The 2-man combination of Ibaka and JV in the starting lineup is leading to by far our worst defensive lineups. They are so bad defensively, that even though they are decent on offense, these lineups are hugely negative. In fact they are the only two regularly used lineups that even have a negative net rating on this team.
Just for reference to start here, the Cleveland Cavaliers as a team have the worst defensive rating in the league with 108.9. (A higher dRTG is worse for those who don't know, although I think everyone here knows, this is a pretty smart/well-informed forum).
Lowry-DeRozan-Powell-Ibaka-JV = 111.5 dRTG and -3.4 netRTG
Lowry-DeRozan-Anunoby-Ibaka-JV = 121.5 dRTG and -10.0 netRTG
Ibaka and JV as a two man pairing have a 115 dRTG this season in 229 minutes played. It is the worst dRTG of any of our top 25 most used two man pairings this year. The next 3 worst defensively are DeRozan-JV (113.9), Lowry-JV (113.6), and Powell-JV (111.0). I think you can see the trend.
The reality is the lineup needs to change, and the backcourt isn't the issue and neither are they going to be removed from the starting 5. Powell and Anunoby are the two best defenders on the team on the perimeter so one of them has to start at the 3 spot so that's non-negotiable. So the starting 1-2-3 will be Lowry/DeRozan/Anunoby or Powell for the season. What needs to change is the Ibaka-JV pairing. Now some will argue that it's Ibaka who needs to come off the bench. Despite the fact that JV is younger, already plays bench minutes (only playing about 20 minutes per game right now) and is less likely to affect team chemistry negatively by being moved to the bench in a 6th man role; I'll present the numerical evidence that he and not Ibaka should be benched.
So if we're moving Ibaka or JV to the bench it'd be Siakam who comes into the starting lineup at the 4 spot with either of the former two playing the 5. The pairing of Siakam-Ibaka at the 4/5 has a 106.0 dRTG and +4.7netRTG so far this season. The pairing of Siakam-Valanciunas has only played 42 minutes this year, but it has a 110.3 dRTG and -5.3 netRTG, which is right around what it had last year in 591 minutes (109.8 dRTG and -4.0 netRTG). So clearly the Siakam-Ibaka lineup is better. In fact it's even slightly better on the glass with a 48.2 REB% compared to a 47.7 REB% so the myth that we desperately need JV's rebounding doesn't hold true there. Actually I want to talk about that a bit as well:
JV is our best rebounder, but he doesn't actually make the team better on the glass overall when he's on the floor. The reason for that is that even though he wins his own individual rebounding battles, his poor defense often leaves several players out of position defensively, which means they also aren't even in position to rebound. This is why our defensive rebound rate is exactly the same with JV on the court (76.4%) as it is with him off the court (76.4%) this season.
Building off that I want to discuss this notion that Ibaka would get bullied inside and worn down at center. I disagree. If anything, he's getting bullied at PF where he lacks the speed to handle most of the stretch 4s or combo forwards that teams play at those positions nowadays. That means getting killed off the drive, beaten to spots for spot-up or catch and shoot jumpshots, etc. It also means he gets pulled out of the paint where his best asset defensively (his ability to alter or block shots) is virtually eliminated; making him a net negative defensive player at power forward.
Now at the draft combine, Ibaka measured at just under 6'11 in shoes with 7'3 wingspan and 9'3 standing reach. He was weighed in at 228, but that's when he looked like he does in the banner picture here: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Serge-Ibaka-1302/ not the ripped machine that he is now. I'd guess he's probably around 250lbs right now. Myles Turner who starts at center for the Pacers is just under 7'0 with a 7'4 wingspan and 9'4 standing reach, and much skinnier than Serge. Yet he is able to play center night in night out. Thon Maker starts at center for Milwaukee with a 9'2 standing reach and very skinny frame. Tristan Thompson is 6'8 with a 9'0 standing reach and starts at center for the Cavaliers. The Wizards start Gortat who's 7'0 with a 7'2 wingspan.
I could keep going but the idea is that there aren't a huge number of these physically dominating centers that could cause Ibaka problems. There are a few, specifically: Drummond (7'0, 280lbs, 7'7 wingspan), Embiid (7'0 not sure about his current weight, 7'6 wingspan), Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins who could cause him issues defensively and on the glass, but that's about it. That doesn't warrant starting Valanciunas, when there are so many more guys that cause him problems (like any center with the least bit of mobility or skill on offense to shoot the three, which is like 70% of them).
So I propose the new starting lineup be: Lowry-DeMar-Anunoby-Siakam-Ibaka. The 10 man rotation would be completed with Miles, Powell, Valanciunas, Wright and Bebe or Poeltl. Here's how I'd handle the rotation on a minutes basis roughly, while trying to keep everyone's minutes about the same as they are now. I'm putting FVV in, but when Wright comes back he'd take his minutes.
PG: Lowry (33)/FVV (15)
SG: DeRozan (35)/Powell (13)
SF: Anunoby (15)/Miles (23)/Powell (10)
PF: Siakam (28)/Anunoby(12)/Ibaka (8)
C: Ibaka (20)/Valanciunas(20)/Poeltl (8)
I'd try to stagger the minutes in such a way that Ibaka is only playing PF when Poeltl is in at center. Additionally, JV would be on the floor for longer spurts, and we'd try to have him mainly play with the Lowry+Bench unit as much as possible and with Siakam or Anunoby at the 4 next to him. The minute distribution for the team would look like:
DeMar: 35
Lowry: 33
Ibaka: 28
Siakam: 28
Anunoby: 27
Miles: 23
Powell: 23
Wright/FVV: 15
Poeltl/Bebe: 8
Just for reference to start here, the Cleveland Cavaliers as a team have the worst defensive rating in the league with 108.9. (A higher dRTG is worse for those who don't know, although I think everyone here knows, this is a pretty smart/well-informed forum).
Lowry-DeRozan-Powell-Ibaka-JV = 111.5 dRTG and -3.4 netRTG
Lowry-DeRozan-Anunoby-Ibaka-JV = 121.5 dRTG and -10.0 netRTG
Ibaka and JV as a two man pairing have a 115 dRTG this season in 229 minutes played. It is the worst dRTG of any of our top 25 most used two man pairings this year. The next 3 worst defensively are DeRozan-JV (113.9), Lowry-JV (113.6), and Powell-JV (111.0). I think you can see the trend.
The reality is the lineup needs to change, and the backcourt isn't the issue and neither are they going to be removed from the starting 5. Powell and Anunoby are the two best defenders on the team on the perimeter so one of them has to start at the 3 spot so that's non-negotiable. So the starting 1-2-3 will be Lowry/DeRozan/Anunoby or Powell for the season. What needs to change is the Ibaka-JV pairing. Now some will argue that it's Ibaka who needs to come off the bench. Despite the fact that JV is younger, already plays bench minutes (only playing about 20 minutes per game right now) and is less likely to affect team chemistry negatively by being moved to the bench in a 6th man role; I'll present the numerical evidence that he and not Ibaka should be benched.
So if we're moving Ibaka or JV to the bench it'd be Siakam who comes into the starting lineup at the 4 spot with either of the former two playing the 5. The pairing of Siakam-Ibaka at the 4/5 has a 106.0 dRTG and +4.7netRTG so far this season. The pairing of Siakam-Valanciunas has only played 42 minutes this year, but it has a 110.3 dRTG and -5.3 netRTG, which is right around what it had last year in 591 minutes (109.8 dRTG and -4.0 netRTG). So clearly the Siakam-Ibaka lineup is better. In fact it's even slightly better on the glass with a 48.2 REB% compared to a 47.7 REB% so the myth that we desperately need JV's rebounding doesn't hold true there. Actually I want to talk about that a bit as well:
JV is our best rebounder, but he doesn't actually make the team better on the glass overall when he's on the floor. The reason for that is that even though he wins his own individual rebounding battles, his poor defense often leaves several players out of position defensively, which means they also aren't even in position to rebound. This is why our defensive rebound rate is exactly the same with JV on the court (76.4%) as it is with him off the court (76.4%) this season.
Building off that I want to discuss this notion that Ibaka would get bullied inside and worn down at center. I disagree. If anything, he's getting bullied at PF where he lacks the speed to handle most of the stretch 4s or combo forwards that teams play at those positions nowadays. That means getting killed off the drive, beaten to spots for spot-up or catch and shoot jumpshots, etc. It also means he gets pulled out of the paint where his best asset defensively (his ability to alter or block shots) is virtually eliminated; making him a net negative defensive player at power forward.
Now at the draft combine, Ibaka measured at just under 6'11 in shoes with 7'3 wingspan and 9'3 standing reach. He was weighed in at 228, but that's when he looked like he does in the banner picture here: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Serge-Ibaka-1302/ not the ripped machine that he is now. I'd guess he's probably around 250lbs right now. Myles Turner who starts at center for the Pacers is just under 7'0 with a 7'4 wingspan and 9'4 standing reach, and much skinnier than Serge. Yet he is able to play center night in night out. Thon Maker starts at center for Milwaukee with a 9'2 standing reach and very skinny frame. Tristan Thompson is 6'8 with a 9'0 standing reach and starts at center for the Cavaliers. The Wizards start Gortat who's 7'0 with a 7'2 wingspan.
I could keep going but the idea is that there aren't a huge number of these physically dominating centers that could cause Ibaka problems. There are a few, specifically: Drummond (7'0, 280lbs, 7'7 wingspan), Embiid (7'0 not sure about his current weight, 7'6 wingspan), Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins who could cause him issues defensively and on the glass, but that's about it. That doesn't warrant starting Valanciunas, when there are so many more guys that cause him problems (like any center with the least bit of mobility or skill on offense to shoot the three, which is like 70% of them).
So I propose the new starting lineup be: Lowry-DeMar-Anunoby-Siakam-Ibaka. The 10 man rotation would be completed with Miles, Powell, Valanciunas, Wright and Bebe or Poeltl. Here's how I'd handle the rotation on a minutes basis roughly, while trying to keep everyone's minutes about the same as they are now. I'm putting FVV in, but when Wright comes back he'd take his minutes.
PG: Lowry (33)/FVV (15)
SG: DeRozan (35)/Powell (13)
SF: Anunoby (15)/Miles (23)/Powell (10)
PF: Siakam (28)/Anunoby(12)/Ibaka (8)
C: Ibaka (20)/Valanciunas(20)/Poeltl (8)
I'd try to stagger the minutes in such a way that Ibaka is only playing PF when Poeltl is in at center. Additionally, JV would be on the floor for longer spurts, and we'd try to have him mainly play with the Lowry+Bench unit as much as possible and with Siakam or Anunoby at the 4 next to him. The minute distribution for the team would look like:
DeMar: 35
Lowry: 33
Ibaka: 28
Siakam: 28
Anunoby: 27
Miles: 23
Powell: 23
Wright/FVV: 15
Poeltl/Bebe: 8
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