The curious case of James Johnson

[S.R.]

Yeah but instea we play Lou Lowry and Vasquez at the same time.

It seems to be a pure coaching deficiency.

On top of all of the lazy awful play, I think that line-up was my biggest peeve in this series.

In related news: Washington averaged 110.25 ppg this series after averaging 98.5 through the regular season. So much for offense tailing off in the playoffs.

110.25 ppg would have made them the #1 offense in the league during the regular season. The Raps literally made the Wizards look like Golden State (110 ppg).

But we had spacing!!!

[WJF]

With The raptors in need of power forward depth, is there any chance James Johnson embraces that position full-time and becomes the regular back up? If small ball is the way of the future does he not fit well. Very mobile and can switch on defense, able to handle the ball, and when playing on the floor with Patterson will not be relied upon to spread the floor. His face up and post game would be able to be utilized more when miss matches ensue.

Thoughts?

[DanH]

If he's on the floor with Patterson, wouldn't Patterson be the PF?

[WJF]

If he's on the floor with Patterson, wouldn't Patterson be the PF?

I was thinking small ball with Patterson, Johnson, and 3 guards.

[Nilanka]

With reports of the Raptors pursuing Aminu, looks like management doesn't think Johnson is capable of filling the role alone.

[JimiCliff]

With reports of the Raptors pursuing Aminu, looks like management doesn't think Johnson is capable of filling the role alone.

Or, they know he's going to be moved.

[DanH]

I was thinking small ball with Patterson, Johnson, and 3 guards.

Is that you, Dwane?

[GarbageTime]

James Johnson's reg. season O/D/N rtgs vs Team via NBA.com

108.9 vs 108.1
101.9 vs 104.8
7.0 vs 3.2

Depending on one's feeling on the relevance of Hansbrough role/minutes, JJ had the best Drtg, and Nrtg on the team as well as the 3rd best Ortg. So at first glance it seems like a no brainer playing him. However, that came on an average of less than 20 min a game, and off the bench.

His games starting vs bench (note: only 17 games as a starter, so a grain of salt may apply)

26.8 min vs 17.2 min
104.8 vs 110.9
101.2 vs 102.2
3.6 vs 8.8

So we see a pretty significant drop in his rtgs (O and N particular) as a starter. Not entirely surprising as 1) Toronto's bench was pretty impressive, one of the best in the league. And as the saying goes a rising tide lifts all boats 2) One would expect greater success (and therefore greater #s) vs weaker opposition, and a bench tends to have weaker opposition.

That said, he was obviously pretty damn good within his role (+5.6 vs the team)... and adequate as a starter (+0.4 vs team)

However, as it applies to playoffs... starters (or a team's 'best' players) tend to see more minutes, bench sees less. So right off the bat we'd expect we wouldn't see as much "bench Johnson". Secondly, the Raptor's starters would see more minutes as well and Johnson does have a pretty significant impact, at the very least, on one player in particular.

Demar Derozan w/JJ vs w/out (+ DD season #s) via NBAwowy

eFG%
36.8 vs 43.9 (42.5)

TS%
47.1 vs 50.7 (50.0)

PPP
0.96 vs 1.03 (1.02)

netPPP
+0.002 vs +0.019

So we see a huge drop in Demar's offensive #s with JJ out there, offset slightly by a defensive improvement but still resulting in a total net loss (nPPP). (and while JJ was actually more efficient w/Demar (his scoring #s went up with Demar) it wasn't enough to offset the drop in Demar's #)

Now this doesn't mean JJ shouldn't have seen more minutes. Perfectly fair to believe he should of... but they should have arguably:

- come more from the bench (or vs the opposition bench where possible)

and/or

- not with Demar on the floor (or at least less often)

To apply this to the playoffs... there weren't a lot of spare minutes, particularily without Demar on the floor, to go around. Now I think it could be fairly argued that JJ could have eaten into Demar's minutes, especially considering how poorly Demar shot outside that 5 or so minute stretch in the 1st quarter of game 3.

But that means sitting Demar (ie. taking some of Demar's minutes) in exchange for JJ... and I imagine the optics behind that would cause a shit show.

(edit: just to add to the conclusion. nPPP Ross w/JJ (+0.025) > DD w/out JJ (+0.019) > DD w/JJ (0.002) however only based on 341 minutes so again, grain of salt)

[WJF]

Is that you, Dwane?

Nope, just knowing Casey is still in charge we will see some lineups like that. I think JJ fits well into that type of set up.

[ceez]

With reports of the Raptors pursuing Aminu, looks like management realizes paying JJ is pointless with Casey in charge

fixed