Everything Round 2: Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

[MixxAOR]

Cavs in 4

[Jclaw]

The only guess I've got for Irving is jersey number. Catch 22 is my favorite book and I'm too dumb to get the connection.

Great thread as usual OP.

Thx. Never even thought about the number. Here's a link you can check out to keep other people guessing if they want to.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C.I.D._Investigators

[Scraptor]

Thx. Never even thought about the number. Here's a link you can check out to keep other people guessing if they want to.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C.I.D._Investigators

Ah that is a good one. I am dumb.

[GOLDBLUM]

I wanna see Demar or Powell dunk on Lebron this round. That is all.

Gimme the series win, thanks.

[GOLDBLUM]

Cavs in 4

You don't want to believe at all.

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[Jclaw]

FWIW, both prediction models call for a game 7. While trends can play out over a season or even a series, anything can happen in one game. I'll call that a draw. That's crazy.

[Jclaw]

Yep! This team is built to match up with the Cavs - a dominant rebounder in JV to play against TT, a pair of rangy defensive PF's to take on Love and play backup C against Frye, two tough wing defenders in Tucker and Carroll to hound LBJ all game long, solid guard defenders off the bench in Powell and CoJo to hound their shooters, and two all star scorers at the positions of greatest weakness for the Cavs (Kyrie and Smith) and who love to attack in the PnR (where the Cavs' big men, Love and Frye in particular, are less than great).

If anyone in the East is going to beat LeBron, this Raps team makes the most sense to be the ones to do it.

Now I'm excited!

[Jclaw]

Maybe, the Raptors replace Carroll with Tucker in the starting line-up.

Here's the devil's advocate side. Lebron played 44 minutes per game against a team that scratched to make it into the playoffs. I can't see him playing less against the Raps. So, we need at least 44 minutes of guarding him. Tucker won't play that long. He averaged 25 mpg for the season and 24 mpg in the playoffs. Let's say he plays 30...or even 34. That leaves 10-14 minutes of guarding Lebron at some point in the game for someone else. Carroll has to soak up some of those minutes. Why not do it for 5-6 minutes to start the game to see if it's a good Carroll day? He did have some effective moments in the Bucks series. Wouldn't that be better than benching him for the first time in a while and then still have him cover Lebron for the same number of minutes anyways? Just a thought so we don't freak out when you see the starting lineup

[S.R.]

Here's the devil's advocate side. Lebron played 44 minutes per game against a team that scratched to make it into the playoffs. I can't see him playing less against the Raps. So, we need at least 44 minutes of guarding him. Tucker won't play that long. He averaged 25 mpg for the season and 24 mpg in the playoffs. Let's say he plays 30...or even 34. That leaves 10-14 minutes of guarding Lebron at some point in the game for someone else. Carroll has to soak up some of those minutes. Why not do it for 5-6 minutes to start the game to see if it's a good Carroll day? He did have some effective moments in the Bucks series. Wouldn't that be better than benching him for the first time in a while and then still have him cover Lebron for the same number of minutes anyways? Just a thought so we don't freak out when you see the starting lineup

I'd give him 20-25 minutes of Tucker, 10-15 minutes of Carroll, and 10 minutes of Patterson.

[DanH]

Here's the devil's advocate side. Lebron played 44 minutes per game against a team that scratched to make it into the playoffs. I can't see him playing less against the Raps. So, we need at least 44 minutes of guarding him. Tucker won't play that long. He averaged 25 mpg for the season and 24 mpg in the playoffs. Let's say he plays 30...or even 34. That leaves 10-14 minutes of guarding Lebron at some point in the game for someone else. Carroll has to soak up some of those minutes. Why not do it for 5-6 minutes to start the game to see if it's a good Carroll day? He did have some effective moments in the Bucks series. Wouldn't that be better than benching him for the first time in a while and then still have him cover Lebron for the same number of minutes anyways? Just a thought so we don't freak out when you see the starting lineup

Meh. As ever, it's a risk you let LBJ get going early and then he's hitting tough shots later in the game against better defence.

But hey, maybe it plays into the Raptors' hands, they love playing from behind. Or maybe Carroll, against all evidence, does a great job on LeBron.

[slaw]

I actually really believe we can beat this team in 6 or 7 games.

Not in 7. Need to get 1 of the first two and then hold serve at home. Cavs aren't losing a game 7 at home. Need to get them before that. Raps really needed home court for this series....

[slaw]

The other thing to note is the number of shots attempts. In Game 5 against the Bucks, where they scored 118 points, the Raptors had 71 FGA. The significantly higher number of FGA means the Cavs didn't go as deep into the shot clock as the Raptors (and may also reflect the Pacers offense/defense).

Will mean the Raptors' defense will have to be locked in from the moment the Cavs cross the time line. Similar to the Bucks, the Raptors will also have to be wary of the Cavs' transition.

Raps will have to play 'faster' to beat the Cavs. Tempo/pace/speed or whatever you want to call it. You can't beat the top teams playing like 40 year olds at the local YMCA. Cavs aren't going to slow down to a crawl like the Bucks did - they will be aggressive against Toronto.

[Scraptor]

Hasn't 538 been horrible at predicting playoff matchups?

The CARM-ELO model is garbage. Spend ten minutes digging through its assumptions and you'll see why.

Not to mention that it isn't even up to date. It still has Serge Ibaka on the Magic.

We have a decent chance at taking the Cavs but I think this is one of those series that will come down to coaching, and my hope is that Lue shoots himself in the foot somehow.

[Maury]

Raps in 6. Put PJ on Lebron, make him work, never leave any shooters. Play LBJ and Kyrie straight up. Powell can slow down Kyrie. Cleveland has no one who can guard Demar or Kyle unless they put LBJ on one of them but that'll be a tough decision for Lue as LBJ will likely be playing 41-43 mpg and will want to save his energy on D. I like our chances.


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[Scraptor]

Meh. As ever, it's a risk you let LBJ get going early and then he's hitting tough shots later in the game against better defence.

But hey, maybe it plays into the Raptors' hands, they love playing from behind. Or maybe Carroll, against all evidence, does a great job on LeBron.

Yeah we can't afford to start Carroll imo. There's just too much at stake.

Another question is whether Jonas starts against TT or not. This is going to be a really interesting chess (checkers?) match.