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Thread: What are your realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for the upcoming season?

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Scraptor's Avatar
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    Default What are your realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for the upcoming season?

    Realistic in that we won't somehow acquire Boogie Cousins for a couple of second round picks.

    It's the dog days of the offseason and we might as well debate something.

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    Best case: Raptors' young guys step into roles right off the bat, Raptors rack up 55-60 wins, place 1st in regular season EC standings, get to ECFs, LeBron shows his age, and Raps get the honour of getting crushed by the Warriors. LeBron leaves for the West, and the Raptors string together three consecutive Finals appearances as Powell and JV both grow into borderline stars.

    Worst case: Young guys struggle, and injuries derail the season for a key starter or two. Struggling youth is forced into a larger role, team drops to roughly .500, and Masai pulls the plug early, finding trades for Lowry, DeMar, Ibaka and JV, and we get to suffer through a tank without ever seeing this group reach their peak.

    My guess: Most of the youth step in nicely, with a few hiccups and a couple minor injuries, and the Raptors have a low-mid-50's win total, placing somewhere 1-3 in the East. We make it to the ECFs (beating BOS on the way) and get snacked down again by LeBron, and pray that he leaves the conference in the summer.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    I like what has been happening with the young guys. I haven't checked the stats. But using the Mark 1 eyeball, by the end of the season I saw improvement in Yak, Norm, Delon, Pascal and Fred, such that I didn't cringe and at times was pleased with their play. Given the five months between the end of last season and the start of training camp, all of these guys will have had an opportunity to add to their games. Few other teams have such a corps of young talent that could all reasonably be expected to improve.

    It is hard for a guy who is in his late 20's, and who has been playing 15+ minutes a game to improve by even a couple of %. Guys in their early 20's, you should expect to see it.

    Ibaka right from the start of training camp and a month to get integrated with Lowry is significant.
    All of the video from the playoffs this past season.
    Norm's continued growth.
    Integration of Miles with a capable 3 pt shot, as opposed to the lack of PPat's threat from deep.
    Some mention from the Lithuanian National team staff of a seemingly faster Vale who has rededicated himself to the game
    And, as mentioned above, the young fellas growing into their roles.

    I think the loss of Joseph and the growth of Wright will almost be a wash.

    I expect 50+ wins and given their schedule could see a chance at 55.

    Worse case, an injury to one or more of their players (starters) handicaps the team for a dozen games and they win 45.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Best case: Raptors' young guys step into roles right off the bat, Raptors rack up 55-60 wins...
    I was still typing when your post came in. Pleased to see we were somewhat similar in terms of hopes for the young guys.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran MixxAOR's Avatar
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    Worst case: WW3 starts. NBA rendered pointless.

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    Here's my take. I'll put some odds on different things.

    In my opinion, Kyle and DeMar are at their ceilings, and we know what they're going to give us. So the key four guys are Ibaka, Powell, Siakam, and JV.

    Poeltl will become vital if JV is dealt. Bruno and OG can't be relied upon to really give us anything; if they do give us something it's just a bonus.

    Best case:
    -Ibaka is more comfortable and gives us above-average minutes at the 4/5. (Odds: 20%)
    -Powell takes a step up and solidifies our wing rotation with DeMar and Miles. (50%)
    -Siakam's BBIQ takes a leap and he too provides us with quality minutes next to Ibaka when we go small. (30%?)
    -JV's leanness and quickness translates into better D and more playing time. (30%)

    If the right combinations of these things happen I could see us win 55 games. (~10%)

    Bonuses:
    -Poeltl steps up in a big way and shows flashes of legit starter quality. Or either gains value as a trade chip himself, or makes JV expendable.
    -Bruno comes in and stuns us as a stretch 4.
    -OG comes in and proves an instant impact, mainly on D.

    With no bonuses I think our best case is an ECF berth. With some bonuses we have a very slim shot at making the Finals. (2-3%?)

    Worst case:
    -Ibaka regresses again and becomes an albatross contract. (20%)
    -Powell doesn't make any progress and languishes behind Miles. (20%)
    -Siakam still doesn't figure out positioning and we have a hole at the four when we go small. Bruno doesn't give us anything, and OG is too raw to help (or flounders after missing training camp). (30%)
    -JV spends most 4th quarters on the bench. (30%)

    Worst combination possible I think we win 41 games, barring injuries. (10%).

    Extra bad luck:
    -Jakob projects out as a bench big.
    -Bruno gets pissy and disappears to Brazil.
    -OG gets hooked on maple syrup and goes on multiple sugar benders.

    If everything goes wrong we miss the playoffs. The bright side would be that the pick we gave Brooklyn is lottery protected, so we'd get our pick this year and delay giving our pick to Brooklyn till 2019.

    Middle case
    Some combination of progress and stalling from all our young pieces. Ibaka is decent but not a difference-maker. JV (either via his play or how he is used) frustrates again. We win 47-48 games and exit in the second round.

    Wildcards:
    -Injuries
    -Trades

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    Raptors Republic Veteran 007's Avatar
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    Best case: Young guys step up and fill their roles well, one or two even maybe surpassing anyone's expectations. Ibaka fully gels with Lowry and DD. JV improves as a rim protector.

    Boston struggles to integrate all their new guys early, and even after they gel rebounding and defense remain large concerns which destroy them in the playoffs. For Cleveland, Thomas doesn't come back until well into the season, and isn't the same player, meaning even more pressure on LeBron.

    Raptors reach the ECF against Cleveland and win in 7 as LeBron finally shows fatigue and Lowry and DD play like they did in the regular season. Warriors win title in 4.


    Worst case: the loss of 2Pat, Tucker and Cojo hurt with the growing pains of the young guys. Lowry-DD-Ibaka don't gel as well as we hoped. Raps end up 4th or 5th and are in a dogfight in the first round. They are eliminated in the second round by either Cleveland (with an angry and just as good Thomas) or Boston (with an evolved alpha-dog Irving and anchored by a rim-protector they acquired mid-season).

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote MixxAOR wrote: View Post
    Worst case: WW3 starts. NBA rendered pointless.

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    Raptors Republic Icon rocwell's Avatar
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    Quote MixxAOR wrote: View Post
    Worst case: WW3 starts. NBA rendered pointless.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    Barring injuries or trades, I can see the team finishing anywhere from 1st to 5th in the standings. The top five in the east should be around 50+ wins, if the Bucks take a step forward.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Demographic Shift's Avatar
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    Best case...No one gets hurt for an extended period of time. Both Powell and Miles provide consistent 3 point shooting. Nurse tweaks his offence and the ball moves more than last year. Wright, Siakam, Poeltl show they are NBA ready rotation players. The seeding works in the Raps favour. Whoever faces the F22's in the ECF is beat up.
    52 to 55 wins and an Eastern Conference title. Stephen A. Smith is refused entry to Canada due to NAFTA changes.

    Worst Case...There is a significant injury to one or two of the top three players that results in 4 month stays on IR. Miles inexplicably loses his touch. One of those injuries occurs in early April.
    40 to 42 wins. Every playoff game the Raptors get is officiated by Ed Malloy AND Tony Brothers. Game 7 in the first round sees Malloy double T up the one healthy AllStar we have at the 3 minute mark of the first quarter.
    Last edited by Demographic Shift; Tue Sep 5th, 2017 at 10:26 AM.

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