Everything 2016/17 NBA Draft Thread aka Thank Nation 2.0

[lewro]

lewro, I've never been a JV defender, there still are more than enough of them here, but Dan is right about JV.

JV was the epitome of a league average player last year (per Pelton's WARP), with one of his biggest skills being rebounding. And unless Ainge wants JV, the only other team that really needs that skill is Toronto. JV is more valuable to us than most any other team.

The league is not fixed in stone; transactions and injuries will happen and team needs will change by extension.
Looking at adv stats like rpm, BPM and vorp, Demarre grades out 0 to slight positive whereas Jonas is mostly slight negatives to 0. How does Demarre grade in warp? Can you link me how to search that stat plz? Thx
I've said so many times I'd rather trade Demarre but I'd want to weigh the asset attached with Demarre vs the asset returned for JV.
Masai did not deny to JV that he discussed trading him for Drummond, he just said that JV is better. This demonstrates that JV is in play and to dismiss it constitutes willfull blindness imo. Perhaps the return will not be sufficient but we don't know that yet and imo the draft was a great opportunity to dump Demarre and it didn't happen or get mentioned in the media (as JV did). We will see... If I had to get it would be Demarre but I'm not so confident to make that bet.

[3inthekeon]

How does Demarre grade in warp? Can you link me how to search that stat plz? Thx.

No idea where that stat is - probably behind a paywall.

The JV stat is from a Paul George Insider article a few days ago.

By the end of a five-year deal, players similar to George saw their value decline nearly by half. For context, 10-plus WARP typically translates into an All-Star appearance. Meanwhile, George's projected production on the back half of his contract would be more typical of an average starter like Jonas Valanciunas (6.9 WARP in 2016-17).

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/stor...l-george-trade

[lewro]

No idea where that stat is - probably behind a paywall.

The JV stat is from a Paul George Insider article a few days ago.



http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/stor...l-george-trade

Thx, thought it might be a pay wall

Via ESPN rpm stats Demarre is 4.66 (22nd among SFs) in "wins" vs 4.06 for JV (25th among C's) and bebe is 4.03 (26th).
On WS and WS/48 JV is like twice as good as Demarre.

Tbh I don't think we need the stats to tell us that JV is the better player. We're trying to sell his youth and potential vs downplaying Demarres age and injury.

[c-troop]

Thx, thought it might be a pay wall

Via ESPN rpm stats Demarre is 4.66 (22nd among SFs) in "wins" vs 4.06 for JV (25th among C's) and bebe is 4.03 (26th).
On WS and WS/48 JV is like twice as good as Demarre.

Tbh I don't think we need the stats to tell us that JV is the better player. We're trying to sell his youth and potential vs downplaying Demarres age and injury.

WARP = (Win% - RL) * (Min/48)

'Therefore, I adjust replacement level (using the Goal Seek function in Excel) to match the total marginal wins produced by the entire league above 10 wins per game (adjusted for the percentage of the schedule complete during the season). In practice, this generally produces a replacement-level winning percentage of around .415, or 83 percent of league average. This is similar to the 80 percent figure used by Baseball Prospectus and often used by Football Outsiders in other sports.'

http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html

can you link your stats please.

[lewro]

Rpm, wins, etc is here:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/r...INS/position/9

BPM, WS, etc is here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...valanjo01.html

Anyone that's an insider can search warp (I guess?) but I am not an insider.

[3inthekeon]

One thing with Win Shares is it really favours efficient shooting rebounders. That's why it consistently has guys like JV and Enes Kanter as better than guys like Millsap, George, Draymond.

[lewro]

One thing with Win Shares is it really favours efficient shooting rebounders. That's why it consistently has guys like JV and Enes Kanter as better than guys like Millsap, George, Draymond.

So you're poking holes in the stat that looks most favourably on JV!?
I'm gonna pretend I didn't read that
Nah, he was a top 5 pick for us and he's a very good player but imo something has to give. Maybe Demarre gets moved, maybe Casey gets fired, maybe JV hits 3s/improves D/gets touches, maybe yak gets stronger/D rebounds, maybe Kennedy Meeks is somewhat ready? Lots of options, not just Demarre or bust imo.

[3inthekeon]

So you're poking holes in the stat that looks most favourably on JV!?

I've had the argument with Dan that WS seems to be outdated. In the meantime Justin Willard at Nylon Calculus also said the same thing in one of his posts..

[3inthekeon]

Can DeMarre be waived and stretched? I know Kleiza was stretched by Masai in 2013. How often can this be done?

[lewro]

Can DeMarre be waived and stretched? I know Kleiza was stretched by Masai in 2013. How often can this be done?

Someone that has read the new CBA like Dan or Blake would know. Iirc, last I looked at cbafaq (which is outdated now?), we don't have any stretch on the books so we can do it but Demarre would be on our books for like $6-7m over 4 yrs. I think that's a rough outline of the old CBA?

[lewro]

Also, someone could fully (not likely) or partially pick up his money so that could lower our bill.
That's not an option I'd imagine masai would feel good about presenting to MLSE.

[3inthekeon]

I would argue that Dallas may also be a decent landing point for JV, if necessary. I would like to see an offence that actually incorporates JV more. If we are looking for change with the same pieces, the glaring change needs to be using JV more.

I would think they do what they can to keep RFA Noel. If Noel stays, Dallas isn't going to pay $16 million/year for a backup centre.

[Hotshot]

Hey I have looked across several sites and mock drafts and saw that almost all gave the Raptors an A or A+ for selecting OG.

The one exception was NBA draft.net....that was a rather poor draft grade considering the author stated many positive attributes to the pick except for his injury and questionable offensive game.

"C-
23. OG Anunoby
Raptor first rounder OG Anunoby’s physical tools are what jumps off the page, with his 7’2” wingspan and leaping ability. His skillset is somewhat limited, especially on the offensive end, but he is versatile enough to play either forward position and can has the potential to be a superb perimeter defender. Ultimately, his medical concerns make him a risky selection. The Raptors already have scoring punch in DeRozan and Lowry so Anunoby’s potential as a defensive stopper makes him a solid fit. There’s still a lot of risk involved in taking Anunoby, but as one of the more balanced teams in the league, they can afford to take a flier on a guy like Anunoby. I'm not sold on him being proficient enough offensively to be a big contributor whether healthy or unhealthy, but there were plenty of "sexy bloggers" that loved this pick."

[Rudy Bargnani]

Hey I have looked across several sites and mock drafts and saw that almost all gave the Raptors an A or A+ for selecting OG.

The one exception was NBA draft.net....that was a rather poor draft grade considering the author stated many positive attributes to the pick except for his injury and questionable offensive game.

"C-
23. OG Anunoby
Raptor first rounder OG Anunoby’s physical tools are what jumps off the page, with his 7’2” wingspan and leaping ability. His skillset is somewhat limited, especially on the offensive end, but he is versatile enough to play either forward position and can has the potential to be a superb perimeter defender. Ultimately, his medical concerns make him a risky selection. The Raptors already have scoring punch in DeRozan and Lowry so Anunoby’s potential as a defensive stopper makes him a solid fit. There’s still a lot of risk involved in taking Anunoby, but as one of the more balanced teams in the league, they can afford to take a flier on a guy like Anunoby. I'm not sold on him being proficient enough offensively to be a big contributor whether healthy or unhealthy, but there were plenty of "sexy bloggers" that loved this pick."

I aspire to be known as "a sexy blogger" .

[lewro]

That site sucks tho. The author seems to mostly follow pac12. I think the best scouts follow these kids for several yrs to all the hoop summit, portsmouth, etc tournaments.
Nbadraft.net outlook is mostly a criticism of the sexy bloggers (maybe bc they get all the site hits?). And their comp is kevon looney. I don't really find that useful analysis. A site like DX has excellent breakdowns with video evidence. .net uses highschool mixtapes from YouTube, posted by someone else, without breakdown. They could be right but their opinion doesn't seem well informed to me.

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/og-anunoby