Hollinger and Sports Club Stats agree that the race for the final Western Conference playoff spot is essentially over; both give Houston less than a 10 percent chance of catching anyone in the pack of teams that's now half a dozen games ahead of the Rockets. They also see things similarly in the East, where Hollinger gives Toronto a 79.1 percent chance of nabbing the last playoff spot versus 23.4 percent for the Bulls, and Sports Club Stats puts the race at 89.3 percent to 12.7 percent. That surprised me, because while the Bulls and Raptors are very different teams, as far as I can tell, overall they are almost exactly even statistically, they both are on the skids and they have one head-to-head game left. But when I put a little probability model of my own together and looked at the results, I had to agree. Both teams face tough schedules over the final month of the season; my estimate gives Toronto 6.6 more wins out of 16 and the Bulls just 5.4 of 15. The Raptors have a game in hand, and their head-to-head meeting against Chicago is at home (April 11). Under those circumstances, Toronto's 2.5-game lead at the moment is huge. And that's just about the last playoff berth at stake.