Confessions of a TANKER

[Bendit]

Agree with the OP.

Am still of the opinion that MU's main objective in trading Gay was to rid the team of the contract/get fiscal clarity going forward and taking a flyer on the players coming back. The flyer worked. Around the same time Dolan changed his mind on Lowry. The Raptors are the better for both happenings.

MU adjusts thinking. As the op indicates, he has more and valuable assets and more options except for a "guaranteed" shot at a high pick. It will be a sad day however if Lowry walks but I feel with some of the reports I have read that there maybe an understanding between the two going forward (their 1on1 talks eg.). I hope so.

Philly is the classic intentional dismantle/rebuild. That team's results in the next 3-4 years is going to be a case study used to provide fodder for the tank/anti tank arguments which occupied so much of the board's discussions last year. While I was a rebuild / get a high pick advocate I am glad the Raps are not them. Another similar example in another league is the Buffalo Sabres. There are reports they might well do it again for another year mostly to have a shot at one of those "transcedental" players due to be drafted then (McDavid).

[OldSkoolCool]

I really like the financially flexibility moving forwards.

This^

Going into the season we needed to get some flexibility, whether it resulted in tanking or winning it does not matter, Ujiri needed to get us out of both the Bargnani and Gay contracts..

2013 was so bad.

Look at this lottery:

1 1 Anthony Bennett PF/SF Canada Cleveland Cavaliers UNLV (Fr.)
1 2 Victor Oladipo SG/PG United States Orlando Magic Indiana (Jr.)
1 3 Otto Porter SF United States Washington Wizards Georgetown (So.)
1 4 Cody Zeller PF/C United States Charlotte Bobcats Indiana (So.)
1 5 Alex Len C Ukraine Phoenix Suns Maryland (So.)
1 6 Nerlens Noel# C United States New Orleans Pelicans (traded to Philadelphia)[A] Kentucky (Fr.)
1 7 Ben McLemore SG United States Sacramento Kings Kansas (Fr.)
1 8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG United States Detroit Pistons Georgia (So.)
1 9 Trey Burke PG United States Minnesota Timberwolves (traded to Utah)[B] Michigan (So.)
1 10 C.J. McCollum PG/SG United States Portland Trail Blazers Lehigh (Sr.)
1 11 Michael Carter-Williams PG/SG United States Philadelphia 76ers Syracuse (So.)
1 12 Steven Adams C New Zealand Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto via Houston)[a] Pittsburgh (Fr.)
1 13 Kelly Olynyk C Canada Dallas Mavericks (traded to Boston)[C] Gonzaga (Jr.)
1 14 Shabazz Muhammad SG/SF United States Utah Jazz (traded to Minnesota)[B] UCLA (Fr.)

I like Oladipo as a franchise leader, just not as a franchise talent, I think he will be able to get his teammates to always play hard and will be a part of winning organizations. MCW, McLemore, TH Jr., Burke and -Noel- I think can all be great pieces, just not franchise altering...well maybe Noel IF he becomes a defensive force. Bennett I still think can become a terror of a player, dude has freak length and a great skill set in the current NBA...

Also Greak Freak could become a true point forward who plays two way basketball, has the potential to be a franchise guy

So I think 2013 is a bit better than some realize

[3inthekeon]

Again, I ask, how many franchise talents are in the NBA? 2? 5? 10? I keep hearing the term, but I never hear it defined more than vaguely.

[Nilanka]

Again, I ask, how many franchise talents are in the NBA? 2? 5? 10? I keep hearing the term, but I never hear it defined more than vaguely.

Truth is, everyone you ask will have a different answer, so you're never going to get a accurate number.

But we do currently have a player capable of leading us to conference championships? My vote would be 'no'.

[BigCamB]

A lot of very good points in there, I agree with most of the OP.
Great thread.

[white men can't jump]

I was always with the "maximize value" rationale. I'm quite happy with the way things have worked out. This is the part of the OP that I like the most:

The 2012-13 run to end last season was an #AprilFoolsGoldRun at its finest. Had the Raptors stayed with Gay, this season would have been an utter poop show and waste. With the epic tanks put in by a number of teams, the Raptors likely would have been sitting in current Detroit/Cleveland territory - not awful enough to get a top 5 record, not good enough to even sniff at the playoffs: awful ball, Ross buried on the bench, JV ignored more than he already is after 1st Q, no stat sheets, DeRozan an inefficient side kick, a passive Lowry, no depth/bench (which is scary considering current lack of depth and bench)..... oh what dreadful prospects indeed

Things were heading in a very bad direction last summer, and I'm glad Ujiri didn't wait long at all before repairing the damage done to the team. He had to pick a "direction", and his direction went with patience and maximizing value. Trade Gay for a better financial situation, which also allowed all the core pieces to fit better together. This could've easily resulted in continued losing, but there's no way we'd still be playing terrible ball with the young guys being a complete afterthought.

Is it going to be hard to get a franchise-altering talent to really ensure a chance at prolonged contention??? Absolutely. It was always going to be hard though. We don't know at all if any of the players in the 2014 draft will be that guy, so it was always a bad idea to go the Philly route (which is generally a bad idea given the extent of their tank job), especially because it would've been hard to be that bad. And now we're a good (but not great) young team with much more financial flexibility, and all our assets are playing up their value. We may be able to trade or buy such a talent within the next couple of years.

I'm pretty happy with where things stand. No clue what the ultimate direction will be, but I like that the Raps have options. It didn't feel that way last spring. Now they have no bad contracts, lots of youth, no outgoing draft picks, and possible capspace in upcoming summers (even possibly significant space).

[Primer]

Couldn't disagree with Simmons more on 2nd round picks.

"People get carried away with second-round picks because they’re cost-effective assets if you nail them, but recent history says you have about a 10 percent chance of landing a rotation player from picks 31 to 40. (Since 2009, only Draymond Green, Kyle Singler, Chandler Parsons, Lance Stephenson, DeJuan Blair and MAYBE Nate Wolters came through.) "

No idea why he limited it to picks 31-40, because that effectively removed 20 picks each year where some really good rotation/starters came from. He listed about 1/4 of the 2nd round picks since 2009 that are playing decent minutes in the NBA (e.g. rotation players). For instance, Marcus Thornton isn't included (43rd pick 2009), yet he averages about 26 minutes per game for his career, including this season.

Hell, just from the 2009 2nd round I could add Dante Cunningham, Jeff Pendergraph, Sam Young, Jonas Jerebko, Jodie Meeks, Patrick Beverly, Chase Budinger, Nick Calathes, Danny Green, Nando de Colo!!!, and Patty Mills. With Blair, that makes 12 players from the 2009 2nd round that are still averaging over 10 minutes per game in the NBA (e.g. rotation players). Some much much more than that. I'd say the chances of getting a player that sticks in the 2nd round is closer to 35% than 10%.

[JimiCliff]

Was anyone really pining for a player in the 2013 draft though? It was widely known as one of the worst draft classes in recent memory. A stark contrast to that of the 2014 draft.

I'm talking about this year's draft.

Before the college season started, many were pegging Wiggins and Parker as franchise altering talents. Most analysts aren't willing to go that far anymore, even with Embiid.

[JimiCliff]

Truth is, everyone you ask will have a different answer, so you're never going to get a accurate number.

But we do currently have a player capable of leading us to conference championships? My vote would be 'no'.

I'd say Lowry's damn close, if he isn't already there.

Obviously with this team, that won't be happening. But imagine for a sec that all of Demar, Ross and Val were three years older? Could Lowry lead them through one of Miami/Indy? I think so.

[white men can't jump]

Again, I ask, how many franchise talents are in the NBA? 2? 5? 10? I keep hearing the term, but I never hear it defined more than vaguely.

Well you'll see different opinions....

The obvious ones:
Durant and LeBron

They are the only 2 surefire franchise-altering players in the moment.

Arguable....on the fringe (either proven they're just not quite there, or haven't proved they are yet but are close):
Howard, Harden, Griffin, Curry, Paul.........Rose was before the injury issues.

There could be other guys in the above list, but that part depends on opinion. Some guys have the potential, but haven't even proven enough to be on that fringe level (eg. Westbrook, Wall, Love, Davis, Cousins, etc). Think I'd put George here too. He's a great player, and plays both ends, but I just don't see "dominant" a lot from him. That's the most important quality of a "franchise-altering" player: the ability to flat out dominate and take over a game. The more consistently you can do this, the more you cement your status, which is why Durant and LeBron are the only obvious ones right now.

There are usually not more than 3-5 truly dominant franchise players in the league at any given time. So getting one is extremely difficult.

[Nilanka]

I'm talking about this year's draft.

Before the college season started, many were pegging Wiggins and Parker as franchise altering talents. Most analysts aren't willing to go that far anymore, even with Embiid.

It does seem like some expectations have been tempered, but the potential to drastically alter a franchise is still there. We just can't expect a Lebron-esque tranformation.

[Nilanka]

I'd say Lowry's damn close, if he isn't already there.

Obviously with this team, that won't be happening. But imagine for a sec that all of Demar, Ross and Val were three years older? Could Lowry lead them through one of Miami/Indy? I think so.

Lowry, at his current level of play, is close. But in 3 years, when he's 30, what will be Lowry's level of play?

To be honest, we're not even sure what Lowry's level of play will be next year without the motivation of a new contract.

[BobLoblaw]

This idea actually just adds strength to Matt's position, because over the year it's become pretty clear that none of these potential draftees that some of us were pining for in the summer/fall are actually franchise altering talent. Not at the Duncan, Lebron, or Anthony Davis level.

I don't think that's clear yet at all. I'd say that there's no clear safe superstar prospect in this draft.

[golden]

@Matt. lol.

[BobLoblaw]

Couldn't disagree with Simmons more on 2nd round picks.

"People get carried away with second-round picks because they’re cost-effective assets if you nail them, but recent history says you have about a 10 percent chance of landing a rotation player from picks 31 to 40. (Since 2009, only Draymond Green, Kyle Singler, Chandler Parsons, Lance Stephenson, DeJuan Blair and MAYBE Nate Wolters came through.) "

No idea why he limited it to picks 31-40, because that effectively removed 20 picks each year where some really good rotation/starters came from. He listed about 1/4 of the 2nd round picks since 2009 that are playing decent minutes in the NBA (e.g. rotation players). For instance, Marcus Thornton isn't included (43rd pick 2009), yet he averages about 26 minutes per game for his career, including this season.

Hell, just from the 2009 2nd round I could add Dante Cunningham, Jeff Pendergraph, Sam Young, Jonas Jerebko, Jodie Meeks, Patrick Beverly, Chase Budinger, Nick Calathes, Danny Green, Nando de Colo!!!, and Patty Mills. With Blair, that makes 12 players from the 2009 2nd round that are still averaging over 10 minutes per game in the NBA (e.g. rotation players). Some much much more than that. I'd say the chances of getting a player that sticks in the 2nd round is closer to 35% than 10%.

It's rare to have so many decent players in the lower end of the 2nd round, though. More often than not, the 31-40 range is stronger.

Also, your definition of a "rotation player" is just more generous than Simmons's. He's really focusing on higher end clear rotation players that play big minutes. Neither you or him is wrong in that respect, just different definitions.

My bigger issue with his statement is that he's using the most recent drafts for this. You can't judge a draft until after a few years. If he ignored the last two drafts, which he just doesn't know enough about yet, and took 2007 and 2008 drafts instead, then he'd find a bunch of solid names in that same 31-40 range and his math would be completely different. Nikola Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Omer Asik, Luc Mbah a Moute, Carl Landry, Baby Davis, Josh McRoberts.