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The * to Masai's proclamation of, "We will not be caught in no man's land."

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  • #16
    stooley wrote: View Post
    I guess that you'd need patience to wait to tank.

    I made a post about this somewhere else, but it's not like missing out on 2014 means that we won't ever be able to tank. The question would be, is the 2014 draft so good that it's worth selling assets for less than we could next year, just to get a higher pick this year. This is, of course, assuming we'd get higher valued returns later given this year's success and the market softening up a little.
    I get where you're coming from but, if the team intends to tank next season or the following season, what's the point of winning this season? It's looking like the absolute ceiling for the current roster would be an appearance in the 2nd round, likely getting destroyed by Miami/Indy; the Raps aren't exactly a championship contender hoping for one last season of playoff success before tearing it down (ie: Boston last season). If the team is going to tank in the near future, then I can't help but feel this will have been a wasted season.

    From my perspective, "this season" doesn't end until next season begins. Therefore, I'll withhold judgment until I see what happens at the draft and during next offseason.

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    • #17
      stooley wrote: View Post
      I guess that you'd need patience to wait to tank.

      I made a post about this somewhere else, but it's not like missing out on 2014 means that we won't ever be able to tank. The question would be, is the 2014 draft so good that it's worth selling assets for less than we could next year, just to get a higher pick this year. This is, of course, assuming we'd get higher valued returns later given this year's success and the market softening up a little.
      Exactly! Warren Buffet has made a fortune of playing-off others fears. He is a buyer in a buyers market and a seller in a sellers market. That's what I want from my GM! This year you have at least 10 teams in full-rebuild mode. Do you really want to sell you assets at way below market price, just so you can run uphill? And I see absolutely no evidence that there are 10 future all-stars in this years draft to make this route worthwhile.

      Comment


      • #18
        dzoni71 wrote: View Post
        Exactly! Warren Buffet has made a fortune of playing-off others fears. He is a buyer in a buyers market and a seller in a sellers market. That's what I want from my GM! This year you have at least 10 teams in full-rebuild mode. Do you really want to sell you assets at way below market price, just so you can run uphill? And I see absolutely no evidence that there are 10 future all-stars in this years draft to make this route worthwhile.
        But if Lowry walks for nothing, you've lost your opportunity to sell at all. Wouldn't a positive, yet below expected market value return, still be better than zero return?

        Comment


        • #19
          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
          I get where you're coming from but, if the team intends to tank next season or the following season, what's the point of winning this season? It's looking like the absolute ceiling for the current roster would be an appearance in the 2nd round, likely getting destroyed by Miami/Indy; the Raps aren't exactly a championship contender hoping for one last season of playoff success before tearing it down (ie: Boston last season). If the team is going to tank in the near future, then I can't help but feel this will have been a wasted season.

          From my perspective, "this season" doesn't end until next season begins. Therefore, I'll withhold judgment until I see what happens at the draft and during next offseason.
          So, this is a fun exercise. What will a winning season in 2014 contribute to the long term building of a contending franchise?

          I'd say:

          1. Experience winning. I know this is often dismissed, but I think having JV and Ross experience being on a functional team before the tear-down could contribute to their development. Once it's time for the team to step it back up, these guys, who will hopefully be core contributors, will be able to draw on past experience of how things were handled in the locker room when slumps set in, when a playoff loss happens, etc. It's also possible that despite playing a little less minutes, they're still playing in a proper system, which may be contributing to positive development.

          2. Increased value of assets. I think two things are driving the value of our assets down right now: a. the number of teams selling (Afflalo, Turner, Young, Rondo?, etc.) and b. lack of recognition. The team's performance is already bringing a lot more attention to guys like DD and Lowry and I think this stretch of games has at least somewhat increased their trade value.

          3. Assuming we stay in the lottery for and equal number of years, whether we tank this year or next, we'll receive one extra low pick in 2017 (?).

          4. A fun year to watch basketball before it goes to sh*t.

          And, on the other side of the coin, what are we losing:

          -1. Draft position in 2014.

          -2. One year off of JV's and Ross's rookie contract. This one's looking like it won't be too hurtful right now. I don't think either of those guys are gettting max extensions.

          -3. One year of my life (I'm only 22 so I can wait.)
          Last edited by stooley; Mon Jan 27, 2014, 04:31 PM.
          "Bruno?
          Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
          He's terrible."

          -Superjudge, 7/23

          Hope you're wrong.

          Comment


          • #20
            CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
            But if Lowry walks for nothing, you've lost your opportunity to sell at all. Wouldn't a positive, yet below expected market value return, still be better than zero return?
            Well what do you see as a positive return? Please define. To me a positive return isn't a 2nd rounder, expiring contracts, or a combo-guard that can't shoot or distribute (Shump).
            If MU can get first rounders, high-ceiling projects (Barnes), or good value contracts count me all in! And as far as I know we haven't been offered any of these.
            Last edited by dzoni71; Mon Jan 27, 2014, 04:21 PM.

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            • #21
              CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
              But if Lowry walks for nothing, you've lost your opportunity to sell at all. Wouldn't a positive, yet below expected market value return, still be better than zero return?
              Depends on the return. If it's "just" a second rounder and a bit of filler (speculating less than the NY proposal here), would the franchise rather keep Lowry and shoot for a 2nd round playoff series? If you were running the business rather than being a fan, how would you weight a mediocre return on a Lowry rental vs. first playoff series in 7 years and a legit shot at round 2?
              "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

              Comment


              • #22
                stooley wrote: View Post
                So, this is a fun exercise. What will a winning season in 2014 contribute to the long term building of a contending franchise?

                I'd say:

                1. Experience winning. I know this is often dismissed, but I think having JV and Ross experience being on a functional team before the tear-down could contribute to their development. Once it's time for the team to step it back up, these guys, who will hopefully be core contributors, will be able to draw on past experience of how things were handled in the locker room when slumps set in, when a playoff loss happens, etc. It's also possible that despite playing a little less minutes, they're still playing in a proper system, which may be contributing to positive development.

                2. Increased value of assets. I think two things are driving the value of our assets down right now: a. the number of teams selling (Afflalo, Turner, Young, Rondo?, etc.) and b. lack of recognition. The team's performance is already bringing a lot more attention to guys like DD and Lowry and I think this stretch of games has at least somewhat increased their trade value.

                3. Assuming we stay in the lottery for equally long, either way, we'll receive one extra low pick in 2017 (?).

                4. A fun year to watch basketball before it goes to sh*t.

                And, on the other side of the coin, what are we losing:

                -1. Draft position in 2014.

                -2. One year off of JV's and Ross's rookie contract. This one's looking like it won't be too hurtful right now. I don't think either of those guys are gettting max extensions.

                -3. One year of my life (I'm only 22 so I can wait.)
                I think that summarizes the pros/cons pretty well for both sides.

                I personally take the longer view (even at 36), preferring to do what's necessary to see better basketball a year sooner (based on your condition that a rebuild will take same # years regardless when it's started), especially is that better basketball will be sustainably good basketball.

                With regards to the bold, Toronto gets the extra 1st round pick (lower of NY/DEN) in 2016.

                Comment


                • #23
                  CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                  With regards to the bold, Toronto gets the extra 1st round pick (lower of NY/DEN) in 2016.
                  Right, right. I just mean that, imagine we begin tanking next year. Our first lottery pick is 2015. I'm assuming we stay in the lottery for 3 years, until 2017.

                  If we'd tanked this year, I'm saying we'd pick in the lottery until 2016.

                  That's kind of an arbitrary number, but I was just using it for argument's sake, since OKC had 3 high picks to turn 'er around.
                  "Bruno?
                  Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                  He's terrible."

                  -Superjudge, 7/23

                  Hope you're wrong.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    LOL, fans are OBSESSED with the need for Masai to lay out his plan for you, step by step. He's not a politician, he doesn't need to lay out his plans or make campaign promises.

                    The internet/twitter generation has made fans so impatient, demanding instant gratification and information.
                    9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      dzoni71 wrote: View Post
                      Well what do you see as a positive return. Please define. To me a positive return isn't a 2nd rounder, expiring contracts, or a combo-guard that can't shoot or distribute (Shump).
                      If MU can get first rounders, high-ceiling projects (Barnes), or good value contracts count me all in! And as far as I know we haven't been offered any of these.
                      That deal you outlined - Shumpert & expiring contracts & 2nd round pick - certainly isn't ideal and I'd hope MU turns it down.

                      However, if Toronto reaches the trade deadline while sitting in the 6-8 seed (or lower) in the EC and Lowry hasn't made his intentions to re-sign at a reasonable salary perfectly clear, then I would strongly consider that deal (assuming it's the best offer).

                      Shumpert would likely still have value around the league as a trade chip, even if Toronto had no use for him (he was apparently in high-demand last season and throughout the offseason). Having an extra 2nd round pick is better than not having one.

                      For me, it all comes down to information we don't have access to:
                      - does MU want Lowry to be the team's starting PG next season?
                      - does Lowry want to re-sign with Toronto?
                      - if the first two answers are "yes", will Lowry's salary demands be reasonable to MU?


                      S.R. wrote: View Post
                      Depends on the return. If it's "just" a second rounder and a bit of filler (speculating less than the NY proposal here), would the franchise rather keep Lowry and shoot for a 2nd round playoff series? If you were running the business rather than being a fan, how would you weight a mediocre return on a Lowry rental vs. first playoff series in 7 years and a legit shot at round 2?
                      If Toronto is sitting in the #3-5 spot in the EC, then suddenly accepting that deal (again, assuming it's the best offer received) isn't as easy to do, as the benefits of making the playoffs with an average-good chance at winning a 1st round series have to be factored into the evaluation.
                      Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Mon Jan 27, 2014, 04:50 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        KeonClark wrote: View Post
                        LOL, fans are OBSESSED with the need for Masai to lay out his plan for you, step by step. He's not a politician, he doesn't need to lay out his plans or make campaign promises.

                        The internet/twitter generation has made fans so impatient, demanding instant gratification and information.
                        It's more that I take pleasure in playing a game of fantasy GM. Nothing wrong with that now.
                        "Bruno?
                        Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                        He's terrible."

                        -Superjudge, 7/23

                        Hope you're wrong.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          KeonClark wrote: View Post
                          LOL, fans are OBSESSED with the need for Masai to lay out his plan for you, step by step. He's not a politician, he doesn't need to lay out his plans or make campaign promises.

                          The internet/twitter generation has made fans so impatient, demanding instant gratification and information.
                          If you're only interested in watching the games and not strapping on your GM, Head Coach or Scouting hat, why are you here?

                          I don't mean that facetiously, I'm just asking a rhetorical question. Isn't that what 95% of the discussion on here is all about?

                          Haha and I wish I was that young!

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            keonclark wrote: View Post
                            lol, fans are obsessed with the need for masai to lay out his plan for you, step by step. He's not a politician, he doesn't need to lay out his plans or make campaign promises.

                            The internet/twitter generation has made fans so impatient, demanding instant gratification and information.
                            tl;dr
                            "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              KeonClark wrote: View Post
                              LOL, fans are OBSESSED with the need for Masai to lay out his plan for you, step by step. He's not a politician, he doesn't need to lay out his plans or make campaign promises.
                              Exactly! Not only is he not obliged to cater to fans curiosity, he would be undermining his position with the other GM's. It is fun discussing the unknowns of your teams future, but we need to have a sense of reality.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                stooley wrote: View Post
                                It's more that I take pleasure in playing a game of fantasy GM. Nothing wrong with that now.
                                CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                                If you're only interested in watching the games and not strapping on your GM, Head Coach or Scouting hat, why are you here?

                                I don't mean that facetiously, I'm just asking a rhetorical question. Isn't that what 95% of the discussion on here is all about?

                                Haha and I wish I was that young!
                                Of course strapping on the fantasy GM hat is fun. I'm speaking on the overall tone of the posts that go "why hasn't Masai said anything?", "Why hasn't Masai traded anybody", "Why are we in no mans land??"

                                Y'know, the posts you see here on daily basis.
                                9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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