Why "selling high" on DeMar doesn't make sense

[planetmars]

The math in the OP makes sense to me as well... but I think it comes down to scouting. Some drafts are weak. So even a top 3 pick from 2013 wouldn't have been worth it (although I like Oladipo and I could see him one day being better than DD). If this draft coming up is expected to be strong than it's also possible that there could be guys after the top 5 that would end up as all-stars as well.

The key is I believe in MU and Weltman and their scouting abilities. If they believe that a guy drafted after #5 has better value than DD than I wouldn't question that trade/decision.

I do think a Holiday type offer is what MU would want anyway.. basically a high pick in one draft and another lottery pick in another draft. May not get two all-stars from those picks but could get two really good players who's sum is greater than what DD can bring to the table.

[stooley]

The math in the OP makes sense to me as well... but I think it comes down to scouting. Some drafts are weak. So even a top 3 pick from 2013 wouldn't have been worth it (although I like Oladipo and I could see him one day being better than DD). If this draft coming up is expected to be strong than it's also possible that there could be guys after the top 5 that would end up as all-stars as well.

The key is I believe in MU and Weltman and their scouting abilities. If they believe that a guy drafted after #5 has better value than DD than I wouldn't question that trade/decision.

I do think a Holiday type offer is what MU would want anyway.. basically a high pick in one draft and another lottery pick in another draft. May not get two all-stars from those picks but could get two really good players who's sum is greater than what DD can bring to the table.

good post

just to point out though - part of the value of the Holiday trade was in allowing Philly to tank on a super hyped draft. they probably preferred that Noel be out this year.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Didn't miss your point at all, it just doesn't matter.

Absolutely it does. You're evaluating a potential trade in a vacuum, in the moment, when any trade involving draft picks is likely to be a 'better now' VS 'better later' type deal. If the $9.5M (minus the salary of the draft pick) is then used to sign a good free agent or helps facilitate a trade to acquire another good asset, then those subsequent moves would definitely have to be factored into the evaluation of the DeRozan trade. Even if the trade itself might make the team worse in the short-term, the subsequent moves could very well address the short-term gap, resulting in the trade becoming that much better when both short and long-term are considered.

[stooley]

Absolutely it does. You're evaluating a potential trade in a vacuum, in the moment, when any trade involving draft picks is likely to be a 'better now' VS 'better later' type deal. If the $9.5M (minus the salary of the draft pick) is then used to sign a good free agent or helps facilitate a trade to acquire another good asset, then those subsequent moves would definitely have to be factored into the evaluation of the DeRozan trade. Even if the trade itself might make the team worse in the short-term, the subsequent moves could very well address the short-term gap, resulting in the trade becoming that much better when both short and long-term are considered.

Most people on these boards have come around to thinking that DD's contract is actually pretty good though. If that is the case, then shedding said contract isn't really a positive. It's possible we homerun that 9.5 mill, but then shouldn't we have found that money somewhere else?

On another note: isn't DD's attitude worth something beyond his on-court numbers? Having a hard-working humble leader helps spread those values through the locker room, and I think that's really, really important. For a long time (like years and years) my biggest gripe with the Raptors was that we weren't a franchise conducive to helping guys reach their potential. I'm so happy that we can get young players and actually think, "hey, we've got a decent shot at helping these guys get better".

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Most people on these boards have come around to thinking that DD's contract is actually pretty good though. If that is the case, then shedding said contract isn't really a positive. It's possible we homerun that 9.5 mill, but then shouldn't we have found that money somewhere else?

On another note: isn't DD's attitude worth something beyond his on-court numbers? Having a hard-working humble leader helps spread those values through the locker room, and I think that's really, really important. For a long time (like years and years) my biggest gripe with the Raptors was that we weren't a franchise conducive to helping guys reach their potential. I'm so happy that we can get young players and actually think, "hey, we've got a decent shot at helping these guys get better".

The motivation behind such a trade isn't dumping his contract. The original message was that even if DeRozan were traded straight-up for a top-5 pick, it would likely take time for the prospect to acclimate, resulting in the Raptors being a worse team in the short-term. My point was that such a trade shouldn't be evaluated solely on the deal itself, but also by any subsequent signings/trades that occur as a direct result of the DeRozan trade (ie: using the cap space created to sign another player).

[stooley]

The motivation behind such a trade isn't dumping his contract. The original message was that even if DeRozan were traded straight-up for a top-5 pick, it would likely take time for the prospect to acclimate, resulting in the Raptors being a worse team in the short-term. My point was that such a trade shouldn't be evaluated solely on the deal itself, but also by any subsequent signings/trades that occur as a direct result of the DeRozan trade (ie: using the cap space created to sign another player).

Ah, I see. That makes sense.

[RYE]

Here's the thing: If you don't trade Demar you have a 100% chance of getting an all-star. HE IS AN ALLSTAR. Jebuz!

[mcHAPPY]

Here's the thing: If you don't trade Demar you have a 100% chance of getting an all-star. HE IS AN ALLSTAR. Jebuz!

Will he be a perennial all-star?

Or is he a one trick wonder like Magloire?

Would he have been an all star had Derrick Rose or Brook Lopez or Al Horford or Rajon Rondo been healthy?


This is hits at the heart of the thread, regardless of which side you fall on: selling high

[Joey]

Will he be a perennial all-star?

Or is he a one trick wonder like Magloire?

Would he have been an all star had Derrick Rose or Brook Lopez or Al Horford or Rajon Rondo been healthy?

This is hits at the heart of the thread, regardless of which side you fall on: selling high

Suppose one could call Antonio Davis a one trick wonder as well then...
Regardless, Demar is an All-Star now. Not sure why anyone would try and take that away from him, or apply an "asterisk" to his participating.

And the fact that Demar is able to stay healthy is just another valuable trait he possesses.
And to be honest, I don't see Rose, Lopez or Horford earning another All-Star bid again.

I fully expect Demar to be an All-Star again next year.

[imanshumpert]

That graph in my post is for ONE all star appearance mchappy so your point is sort of irrelevant. If we trade DeMar for a non top 5 lotto pick we have a 16% chance of getting a player that will EVER play in the all star game

[golden]

Most people on these boards have come around to thinking that DD's contract is actually pretty good though. If that is the case, then shedding said contract isn't really a positive. It's possible we homerun that 9.5 mill, but then shouldn't we have found that money somewhere else?

On another note: isn't DD's attitude worth something beyond his on-court numbers? Having a hard-working humble leader helps spread those values through the locker room, and I think that's really, really important. For a long time (like years and years) my biggest gripe with the Raptors was that we weren't a franchise conducive to helping guys reach their potential. I'm so happy that we can get young players and actually think, "hey, we've got a decent shot at helping these guys get better".

Nailed it.

Having suffered through so-called elite talents like Bosh and VC, who had serious limitations as leaders, you cannot underestimate the value of having guys like Lowry, Amir and DD as the current leaders of the team. That's where you get the San Antonio effect. Young guys coming in have no choice but to follow the example set by the leaders (hard work, tough-minded, unselfishness, .....) and this will maximize low 1st round and 2nd round picks into value assets for the Raps or as trade chips.

You look at Memphis. So much of that team's character is all about following the mindset and traits of Marc Gasol. Memphis has shown sustainable success, even without elite draft picks and they now have OKC on the ropes. Regardless of whether or not they take out OKC, Memphis can definitely compete with them, or any other team in the NBA as legitimate title contenders.

That said, as an aside, I could easily see the NBA making sure the Durant gets out of the 1st round.

[mcHAPPY]

Suppose one could call Antonio Davis a one trick wonder as well then...
Regardless, Demar is an All-Star now. Not sure why anyone would try and take that away from him, or apply an "asterisk" to his participating.

And the fact that Demar is able to stay healthy is just another valuable trait he possesses.
And to be honest, I don't see Rose, Lopez or Horford earning another All-Star bid again.

I fully expect Demar to be an All-Star again next year.

Don't go getting your back up too, Joey!

I value and respect your opinion.

However that is why the thread was started, no? Discussion of the idea of "selling high"?

Your "I don't see...." and "I fullly expect..." are opinions. Anyone questioning (as I did) or stating (as others have done) different are also giving opinions. We'll find out in time.


It will be interesting to see what happens this summer. I trust Ujiri's decisions at this time because he has not given any reason to not at this point. He doesn't bullshit. He doesn't take credit for everything and push blame on to others.

One thing for certain: if Lowry goes as an UFA you might as well prepare for the lottery again and consider trading guys not on rookie deals. DD is not the leader of this team.

[mcHAPPY]

Most people on these boards have come around to thinking that DD's contract is actually pretty good though. If that is the case, then shedding said contract isn't really a positive. It's possible we homerun that 9.5 mill, but then shouldn't we have found that money somewhere else?

On another note: isn't DD's attitude worth something beyond his on-court numbers? Having a hard-working humble leader helps spread those values through the locker room, and I think that's really, really important. For a long time (like years and years) my biggest gripe with the Raptors was that we weren't a franchise conducive to helping guys reach their potential. I'm so happy that we can get young players and actually think, "hey, we've got a decent shot at helping these guys get better".

DD is not the leader of the team. That belongs to Lowry.

But having hard workers around is never a bad thing.

[stooley]

DD is not the leader of the team. That belongs to Lowry.

But having hard workers around is never a bad thing.

He might not be THE leader, but he's certainly A leader.

He takes the most shots, scores the most points and plays the most (?, maybe) minutes.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

That graph in my post is for ONE all star appearance mchappy so your point is sort of irrelevant. If we trade DeMar for a non top 5 lotto pick we have a 16% chance of getting a player that will EVER play in the all star game

Why do you place such a high-value on all-star game appearances?

I personally find that come all-star time, too much emphasis is placed on basic stats (ie: PPG) and popularity.

The crux of the ongoing DeRozan debate has never been about his abilities, character, work ethic, etc... but rather about his style of game (ie: one-dimensional scorer, inefficient scorer, etc...). I think a lot of those questions still exist, regardless of how many all-star appearances he makes.

Even just looking at the 4 playoffs games thus far, DeRozan is shooting 36% from the field and 18% from 3pt range, while playing horrendous defense for the most part and contributing very little in the way of peripheral stats. Basically, his game has regressed to exactly what people have complained about for years, to the point where he's had stretches of being Rudy 'black hole' Gay bad. If not for the appearances at the charity stripe (for all the reffing conspiracy theorists out there, I've been happy with the number of 'bailout' calls DeRozan has been getting), his stat line would be absolutely dreadful.

The most frustrating part with DeRozan is that he has shown glimpses of awesomeness, whether it's more efficient scoring, improved 3pt shooting, defensive focus, team-oriented play with huge jump in assists, etc... This entire thread is a big 'what if' discussion, which ultimately revolves around a single question: will DeRozan ever be able to address all his weaknesses at once, in an ongoing, consistent basis? If the answer winds up being yes, then he's a keeper. If the answer winds up being no, then there might never be a better time to 'sell high'. There's no right or wrong answer, at least at this moment in time, since none of us can see the future.