ways, not always needing to be within dunking distance.

                              P'n'r is a two-man game, and we don't have anyone very good at running it right now, which is pretty pitiful when you're talking about pro ball. Vasquez is the best we have right now at running it, but he's been too inconsistent and doesn't share the floor with Jonas a lot.

                              Lowry blows at it. Lowry doesn't know how to lead his defender into a screen. He often gives low bounce passes to a big man with his arms up. He splits the defenders a lot, looking for his own path to the basket. He's terrible at pulling both defenders with him, creating the opening for his roller.....

                              So maybe we're not running it because we don't have a competent lead man to do it, but that's also pretty sad. P'n'r is the most basic two-man play in all of basketball. Never been a big fan of Lowry's style of play, and this is a big part of the reason why.

                              JV definitely needs another year or two at least of work on post moves....But that's why you run p'n'r. A guy doesn't need moves in it. Just needs to be able to catch and finish. Funny how much less Jonas was fumbling it or struggling to set screens when Jose was running it.

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                              • #45
                                white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                                ... Funny how much less Jonas was fumbling it or struggling to set screens when Jose was running it.
                                This

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