From my blog NBA-25-15.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Johnson's Shots Taken Per 36 Minutes, J. Jack's Return To the Second Unit and Their Impact On Johnson's Foul Rate
The purpose of this analysis is to answer three questions I have relating to Johnson's FGA, FG% and fouls committed.
1. Do the number of shots that he takes per 36 minutes correlate to his fouls per 36 minutes?
2. Has the return of Jack to the second unit positively or negatively impacted both Johnson's shot's taken per 36 minutes and his fouls per 36 minutes.
3. When Johnson takes more field goal attempts per 36 minutes does he have a higher or lower field goal percentage?
This analysis is through the Raptors first 73 games of the 2009-10 season, of which Johnson has played in all of them. For purposes of this analysis I excluded all games in which Johnson played less than 10 minutes of which there were 6. That left a universe of 67 games from which I culled the numbers.
Summary of Analysis
I used .25 shots per minute or 9 shots per 36 minutes as the summary demarcation point. Among the universe of 67 games there were 25 games in which Johnson took 9 or more shots per 36 minutes and 42 in which he took less than 9 shots per 36 minutes. The results show the following
9 or mores shots taken per 36 minutes: Fouls per 36 minutes = 5.76 and FG% = 61.5%
Less than 9 shots taken per 36 minutes: Fouls per 36 minues = 7.19 and FG% = 54.3%
So the results clearly show that not only does Johnson incur fouls at a rate of 20% less but also has a FG% of 13% higher when he shoots 9 or more times per 36 minutes.
Also since Jack has returned to the second unit Johnson is averaging only 8 shots per 36 minutes and 9 fouls per 36 minutes. Clearly the return of Jack to second unit has brought joy into the life of Johnson bashers.
Conclusion: Would the Raptors benefit by feeding the big cat more? The numbers seem to indicate that.
Summary numbers and link to detail numbers on blog