The 2016 Offseason thread

[3inthekeon]

I like the Boxscoregeeks guys generally but whenever I see something like this, "In short, almost no teams in the NBA seems to know what they're doing," that's Dave Berri syndrome creeping in. Perhaps it's less that everyone in the industry is an idiot and more that the analyst doesn't fully understand the market he is analyzing....

Kevin Pelton isn't a DeRozan fan, but does understand the market.

The Raptors couldn't extract the same kind of discount on DeRozan that the Hornets got with Batum, though they did end up a little shy of his max. This is a similar amount to what DeRozan would make on a five-year maximum deal with the 4.5 percent raises other teams can offer rather than the 7.5 percent Toronto could offer using Bird rights.

While I'm not the world's biggest DeRozan fan, I still think having him back is preferable to the alternative of creating modest cap space that might not even pay for a starter in this year's market.

While I was skeptical of DeRozan's All-Star candidacy, his ability to create shots is valuable so long as he can make them with average efficiency as he did during the regular season (.550 true shooting percentage).

Using WARP, DeRozan is likely to remain a 4-5 win player for the next three to four seasons, which puts his value in the neighborhood of his max salary.

[DanH]

New prediction. We sign Dedmon for the MLE. We re-sign JJ with his early Bird Rights (2 years, 7M per, 2nd year unguaranteed). We let Poeltl fill in some PF minutes, with Carroll, and JJ able to fill in if needed. BAE to DeAndre Daniels as more F depth (2nd year unguaranteed).

Underwhelming off-season, but perhaps the smartest move with the salaries getting tossed around. And still an upgrade from last season with Patterson starting and expected improvement from JV, while Dedmon brings most of what Biz did. Also stocks up on trade pieces for the coming deadline and draft, with Ross (value deal), JJ (essentially expiring), Daniels (essentially expiring and prospect), BeBe (prospect), Wright (prospect), Bruno (prospect), Siakam (prospect) and the two 2017 first rounders as trade bait without touching the core and barely touching the rotation.

[planetmars]

Is Ariza available? Would love a crack at him since everything else has been a disaster this summer.

Would Ross/Bebe/2nd rounder work in a Ariza/Jones package (with Jones coming in as a part of a S&T)? Jones can then make a bit more than the MLE with a trade like that.

Brandon Jennings on twitter trying to get Ariza to NY which is weird since he's not a free agent.

[3inthekeon]

New prediction. We sign Dedmon for the MLE. We re-sign JJ with his early Bird Rights (2 years, 7M per, 2nd year unguaranteed). We let Poeltl fill in some PF minutes, with Carroll, and JJ able to fill in if needed. BAE to DeAndre Daniels as more F depth (2nd year unguaranteed).

Underwhelming off-season, but perhaps the smartest move with the salaries getting tossed around. And still an upgrade from last season with Patterson starting and expected improvement from JV, while Dedmon brings most of what Biz did. Also stocks up on trade pieces for the coming deadline and draft, with Ross (value deal), JJ (essentially expiring), Daniels (essentially expiring and prospect), BeBe (prospect), Wright (prospect), Bruno (prospect), Siakam (prospect) and the two 2017 first rounders as trade bait without touching the core and barely touching the rotation.

Good stuff. Sometimes unsexy moves are the smartest moves.

[DanH]

Is Ariza available? Would love a crack at him since everything else has been a disaster this summer.

Would Ross/Bebe/2nd rounder work in a Ariza/Jones package (with Jones coming in as a part of a S&T)? Jones can then make a bit more than the MLE with a trade like that.

Brandon Jennings on twitter trying to get Ariza to NY which is weird since he's not a free agent.

If we send out Ross/BeBe, we can bring back 16.9M. Meaning we can offer Jones 8M per year or so.

I imagine HOU would ask for a lot more though. Probably a 2017 1st and another prospect. I think Ariza is pretty valuable on that contract. I don't even think they will move him.

[TrueTorontoFan]

If we send out Ross/BeBe, we can bring back 16.9M. Meaning we can offer Jones 8M per year or so.

I imagine HOU would ask for a lot more though. Probably a 2017 1st and another prospect. I think Ariza is pretty valuable on that contract. I don't even think they will move him.

i don't think ariza fits on this team since we have carroll so doesn't really help us.. .

[DanH]

i don't think ariza fits on this team since we have carroll so doesn't really help us.. .

Certainly I think that if Ariza is a target, Jones would not be. As you'd run Ariza as the backup SF/PF (with Carroll taking some PF minutes too).

[Superjudge]

Yeah, and I can still understand why the fans are upset. However, unlike the afore mentioned, KD: (1) Finished his contract (2) Never sat on the floor in protest and watched his team play (3) Did not openly give plays away to other teams (4) Did not force a bumbling manager to trade a young budding star for mid season scraps that set the franchise back over a decade. Now that guy was scum!

Good lord ger over it

[planetmars]

i don't think ariza fits on this team since we have carroll so doesn't really help us.. .

Ariza played PF for Houston around 41% of the time last year (1170 minutes vs 1646 as SF).

[TrueTorontoFan]

Ariza played PF for Houston around 41% of the time last year (1170 minutes vs 1646 as SF).

How was he at pf... like i'd prefer to get Amir Johnson for a one year deal if he gets cut if that's the case.

[planetmars]

How was he at pf... like i'd prefer to get Amir Johnson for a one year deal if he gets cut if that's the case.

He just was.. and remember last year how Masai was going after Wes Matthews despite locking up Carroll? Masai/Casey probably believe in small ball. Can use Ariza or Carroll at 3/4 and it's probably interchangeable.

As for Amir.. he's staying with the Celtics. If they got KD he'd be waived. Since they didn't he'll most likely come back for his final year.

[SkywalkerAC]

New prediction. We sign Dedmon for the MLE. We re-sign JJ with his early Bird Rights (2 years, 7M per, 2nd year unguaranteed). We let Poeltl fill in some PF minutes, with Carroll, and JJ able to fill in if needed. BAE to DeAndre Daniels as more F depth (2nd year unguaranteed).

Underwhelming off-season, but perhaps the smartest move with the salaries getting tossed around. And still an upgrade from last season with Patterson starting and expected improvement from JV, while Dedmon brings most of what Biz did. Also stocks up on trade pieces for the coming deadline and draft, with Ross (value deal), JJ (essentially expiring), Daniels (essentially expiring and prospect), BeBe (prospect), Wright (prospect), Bruno (prospect), Siakam (prospect) and the two 2017 first rounders as trade bait without touching the core and barely touching the rotation.

Pretty much what I'm thinking, and I like it.

[Jclaw]

Durant may have stayed west but look who's back in the east (Atlantic, no less)...

Free agent Gerald Henderson has agreed to a two-year, $18M deal with the 76ers, league source tells @TheVertical.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojVerticalNBA) 5 July 2016

[Miekenstien]

Durant may have stayed west but look who's back in the east (Atlantic, no less)...

Free agent Gerald Henderson has agreed to a two-year, $18M deal with the 76ers, league source tells @TheVertical.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojVerticalNBA) 5 July 2016

he has got at least 6 good games coming to him next year

[DanH]

he has got at least 6 good games coming to him next year

Which West team does he play really well against?

We play him 4 times.