Everything 2017 Off-Season

[DanH]

If I had to bet money, it would 45 - 47 win range. But I'm not an optimist by nature.

I think 50 is a perfectly reasonable expectation of this group again. Possibly more if the youth really steps up. But 60 is a gigantic ask. Mid-fifties would be a very, very successful season.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I'm going to go out on a huge limb here and say... Serge Ibaka, the blockbuster deadline deal and 65M re-signing of a couple weeks ago? Huge upgrade over Siakam.

Powell over Carroll qualifies too, but that presumes Casey will start him...

We had Serge Ibaka last season.

[DanH]

We had Serge Ibaka last season.

Not at this time last season, which he and every else is reasonably comparing to.

[DanH]

Like, we had three regular season games with Lowry and Ibaka starting. Seems kind of ridiculous to suggest that as encompassing of "last season's starting lineup."

[3inthekeon]

What's our cap situation now that Miles wasn't a sign and trade?

[DanH]

What's our cap situation now that Miles wasn't a sign and trade?

Basically the same, we just don't have the MLE anymore. Not that we could have used much of it, being so close to the hard cap. The BAE that we still have is close to how much room under the hard cap we have (3.4M to 4.9M optimistically, while the BAE is 3.3M).

[LJ2]

Which big improvement was there to the starting lineup?

Ibaka at PF and from the start for the season as well as Miles (likely imo) at SF

[GLF]

I'm going to go out on a huge limb here and say... Serge Ibaka, the blockbuster deadline deal and 65M re-signing of a couple weeks ago? Huge upgrade over Siakam.

Powell over Carroll qualifies too, but that presumes Casey will start him...

Even if Miles starts that's an upgrade from Carroll. Not as big but still an upgrade

[LJ2]

Looking back at our losses in the east last season, I can't believe we lost that many games to Orlando. I'm pretty sure we should get a couple of those back this season. We may sweep a whole bunch of teams this year if we stay healthy..yea needs to be in the optimists thread

[3inthekeon]

Basically the same, we just don't have the MLE anymore. Not that we could have used much of it, being so close to the hard cap. The BAE that we still have is close to how much room under the hard cap we have (3.4M to 4.9M optimistically, while the BAE is 3.3M).

So still a bit confused. Let's say Miles doesn't get the full MLE, maybe 8.35 instead of 8.4. Are we still hard capped?

[KeonClark]

Looking back at our losses in the east last season, I can't believe we lost that many games to Orlando. I'm pretty sure we should get a couple of those back this season. We may sweep a whole bunch of teams this year if we stay healthy..yea needs to be in the optimists thread

Even against the west you can almost pick up more wins. The powerhouses like Houston, san antonio and golden state were already extremely tough match ups. Okc was tough for us already. But now the clippers, the jazz got worse..the league just basically got more top heavy. But a lot of teams have slipped that were near us or behind us

[DanH]

So still a bit confused. Let's say Miles doesn't get the full MLE, maybe 8.35 instead of 8.4. Are we still hard capped?

Yes, because we have to use the MLE to sign him. We don't have cap space, so we need one exception or another to sign him.

He won't get 8.4M, by the way. First year salary should be about 7.9M.

We could use 1M of the MLE and be hardcapped.

If he signed for 3/16 like Patterson did, we could sign him with the tax-payer's MLE, and wouldn't be hard capped. But we gave him more than that.

[planetmars]

So still a bit confused. Let's say Miles doesn't get the full MLE, maybe 8.35 instead of 8.4. Are we still hard capped?

According to Coon's cap we'd still be hard capped:
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q20

In other words, when a team is below the Apron and uses its Bi-Annual exception, receives a player who is signed-and-traded, or uses its Mid-Level exception to sign a player to a contract larger than allowed by the Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, the team becomes hard-capped at the Apron for the remainder of that season. This eliminates any potential loophole where a team could first use one of these exceptions and subsequently add salary to go above the Apron, since the reverse -- adding salary first and then using the exception -- would be illegal.

... since Miles' contract will be more than the taxpayer mid-level (about $5M), we'd be hard capped at the apron ($125M)

[Scraptor]

What's really damning is that Carroll, who was a 35 mpg player in the playoffs for Atlanta, was reduced to just 15 mpg this past spring by Dwane Casey of all coaches. His drop off over the past two years has been steep.

Aside from all the on-court discussion is the contract status issue, which is huge. Contract + on-court means the market value for Miles is one Cory Joseph, the market value for Carroll is "we'll only take him if you throw in a 1st and a 2nd." Considering the Raptors needed to make some changes at least, getting the worst contract off the roster is a huge plus.

Not sure how this is a huge plus. We massively overpaid an almost-29-year old-role player who injured his knee six weeks prior, he did nothing for us for two years, and then we had to pay picks to get rid of him.

On a team-building scale that is worse than the Hedo Turkoglu signing.

Like it's great that he's not sucking up court space but the removal of his contract value has to be attached to the loss of the picks and the flexibility they provided. At best, from a sunk cost point of view and ignoring the past two years, it was neutral. Including our investment the whole thing was a disaster, a waste of time, money, capspace, and picks.

[Scraptor]

With the big improvements to the starting line up and how weak the East is this season, do you guys think we can scratch 60 wins this season? Aiming too high?

Vegas currently has us at 48.5, which sounds about right.

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...ba-win-totals/

Ibaka isn't that huge of an upgrade to the starting lineup given that he plays centre for long stretches and pushes JV to the bench. We'll still end up needing someone at the 4, and we lost our best piece in Patterson. We also lost CoJo, who played 2000 minutes, and his shoes may be harder to fill than we think. If Kyle goes down at all Wright will have a lot on his plate.

Miles has only once started more than 40 games in his 12 year career, and averaged 21 mpg. Expecting him to fill the gap at the 3/4 may be asking a lot.

I think 3inthekeon is right with about 45-47 wins. We are way less deep than last year, though, and any injuries could really burn us.