Early Projection of 2015-16 Season

[DanH]

Denver will finish even lower than the Knicks. They are tanking

Interesting theory. Doesn't matter to me so long as they both finish poorly!

[MACK11]

Well, a very slight one. One thing to keep in mind is that RPM has a slight substitution bias - so if a player is usually subbed for a very good defensive player, their DRPM will be suppressed. I think this is happening here a bit, as Thabo came off the bench for ATL a lot and he's a tremendous (+3) defender. In any case, his upgrade over Ross last year (-0.25 vs -3.77) is massive.

So could the opposite be true? If a player gets subbed in for a bad defender the DRPM can be inflated? Making there impact seem better than it really is?

[DanH]

So could the opposite be true? If a player gets subbed in for a bad defender the DRPM can be inflated? Making there impact seem better than it really is?

Yep! For example JJ is probably not quite as good as his DRPM suggests, and Ross is probably not quite as bad as his suggests. Both are probably a little closer to the mean.

But this is a small effect, neither of these guys are average defenders or anything.

[JimiCliff]

Jonas' o-impact score is surprisingly terrible

[Bonus Jonas]

No, actually, in spite of my not liking his fit there at all.

Has more to do with them trading for MCW - he has been just awful impact wise, and their play fell off a cliff after that trade.

Also it has a lot to do with not having Knight. Losing him meant their only offensive weapon was Middleton and Giannis.


And I'm not too worried about the Nuggets being bad, they're tanking. We'll probably end up with the Knicks pick which'll make it even sweeter.

[DanH]

Also it has a lot to do with not having Knight. Losing him meant their only offensive weapon was Middleton and Giannis.


And I'm not too worried about the Nuggets being bad, they're tanking. We'll probably end up with the Knicks pick which'll make it even sweeter.

Yeah, sorry, that's what I meant - swapping out Knight for MCW was a huge downgrade.

[Bonus Jonas]

Yeah, sorry, that's what I meant - swapping out Knight for MCW was a huge downgrade.

I agree. I guess Kidd didn't wanna pay both Knight and Middleton

[S.R.]

Dan you mentioned wanting to keep your bias out of it - what do you actually think? Will the Raps step up or step back this year?

[DanH]

Dan you mentioned wanting to keep your bias out of it - what do you actually think? Will the Raps step up or step back this year?

Up. I think DeMar will be more efficient (he had a down year even for him in that category). I think JV will have a bigger role. I think the defence will be better and the offence won't drop off too much. That said, they probably still slot in at 3rd spot (I think CHI falls off big time without Thibs), unless ATL really struggles with Carroll's absence. More importantly, this team seems less likely to be scouted to death like last year's - much less one note and fewer glaring holes (hopefully) in the personnel and schemes.

[BS10]

Again I like the optimism but that Mudiay guy on Denver is looking pretty good in the summer league

[raptors999]

Again I like the optimism but that Mudiay guy on Denver is looking pretty good in the summer league

Which is great for tanking, they will rebuild around him and Nurkic and try to get a 4 in the draft. Means a sub 20 win team especially in the West. Developing a PG and C at the same time is tough

[3inthekeon]

Well, a very slight one. One thing to keep in mind is that RPM has a slight substitution bias - so if a player is usually subbed for a very good defensive player, their DRPM will be suppressed. I think this is happening here a bit, as Thabo came off the bench for ATL a lot and he's a tremendous (+3) defender. In any case, his upgrade over Ross last year (-0.25 vs -3.77) is massive.

FWIW, the year before last, when Thabo was still with OKC, Demarre was top 10 DRPM SF +1.92.

[007]

Another Top 4 finish is what we should be aiming for. Interesting that in your predictions we would play Washington in the first round again.

Houston falling to 8th would be surprising.

[raptors999]

Another Top 4 finish is what we should be aiming for. Interesting that in your predictions we would play Washington in the first round again.

Houston falling to 8th would be surprising.

IMHO Raptors will really struggle to be over .500 the D will be better but somewhere between 11-20 and the bench will have trouble scoring. Lots of blown leads as the scoring dries up. After the Gay trade the D was top 7 or higher but it fell a lot end of season and into the playoffs.

[OldSkoolCool]

Jonas' o-impact score is surprisingly terrible

Not surprising to me based on how little he was used in the offense

Hard for him to impact the stat sheet when he touches the ball less often than his replacement player