Confessions of a TANKER

[mcHAPPY]

Good opening post, and lots of good replies since then that cover varying sides and angles.

I banged the rebuild drum all summer long and up to the Rudy Gay trade. I thought the team was going nowhere with the DD/Gay/Lowry core, and the uncertainty of Gay's contract for next year (to say nothing about him making $20 million dollars in 2014-15) made it really difficult to formulate a plan moving forward. I assumed that whatever pieces moved out in order to shake up the roster would return more future value than present day value - draft picks, young project players, expiring deals, etc. I never wanted a Philadelphia-esque blowout sale where anyone who would help them win games had to be shipped out for pennies on the dollar. I just wanted a new direction, more options moving forward and for guys like Ross and JV to be able to develop. While this was happening, I thought a top draft pick in 2014 would be an awesome bi-product of it all.

What Masai's exact intentions were when he swung the deal with Sacramento will probably always be a mystery, but I think you have to be a little naive to believe that the team would take off like this. It's not like he scanned players around the league and said to himself "I bet PP, Hayes, Vasquez and Salmons are who we need to turn it around in Toronto!" By all accounts the Kings were the only team who was willing to trade for Gay and even that was a huge surprise to most. Most of those players were struggling mightily in Sacramento too. At the time, it looked like we were getting one decent piece in Vasquez and the rest were throw ins to match Gay's enormous salary.

Throw in all the Lowry rumours in the following week and the widespread reporting in both Toronto and abroad that the rebuild was on and I'd still maintain that Ujiri didn't see this coming.

All of that is a moot point now however. The team has taken off and if the playoffs began today they would be holding home court in a playoff series. The books are cleared up considerably, and Ujiri hasn't had to sacrifice any young players or future draft picks to get them in a playoff position. Somehow - he's even managed to gain a few extra picks along the way. He has done what I deemed impossible about six months ago - improved the team in the short term while expanding on his options moving forward. Did he get lucky along the way by catching lightning in a bottle with this group? Absolutely - but he deserves credit for being flexible in his approach and for sticking to his word of letting his players dictate their own direction.

Is there still a chance that we look back at this season in a few years and call it a throw away? It's tough to think about with all the positivity swirling around the team right now but it's a possibility. It depends on what happens with Lowry this summer (and in subsequent seasons), what their 2014 draft picks ends up being, what they do with their 2015 cap space, etc. I'd spend a lot more time worrying about those things if we were trudging through another 35 win season - with quality basketball being played and playoffs on the horizon, it's a lot easier to just enjoy the present and cross those bridges when they approach. Masai has earned the benefit of the doubt.

I agree with the bold and the Masai sentiments.

I think what Masai did though was ignore Step 4 from Simmons' Philly Guide to Tanking Perfection. He wasn't willing to give up assets for less than what he deemed fair value in the hopes of a tank working and balls bouncing the right way. I also remember reading a rumour that said DD was available (this was long before AS selection) but for a surprisingly high return. I like that. I've got no issue trading anyone on this team if Masai thinks in the long run it makes the team better and they get a good return.

Draft night should be fun this year! Flexibility and assets! Whoo!

[Axel]

I still think it's too early to even judge on this. You can't judge the big picture based on a battle for playoff seeding in March. Until we know exactly what happens with Lowry (will he resign? at what price?), we are still in the middle of the first process. Yes, we are beyond the majority of the season, but the "blow it up and rebuild" strategy wasn't about October to April, it was about putting the team in the best position moving forward for years to come. If Lowry walks for nothing, then this season will have been a failure. If Lowry is over-paid, then this season will have been a failure. If Lowry re-signs, then turns into the pre-"contract year" Lowry, then it's a failure.

Masai was definitely caught off guard by the team's play after dumping Gay. That was evident based on the Lowry trade talks. Considering how tight lipped Masai is, I don't think there is anyway to discount the Lowry trade rumours as anything but real. The vast majority of the "pro-tank" movement suggested that we must trade Gay or Demar (ideally Gay) and we must trade Lowry before he has a chance to walk; that was very close to the reality. Most people wanted Gay gone but feared that his contract would be un-movable, hence Demar was the only movable asset available to clear the wing redundancy.

Everyone was thankful for that trade with Sacramento. However, Lowry's story isn't complete. Until it is, we can't judge the success/failure of the season unless your only barometer was to make the playoffs this year. Patience and focus on the long term was the mantra of the movement, we must maintain these traits before we start any evaluation.

[Nilanka]

I confess to having about as little faith in all things Toronto sports as Creationist in the fossil record.

If evolution is real, why are there still monkeys?

[Raptor Jesus]

If Lowry walks for nothing, then this season will have been a failure. If Lowry is over-paid, then this season will have been a failure. If Lowry re-signs, then turns into the pre-"contract year" Lowry, then it's a failure.

I agree it's far to early to judge the season as anything but a surprise.

The Bold doesn't add up.

If Lowry walks for nothing, our young pieces still experienced a hard nose dedicated veterans leadership. Still played meaningful minutes throughout the season. Then experienced the playoffs. They we're engaged and part of meaningful progress. The opposite of what Michael Kid Gillcrest is playing through.
If Lowry is over-paid, so be it. It isn't your money. We've heard that the organization is will to be a tax team. If he makes our ball club better that's the price of admission. He's shown this year he has value, and NBA GMs have shown repeatedly that the Albatross contracts won't deter them from adding value. So he won't be dead weight.
If Lowry re-signs and regresses will still have the best point guard we've had since Alvin Williams. Short list for best ever IMO.

Our 2 young-ins are starters on a 3rd seed.
DD is an all-star.
We can add a banner to the rafters.
Everyone will get playoff experience.
We still have our picks. We cleared the books of the 2 worst contracts. We have flexibility and leverage.
I think most of all knowing what we do now, we know that we never had a shot at a lottery pick. Some teams are just plain terrible. While others are willing to tank heavy. So this draft never had our franchise altering talent 1-5. Maybe, maybe he's 6-15 and we need to make moves to get there. Fine. I think we finally have the pieces and stewardship to get there if need be.

[magoon]

Higher trade value in DeRozan - due to AS status and $9.5M contract (i.e. what you can get back at $9.5M versus $3.3M).

In the draft, though, this is potentially the opposite; if you're trading Ross or DeMar to get a pick, it's entirely possible the other team doesn't want anything back. It's team-variable. The Lakers might want DeMar because they would trade their lottery pick and Steve Nash's contract, for example; Phoenix, on the other hand, doesn't have any junk salary and might want Ross for one or two of their picks.

Also, Ross and JV don't need to be resigned until the summer of 2016 when they'll be restricted free agents with a collective cap hold of ~ $20M. Signing them any earlier for more than their cap hold would be risky if they have 2016 free agent aspirations.

Any team that wants to hang on to its rookies doesn't wait for the RFA year; they sign the extension the year before because the rookie extension is so useful for teams in this regard, it makes sure that the team doesn't have to fight with other teams following a contract year, and the rookie gets a guaranteed deal earlier, so everybody wants to do it if possible. (Indiana right now has problems precisely because they didn't extend Lance Stephenson and whoooops.) The only serious reason to let rooks go into RFA is if you think they're not going to pan out or become stars, which is the reason we have Vasquez and Patterson as RFAs next year.

(DeMar's extension was only a mediocre move because Colangelo likely overpaid at the time and probably could have managed $7.5-8m per year rather than $9.5m.)

[Axel]

I agree it's far to early to judge the season as anything but a surprise.

The Bold doesn't add up.

If Lowry walks for nothing, our young pieces still experienced a hard nose dedicated veterans leadership. Still played meaningful minutes throughout the season. Then experienced the playoffs. They we're engaged and part of meaningful progress. The opposite of what Michael Kid Gillcrest is playing through.
If Lowry is over-paid, so be it. It isn't your money. We've heard that the organization is will to be a tax team. If he makes our ball club better that's the price of admission. He's shown this year he has value, and NBA GMs have shown repeatedly that the Albatross contracts won't deter them from adding value. So he won't be dead weight.
If Lowry re-signs and regresses will still have the best point guard we've had since Alvin Williams. Short list for best ever IMO.

Our 2 young-ins are starters on a 3rd seed.
DD is an all-star.
We can add a banner to the rafters.
Everyone will get playoff experience.
We still have our picks. We cleared the books of the 2 worst contracts. We have flexibility and leverage.
I think most of all knowing what we do now, we know that we never had a shot at a lottery pick. Some teams are just plain terrible. While others are willing to tank heavy. So this draft never had our franchise altering talent 1-5. Maybe, maybe he's 6-15 and we need to make moves to get there. Fine. I think we finally have the pieces and stewardship to get there if need be.

What impact does leadership and dedication have on these young players if said leader walks away to another team? On top of poor asset management, it doesn't send a great message to the young players.

It is impossible to predict the immovability of an over-paid player. Gay and Bargnani are examples, but tying up a big contract to a player with multiple red flags in his career (attitude, weight, injury) is risky. He could be like Chauncey Billups or he could be like Raymond Felton (extreme example, but both are "strong" guards). This is also the first time Lowry has been healthy for the entire season. You can't trade an injured $10 million contract, and that impacts the team's flexibility to make moves, regardless of who's money it is.

If Lowry regresses, then it will be the same as being over-paid. A regressed Lowry isn't in the conversation for best PG in team history. This season, the contract year version, is the only Lowry that enters that convo. If we are paying for this year, and we get a different version, then we over-paid and get a bad example for the young players you mentioned above.

As for the underlined bold, we shouldn't raise banners for winning our division. If we win, it will largely be by default anyway since it's the worst division possibly ever. Since you play your own division the most, our record gets inflated by beating on the 76ers and Celtics. Save the banners for real accomplishments; NBA Championships or bust.

I expected the "tank" to net the team the #8 pick in the draft. That is where my expectations lay for the rebuild's incoming asset (rookie). Gary Harris was the name, but from there we'd have a legit chance to trade up for a Wiggins or Exum.

[special1]

I still think it's too early to even judge on this. You can't judge the big picture based on a battle for playoff seeding in March. Until we know exactly what happens with Lowry (will he resign? at what price?), we are still in the middle of the first process. Yes, we are beyond the majority of the season, but the "blow it up and rebuild" strategy wasn't about October to April, it was about putting the team in the best position moving forward for years to come. If Lowry walks for nothing, then this season will have been a failure. If Lowry is over-paid, then this season will have been a failure. If Lowry re-signs, then turns into the pre-"contract year" Lowry, then it's a failure.

Masai was definitely caught off guard by the team's play after dumping Gay. That was evident based on the Lowry trade talks. Considering how tight lipped Masai is, I don't think there is anyway to discount the Lowry trade rumours as anything but real. The vast majority of the "pro-tank" movement suggested that we must trade Gay or Demar (ideally Gay) and we must trade Lowry before he has a chance to walk; that was very close to the reality. Most people wanted Gay gone but feared that his contract would be un-movable, hence Demar was the only movable asset available to clear the wing redundancy.

Everyone was thankful for that trade with Sacramento. However, Lowry's story isn't complete. Until it is, we can't judge the success/failure of the season unless your only barometer was to make the playoffs this year. Patience and focus on the long term was the mantra of the movement, we must maintain these traits before we start any evaluation.

I pretty much agree with the overall point of this post. Although, I do have a bit more of a positive outlook on this season, regardless of what happens with Kyle Lowry.

I like the fact that our sophmores have BIG roles on a (currently) top 3 team in the east.

I do agree that patience is important moving forward. Earlier in the season we had no idea what we had in this team and i think many were in a rush to make changes for the sake.

I would like us all to be honest and acknowledge that trading Demar instead of Gay likely would've been the biggest failure to this organization. We wouldn't have the bench (2Pat, GV, Salmons, Hayes) we currently have and we wouldn't have as much flexibility as we do now. This team would probably not have it's current record and worse, we'd be stuck with Gay's overpaid blackhole play/contract for at least another year.

[mcHAPPY]

In the draft, though, this is potentially the opposite; if you're trading Ross or DeMar to get a pick, it's entirely possible the other team doesn't want anything back. It's team-variable. The Lakers might want DeMar because they would trade their lottery pick and Steve Nash's contract, for example; Phoenix, on the other hand, doesn't have any junk salary and might want Ross for one or two of their picks.



Any team that wants to hang on to its rookies doesn't wait for the RFA year; they sign the extension the year before because the rookie extension is so useful for teams in this regard, it makes sure that the team doesn't have to fight with other teams following a contract year, and the rookie gets a guaranteed deal earlier, so everybody wants to do it if possible. (Indiana right now has problems precisely because they didn't extend Lance Stephenson and whoooops.) The only serious reason to let rooks go into RFA is if you think they're not going to pan out or become stars, which is the reason we have Vasquez and Patterson as RFAs next year.

(DeMar's extension was only a mediocre move because Colangelo likely overpaid at the time and probably could have managed $7.5-8m per year rather than $9.5m.)

I disagree on the bold.

Teams might want to sign an extension early but they certainly aren't going to get a deal done just for the sake of getting a deal done. If there is disagreement on what a player is worth, teams will let the market set the price and match in RFA. With guaranteed max guys, there is no sense in waiting unless the team doesn't want to tie up cap space for free agency and the cap hold is lower. However unless a team is getting a player for what they think is less than open market value or a player is willing to give up a few million for the guarantee of many more, why would a team sign a year early?

As for teams that waited for RFA (off top of my head):
Portland did it with Batum,
NO did it with Gordon,
Indy did it with Hibbert,
Atlanta did it with Teague,
Bobcats did it with Henderson,
Wolves did it with Pekovic,
Spurs did it with Splitter.

[Axel]

I pretty much agree with the overall point of this post. Although, I do have a bit more of a positive outlook on this season, regardless of what happens with Kyle Lowry.

I like the fact that our sophmores have BIG roles on a (currently) top 3 team in the east.

I do agree that patience is important moving forward. Earlier in the season we had no idea what we had in this team and i think many were in a rush to make changes for the sake.

I would like us all to be honest and acknowledge that trading Demar instead of Gay likely would've been the biggest failure to this organization. We wouldn't have the bench (2Pat, GV, Salmons, Hayes) we currently have and we wouldn't have as much flexibility as we do now. This team would probably not have it's current record and worse, we'd be stuck with Gay's overpaid blackhole play/contract for at least another year.

I cringe every time someone calls us a Top 3 team in the East. This year isn't normal. Our current Winning % (.567) would not have us winning the division or even top 4 in the east most years. LAst year, our % would have us 3rd in the division and 5th in the East. 2012 - 2nd in Division, 6th in East, 2011 - 2nd in Division, 5th in East, 2010 - 2nd in Division, 6th in East, 2009 - 2nd in Division, 5th in East.

Even if you take into consideration the post-Gay % (you should also factor in that most years the other teams are better, so that should balance it out) we are still really a 5th-6th seed in the east.

I don't think anyone wanted to trade Demar over Gay, but the thought was that Gay was untradable with his contract/production and Demar would be the only player on the team (other than JV) that would return enough assets to kick-start the rebuild.

[BobLoblaw]

Any team that wants to hang on to its rookies doesn't wait for the RFA year; they sign the extension the year before because the rookie extension is so useful for teams in this regard, it makes sure that the team doesn't have to fight with other teams following a contract year, and the rookie gets a guaranteed deal earlier, so everybody wants to do it if possible. (Indiana right now has problems precisely because they didn't extend Lance Stephenson and whoooops.) The only serious reason to let rooks go into RFA is if you think they're not going to pan out or become stars, which is the reason we have Vasquez and Patterson as RFAs next year.

(DeMar's extension was only a mediocre move because Colangelo likely overpaid at the time and probably could have managed $7.5-8m per year rather than $9.5m.)

By the way, Indiana can't realistically extend Lance because he's not a 1st rounder. They are only allowed to offer him slightly over 1 mil a year in an extension. Houston is in a similar situation with Chandler Parsons next year.

We often talk about how early 2nd picks are in many ways better than late 1st rounders, but there definitely are some downsides as well.

[3inthekeon]

The Lowry negotiations at year end will be very telling. If the team can't hold on to him without a massive overpay, he will become one more in a long line of premium players that simply did not want to stay in Toronto. The organization has all the pieces in place for future success. They brought in Leiweke and Ujiri, they have a young core with real potential to improve and are finally instilling a winning culture. If that isn't enough of a selling point, I don't know what is.

[Raptor Jesus]

Poor asset management? If he walks he lives out the contract MU's predecessor gave him. Nobody offered a first overall so he wasn't traded. Nobody came calling for a S&T.

The example set is of a professional, whom turned around the leagues perception through will and hard work. Whom also got your team into the playoffs. Then profited from his hard work.

The prediction is impossible not the act. You know the act is possible. You've seen it. If history isn't a good enough indicator that he can be moved whatever magic system you use to deem it difficult/impossible is just as flawed.

Regression Lowry is better than everyone on the depth chart. Regression Lowry is better than whomever you draft this or next year. Lowry earned the respect of his team-mates, coaches, management and fanbase. The market determined his value and we paid it. Or overpaid it. It doesn't matter. The example it sets would be how the organization deals with it.

Why question what others deem worthy of celebration? This campaign is reminiscent '06 division title. Why is it any less worthy of recognition? The banner signifies JV's and TR's among others hard work. A reminder of what they can accomplish. If Lowry walks and we sell high on DD to find ourselves in the lottery system again. It'll be the only achievement they can point to in this decade.

Why the hell would someone with the pick for Wiggins trade it to you?

[3inthekeon]

(DeMar's extension was only a mediocre move because Colangelo likely overpaid at the time and probably could have managed $7.5-8m per year rather than $9.5m.)

Love the "probably" as in what you've said is probably a crock of shit. Do you have any inside information as to what DD's camp was prepared to accept?

[Axel]

Poor asset management? If he walks he lives out the contract MU's predecessor gave him. Nobody offered a first overall so he wasn't traded. Nobody came calling for a S&T.

The example set is of a professional, whom turned around the leagues perception through will and hard work. Whom also got your team into the playoffs. Then profited from his hard work.

The prediction is impossible not the act. You know the act is possible. You've seen it. If history isn't a good enough indicator that he can be moved whatever magic system you use to deem it difficult/impossible is just as flawed.

Regression Lowry is better than everyone on the depth chart. Regression Lowry is better than whomever you draft this or next year. Lowry earned the respect of his team-mates, coaches, management and fanbase. The market determined his value and we paid it. Or overpaid it. It doesn't matter. The example it sets would be how the organization deals with it.

Why question what others deem worthy of celebration? This campaign is reminiscent '06 division title. Why is it any less worthy of recognition? The banner signifies JV's and TR's among others hard work. A reminder of what they can accomplish. If Lowry walks and we sell high on DD to find ourselves in the lottery system again. It'll be the only achievement they can point to in this decade.

Why the hell would someone with the pick for Wiggins trade it to you?

Regression Lowry is better than everyone on the roster. But you have to factor in the opportunity cost associated with not trading Lowry. Is regressed Lowry better than the return he would have gotten in a trade + the higher pick this team would have received? Removing Lowry would have sent this team into the absolute dregs of the league, and would have very much resulted in a top 6 pick. One of Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Exum, Randle, or Smart + whatever players/picks we received for Lowry in return is a pretty good value. Is Lowry better than that? If he regresses (fear the contract year), then I say Lowry isn't worth that.

If the Bucks get #1, and the Raps offer DD and pick # 7, would they not consider it? I'd bet their owner would, as DD and the #7 would get them back into the playoff revenue much faster than the #1 pick alone.

[JimiCliff]

Regression Lowry is better than everyone on the roster. But you have to factor in the opportunity cost associated with not trading Lowry. Is regressed Lowry better than the return he would have gotten in a trade + the higher pick this team would have received? Removing Lowry would have sent this team into the absolute dregs of the league, and would have very much resulted in a top 6 pick. One of Wiggins, Embiid, Parker, Exum, Randle, or Smart + whatever players/picks we received for Lowry in return is a pretty good value. Is Lowry better than that? If he regresses (fear the contract year), then I say Lowry isn't worth that.

If the Bucks get #1, and the Raps offer DD and pick # 7, would they not consider it? I'd bet their owner would, as DD and the #7 would get them back into the playoff revenue much faster than the #1 pick alone.

Given that they already have 'Po, seemingly a budding cornerstone in his own right, you have to think they would.