Everything Jared Sullinger

[golden]

Problems with Siakam starting are basically:

1) On the defensive end, good teams will challenge DeMar/Siakam in PnR situations often. DeMar gives up on plays, and if Siakam makes the wrong read, it's an easy basket.

2) On the offensive end, teams will not respect him, which results in clogged paint scenarios.

Pascal will fit just fine on offense, as long as he can grab offensive rebounds at a high rate, which I think he can. That allows Lowry and DD to take more low percentage shots, without killing the overall team offensive efficiency. People underestimate just how much the Raps offense relies on OREB% and FTs as core elements.

[Barolt]

Pascal will fit just fine on offense, as long as he can grab offensive rebounds at a high rate, which I think he can. That allows Lowry and DD to take more low percentage shots, without killing the overall team offensive efficiency. People underestimate just how much the Raps offense relies on OREB% and FTs as core elements.

The best offensive rebounding team in the league last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder, rebounded 31% of their own misses.

That's the elite of elite. So if you're taking low percentage shots, say ~35% chance to make, and you have a 30% chance to get the offensive rebound, that's still a 48% chance that you don't score, and that's assuming that you convert on 100% of your offensive rebounding chances.

[DanH]

Pascal will fit just fine on offense, as long as he can grab offensive rebounds at a high rate, which I think he can. That allows Lowry and DD to take more low percentage shots, without killing the overall team offensive efficiency. People underestimate just how much the Raps offense relies on OREB% and FTs as core elements.

Raps were middle of the pack in offensive rebounding last year, and a top 5 offence. Free throws and low turnovers are why their offence is great - the offensive rebounds are helpful but by no means a key component to their success.

Pascal this pre-season has grabbed about 10% of available offensive boards. A guy like Patterson grabs about 5%. Over the course of 16 minutes (1/3 of a game), that's roughly 16 missed shots available for rebounding. At a rate of 5% more rebounds, that's... 1.6 offensive boards instead of 0.8. All at the cost of the initial offence being a mess because of spacing. Offensive rebounds are great, they help a lot. But they don't erase all sins.

[Nilanka]

Well everyone get prepared for our starts to be just as bad as they were last season because Pascal in the starting line up is just as terrible as Scola was. Carroll CANNOT get injured before Sullinger comes back and JV needs to get his fucking shit together because this I dont give a fuck way he has been playing is not going to fly anymore. And once again Patterson is going to have to play a whole bunch of minutes in a row to save us from the mess Pascal is going to be. Thank God Pascal is at least agile and athletic unlike Scola. But he can't shoot for shit, gets lost on defense if it's not 1 on 1 play and even struggles to finish in the paint. Oh and he can't shoot free throws.

We'll just really big minutes from Jonas and 2Pat this year.

[planetmars]

Even with Sully out for 20+ games, I'd assume the Raptors will still make the playoffs. I don't really think seeding means much. Raptors won two game 7's, but quite frankly they were also a pretty good road team last year. The year before they got swept despite having home court advantage.

Biggest issue will be chemistry when he comes back healthy. And I hope that doesn't become an issue in the playoffs.

I think Siakam will end up being a good player. So this will just speed up his development. Would still prefer 2Pat to start, but Casey hates to screw with his rotations, and 2Pat will end up with a lot of minutes anyway. JV may actually average more than 30mpg as well (finally). Will be interesting to see how that unfolds.

[Lupe]

With Pascal or Jared starting we're going to have the exact same issue as last year with the slow starts and the bench units (particularly DeMar/Lowry + Bench) drastically outperforming our starters, and Jonas not being able to flourish as much with a lane clogger playing next to him.

I liked Jared as a backup center, but not as a starting power forward (or even a power forward period). He can't space the floor and he isn't quick enough to defend most fours. It's going to be rough to watch the way we start games again just like last year.

[golden]

Raps were middle of the pack in offensive rebounding last year, and a top 5 offence. Free throws and low turnovers are why their offence is great - the offensive rebounds are helpful but by no means a key component to their success.

Pascal this pre-season has grabbed about 10% of available offensive boards. A guy like Patterson grabs about 5%. Over the course of 16 minutes (1/3 of a game), that's roughly 16 missed shots available for rebounding. At a rate of 5% more rebounds, that's... 1.6 offensive boards instead of 0.8. All at the cost of the initial offence being a mess because of spacing. Offensive rebounds are great, they help a lot. But they don't erase all sins.

I'm thinking more about the starting lineup wrt to fit & role, as opposed to aggregate rebounding numbers. A guy like Siakam will fill a role similar to Amir on offense - a low usage guy whose job is to set good screens, roll to the basket and rebound Lowry/DD misses. Having a guy like Siakam simplifies Lowry/DD's approach on offense and allows them to be more in attack mode vs. facilitating for others. Things like these, i.e., a player's approach/mindset, lineup clarity of role, etc... , will not show up in the numbers, but do make the overall lineup offense more efficient.

People (other than myself) scoffed at the notion that Biz could be a starter, but the lineup worked for similar reasons. If Siakam turns out to be a good help defender, this also helps Lowry/DD slack off a bit on defense, like Biz.

The main issue with Siakam will be rookie mistakes and if Lowry/DD/Casey start to lose trust in him. The lineup fit seems almost identical to the Amir/JV frontcourt, which worked well.

[DanH]

I'm thinking more about the starting lineup wrt to fit & role, as opposed to aggregate rebounding numbers. A guy like Siakam will fill a role similar to Amir on offense - a low usage guy whose job is to set good screens, roll to the basket and rebound Lowry/DD misses. Having a guy like Siakam simplifies Lowry/DD's approach on offense and allows them to be more in attack mode vs. facilitating for others. Things like these, i.e., a player's approach/mindset, lineup clarity of role, etc... , will not show up in the numbers, but do make the overall lineup offense more efficient.

People (other than myself) scoffed at the notion that Biz could be a starter, but the lineup worked for similar reasons. If Siakam turns out to be a good help defender, this also helps Lowry/DD slack off a bit on defense, like Biz.

The main issue with Siakam will be rookie mistakes and if Lowry/DD/Casey start to lose trust in him. The lineup fit seems almost identical to the Amir/JV frontcourt, which worked well.

Why then are the offensive numbers with Patterson in the lineup, a guy who does not fit that rebounding role, and is in fact a guy who needs to be spoonfed offensive touches by guards worried about facilitating for others, significantly better (like, ridiculously better) than when he is not in the lineup, even in closing lineups with the rest of the starters? We're talking overall lineup efficiency.

Wait, what lineup worked? Biz as a starter last season (ie in lineups with Scola, DD and Lowry) posted a -3 net rating. He only ever posted real positive numbers in those Lowry-or-DeMar-beat-up-on-inferior-players bench units.

Functionally you can get away with a lot with a guy like Amir. Keep in mind in his last couple seasons here he was shooting 45-48% from the long midrange, so that helped a lot. Plus he's just a one-in-a-million player who fits everyone. He's smart, instinctual, sets great screens, knows exactly when to cut into the lane, can knock down alley-oops, can pass the ball and can get out of the way when needed. None of that applies to Siakam yet. Nevermind that Amir really wasn't much of an offensive rebound threat in his last couple years with the Raps (sub-10% OREB%), so the description of that role seems wrong.

[Barolt]

I'm thinking more about the starting lineup wrt to fit & role, as opposed to aggregate rebounding numbers. A guy like Siakam will fill a role similar to Amir on offense - a low usage guy whose job is to set good screens, roll to the basket and rebound Lowry/DD misses. Having a guy like Siakam simplifies Lowry/DD's approach on offense and allows them to be more in attack mode vs. facilitating for others. Things like these, i.e., a player's approach/mindset, lineup clarity of role, etc... , will not show up in the numbers, but do make the overall lineup offense more efficient.

People (other than myself) scoffed at the notion that Biz could be a starter, but the lineup worked for similar reasons. If Siakam turns out to be a good help defender, this also helps Lowry/DD slack off a bit on defense, like Biz.

The main issue with Siakam will be rookie mistakes and if Lowry/DD/Casey start to lose trust in him. The lineup fit seems almost identical to the Amir/JV frontcourt, which worked well.

The only starting lineup, all season, to be a positive was:

Kyle/DeMar/Ross/Scola/Bismack.

That's it. While you could credit that to Bismack, if you swap Ross for Carroll, Powell, or JJ it's a negative again.

[golden]

Why then are the offensive numbers with Patterson in the lineup, a guy who does not fit that rebounding role, and is in fact a guy who needs to be spoonfed offensive touches by guards worried about facilitating for others, significantly better (like, ridiculously better) than when he is not in the lineup, even in closing lineups with the rest of the starters? We're talking overall lineup efficiency.

Wait, what lineup worked? Biz as a starter last season (ie in lineups with Scola, DD and Lowry) posted a -3 net rating. He only ever posted real positive numbers in those Lowry-or-DeMar-beat-up-on-inferior-players bench units.

Functionally you can get away with a lot with a guy like Amir. Keep in mind in his last couple seasons here he was shooting 45-48% from the long midrange, so that helped a lot. Plus he's just a one-in-a-million player who fits everyone. He's smart, instinctual, sets great screens, knows exactly when to cut into the lane, can knock down alley-oops, can pass the ball and can get out of the way when needed. None of that applies to Siakam yet. Nevermind that Amir really wasn't much of an offensive rebound threat in his last couple years with the Raps (sub-10% OREB%), so the description of that role seems wrong.

I would guess because the guy Patterson replaces is Scola. And the guy Biz plays with is Scola. You probably need to be very careful using on/off net ratings to draw black & white conclusions when the guy who is on or off is the worst player on the team.

Nobody said that Patterson doesn't fit either (which I have also posted many times), mainly because he is low usage and provides spacing which gives Lowry & DD driving lanes, but guys like Siakam/Biz/Amir who would initially appear not to fit, actually do.

And yes, Amir was under 10% OREB his last 2 seasons (at > 9%, LOL), and he was still a highly efficient finisher (112/115 ORTG) and set great screens.

[DanH]

I would guess because the guy Patterson replaces is Scola. And the guy Biz plays with is Scola. You probably need to be very careful using on/off net ratings to draw black & white conclusions when the guy who is on or off is the worst player on the team.

Nobody said that Patterson doesn't fit either (which I have also posted many times), mainly because he is low usage and provides spacing which gives Lowry & DD driving lanes, but guys like Siakam/Biz/Amir who would initially appear not to fit, actually do.

And yes, Amir was under 10% OREB his last 2 seasons (at > 9%, LOL), and he was still a highly efficient finisher (112/115 ORTG) and set great screens.

Yes, and none of which applies to Siakam, which was my point.

[golden]

Yes, and none of which applies to Siakam, which was my point.

Well, nothing applies to any rookie before they actually play regular season games, so I'm not even sure what your point there is.

Siakam has been highly efficient in preseason (.613 FG%) at low usage, and grabbed 10% OREB (your numbers) and set OK screens (eye test). That is somewhat Amir-like, so the potential for offensive fit is there - so it does apply, at least as something we can speculate and project on.

[DanH]

I would guess because the guy Patterson replaces is Scola. And the guy Biz plays with is Scola. You probably need to be very careful using on/off net ratings to draw black & white conclusions when the guy who is on or off is the worst player on the team.

Nobody said that Patterson doesn't fit either (which I have also posted many times), mainly because he is low usage and provides spacing which gives Lowry & DD driving lanes, but guys like Siakam/Biz/Amir who would initially appear not to fit, actually do.

And yes, Amir was under 10% OREB his last 2 seasons (at > 9%, LOL), and he was still a highly efficient finisher (112/115 ORTG) and set great screens.

Meanwhile, yes, the data supporting the idea that the fit is bad is flawed, for sure.

Of course, that also means there is no data to support your claim that fit won't be an issue.

Meanwhile, to remove the Scola factor, let's look at how the team performed a) with Biz and Patterson, one of whom is that set picks, hit the boards type, versus b) with JV and Patterson, where JV sets screens, but is a credible offensive threat who can play all over the floor (who conveniently also hits the boards).

BB+PP: 105 ORTG
JV+PP: 120 ORTG

Having guys who can hit jumpers and do more stuff than just screen and rebound helps the offence. There is no question about it. Sadly we have little data on PF without Scola affecting it. But it is worth noting that JV and BB literally played one possession together all season long, so clearly Casey does not believe that having a screen-and-board guy at PF beside JV is all that sustainable.

[DanH]

Well, nothing applies to any rookie before they actually play regular season games, so I'm not even sure what your point there is.

Siakam has been highly efficient in preseason (.613 FG%) at low usage, and grabbed 10% OREB (your numbers) and set OK screens (eye test). That is somewhat Amir-like, so the potential for offensive fit is there - so it does apply, at least as something we can speculate and project on.

I'm... not seeing that highly efficient pre-season FG%. Looks like 52% to me. 52% FG% at low usage is anything but highly efficient. TS% even lower. And I disagree with your eye test on his screen setting, but that's a conversation that leads nowhere.

10% isn't a threshold I set for good offensive rebounding, it was a description of Amir's rebounding. A great offensive rebounder floats around 12-15% of offensive boards. JV grabs 14%, Biyombo grabbed 12% last year. 9% is well below that. That said, Siakam grabbing around 10% seems right, he's a fine offensive rebounder (even to the eye test seems better than Amir was in his past few years here) but it's not a big strength like with those other guys. I'm trying to say that Amir is a bad example of the sort of player Siakam could be - Siakam does not have the jumper, does not have the awareness, does not (IMO) have the screen setting... Maybe a few years down the road he could grow into an Amir-type player with experience, but right now?

[golden]

Meanwhile, yes, the data supporting the idea that the fit is bad is flawed, for sure.

Of course, that also means there is no data to support your claim that fit won't be an issue.

Meanwhile, to remove the Scola factor, let's look at how the team performed a) with Biz and Patterson, one of whom is that set picks, hit the boards type, versus b) with JV and Patterson, where JV sets screens, but is a credible offensive threat who can play all over the floor (who conveniently also hits the boards).

BB+PP: 105 ORTG
JV+PP: 120 ORTG

Having guys who can hit jumpers and do more stuff than just screen and rebound helps the offence. There is no question about it. Sadly we have little data on PF without Scola affecting it. But it is worth noting that JV and BB literally played one possession together all season long, so clearly Casey does not believe that having a screen-and-board guy at PF beside JV is all that sustainable.

There's 2 seasons worth of JV/Amir data, finishing 4th and 10th in team ORTG. That's plenty of non-Scola data.

Again this started with Barolt's assertion that Siakam's lack of spacing would hurt the offense. My counter is that Siakam would fill the role similar to Amir with a similar type of offensive game, beecause we've seen this type of lineup before.

I honestly feel that Lowry, DD & Casey prefer not having to think about passing and keeping bigs involved in the offense.