The 2016 Offseason thread

[thead]

well...its almost that time of year again. This summer was harder than most to slog through, but the season draws nigh, and the raptors shall win the chip as put forth in the prophecy of aldersnatch the wise, as told in the Scrolls of Basketballbabylon

god damn I'm bored

[Sinbad]

Dan, you are un-characteristically going with perception vs. the actual data. I don't know where to find WORP numbers, but Lowry was 3rd on the Raps in total WS in the playoffs (after JV & Biyombo). And 4th in WS/48 (after JV, Biyombo & Joseph) at an non-superstar like 0.077. If WORP shows Lowry hands-down a playoff superstar head and shoulders above his teammates, then I'd be wary of using WORP data.

But back to Demar: your argument seems to hinge largely on DeMar changing and improving his game. But that's a pretty big uncertainty for a player heading into his 8th pro season. Can he change? Does he feel the need to change? Does Casey want anything to change? And we haven't even gotten into the elephant-in-the-room subject of a shooting guard who is not considered a legitimate threat from 3-pt range to stretch opposing defenses. This factors heavily into roster decisions and viable lineup combinations which could optimize other players. For example, if Demar had an above average 3-pt shot, that opens up the possibility of not needing as stretchy a PF to pair with JV, which is a sought after commodity in today's NBA.

The reality is that it's not only DeMar's individual production that must be taken into account when evaluating his worth - it's also that his flaws force and limit other roster and salary decisions based on supply/demand.

It does strike me as odd that Dan is eschewing data in favour of perception with Lowry, but its not surprising. Lowry has earned a ton of cache from fans and media for his play the last few years. The Raptors aren't "the Raptors" without him. But its a step too far to say that Lowry was the driving force for playoff wins. He struggled historically throughout the postseason, and every excuse imaginable was thrown up to excuse him for it. I'm wary of WORP data too, and I'm not accusing Dan of excusing Lowry now, but to say that he was the driving force for playoff wins this time around is a stretch.

As for DeMar, well, its the same old argument on whether his positives can outweigh his negatives going forward. A SG incapable of stretching the floor is a glaring drawback in today's NBA, but Masai has chosen to work around that. Terrence Ross remains a Raptor because DeMar can't shoot, needing a stretch PF/C is always mentioned as a means to open the floor up for him, and I suspect that Casey's fascination with 2 PG lineups is at least in part due to DD's inability to be a consistent playmaker for others; he's wired to look for his shot regardless of situation, and passing doesn't come naturally to him. And this is before we even address his defensive shortcomings, and the lengths Casey goes to hide him.

Building a team around him is tricky; he needs a high volume of possessions and a particular combination of players around him to maximize his productivity at the expense of others. And that's not a shot at him. He's effective in that role. But his flaws are tough to swallow, and will get tougher as Lowry ages and DD's USG% increases-- if Casey sticks around and the system doesn't change. He's been extended twice by Masai now, so I doubt he'll shift his approach too much.

[DanH]

Dan, you are un-characteristically going with perception vs. the actual data. I don't know where to find WORP numbers, but Lowry was 3rd on the Raps in total WS in the playoffs (after JV & Biyombo). And 4th in WS/48 (after JV, Biyombo & Joseph) at an non-superstar like 0.077. If WORP shows Lowry hands-down a playoff superstar head and shoulders above his teammates, then I'd be wary of using WORP data.

Yeah, WS is driven HARD by efficiency. But look at the on-off splits. The team was complete and utter trash every second Lowry sat on the bench. He drives the team's engine and even when he was struggling shooting the ball, he was doing all the little things that help the team win at an elite level, as he always does.

For the record, yes, he led the team in playoff VORP with +1.1, with JV (0.5) and PP (0.4) coming in behind him. DD ranked last on the team with -0.3, for the record. VORP to wins is roughly *2.7, so Lowry was worth about 3 wins, JV 1.5 and PP about 1. That's "ORP" too, so there's a baseline expected 4 wins over 20 games to consider as well, meaning Lowry was responsible for 3 wins generated of our 10 above-replacement wins.

But my opinion on Lowry's playoff performance is not based on those numbers (although they sure do make for good evidence supporting it) - just watching the playoffs you could tell. He struggled incredibly with his shot but the team died when he sat down and it's not a coincidence.

But back to Demar: your argument seems to hinge largely on DeMar changing and improving his game. But that's a pretty big uncertainty for a player heading into his 8th pro season. Can he change? Does he feel the need to change? Does Casey want anything to change? And we haven't even gotten into the elephant-in-the-room subject of a shooting guard who is not considered a legitimate threat from 3-pt range to stretch opposing defenses. This factors heavily into roster decisions and viable lineup combinations which could optimize other players. For example, if Demar had an above average 3-pt shot, that opens up the possibility of not needing as stretchy a PF to pair with JV, which is a sought after commodity in today's NBA.

My argument hinges on DeMar improving slightly. He's shown general improvement over the past three seasons, even with the hiccup that was the disastrous 2014-15 in the middle there (and that team was poisonous, as it turned out).

Can he change? He changed a great deal last year compared to years before, and especially compared directly to the year prior. Obviously he can change. The question is to what degree - he is probably close to as good as he will get. I expect some small incremental improvements in his game, which is all that would be required for him to statistically measure up to his cost, and the value of his role (heavy usage) is crucial to the team as constructed.

The reality is that it's not only DeMar's individual production that must be taken into account when evaluating his worth - it's also that his flaws force and limit other roster and salary decisions based on supply/demand.

Every player has said flaws. JV has those flaws. As does Lowry. Lowry is the star we are building around, and he is incapable of carrying a heavy offensive load so we shelled out significant dollars to DeRozan specifically to cover that weakness. Yes, having these specific players on the team requires you to get players that fit with them. Yes, it would be great if DD was a superstar, but he's not. It would be great if we had a superstar chomping at the bit to sign here instead of DD but we didn't. As it stands now, DeRozan is a quality player who is a key contributor to success and also a trade piece that will not be without value in the coming years of inflated contracts, which could actually be a key to acquiring a game changing talent rather than an obstruction as you posit.

[DanH]

For the record:

1st round:
Net rating with Lowry on the floor: -0.4
Net rating with Lowry on the bench: -19.6

2nd round:
Net rating with Lowry on the floor: +10.7
Net rating with Lowry on the bench: -44.1

The 3rd round was mostly a beatdown from the Cavs and there wasn't a clear difference there. But in the first two rounds, Lowry willed us to both series wins.

[white men can't jump]

For the record:

1st round:
Net rating with Lowry on the floor: -0.4
Net rating with Lowry on the bench: -19.6

2nd round:
Net rating with Lowry on the floor: +10.7
Net rating with Lowry on the bench: -44.1

The 3rd round was mostly a beatdown from the Cavs and there wasn't a clear difference there. But in the first two rounds, Lowry willed us to both series wins.

I would probably say JV willed us to that 1st round win, especially considering how much work he did without people passing to him.

Lowry was good but found another gear in the 2nd round, in the game JV went down and Wade was leading a charge to get Miami back in that game. He carried us through that series for sure. If we lost that game i dont think we would have recovered and I think that fully clicked with Lowry in that moment. (And if JV hadn't come out strong in that series we might've been in too deep a hole for Lowry to be that difference maker).

Demar was pretty awful all playoffs. In the 1st round we were definitely a better team with him off the court, any way you slice it. He may have been the worst rotation player on any playoff team in that 1st round.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[psrs1]

Win or lose against The Warriors in their first preseason game and RR members will arrive to some serious conclusions from the get go. I fully expect someone to write "omg Poetltl sucks!! Quick let's trade him to Indiana for Paul George and fire Casey!"

Is that a viable option?

[golden]

For the record:

1st round:
Net rating with Lowry on the floor: -0.4
Net rating with Lowry on the bench: -19.6

2nd round:
Net rating with Lowry on the floor: +10.7
Net rating with Lowry on the bench: -44.1

The 3rd round was mostly a beatdown from the Cavs and there wasn't a clear difference there. But in the first two rounds, Lowry willed us to both series wins.

I'd be careful about using raw un-adjusted on/off stats to draw black & white conclusions, especially considering the sample size for 'off'. For example, if you look at the Warriors playoff run for their top 5 minutes guys (playing > 600 total minutes).

On a per 100 possession basis, only Draymond Green (+12.3) was a net positive - by a wide margin, using On/Off. Those 'other' scrubs were all net negative contributors. Curry (-2.7), Klay (-5.5), Iggy (-1.6) & Barnes (-3.8).

Looking at that data, one might possibly conclude that Draymond put the Golden State on his back and dragged them all the way to game 7 of NBA finals.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...on_off_p::none

[Hotshot]

Is that a viable option?

For some delusional fans it is. "DUH let's package TRoss with BeBe to land a star,"

[DanH]

I'd be careful about using raw un-adjusted on/off stats to draw black & white conclusions, especially considering the sample size for 'off'. For example, if you look at the Warriors playoff run for their top 5 minutes guys (playing > 600 total minutes).

On a per 100 possession basis, only Draymond Green (+12.3) was a net positive - by a wide margin, using On/Off. Those 'other' scrubs were all net negative contributors. Curry (-2.7), Klay (-5.5), Iggy (-1.6) & Barnes (-3.8).

Looking at that data, one might possibly conclude that Draymond put the Golden State on his back and dragged them all the way to game 7 of NBA finals.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...on_off_p::none

Absolutely, that why I a) watch the games and draw my own conclusions (which were that the team was completely useless whenever Lowry sat) and b) look at multiple stats to try to support/refute those initial impressions and on-off splits AND impact plus-minus stats both point to supporting that conclusion.

I can't draw any conclusions from the GSW data. It does not mean that Green was putting the team on his back. It means that he was probably the biggest reason for their success - and with Curry hurt and recovering for large chunks of the playoffs and how lost the team looked when Green missed time, I buy it. Curry et al still had very solid on-court ratings and impact numbers, so were not exactly dead weight. But without having watched all the games myself I'm certainly not confident in those conclusions (or not as confident as I am in my Lowry conclusion).

[Deino]

Guys
I haven't heard anything yet but it's a concern(or is it just me) really to get the wright person for the job.
Anyone aware of decisions made regarding coaching staff vacancies (Greer Stackhouse..), specifically a defensive specialist assistant, as we're approaching the preseason !!

[DanH]

Guys
I haven't heard anything yet but it's a concern(or is it just me) really to get the wright person for the job.
Anyone aware of decisions made regarding coaching staff vacancies (Greer Stackhouse..), specifically a defensive specialist assistant, as we're approaching the preseason !!

One of the beat writers suggested there were rumblings most positions would be filled internally via promotions. No actual report though.

[consmap]

2 weeks till preseason

huehuehuehuehuehue

[rocwell]

Apparently we've just hired Patrick Mutombo. Masai's guy

[The Great One]

Apparently we've just hired Patrick Mutombo. Masai's guy

Who?

So we still don't have a replacement for Andy Greer?

[golden]

Feels like we've taken a step backwards in terms of experience on the coaching staff. Casey always talks about the importance of 'veterans', yet we lost Green and Murmuys (and Stackhouse to the 905) and replaced them with a rookie coach at the end of the bench?

One would have thought that if the Raps see themselves as contenders, then experience should also apply to the coaching staff, perhaps upgrading the assistants to some former head coaches who are in between jobs. Not sure what to make of this.