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Why "selling high" on DeMar doesn't make sense

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  • #16
    imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    Looking at averages and stats tells you that drafting outside the top 5 in the lottery (6-14) you have an 84% chance of getting a player that is not worth an all-star.

    Now knowing that information, we can APPLY that to our specific case. Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for a top 5 pick? Is it worth it to trade DeRozan for instant cap relief and a 16% chance of getting a player as good and even smaller chance of getting a better one? To me the answer is a clear no.

    You get me a top 5 pick, where the guy has a 50% or so chance of becoming an all-star and my ears open a bit. Otherwise, no thanks, not taking that unnecessary risk.

    We're not OKC where we need to start selling away players to save money.
    No, cause we're not trading A Allstar for A Top 5 Pick. We're trading DeRozan for (for example) Wiggins.

    Now you look at DeRozan, and you look at Wiggins and you decide if that is worth the switch.

    What if the top 5 pick is Lebron, or Wade, or Chris Paul? Does that not affect your assessment of simply mindlessly following statistics?
    What if the All-Star is Jamal Magloire or Mo Williams? You're still going to stand by your overview look at the history of the NBA Draft?

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    • #17
      Letter N wrote: View Post
      No, cause we're not trading A Allstar for A Top 5 Pick. We're trading DeRozan for (for example) Wiggins.

      Now you look at DeRozan, and you look at Wiggins and you decide if that is worth the switch.

      What if the top 5 pick is Lebron, or Wade, or Chris Paul? Does that not affect your assessment of simply mindlessly following statistics?
      What if the All-Star is Jamal Magloire or Mo Williams? You're still going to stand by your overview look at the history of the NBA Draft?
      What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you've even read my post correctly.

      I specifically mentioned that if someone like Wiggins were to drop past 5 then sure maybe trade DeRozan for him.

      But I've seen suggestions here of trading DeRozan for Cleveland's pick or Sacramento's pick (not specific players). Why the hell would you trade a proven all-star for a 16% chance of getting the same thing 3-4 years down the road?

      If we can get a top 5 pick for DeMar then sure pull the trigger. The top 5 of this draft seem to be likely all-stars, with the top 3 having superstar potential it appears.

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      • #18
        imanshumpert wrote: View Post
        What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you've even read my post correctly.

        I specifically mentioned that if someone like Wiggins were to drop past 5 then sure maybe trade DeRozan for him.

        But I've seen suggestions here of trading DeRozan for Cleveland's pick or Sacramento's pick (not specific players). Why the hell would you trade a proven all-star for a 16% chance of getting the same thing 3-4 years down the road?

        If we can get a top 5 pick for DeMar then sure pull the trigger. The top 5 of this draft seem to be likely all-stars, with the top 3 having superstar potential it appears.
        Well were not gonna get a Top5 pick for Demar IMO
        So the best thing to do is keep him and see how he develops further
        Than later on if we do get an offer that would be reasonable we do it.
        "Both teams played hard my man" - Sheed

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        • #19
          MACK11 wrote: View Post
          Well were not gonna get a Top5 pick for Demar IMO
          So the best thing to do is keep him and see how he develops further
          Than later on if we do get an offer that would be reasonable we do it.
          We probably could get one in most years. Probably not this one though.

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          • #20
            Derozan has established himself as an elite level shooting guard in the NBA. As of this season, he was ranked third, behind Wade(2) and James Harden(1). (Link
            http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...2013-14-season

            We are all aware of the astounding shallow depth at the 2 guard position in the league today; it is like nothing before. Go back 10 years, and there were dozens of high-impact guards in the league (VC, AI, T Mac, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, Allen Houston,the list goes on).

            I am trusting MU, because he has proven to me that he can make trades that benefit this team both in the short and long term. (AB trade was more long term, RG22 trade was more short term).

            Derozan is a special case. He has grown here. He is the product of his environment. He is the product of a lacklustre franchise with a reputation of mediocracy and softness. Through all this, he has emerged as an all star and as a leader for this team, which many have already proclaimed to be one of the greatest Raptor teams in the franchise's 19 year tenure.

            Now, unless we can bring in someone who has any potential to have the same meaning, value, and impact to this city and to this team, then by all means such situations should be considered. MU has the opportunity to rake in a lot of assets/ a star player with Derozan, but it should not come at anything less than that. We do not need to have another Damon Stoudamire/ Tracy McGrady/ Vince Carter/ Chris Bosh situation, in which one of the best players of a young team is either traded or walks away, leaving us with nothing. In other words, Sell very high.

            Otherwise, forget about it. We have the 3rd best SG in the league on a viable contract. I am still a very strong proponent for building this team up even more with Derozan as a key component of the buildup. Derozan and Kevin Love, or Derozan and Kevin Durant are both great combinations.
            I know this may be a bit controversial but I think the Raptors have proven that they're the best team in the NBA from Canada
            -random Facebook user. 2016

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            • #21
              Joey wrote: View Post
              I'm not sure anyone wants to "get rid of him" ... nor do I believe anyone to be delusional; those who have floated the idea of trading Demar, usually preface it by saying "he's our most valuable trade asset", "bring back elite talent", "top tier prospect" etc. ... not exactly a slight. Demar has value, and therefore it's only natural to explore what that value might be. I think people in the US are starting the see that in these playoffs.

              To the OP, I completely agree that what we have in Demar is already better than what most could/would have hoped for, and should not be given up for just any package. The thing I'm surprised wasn't raised in all of this, is that people have been saying to "sell high" on him for years... and he keeps getting "higher". A player who continues to raise his 'ceiling' obviously has tremendous value.
              Could've mentioned this as well, you're 100% right. Haven't been at RR that long, but on other forums I've seen people wanting to trade the guy for expirings as recently as last season, or package him with Andrea to get rid of Bargs' (and his) contract.

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              • #22
                imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                What on earth are you talking about? I don't think you've even read my post correctly.

                I specifically mentioned that if someone like Wiggins were to drop past 5 then sure maybe trade DeRozan for him.

                But I've seen suggestions here of trading DeRozan for Cleveland's pick or Sacramento's pick (not specific players). Why the hell would you trade a proven all-star for a 16% chance of getting the same thing 3-4 years down the road?

                If we can get a top 5 pick for DeMar then sure pull the trigger. The top 5 of this draft seem to be likely all-stars, with the top 3 having superstar potential it appears.
                You kind of just disproved your own point. so if wiggins drops past five, wouldn't he statistically have a supremely low chance of ever becoming an all star then? Why does your chart all of a sudden not apply? Oh right, because looking at specific cases makes more sense rather than a super broad and undetailed chart telling us the obvious (top picks are generally better than late picks! No way!)

                Demar was drafted 9th. If we listen to this chart, we should have traded him right away because statistically he should have turned out to be nothing but a role player.


                Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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                • #23
                  YoungGunRaptor wrote: View Post
                  We are all aware of the astounding shallow depth at the 2 guard position in the league today; it is like nothing before.
                  Mostly because the difference between "shooting guard" and "small forward" is at this point negligible, much in the way that power forwards and centers have become much more alike. Paul George began as a shooting guard, was perfectly good at it, and got moved to small forward because Danny Granger was injured and Lance Stephenson slightly faster.

                  The appropriate comparison for DeMar is not "shooting guards" - it is "wings." Because that's what he is. He's certainly an well-above-average wing, but this playoff series is exposing him because even though he's playing decent defense he simply can't guard Joe Johnson - he doesn't have the lateral quickness to be an elite wing on defense. Plus there's the issue of his handles, which are not great.

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                  • #24
                    imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                    Well aware of this, but the importance of it is negligible. If you're trading DeRozan for a top prospect, that's a long-term move. Unless you get a LeBron or Durant, that player usually won't establish himself as a superstar until his 3rd season or so, at which point you have to extend their contract anyway... likely for more than what DeMar is currently making.
                    You missed my point. Even if the trade was simply DeRozan for a top-5 pick, the net effect would actually be DeRozan for a top-5 pick and whatever player(s) was signed/traded for with the $9.5M cap space previously used to pay DeRozan.

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                    • #25
                      DD is good value for his contract. If he makes strides on his D and handles, he's a long-term keeper. Don't see MU making any DD moves to secure a higher draft pick. It takes time and money to develop talent. I watch a lot of college bball and while Wiggins has a lot of upside, there were many times where he played like a freshmen and not the dominant presence that the media, TSN was hyping.
                      Last edited by ps77; Wed Apr 30, 2014, 01:50 AM.

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                      • #26
                        CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                        You missed my point. Even if the trade was simply DeRozan for a top-5 pick, the net effect would actually be DeRozan for a top-5 pick and whatever player(s) was signed/traded for with the $9.5M cap space previously used to pay DeRozan.
                        Didn't miss your point at all, it just doesn't matter.

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                        • #27
                          iblastoff wrote: View Post
                          You kind of just disproved your own point. so if wiggins drops past five, wouldn't he statistically have a supremely low chance of ever becoming an all star then? Why does your chart all of a sudden not apply? Oh right, because looking at specific cases makes more sense rather than a super broad and undetailed chart telling us the obvious (top picks are generally better than late picks! No way!)

                          Demar was drafted 9th. If we listen to this chart, we should have traded him right away because statistically he should have turned out to be nothing but a role player.


                          Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
                          Wiggins isn't going to drop past 5 so it doesn't really matter.

                          I haven't disproved anything, you've just misunderstood. The point is that trading DeRozan for any pick that isn't in the top 5 does not making any logical or statistical sense.

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                          • #28
                            The trade DD question cannot be answered without knowing the following:
                            1. Are we re-signing Kyle, 2-Pat, and Vasquez?
                            2. Who do we draft?
                            3. What is our cap flexibility?
                            4. How realistically can we compete for NBA championship in the next 3 years with the roster we assemble this off-season?

                            If there is enough evidence we can take the next step after this season, then you can easily answer NO, we are not trading DD. If MU (and that's his job, that's why he is being paid 7 figures) thinks we cannot compete, then he can entertain offers for DD, but only those that he feels can put us in competition in the future.

                            Any way you look at it, there is no clear-cut answer to the question of trading a player or not in the situation the Raptors are now. They are clearly not in rebuild mode, but also not good enough to compete for the ring. I personally think it is not likely we get an offer that would be worth our while, but there are only 2 players in this league that are untradeable and they are LBJ and KD.

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                            • #29
                              We should also know: is Casey coming back?

                              For me, that's the most important question regarding roster moves. This is especially true when you consider the fact that MU likes to tailor the roster to fit the coach. How would Demar fit with a new coach and style if that is to happen?

                              And as others have mentioned, and I'll echo again, if Demar were to be moved would we actually be selling high? IMO, we wouldn't as I believe he still has much room to grow and I also believe that he will realize that potential as long as he plays on a winning team.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                                Wiggins isn't going to drop past 5 so it doesn't really matter.

                                I haven't disproved anything, you've just misunderstood. The point is that trading DeRozan for any pick that isn't in the top 5 does not making any logical or statistical sense.
                                Is there anyone here who'd like to see Demar traded for a pick lower than 5? If so, which player would you be targeting?

                                Personally, I think this trade would be foolish because I think Demar's stock has risen to the point where you could get a top 5 for him. Possibly even a top 3, depending on which team you were negotiating with.
                                "Stop eating your sushi."
                                "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                                "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                                - Jack Armstrong

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