The Biyombo Effect

[Barolt]

Because last year Ross/Patterson/JV played together and it was absolutely horrific. So much so that people thought Patterson was a bad pairing with JV because their net rating together was awful - but remove the JV/PP/TR minutes and the pair were quite solid.

ETA: Oh, and where are you getting fantastic net ratings? On the year PP/TR are a +3. That's definitely not fantastic, it's acceptable, I guess.

You know what? This was me being up at midnight to let the dogs outside and writing without checking my stats. You're right.

The only 2 man pairing for Ross with rebounding numbers as bad as Ross-Patterson is Ross-Johnson. Which makes perfect sense, because chances are those minutes are with Ross at the 3 and Johnson at the 4.

So Patterson has great numbers with JV, and Ross has great numbers with JV, but you can't run Ross-Patterson-JV. Of course, right now, neither Ross or Patterson is really playing with JV much.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

You know what? This was me being up at midnight to let the dogs outside and writing without checking my stats. You're right.

The only 2 man pairing for Ross with rebounding numbers as bad as Ross-Patterson is Ross-Johnson. Which makes perfect sense, because chances are those minutes are with Ross at the 3 and Johnson at the 4.

So Patterson has great numbers with JV, and Ross has great numbers with JV, but you can't run Ross-Patterson-JV. Of course, right now, neither Ross or Patterson is really playing with JV much.

It makes sense that the team's two weak-rebounding 3pt threats should be split up. It's all about balance (inside and out, plus on the glass) for both the starting and backup units.

The head coach disagrees, so I suppose it doesn't make sense after all, otherwise...

[Axel]

The head coach disagrees, so I suppose it doesn't make sense after all, otherwise...

He probably isn't aware of.....THE BIYOMBO EFFECT

(Cue dramatic music we all know and fear)

[Wild-ling#1]

He probably isn't aware of.....THE BIYOMBO EFFECT

(Cue dramatic music we all know and fear)

I'm a Valenciunas fan. And while his injury put a stop to any hope he might get an All Star nod, I assume, I still vote for him daily. But the view that he is simply a "stud" and Biyombo is (just as simply) a "dud" isn't universally held. Joshua Priemski's piece on January 5th made the following observations, as regards why one might have concerns about the raptors "D":
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/...e-for-offense/

Only one player in the Raptors’ regular rotation has a worse defensive rating than Carroll over the Raptors’ last 10 games, and that’s Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas has never been a great defender by any stretch of the imagination. He’s big, sure, so he’s often able to feint good defense, especially in one-on-one situations. But he rotates poorly, gambles from time to time, and sometimes doesn’t even appear to try. As the Raptors’ last line of defense at the rim, if he fails, the team fails.

And unfortunately, he fails a lot. Since returning from injury, opponents within six feet of the rim shoot 61.5 percent from the field when Valanciunas is guarding them. And when he’s matched up against stretch bigs, he doesn’t fare much better. On the season, opponents shoot 44 percent from behind the 3-point line when Valanciunas is guarding them, well above their collective average of 36.7 percent. No matter how you look at it, Valanciunas’ defensive shortcomings are a major reason the Raptors’ defense has struggled.

... The Raptors have the personnel to be an excellent defensive team. They’re athletic, long, versatile, and smart. But they’re not an excellent defensive team.

I’m not prepared to put the blame on Dwane Casey, even though his defensive schemes are a big part of why the Raptors’ defense works this way. That’s because his schemes haven’t stopped Lowry and Carroll from playing their scrappy style of defense. No, the Raptors’ defensive woes are the product of poor individual effort and a lack of communication. And with Biyombo losing minutes to a healthy Valanciunas, that’s a huge concern. Biyombo’s a great defender, but more importantly, he’s an outstanding communicator on defense.

....This puts the Raptors in a bit of a pickle. Valanciunas is too good not to play heavy minutes, but Biyombo’s defense is so, so valuable to a team that struggles to put forth consistent effort on that side of the floor.

The numbers you posted, as I said at the time, exhibited a valuable commitment to painstaking research. But I still think it's hard to tell a complete story with stats. The broadcasters and pundits don't opine on Biyombo's contributions as if they need a background of scary music (though I know some dismiss the TV guys comments as shillery, and pundits as "know-nothings", compared to RR members). Nevertheless, some do think Casey's continuing relaince on him is not (at lest entirely) mis-placed. And the "good communicator" aspect of his play was a tag he came here with, and which rings very true to me.

[Barolt]

Wild-ling, here's an interesting stat I'd like you to explain. Only two players on our team had a negative net rating last night, Biz and Ross. Those are the only two players who didn't share at least 10 minutes of floor time with Jonas.(Ross had 2 minutes with JV, Biz had 0)

[Axel]

I'm a Valenciunas fan. And while his injury put a stop to any hope he might get an All Star nod, I assume, I still vote for him daily. But the view that he is simply a "stud" and Biyombo is (just as simply) a "dud" isn't universally held. Joshua Priemski's piece on January 5th made the following observations, as regards why one might have concerns about the raptors "D":
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2016/...e-for-offense/


The numbers you posted, as I said at the time, exhibited a valuable commitment to painstaking research. But I still think it's hard to tell a complete story with stats. The broadcasters and pundits don't opine on Biyombo's contributions as if they need a background of scary music (though I know some dismiss the TV guys comments as shillery, and pundits as "know-nothings, compared to RR members). Nevertheless, some do think Casey's continuing relaince on him is not (at lest entirely) mis-placed. And the "good communicator" aspect of his play was a tag he came here with, and which rings very true to me.

3 quick response thoughts

1. I remember reading that piece and felt it was lacking much. It assigns too much blame on the C position, when the defensive failings are far beyond the impacts of 1 player. Far too simplistic an approach employed by the author.
2. Your portrayal that people are making JV a stud and Biyombo a dud isn't really accurate or fair. I don't think I've seen anyone say Biyombo is a dud, but universally at minimum that he is a valuable contributor best suited for a specific role (back-up).
3. Sometimes a post is simply supposed to be fun.

[Wild-ling#1]

3 quick response thoughts

1. I remember reading that piece and felt it was lacking much. It assigns too much blame on the C position, when the defensive failings are far beyond the impacts of 1 player. Far too simplistic an approach employed by the author.
2. Your portrayal that people are making JV a stud and Biyombo a dud isn't really accurate or fair. I don't think I've seen anyone say Biyombo is a dud, but universally at minimum that he is a valuable contributor best suited for a specific role (back-up).
3. Sometimes a post is simply supposed to be fun.

I thought my quotations from Priemski's piece were long enough that I oughtn't to add bits that critiqued other players, in discussing the Raps defensive issues (Carroll, Derozan and others were also singled out).

I also whole-heartedly agree with you that JV was given a little too rough a ride in the piece - he's not the only issue. And the quotations I gave are the more unflattering bits.

Still, I find the phrase "The Biyombo Effect" so catchy that I worry that it might become something of a trope here. And while (as I've now repeatedly remarked- though I mind not at all) I appreciate your post on Biyombo, I would echo the remarks of a poster (Mess, was it?) when he said that broadcasters and pundits often offer easy, confident praise for a player ... where such praise would be met with stiff opposition on comment boards and in forums.

I think that's clearly true with Biyombo. And find him such an admirable guy that I'm inclined to support him (where I think I can, reasonably).

[3inthekeon]

Wild-ling, here's an interesting stat I'd like you to explain. Only two players on our team had a negative net rating last night, Biz and Ross. Those are the only two players who didn't share at least 10 minutes of floor time with Jonas.(Ross had 2 minutes with JV, Biz had 0)

How meaningful are single game stats?

[DanH]

How meaningful are single game stats?

Not very. Would you like to see the season-long numbers?

[Barolt]

How meaningful are single game stats?

They definitely aren't terribly useful.

For Ross, he's played 78 minutes so far this season with Jonas, and has a 113.3 Ortg and 10.3 Net rating in those minutes.

He's played 400 minutes with Biz, has a 96.2 Ortg and -2.5 Net rating in those minutes.

[3inthekeon]

Not very. Would you like to see the season-long numbers?

It was a rhetorical question. Do you mean " 2015-16 REGULAR SEASON ADVANCED STATS" on the NBA site?

[DanH]

Net ratings, by player, for the entire season:
Player | With JV | With Biyombo
Lowry: +4.9 | +3.4
DeRozan: +7.7 | -2.8
Scola: +5.1 | -2.9
Carroll: +3.5 | -6.3
Patterson: +24.9 | -0.8
Ross: +10.3 | -2.5
Joseph: +21.8 | -3.1
Johnson: +13.1 | -0.4

All these pairings have at least 75 minutes played together. Other player pairings were excluded (Powell, Bennett, etc).

[Wild-ling#1]

Not very. Would you like to see the season-long numbers?

OK, I'll bite.

... But only because I have some trust that you do what you do in good faith. Which is to say that I think you're smart enough - and honourable enough - not to pull me into a pointless, flaming stat-war (for which I am frankly unprepared) by quoting some numbers that are utterly unbalanced, entirely out-of-context and only arguably or marginally relevant in any case.

(There was a compliment buried in there somewhere - see you at the RR Poster Awards, dude - we're all goin' apparently .. )

[Wild-ling#1]

Net ratings, by player, for the entire season:
Player | With JV | With Biyombo
Lowry: +4.9 | +3.4
DeRozan: +7.7 | -2.8
Scola: +5.1 | -2.9
Carroll: +3.5 | -6.3
Patterson: +24.9 | -0.8
Ross: +10.3 | -2.5
Joseph: +21.8 | -3.1
Johnson: +13.1 | -0.4

All these pairings have at least 75 minutes played together. Other player pairings were excluded (Powell, Bennett, etc).

Ok. Looks pretty bad. I could think of some potential qualifications ... but how's about you say a few words about how meaningful these numbers are ... or "might be", if you're feeling modest.

[Barolt]

Ok. Looks pretty bad. I could think of some potential qualifications ... but how's about you say a few words about how meaningful these numbers are ... or "might be", if you're feeling modest.

A big note for me here is that the guys who show the biggest difference are our catch and shoot guys(and JJ for some reason). Ross, Joseph and Patterson are all guys who score a significant number of points in catch and shoot scenarios, and Biz being on the floor allows the players defending them to cheat less, creating less of these shots.