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Thread: What are the odds?

  1. #21
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    0. because casey is gonna need to showcase ross in order to trade him.

    what are the odds that poetl will be a surprise and fan favourite like biyombo was?
    Well Casey said that he's been highly impressed with both Jakob and Pascal so that's good to hear. So I think the odds are high
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  2. #22
    Raptors Republic Veteran Jangles's Avatar
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    Quote GLF wrote: View Post
    Well Casey said that he's been highly impressed with both Jakob and Pascal so that's good to hear. So I think the odds are high
    Casey also supposedly likes JV too

  3. #23
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    Quote Jangles wrote: View Post
    Casey also supposedly likes JV too
    Lol this is true. I guess I shouldn't believe anything he says really
    I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.

  4. #24
    Raptors Republic Superstar Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    Quote GLF wrote: View Post
    Well Casey said that he's been highly impressed with both Jakob and Pascal so that's good to hear. So I think the odds are high
    Of course he's going to say he's impressed with them, they just drafted the dudes.

    Plus, he won't have a choice but to play atleast one of them when JV inevitably gets injured.

    What are the odds we trade JV, Ross, Poetl and 2 picks for Cousins?

  5. #25
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    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    Of course he's going to say he's impressed with them, they just drafted the dudes.

    Plus, he won't have a choice but to play atleast one of them when JV inevitably gets injured.

    What are the odds we trade JV, Ross, Poetl and 2 picks for Cousins?
    Pretty close to zero.

    What are the odds Joseph plays as many total minutes as last season?

  6. #26
    Raptors Republic Superstar Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Pretty close to zero.

    What are the odds Joseph plays as many total minutes as last season?
    Lol, one can dream.

    100%. With Delon injured for the foreseeable future there aren't any real options. I could see some ultra small Lowry, CJ and Pow Pow line ups that would be a lot of fun.

    What are the odds JV plays 77 and games this year (regular season)?

  7. #27
    Raptors Republic Veteran Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    Lol, one can dream.

    100%. With Delon injured for the foreseeable future there aren't any real options. I could see some ultra small Lowry, CJ and Pow Pow line ups that would be a lot of fun.

    What are the odds JV plays 77 and games this year (regular season)?
    The odds JV plays 77 or more games are very very low. Its tough tough going inside and banging bodies with other dudes who weight over 260 lbs on a nightly basis is hazardous work. Big men get hurt. I'd put it at 500:1 that he plays north of 77 games.

    What are the odds Bebe gets hurt or strains or pulls something in training camp and starts the season on IR ?
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26th, 2016 at 09:00 PM.

  8. #28
    Raptors Republic Veteran consmap's Avatar
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    The odds JV plays 77 or more games are very very low. Its tough tough going inside and banging bodies with other dudes who weight over 260 lbs on a nightly basis is hazardous work. Big men get hurt. I'd put it at 500:1 that he plays north of 77 games.

    What are the odds Bebe gets hurt or strains or pulls something in training camp and starts the season on IR ?
    Especially if you're going up against guys like JV.

    I expect Bebe to get injured sometime during the year, he's prone. But I don't expect anything too bad.

    What are the odds that Siakam makes more of an impact than Poetl?
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  9. #29
    Raptors Republic Veteran Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote consmap wrote: View Post
    Especially if you're going up against guys like JV.

    I expect Bebe to get injured sometime during the year, he's prone. But I don't expect anything too bad.

    What are the odds that Siakam makes more of an impact than Poetl?
    It will come down to playing time... So to the surprise of many I think Jacob quite possibly makes a bigger impact this year than Pascal. ...... because Bebe will get hurt and there will be some minutes available to Poeltl that normally he wouldn't get. The kid has a high IQ and will make the most of his time.

    What are the odds that Bruno sees 300 minutes of floor time at the NBA level this year ?
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26th, 2016 at 09:39 PM.

  10. #30
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    The odds JV plays 77 or more games are very very low. Its tough tough going inside and banging bodies with other dudes who weight over 260 lbs on a nightly basis is hazardous work. Big men get hurt. I'd put it at 500:1 that he plays north of 77 games.

    What are the odds Bebe gets hurt or strains or pulls something in training camp and starts the season on IR ?
    You do know that two of the past three seasons JV has played 77+ games, yeah? He missed two games and one game, two and three years ago. 500:1 may be a little excessive...

  11. #31
    Raptors Republic Veteran Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    You do know that two of the past three seasons JV has played 77+ games, yeah? He missed two games and one game, two and three years ago. 500:1 may be a little excessive...
    Not with the minutes he is going to log his year.. so no... I don't think 500:1 is excessive. JV isn't soft or injury prone.. its just the heavy going that takes its toll. Hell they may rest him for a game or two and he won't play.

    So I will take the bet... he doesn't make the 77 games with you...

    We can cycle back in April to see who smiles knowingly....
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26th, 2016 at 10:03 PM.

  12. #32
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    Not with the minutes he is going to log his year.. so no... I don't think 500:1 is excessive. JV isn't soft or injury prone.. its just the heavy going that takes its toll. Hell they may rest him for a game or two and he won't play.

    So I will take the bet... he doesn't make the 77 games with you...

    We can cycle back in April to see who smiles knowingly....
    I didn't say I'd bet on him breaking 77 games. I said 500:1 is a ridiculous level of confidence to have in something that happened 2 times in the past three years not happening. Last year, when he got hurt, he played fewer MPG than the two years where he barely missed any time, so I don't buy your logic at all on that front. Two years ago he topped 28 MPG and missed only a single game.

    You are right that there is a decent chance he misses more than 5 games. Your are dead wrong that it's a sure bet.

  13. #33
    Raptors Republic Veteran Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    I didn't say I'd bet on him breaking 77 games. I said 500:1 is a ridiculous level of confidence to have in something that happened 2 times in the past three years not happening. Last year, when he got hurt, he played fewer MPG than the two years where he barely missed any time, so I don't buy your logic at all on that front. Two years ago he topped 28 MPG and missed only a single game.

    You are right that there is a decent chance he misses more than 5 games. Your are dead wrong that it's a sure bet.
    It does reflect my level of confidence/insight/clairvoyance and a sure bet on this one... . .. 500 to 1... for the reasons stated in posts 27 and 31.

    Let me expand a little ...

    As the east gets better the number of big men in the east are also a little older.. a little better than last year and are proliferating.

    Drummond is now 23 and meaner in Detroit.. The right Lopez weights in at a gazillon pounds in Brooklyn...Dwight is net new in Atlanta and likes to muck it up...Whiteside is still in Miami.. Hibbert who scraps hard with JV is now in Charlotte... Big Al is in Indy.. Mahini now joins Gortat in Washington.. Biz and those elbows and knees now plays against us in Orlando.. Noah is in in Gotham..and the sixers boast both Embiid and Okafor..the wrong lopez is in chicago by way of gotham and while mascots fear him more he is still a load in the paint...and Horford.. no scratch that one...

    If your view is that its excessive then you'd bet the over, which is what I thought you were saying by asking me if I knew that he played more than 77 in two of the last three years (which I didn't btw) but doesn't change my view that its a bar brawl every night in the paint and there are lots of bigger and meaner brawlers out there this year in the east and we play em 4 times each.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26th, 2016 at 10:45 PM.

  14. #34
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    It does reflect my level of confidence/insight/clairvoyance and a sure bet on this one... . .. 500 to 1... for the reasons stated in posts 27 and 31.

    Let me expand a little ...

    As the east gets better the number of big men in the east are also a little older.. a little better than last year and are proliferating.

    Drummond is now 23 and meaner in Detroit.. The right Lopez weights in at a gazillon pounds in Brooklyn...Dwight is net new in Atlanta and likes to muck it up...Whiteside is still in Miami.. Hibbert who scraps hard with JV is now in Charlotte... Big Al is in Indy.. Mahini now joins Gortat in Washington.. Biz and those elbows and knees now plays against us in Orlando.. Noah is in in Gotham..and the sixers boast both Embiid and Okafor..

    If your view is that its excessive then you'd bet the over, which is what I thought you were saying by asking me if I knew that he played more than 77 in two of the last three years (which I didn't btw) but doesn't change my view that its a bar brawl every night in the paint and there are lots of bigger and meaner brawlers out there this year in the east and we play em 4 times each.
    I will bet the over if you stick by those 500:1 odds. I bet one dollar. Will you put 500 on the line?

    Also, I find your list of bruising big men pretty funny since most either moved from one East team to another, are still on the same teams as before, or were previously on East teams during those 80+ game seasons by JV I quoted.

  15. #35
    Super Moderator Cody73's Avatar
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    It does reflect my level of confidence/insight/clairvoyance and a sure bet on this one... . .. 500 to 1... for the reasons stated in posts 27 and 31.

    Let me expand a little ...

    As the east gets better the number of big men in the east are also a little older.. a little better than last year and are proliferating.

    Drummond is now 23 and meaner in Detroit.. The right Lopez weights in at a gazillon pounds in Brooklyn...Dwight is net new in Atlanta and likes to muck it up...Whiteside is still in Miami.. Hibbert who scraps hard with JV is now in Charlotte... Big Al is in Indy.. Mahini now joins Gortat in Washington.. Biz and those elbows and knees now plays against us in Orlando.. Noah is in in Gotham..and the sixers boast both Embiid and Okafor..the wrong lopez is in chicago by way of gotham and while mascots fear him more he is still a load in the paint...and Horford.. no scratch that one...

    If your view is that its excessive then you'd bet the over, which is what I thought you were saying by asking me if I knew that he played more than 77 in two of the last three years (which I didn't btw) but doesn't change my view that its a bar brawl every night in the paint and there are lots of bigger and meaner brawlers out there this year in the east and we play em 4 times each.
    3 guys you're forgetting:

    1. Vucevic, who IMO continues to fly under the radar at C. Don't know why.

    2. Horford/Whatever C Boston plays, including Olynyk with his perimeter game.

    3. Robin Lopez is no slouch on D himself and has given JV issues in the past. Chicago is a tricky team... if everything meshes well, they could shock & surprise.
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  16. #36
    Raptors Republic Veteran Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    I will bet the over if you stick by those 500:1 odds. I bet one dollar. Will you put 500 on the line?

    Also, I find your list of bruising big men pretty funny since most either moved from one East team to another, are still on the same teams as before, or were previously on East teams during those 80+ game seasons by JV I quoted.
    Not sure why you find it funny. The quick list illustrates just how many big bodies are out there on a nightly basis.

    Yes some of the guys are the same names as last year.. but as each year goes by all of these guys put on a bit more weight and add more old man strength. You can't help but get nicked up to the point where something gives and you get hurt.

    Some of the names such as Howard are net new as he has been out of the east for at least 3 years..Embiid is new (how long he lasts is up for debate with his back and feet). The wrong Lopez is newish as this is year two in from Portland.

    I wish I had a spare 500 to put in escrow but I don't. Still the 500:1 is very reflective of the probability that JV won't see north of 77 beside GP.


    What are the odds that either of Pascal Siakam or Jake Poeltl will play more than 200 minutes this year ?
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Mon Sep 26th, 2016 at 11:53 PM. Reason: added the next odds question

  17. #37
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    500:1.... 18 C's played 77+ games last season, out of a presumed 60 planned rotational C's. 8 starting C's did it out of 30. So the odds league wide are between 2:1 and 3:1.

  18. #38
    Raptors Republic Superstar Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    500:1.... 18 C's played 77+ games last season, out of a presumed 60 planned rotational C's. 8 starting C's did it out of 30. So the odds league wide are between 2:1 and 3:1.
    Boom.

    What are the odds demographic shift responds again an DanH obliterates him again? Just kidding, fun debate.

    What are the odds Powell shoots >37% from 3?

  19. #39
    Raptors Republic Starter Deino's Avatar
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    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    Boom.

    What are the odds demographic shift responds again an DanH obliterates him again? Just kidding, fun debate.

    What are the odds Powell shoots >37% from 3?
    70:30 since he's a "jim-a-holic" with a focused mindset,we can count on Powell continue his rise including 3 shot percentage.
    What are the odds Raps acquire a rim protector before this season's trade deadline.

  20. #40
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    Quote Deino wrote: View Post
    70:30 since he's a "jim-a-holic" with a focused mindset,we can count on Powell continue his rise including 3 shot percentage.

    What are the odds Raps acquire a rim protector before this season's trade deadline.
    Very low - 0%-5%.

    Rim protectors aren't cheap, and acquiring one would carry a significant cost. Since we have JV, we aren't likely making a big splash at the C position this year. Not many PFs or SFs are really rim protectors and those are the positions most likely to be addressed by trades.


    What are the odds that Lowry and Demar are both in top 15 MPG this year? (both were top 10 last year)
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