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JV comparable big man production in the modern NBA

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  • #31
    mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    That line of thinking is heavilied flawed when one considers the enormous minutes DeRozan has logged since Casey's first day.

    I have a theory. Casey treats rooks and Sophia like shit. He doesn't treat players like vets until year 3. We'll see how that theory plays out this year with jv and Ross.
    Ugh.

    I'm not gonna lie; having four months off from watching Casey hack his way through rotations has been great.
    "Stop eating your sushi."
    "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
    "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
    - Jack Armstrong

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    • #32
      Axel wrote: View Post
      Yes much more logical. JV is going to lose minutes to a guy who didn't crack the NBA until age 26, and last year averaged (as a 28 yr old) 2.9 PPG and 4.1 RPG while largely being a bench player on the mighty Pelicans. At least the guy who's never played a game of NBA ball is a possible rotation player. Stiemsma is a non-factor (even if he makes the roster).
      Everybody in the NBA can play. It's all about the right situation. Who would of thought that Alan Anderson would be a legit NBA rotation player?


      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
      @Chr1st1anL

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      • #33
        mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
        Casey treats rooks and Sophia like shit.
        I've always wondered why Casey has it out for Sophia...comes across as petty.
        http://twitter.com/m_shantz

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        • #34
          Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
          Everybody in the NBA can play. It's all about the right situation. Who would of thought that Alan Anderson would be a legit NBA rotation player?


          Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
          But not everyone can play well; hence the average career is 3 years long. Just being in the NBA doesn't mean you're good enough to stick, let alone steal minutes from a player that is both younger and better than you.

          Alan Anderson's biggest problem with the Raps was his shot selection. No surprise whatsoever to see him be more successful on a veteran laden team than with a bunch of young players finding their way.
          Heir, Prince of Cambridge

          If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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          • #35
            Hey Axel...i haven't mentioned this yet, but great thread. Engaging opening post, great topic, and well thought out. It has generated tons of good discussion.
            Last edited by Puffer; Thu Sep 18, 2014, 07:41 AM.

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            • #36
              Also, as much flack as JV received last season (myself included) for being "fat"...seeing him this summer has made me realize that a big Jonas will be a much better option than skinny, quick Jonas. As long as JV can maintain a respectable level of mobility to hedge a little better (and subsequently recover) than he did last season, but at the same time be able to push around Boogie Cousins...damn that is going to be intimidating for any team. Defensively and offensively. I can't wait to see him in NBA action.

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              • #37
                OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                Also, as much flack as JV received last season (myself included) for being "fat"...seeing him this summer has made me realize that a big Jonas will be a much better option than skinny, quick Jonas. As long as JV can maintain a respectable level of mobility to hedge a little better (and subsequently recover) than he did last season, but at the same time be able to push around Boogie Cousins...damn that is going to be intimidating for any team. Defensively and offensively. I can't wait to see him in NBA action.
                He just gained it too fast...which is actually probably harder to deal with when you're young. His body hadn't even finished adjusting to his natural growth, and he went and clearly focused way too much on gaining weight (he was definitely "fat" in terms of not being cut, but most of it was still muscle). The one positive is that now he basically never has to focus on getting bigger again. Basically gained in one summer what he could've spread over two.

                And yeah, we don't want him "skinny". I always saw his potential as being that guy with a good mix. And he likes to play physical too, so he'll need the weight. Now he just needs to keep doing what he did this summer, or improve upon it, as whatever he's done has clearly at least slightly helped with him regaining some speed. He's already big enough that few guys can push him around.

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                • #38
                  DanH wrote: View Post
                  DRTG is heavily influenced by team numbers. DRAPM is more isolated from it.
                  Some blogger does an exhaustive (and I mean EXHAUSTIVE) six-part breakdown on RAPM, and it's a mixed bag. It seems to be a little better than the original adjusted plus-minus, which might not be saying much. I won't even pretend to understand the details of the math (even being an engineering grad myself), but here are a few selected (or cherry-picked) points from the summary:

                  RAPM (Regularized regression) (RAPM) does a better job of recovering true beta weights and predicting new data than standard regression, particularly in the face of strong collinearity. However, due to the bias in the estimates, the error on any particular observation was larger for RAPM (regularized regression).
                  However, because the estimates are biased and standard regression does a better job of describing already-known events, RAPM may not be best for explaining what has already happened. RAPM may not be what you want to base an MVP vote on, for example, or you would at least want to weigh it less than you would compared to a decision about who would be MVP next year, or playoff MVP. RAPM really benefits when looking forward, and not as much necessarily looking backward.
                  https://sportskeptic.wordpress.com/2...m-conclusions/

                  https://sportskeptic.wordpress.com/tag/regression/
                  Last edited by golden; Wed Sep 17, 2014, 11:42 PM.

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                  • #39
                    Axel wrote: View Post
                    Remember that the initial screening criteria was only for a players second season. So none of this is to say that JV is better than Marc Gasol defensively, but rather that in their sophomore season, JV held his own and shouldn't be written off defensively. Better defenders had worse stats than him, so no need to throw him to the flames for his D.

                    I didn't look into Bosh or other power forwards except to see how many 20-10 players there were last season and if any qualified for the initial screening.

                    Bosh prime seasons here were quite wasted thanks to error of the past (Bargnani, Turk, JO, etc). To say that a 20-10 player is of no value towards succeeding in the playoffs is simply stupid. A reliable scorer who rebounds, regardless of the position, is of great value to a team. And quite frankly, what relevance does past team success have to do with JV? Seems like you are misunderstanding the facts (2nd season comparables isn't the same thing as saying one is better than another) and twisting them due to your jaded view of anything positive to do with JV.

                    The whole point of this exercise was to offer a renewed perspective on what a successful Center is in today's NBA. 16-10 is quite elite for the position and JV seems to be well on his way to cracking that territory in the next 1-3 seasons.
                    Look how Jefferson contributed to Charlotte last season.

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                    • #40
                      Puffer wrote: View Post
                      Hey Axel...i haven't mentioned this yet, but great thread. Engaging opening post, great topic, and well thought out. It has generated tons of good discussion, except for the posts from Chr1s1anL, which I think don't make the cut for the level of thought others have put into the thread. Not to disrespect Chr1s1anL, but a lot of what has been posted here under his name seems to have been just thrown out there, unlike most of the other posts.
                      I agree with these sentiments.

                      Some of my thoughts on DeRozan still stand but the overwhelming majority turned out to be WRONG. However when I was framing my arguments, I'd like to think, at the very, very least, that I was using sound reasoning. Obviously my biases came shining through at times but the overall foundation of the argument was at least reasoned and I always said I hoped to be wrong because as a Raptor fan that would be good for me and the team.

                      I don't get that from Chr1st1anL posts. There is rarely any justification given other than opinion which, quite frankly, doesn't hold up to the reality of the 22 year old, just entering 3rd year situation.

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                      • #41
                        Since I was up several times in the middle of the night with my daughter (baby with a cold is no fun), I started thinking about how of the original 17 that passed the criteria, JV was well below the average in minutes played (only Oden had fewer) and how his per36 stats actually matched up with Horford and Bogut's 3rd season. So I ran the per36 numbers with the criteria being 14 PP36 and 11 RP36 (JV had 14.5 Points36 and 11.3 Reb36). The list is much shorter than I even expected.

                        Oden, Drummond, Monroe, Cousins, Leon Smith (1 game played), Ian Mahinmi (26 games at 6.3 minutes per), Boozer, Howard, Courtney Sims (2 games played) and, of course, Jonas Valanciunas. So one of 7 players (dropping those who didn't play enough to register as a legit sample size), or 1 of 10 with zero restrictions on playing time.

                        Very surprised that more prolific players from the original 17 didn't make the list, specifically no Anthony Davis, no Yao, no Gasol's, no Bosh (his rebounding fell short at just 8.5 per 36). So just another way to spin the numbers and see how JV is really in small company at this early stage of his career.
                        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                        • #42
                          Axel wrote: View Post
                          Since I was up several times in the middle of the night with my daughter (baby with a cold is no fun), I started thinking about how of the original 17 that passed the criteria, JV was well below the average in minutes played (only Oden had fewer) and how his per36 stats actually matched up with Horford and Bogut's 3rd season. So I ran the per36 numbers with the criteria being 14 PP36 and 11 RP36 (JV had 14.5 Points36 and 11.3 Reb36). The list is much shorter than I even expected.

                          Oden, Drummond, Monroe, Cousins, Leon Smith (1 game played), Ian Mahinmi (26 games at 6.3 minutes per), Boozer, Howard, Courtney Sims (2 games played) and, of course, Jonas Valanciunas. So one of 7 players (dropping those who didn't play enough to register as a legit sample size), or 1 of 10 with zero restrictions on playing time.

                          Very surprised that more prolific players from the original 17 didn't make the list, specifically no Anthony Davis, no Yao, no Gasol's, no Bosh (his rebounding fell short at just 8.5 per 36). So just another way to spin the numbers and see how JV is really in small company at this early stage of his career.
                          I hear you on the baby with a cold.

                          ....but at least you get to do something productive!

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                          • #43
                            golden wrote: View Post
                            Some blogger does an exhaustive (and I mean EXHAUSTIVE) six-part breakdown on RAPM, and it's a mixed bag. It seems to be a little better than the original adjusted plus-minus, which might not be saying much. I won't even pretend to understand the details of the math (even being an engineering grad myself), but here are a few selected (or cherry-picked) points from the summary:




                            https://sportskeptic.wordpress.com/2...m-conclusions/

                            https://sportskeptic.wordpress.com/tag/regression/
                            This is a great point as well. Using two-year APM instead, as a descriptor of past events (over the players' first two seasons in the league):

                            Horford 2008/09 +1.1 DAPM
                            Bogut 2006/07 +5.3 DAPM
                            Okafor 2005/06 +1.6 DAPM
                            Jonas 2013/14 +0.4 DAPM

                            A little closer to Horford and Okafor, which is great. Bogut's on another level in terms of immediate impact.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • #44
                              DanH wrote: View Post
                              This is a great point as well. Using two-year APM instead, as a descriptor of past events (over the players' first two seasons in the league):

                              Horford 2008/09 +1.1 DAPM
                              Bogut 2006/07 +5.3 DAPM
                              Okafor 2005/06 +1.6 DAPM
                              Jonas 2013/14 +0.4 DAPM

                              A little closer to Horford and Okafor, which is great. Bogut's on another level in terms of immediate impact.
                              It's also worth noting, that while DRtg isn't perfect either, the fact that JV's individual DRtg was actually better than the team's overall DRtg indicates that JV isn't exactly dragging down the team. No single stat can capture Defence that well, which is why it was left out of the original research.
                              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                              • #45
                                We should also keep in mind that Jonas is ESL.

                                Not sure exactly how much this would factor into his learning curve, but it certainly can't help.
                                "Stop eating your sushi."
                                "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                                "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                                - Jack Armstrong

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