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Thread: What are the odds?

  1. #41
    Raptors Republic All-Star Raptor Jesus's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Very low - 0%-5%.

    Rim protectors aren't cheap, and acquiring one would carry a significant cost. Since we have JV, we aren't likely making a big splash at the C position this year. Not many PFs or SFs are really rim protectors and those are the positions most likely to be addressed by trades.


    What are the odds that Lowry and Demar are both in top 15 MPG this year? (both were top 10 last year)
    75%

    What are the Odds we don't upgrade the starting PF by the trade deadline?

  2. #42
    Raptors Republic Superstar Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    500:1.... 18 C's played 77+ games last season, out of a presumed 60 planned rotational C's. 8 starting C's did it out of 30. So the odds league wide are between 2:1 and 3:1.
    Were real life so easy to predict using algorithms and statistical probability eh ?
    Not that its a good thing but JV is highly unlikely to get 77 Games Played this year. So its still 500:1
    I will call you when he misses game 5


    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    Boom.

    What are the odds demographic shift responds again an DanH obliterates him again? Just kidding, fun debate.

    What are the odds Powell shoots >37% from 3?
    Probably 100% since I am responding now after a few days off ...
    I hardly feel obliterated by another guys opinion btw .. its just different...

  3. #43
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    Were real life so easy to predict using algorithms and statistical probability eh ?
    Not that its a good thing but JV is highly unlikely to get 77 Games Played this year. So its still 500:1
    I will call you when he misses game 5
    Recommend you wait until he misses game 6.

    JV is indeed unlikely to get to 77 games. He has about a 25-35% chance of doing so, based on league wide trends. Him not doing so will say nothing about the validity of your 500:1.

  4. #44
    Raptors Republic Superstar Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Recommend you wait until he misses game 6.

    JV is indeed unlikely to get to 77 games. He has about a 25-35% chance of doing so, based on league wide trends. Him not doing so will say nothing about the validity of your 500:1.
    This horse is officially dead...
    Two points of view that agree on an outcome but differing on the odds of that outcome...

    What are the odds that aggregated games missed by the Knicks superteam trioka ===> Rose / Anthony / Noah are greater than 30 ?

  5. #45
    Raptors Republic Superstar Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    This horse is officially dead...
    Two points of view that agree on an outcome but differing on the odds of that outcome...

    What are the odds that aggregated games missed by the Knicks superteam trioka ===> Rose / Anthony / Noah are greater than 30 ?
    100%.

    What are the odds Bruno makes more than 7 threes in the regular season. (No, preseason doesn't count)

  6. #46
    Super Moderator Cody73's Avatar
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    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    100%.

    What are the odds Bruno makes more than 7 threes in the regular season. (No, preseason doesn't count)
    15%.

    He'll most likely make at least 5 NBA 3-balls, but I'm not sure if he'll play as much as we think for the Raps this year.
    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Now Cody can stop posting about this guy and we have a poster to blame if anything goes wrong!!
    Quote KeonClark wrote: View Post
    We won't hear back from him. He dissapears into thin air and reappears when you least expect it. Ten is an enigma. Ten is a legend. Ten for the motherfucking win.

  7. #47
    Raptors Republic Superstar Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    Quote Cody73 wrote: View Post
    15%.

    He'll most likely make at least 5 NBA 3-balls, but I'm not sure if he'll play as much as we think for the Raps this year.
    Who thinks he's going to play? Lol. He's got a long way to go. Only reason I set it as high as 7 is because I didn't want Bebe writing a sob message on Instagram about me hurting Bruno's feelings haha.

    What are the odds Carroll plays 65 games this year?

  8. #48
    Super Moderator Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    Who thinks he's going to play? Lol. He's got a long way to go. Only reason I set it as high as 7 is because I didn't want Bebe writing a sob message on Instagram about me hurting Bruno's feelings haha.

    What are the odds Carroll plays 65 games this year?
    In 7 seasons, he's done that 4 times, so slightly better than 50%. I'm going to give him 65% of 65 games.

    What are the odds that Patterson starts this season with another shooting slump?
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

  9. #49
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    In 7 seasons, he's done that 4 times, so slightly better than 50%. I'm going to give him 65% of 65 games.

    What are the odds that Patterson starts this season with another shooting slump?
    Going to need shooting slump defined, as well as "starts." He shot 8-15 from 3 to start last season, then went off his game for 6 games or so, then caught fire again, then off again...

  10. #50
    Super Moderator Axel's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Going to need shooting slump defined, as well as "starts." He shot 8-15 from 3 to start last season, then went off his game for 6 games or so, then caught fire again, then off again...
    His FG% and 3P% were below career average in November and December; will we see a repeat of sub-career averages in the season before Christmas?
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

  11. #51
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    His FG% and 3P% were below career average in November and December; will we see a repeat of sub-career averages in the season before Christmas?
    Better! Well, he will almost certainly be below his career average FG% - earlier in his career he took fewer threes and as such had a higher FG%. In terms of 3PT%, he's pretty consistently average over a whole season so I'll say 50/50.

    What are the odds the Raps have a winning record against the West this season?

  12. #52
    Raptors Republic Veteran Barolt's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Better! Well, he will almost certainly be below his career average FG% - earlier in his career he took fewer threes and as such had a higher FG%. In terms of 3PT%, he's pretty consistently average over a whole season so I'll say 50/50.

    What are the odds the Raps have a winning record against the West this season?
    I think the bottom half of the West is incredibly flawed this year, and even account for us probably having a losing record against at least one or two terrible West teams, I think we get there. I'll go 80/20.

    What are the odds Patrick Patterson starts at PF during the regular season at least once this year?
    twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

  13. #53
    Raptors Republic Veteran planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Barolt wrote: View Post
    I think the bottom half of the West is incredibly flawed this year, and even account for us probably having a losing record against at least one or two terrible West teams, I think we get there. I'll go 80/20.

    What are the odds Patrick Patterson starts at PF during the regular season at least once this year?
    5-10%. If Sully gets hurt, than I see Siakam starting in his place. Casey doesn't like changing his rotations, unless he's absolutely forced into it.

    What are the odds that JV gets in the all-star game this year?

  14. #54
    Raptors Republic Superstar Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    5-10%. If Sully gets hurt, than I see Siakam starting in his place. Casey doesn't like changing his rotations, unless he's absolutely forced into it.

    What are the odds that JV gets in the all-star game this year?
    Dare I say 500:1 ?

    In any event.. its pretty long odds because even if JV takes another step with his game he faces an uphill battle and longer odds to get there.. Why you ask .. even against other C's he is facing ...

    Dwight Howard a recognizable name is back in the east ...
    Al Horford will get looks as both a 4 and a 5 in the media hotbed of Boston
    Andre Drummond even in Detroit will still have more recognition value than JV in the states..
    Noah in Gotham if he stays healthy has the NY press corps behind him

    I understand the vote is frontcourt and backcourt... but its gonna be tough. Very tough for JV to get selected to the ASG.

  15. #55
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    Quote Demographic Shift wrote: View Post
    Dare I say 500:1 ?

    In any event.. its pretty long odds because even if JV takes another step with his game he faces an uphill battle and longer odds to get there.. Why you ask .. even against other C's he is facing ...

    Dwight Howard a recognizable name is back in the east ...
    Al Horford will get looks as both a 4 and a 5 in the media hotbed of Boston
    Andre Drummond even in Detroit will still have more recognition value than JV in the states..
    Noah in Gotham if he stays healthy has the NY press corps behind him

    I understand the vote is frontcourt and backcourt... but its gonna be tough. Very tough for JV to get selected to the ASG.
    Also, he won't have the statistics that Drummond, Howard, and Horford will likely get. They are higher priority options on their teams and will get more touches than Valanciunas will ever get here.

  16. #56
    Raptors Republic Superstar Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    What are the odds Pascal Siakam contributes more this year (for them Raptors, not the 905) than Poetl?

  17. #57
    Raptors Republic Veteran Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    What are the odds Pascal Siakam contributes more this year (for them Raptors, not the 905) than Poetl?
    tough question since he presumably is a 4 where we are deep. i think there is a really slim chance that happens.

    what are the odds that dan laments the loss of scola to the point of saying the team was better with him than sully?

  18. #58
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    70/30 for Ross and 90/10 for JV

  19. #59
    Raptors Republic Superstar Scraptor's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    what are the odds that dan laments the loss of scola to the point of saying the team was better with him than sully?
    33%. That may seem high, but you guys should have read what Boston fans said about Sully last spring. They absolutely hated him. I honestly don't know if the Scola hate was > the Sully hate.

    Hopefully we get good/motivated Sully and don't face too many issues.

    This ties to this:
    Quote Raptor Jesus wrote:
    What are the Odds we don't upgrade the starting PF by the trade deadline?
    I'd say 50/50 contingent on Sully flopping. So about 16-17%.

    ------------------

    What are the odds we make a trade at all?

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