Marc Stein thinks Lowry is still being moved

[Fully]

Actually, I believe the whole thing started with no "report" of a single fact, or even one of those anonymous "source says" things, but a tweet about "sense around the league" guess(?). What does that "sense..." mean anyway? "Sense" among him and a few of his fellow media types? I don't know. Does anyone have any better insight to this, other than it's a babbling tweet that's simply regurgitating old "news"?

I missed you P00ka!

If you don't like the word 'report', then how about the word 'discussion' ?
This discussion started around the premise that Ujiri is still holding out for a large return on Lowry; not a simple dump of him to get worse in the short term. Can we move on with the actual topic now that we've hashed out that meaningless point over semantics? Man oh man.

[mcHAPPY]

From what we have read, Raptors management has really taken two steps forward. So, what makes you think Lowry is leaving when he:
1. Is appreciated for the first time in his career
2. Will have a staring role on a team he already knows
3. Is not a LBJ type where 30 teams are lining up to sign him?
Realistically, the only way I see him gone is he is offered a starting PG spot and a offer sheet well above market value. Is this possible? Sure. Likely? No way.
Raptors will match for sure any deal in the 4 years $40 million range. So, to pry Lowry away you need to offer him a 4 year, $45 million offer with a guaranteed staring role. Name me two teams in the league who can offer this? Lakers? Yes they fit the bill, but having Kobe and Nash is completly unlikely. Orlando? They are not competing anytime soon. Just do not see it. Lowry can be had if we want him.

1. What makes you sure he has forgotten old wounds with Casey? Being benched? Being told you might be traded, you might not? Knowing what Masai did with Nene/Afflalo?

2. What makes you sure he is happy with that? What if he has a case of "greener grass"?

3. Is the best PG available in free agency in a year where a lot of teams have cap space. The only thing going for the Raptors is most teams are set and PG has never been as deep as it is right now.



You last 2 paragraphs are your opinion and I respect that.

[Letter N]

What Dan said.

Kobe $22.5M
Lowry $9M


$30M left to fill out the roster plus $2.5M top up exception.

I think when the Lakers gave Kobe that contract for him to ride off into the sunset they accepted that they'd go into the luxury the next two years. I really can't see them being that stingy.

[mcHAPPY]

I think when the Lakers gave Kobe that contract for him to ride off into the sunset they accepted that they'd go into the luxury the next two years. I really can't see them being that stingy.

The Lakers might not be stingy but the CBA is.

[Shrub]

1. What makes you sure he has forgotten old wounds with Casey? Being benched? Being told you might be traded, you might not? Knowing what Masai did with Nene/Afflalo?

2. What makes you sure he is happy with that? What if he has a case of "greener grass"?

3. Is the best PG available in free agency in a year where a lot of teams have cap space. The only thing going for the Raptors is most teams are set and PG has never been as deep as it is right now.

All good points.

It's so easy to get lost in all the details with these forum discussions, but the message that really matters here is something is motivating Masai to trade Lowry. There's a reason.

[Primer]

All good points.

It's so easy to get lost in all the details with these forum discussions, but the message that really matters here is something is motivating Masai to trade Lowry. There's a reason.

The reason is obvious. Lowry is not restricted and will be a free agent after this season. Unless it's a lifetime guy like Duncan or Nowitzki, you don't assume anyone will resign in the offseason, especially when you're a middling team (our big selling point to Lowry is he starts and he's playing well here, not Championships). That's all the reason in the world for any competent GM to field offers on a player.

[Wiggins]

yes!

[Scraptor]

I think it'll take a lot more than one good month from the Nets or a few iffy losses from the Raps to swing the pendulum for Ujiri as much as is being suggested, don't you?

Again, this is a big-picture, patient guy. I think he's indicated he's got a pretty serious rebuild in mind (he has to to get to championship-contender status). The biggest determining factor when it comes to transactions, far bigger than the W/L record over the last 5 games, is what offers are on the table. He's shown a willingness to move all of his key pieces - multiple sources have reported that at some point during MU's tenure, every Raptors has been available save for JV (at least I never read anything about him). I really think that, given a good enough deal, MU would still move any player on this roster, right now. If the deals aren't good enough, he'll keep them. He's not going to weight a salary dump or the fear of a player walking in FA so heavily that he pulls a Rob Babcock-type trade. When he's offered enough for Lowry, he'll trade him. If he's offered crap, I think he'd keep him for a playoff run.

As far as Lowry "screwing" the Raps by carrying them to a poor draft position and then maybe leaving this summer - them's the breaks. Nobody predicted this post-Rudy success. MU had good reasons for keeping young players with upside when only weak offers were on the table. Heck, he would have traded Lowry to NY if not for Dolan. Obviously no offers after that were worth it. Shoulda woulda coulda's don't really bother me.

From Masai's interview last game it seems that our unexpected success was the very thing that led him to keep Lowry instead of proceeding with the teardown that began with Rudy. That was clearly tactical maneuvering. If Stein's sources are to be believed, then this would again be another swing of the pendulum.

[Edited to add: first evaluation period was to mid-December (45 days), and resulted in Gay being traded on December 8th. Then we start winning. Then on January 9th, "however, if the team stumbles through this three-week period, then a lot of hard decisions have to be made about personnel. That would put the team back on a trade footing." So a second evaluation period that ends right about now, when Lowry trade rumours start resurfacing. That doesn't sound like big picture thinking at all to me. It sounds like trying to react to the team's play instead of setting a course first. Tactics, not strategy.]

Here's my issue: them's the breaks is not an acceptable asset management strategy. If we end up with a first round exit, a weak pick, and no Lowry, I don't think Masai should be let off the hook that easy.

Lowry has been on a widely acknowledged underpaid contract the last few years and this may be his last chance to cash in. He's also playing at the highest level of his career. Not to mention he's had friction with Casey, which may or may not still be a factor according to that report a few weeks back. With all this in mind, MU had better be absolutely sure he knows the lay of the land as he considers his options.

[MACK11]

Lowry will get 10M-12M for 5 years from someone Book it!

[phiLLy]

Lowry will get 10M-12M for 5 years from someone Book it!

Would be surprised if he settled for less, or got offered less.

He's worth 10 - 12M for 5-Years, from a team that thinks he can sustain this level of play, and what-not.

Whether or not Toronto is willing to offer him that, who knows.

[octothorp]

Keep in mind that the Raptors are the only team that can offer him 5 years (unless they trade his rights, in which case that next team can offer him 5). Since that 5th year is going to be for a 32-year-old Lowry, you should be able to negotiate it for less, but give the player an extra year of security. So, basically top anyone else's offer by about 5 million over the life of the contract. If another team offers him $48 for 4 years, Toronto offers him $53 million for 5 years, and I think both sides would be okay with that (though I'd be happier with it somewhere around $45 million over 5).

If Ujiri feels that the odds of retaining Lowry are low, and the trade returns are high, then yeah, definitely make the trade. But if the odds of retaining Lowry are decent and the trade returns are low (I'd consider the package that New York opted not to trade as low), then take your chances resigning him in the offseason. On the other hand, if trade returns are crap and the odds of Lowry staying are low, or if the returns are good but there's a great chance of resigning Lowry, those are where there are hard decisions. These are unknown factors either way that make it impossible for us fans to make any sort of rational decisions on.

[BigCamB]

yes!

Must be the best news you've read all week.
Did you enjoy the game today?

[Tortacular]

Of course they're "interested". If somebody meets the price. Which is HIGH. That's what good GMs do. They demand value in return for assets. Do I think it's likely that Lowry gets traded? Nope. Teams don't want to part with multiple young assets (players/picks) for a guy on an expiring deal. And the Raptors have no reason to trade him otherwise. We're halfway through the season. The Raptors are in contention for homecourt, and have energized the fanbase as well as the roster. Trading a guy on a young team while you're winning sends a pretty confusing message to the rest of your roster. So you need a GOOD reason to do it.

If all they can get is a #1 in 2015 or later, then why not wait and just sign and trade him in the summer? You're not going to get worse than the Bucks or Sixers or Magic or Celtics or Cavs or Pistons. You're not going to get worse than the Jazz or Kings or Lakers. Why on earth would anybody tank to pick 8th or 9th? Even if you could get down below those teams, all-out tanking is not a solution to anything automatically, as all Raptors fans should know.

[Balls of Steel]

Keep in mind that the Raptors are the only team that can offer him 5 years (unless they trade his rights, in which case that next team can offer him 5). Since that 5th year is going to be for a 32-year-old Lowry, you should be able to negotiate it for less, but give the player an extra year of security. So, basically top anyone else's offer by about 5 million over the life of the contract. If another team offers him $48 for 4 years, Toronto offers him $53 million for 5 years, and I think both sides would be okay with that (though I'd be happier with it somewhere around $45 million over 5).

If Ujiri feels that the odds of retaining Lowry are low, and the trade returns are high, then yeah, definitely make the trade. But if the odds of retaining Lowry are decent and the trade returns are low (I'd consider the package that New York opted not to trade as low), then take your chances resigning him in the offseason. On the other hand, if trade returns are crap and the odds of Lowry staying are low, or if the returns are good but there's a great chance of resigning Lowry, those are where there are hard decisions. These are unknown factors either way that make it impossible for us fans to make any sort of rational decisions on.

Agreed 1000+.

[Balls of Steel]

Funny how we're speculating on a player that most GMs would want on their team but most coaches hate. Lowry himself is an interesting rollercoaster ride and polarizing player indeed.