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Thread: Raptors 2016-17 WOWYs

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    Default Raptors 2016-17 WOWYs

    Hi all

    I posted something similar to this last year as well. I've written a full article, but I'll post the data and some quick conclusions (though sharing the data is more the point) here for anyone who just wants that. The article has explanations and fuller discussion/conclusions in it, if interested.

    http://www.raptorshq.com/2017/1/31/1...s-numbers-game

    A common approach in stats for several sports, most predominantly hockey but also catching on with basketball of late, is to judge player's impacts on their teammates. This is done by looking at each player's performance with and without each of their teammates on the floor (known as WOWY’s, or With or Without You stats). What we'll do is look at the team's net rating (point differential per 100 possessions) while these players are on the floor together (and apart) to judge that impact.
    First, the "with" data set — how the team performs with certain pairings of players on the floor. The following chart shows each player with significant playing time so far on the left column, and the players they have been paired with along the top row. The numbers in the chart are the team's on-court net rating with that pairing on the floor — colour coded from very good (green) through average for the team (yellow) to terrible (red). The values for players “with” themselves is simply the player’s overall on-court net rating.


    To really get an idea of who is actually impacting each others’ play though, we also need to look at how each player does away from each teammate. The following chart shows the same thing as the above chart, but without each teammate instead of with them.


    But what we really want is the net impact each player has on each teammate. So we find the difference between the player’s performance with each teammate and his performance without that teammate, and we get the following results.


    Three conclusions:

    1. Play Siakam next to JV, Carroll, DD or Lowry as little as possible, but definitely never with more than one at the same time, let alone with all of them (and ideally literally zero minutes ever with Carroll or Valanciunas). Find him time with the bench units if Sullinger is still unable to play basketball (although I should note: the one player Sullinger has a positive “with” value beside is Nogueira, so if you have to use him, use him exclusively as the bench PF in Siakam’s place).

    2. Start Patterson, and don’t stop. He really unlocks the other starters’ games, and the bench unit’s productivity seems far less reliant on his presence.

    3. Play Joseph as little as possible with DeRozan and Valanciunas. DeRozan is hard to avoid (maybe try some no-star bench units for short stretches to see if they survive — it’s not like the DeRozan plus bench unit is holding its own, anyway), but never put JV out there with Joseph, and certainly not with both Joseph and DeRozan. Save his time for playing with the starters, who should also be the closers, by the way, since Joseph has struggled so much all year.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran KeonClark's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Hi all

    I posted something similar to this last year as well. I've written a full article, but I'll post the data and some quick conclusions (though sharing the data is more the point) here for anyone who just wants that. The article has explanations and fuller discussion/conclusions in it, if interested.

    http://www.raptorshq.com/2017/1/31/1...s-numbers-game















    Three conclusions:
    Looking at those numbers for Joseph, do you find it realistic to conclude that Wright could probably do the same job for 1/4th the price?
    11/20/16 Lest we forget - The Sacramento Screw Job.
    We will not go quietly in the night. We will rage against the dying light. We will study every buzzer beater with intensified might, because somethin with the NBA doesn't smell right.

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    Judging by colors alone, does this imply that Lowry/Ross/Powell/Patterson/Noguiera should be our starting lineup?

    JV & DeMar haters/lovers unite!

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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Judging by colors alone, does this imply that Lowry/Ross/Powell/Patterson/Noguiera should be our starting lineup?

    JV & DeMar haters/lovers unite!
    None of the numbers account for quality of opposition, for the record.

    I recommend reading the vaunted history of Tyler Hansbrough, god of backup centres, who had the best on-court offensive, defensive and net rating on that 2014-15 team, by a pretty significant margin.

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    Quote KeonClark wrote: View Post
    Looking at those numbers for Joseph, do you find it realistic to conclude that Wright could probably do the same job for 1/4th the price?
    I'm getting to be more comfortable with the idea of moving Joseph out as part of a trade, that's for sure. Not sure what happened to him compared to last year (maybe the system is less compatible with his strengths?) but he's not really turning his early struggles around like I expected.

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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Judging by colors alone, does this imply that Lowry/Ross/Powell/Patterson/Noguiera should be our starting lineup?

    JV & DeMar haters/lovers unite!
    What it tells me: everybody is good when they're with Lowry, everybody is bad when lowry sits
    11/20/16 Lest we forget - The Sacramento Screw Job.
    We will not go quietly in the night. We will rage against the dying light. We will study every buzzer beater with intensified might, because somethin with the NBA doesn't smell right.

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    Quote KeonClark wrote: View Post
    What it tells me: everybody is good when they're with Lowry, everybody is bad when lowry sits
    Except Siakam! The guy Casey stuck in the starting lineup most of the season...

    It's more pronounced for some players than others as well - for example, JV and Pat (and even Carroll) do sooo much better with Lowry. More reason to start them together.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    None of the numbers account for quality of opposition, for the record.

    I recommend reading the vaunted history of Tyler Hansbrough, god of backup centres, who had the best on-court offensive, defensive and net rating on that 2014-15 team, by a pretty significant margin.
    Still, I'd love to see that lineup get minutes together and some time to gel. It's the prototypical modern NBA lineup. 4 shooters + 1 roll man. 5 mobile defenders and every guy can guard at least 2 positions. Even Bebe can shoot the odd 3.

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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Judging by colors alone, does this imply that Lowry/Ross/Powell/Patterson/Noguiera should be our starting lineup?

    JV & DeMar haters/lovers unite!
    The funny thing is: I was wondering who would be the first to say this one. It's essentially the Lowry + Bench line up minus CoJo and plus Powell.
    "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
    "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy
    "We Ride with Lowry. We Die with Derozan" - Golden

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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    Still, I'd love to see that lineup get minutes together and some time to gel. It's the prototypical modern NBA lineup. 4 shooters + 1 roll man. 5 mobile defenders and every guy can guard at least 2 positions. Even Bebe can shoot the odd 3.
    Yeah, they've played only 6 minutes together so far. Heck, that lineup might actually be one to try with CoJo in Lowry's place (there is no shortage of great lineups with Lowry in them, it's when he sits that's the trick).

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Except Siakam! The guy Casey stuck in the starting lineup most of the season...

    It's more pronounced for some players than others as well - for example, JV and Pat (and even Carroll) do sooo much better with Lowry. More reason to start them together.
    That part is what surprised me most. If I remember last year; even Scola (while not good next Lowry) was still better next to him than anyone else.
    "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
    "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy
    "We Ride with Lowry. We Die with Derozan" - Golden

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    So the best solution is to clone Lowry so that we always have one fresh Lowry on the court at all times.

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    Man those are some pretty looking charts.. I might actually have to read the words now!

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    Soo.. Joseph sucks

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    I'm impressed that so many players are net-positively impacted by playing with Ross this season, except for Patterson, which I find ironic.

    My idea from the Lineups You'd Like to See thread would also seem to be a pretty decent lineup according to these stats: JV, Patterson, Carroll, Ross and Lowry.

    It would be interesting to compare these player-to-player analysis to the full 5-man lineup stats.

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I'm impressed that so many players are net-positively impacted by playing with Ross this season, except for Patterson, which I find ironic.

    My idea from the Lineups You'd Like to See thread would also seem to be a pretty decent lineup according to these stats: JV, Patterson, Carroll, Ross and Lowry.

    It would be interesting to compare these player-to-player analysis to the full 5-man lineup stats.
    That actually was another line up I wanted to see (granted I had Powell in place of Carroll strictly to have another ball handler there as both Powell and Ross are better at it then him). I really think it could do some damage.
    "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
    "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy
    "We Ride with Lowry. We Die with Derozan" - Golden

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    The wowys don't lie! Lowry is awesome and Cory sucks! It'd black and white, night and day
    11/20/16 Lest we forget - The Sacramento Screw Job.
    We will not go quietly in the night. We will rage against the dying light. We will study every buzzer beater with intensified might, because somethin with the NBA doesn't smell right.

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    So this basically confirms that Lowry is really fucking good.
    "Stay steamy"

    - Kobe

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I'm impressed that so many players are net-positively impacted by playing with Ross this season, except for Patterson, which I find ironic.

    My idea from the Lineups You'd Like to See thread would also seem to be a pretty decent lineup according to these stats: JV, Patterson, Carroll, Ross and Lowry.

    It would be interesting to compare these player-to-player analysis to the full 5-man lineup stats.
    I'll be following up next week with three and five man unit analysis built off of these findings.

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    Another post like this Dan and you'll finally surpass mcHappy for all-time likes.

    Great work
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