Valanciunas needs to come off the bench.

[DanH]

I thinks that's JV's trade value right now though---an early 2nd round pick and a similar contract.

Agreed, that is likely his trade value. Hence my lack of interest in trading him.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

The question for Casey is whether he needs to make more changes to his starting lineup. The combination of Jonas Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka up front is not working. The Raptors have a net rating of plus-0.5 in the 287 minutes the two have been on the floor this season, the worst of any of their top-21 two-man pairings in terms of minutes played. The two big men were even worse together last season, especially in the playoffs. Toronto began their series with Milwaukee and Cleveland starting both, and ended each with Valanciunas on the bench.

Supersized frontcourts like Valanciunas and Ibaka have a hard time keeping up with the increasing speed of the NBA game. The Bucks exposed them by trapping Lowry and DeRozan when they came off screens, forcing them to give up the ball and daring the Raptors big men to make plays in four-on-three situations, a role neither was comfortable in. Valanciunas is a deliberate player who likes to back down his opponents in the post, while Ibaka has never expanded his game beyond spotting up and making straight-line drives at the basket. The two combine to average only 1.3 assists per game, and it’s hard to run a ball-movement-heavy offense with two frontcourt players who can’t make plays.

At this stage in his career, Ibaka is more effective as a center. Playing at power forward means he has to spend most of the game chasing smaller players around the 3-point line. The position has changed around him. His block rates have gone down in each of the past five seasons because he’s spending less time near the rim. Nor does he get the chance to use his size much on offense. Ibaka has posted up 12 times this season, and he has only 15 offensive rebounds. When he’s playing at the 5, he can focus more on protecting the rim, and his ability to space the floor while guarding bigger players allows the Raptors to put more skilled and athletic players around him.

Casey is in a tough spot because of the financial commitments Toronto has made to Ibaka and Valanciunas. The Raptors will likely have both players on the hook for the next two seasons, and neither would be comfortable coming off the bench. The Raptors have been trying to trade Valanciunas for a while, but there’s not much of a market for a traditional center owed as much as $50 million, depending on whether he picks up his player option for 2019–20. There’s no urgency to make a move. Toronto is the no. 3 seed in the East, and they have the third-best net rating (plus-7.6) in the league. They could muddle through in the regular season without changing their lineup. However, if they fall behind in a playoff series, Casey will likely bench Valanciunas, just like he did last season.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/1...ent-og-anunoby

Thought this would be of interest.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/1...ent-og-anunoby

Thought this would be of interest.

One of the problems I see is that Ibaka is not nearly as good as advertised. The problem for Casey, who wanted to use him as a rich man's Patterson, is that he isn't nearly as athletic as PP.

I agree with the sentiment that the Raptors starting lineup could become more matchup driven, but that should hold true for both the C and PF positions.

There have been some games when JV has dominated his C matchup, only to see Ibaka struggle covering a more mobile PF. Other times JV has looked too slow against a more modern C, and it would be great to shift Ibaka into the small-ball C position.

I have no issue with JV coming off the bench in certain games, but at times Ibaka has been the bigger concern; he's either too slow to defend the opposing PF, or too small to defend/rebound against a bigger C.

The other issue is rebounding, especially on the offensive glass, since Ibaka has been asked to be more of a stretch-4/5. When he's on the perimeter and JV isn't on the court, the team has no offensive rebounding. It has also been an issue at times at the defensive end, when the opposition seems to get many extra opportunities without JV in there to clear the glass.

Another long-time weakness of Casey is his inability to exploit mismatches, when they favor players other than Lowry and DeRozan. It seems like the starting lineup - whoever it is alongside the wonder twins - always grades out negatively, since they are either mismatched unfavorably and exploited (poor perimeter defense from the guards doesn't help), or have a favorable mismatch that doesn't get exploited to the Raptors benefit. Given that combo, the bigs are always going to appear to be a weakness for the Raptors.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

My problem with Ibaka fundamentally is that he is not a power forward anymore. He's too slow. The only thing that makes him power forward-y is that he can shoot jumpshots. He doesn't defend the perimeter well, can't switch the 3-4 at all (hell he was being made to look like a snail by a 32 year old Millsap a few games back).

Plus in basketball you want your best defenders in the starting lineup because that's where you can maximize their value. You don't maximize the value of defenders by bringing them off the bench. Obviously you still have to start your top stars regardless of that (Lowry & DD) but Anunoby and Siakam are our best defenders at the 3 and 4 and I think it's either Ibaka or Poeltl who is best defensively for us at the 5.

[KeonClark]

It's not really the center going the way of the dodo bird, it's the power forward. Old school 4s have moved to the 5 where the old school 5s still exist, it's just a more crowded field competing for fewer jobs. Playing the 4 now is usually a long rangey "old school" small forward. Long rangy wings who can shoot are in a booming economy, they can share a court with 3 others like them. And while there's still and always will be an importance to having a "big", the problem with the raptors is starting and featuring 2 of them at once

[Shaolin Fantastic]

It's not really the center going the way of the dodo bird, it's the power forward. Old school 4s have moved to the 5 where the old school 5s still exist, it's just a more crowded field competing for fewer jobs. Playing the 4 now is usually a long rangey "old school" small forward. Long rangy wings who can shoot are in a booming economy, they can share a court with 3 others like them. And while there's still and always will be an importance to having a "big", the problem with the raptors is starting and featuring 2 of them at once

Bingo. The position that is disappearing is the traditional 4 not the center position. Because ideally your 4 can switch 2-4 on the perimeter

[DanH]

I think judging a player's defence is context-dependent. Poeltl is our best defender at the 5, but because of specific drawbacks in his game, and largely his inexperience and lack of strength, he's just not a viable starter, as shown by the team's struggles every time he draws into those minutes, and his foul rate in those minutes. Casey will and should keep trying him there in spurts, but for now he hasn't shown he can handle it every night. Hopefully with time, and ideally by the end of the season (though I'd be pleasantly surprised) he shows he can bring his defensive contributions against all manner of opposition.

While Ibaka at the 5 at least stands a better chance of working (even if I don't like the wear and tear Ibaka would have to suffer through against a lot of big C's as the everyday starter), it also fucks up the frontcourt rotation, as I presume Siakam would start, and then you end up with either OG playing more at the 4, or having to keep a starting forward on the floor at all times, neither of which is ideal, and either JV or Poeltl get buried, when both are providing serviceable to great minutes in their respective roles right now.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I think judging a player's defence is context-dependent. Poeltl is our best defender at the 5, but because of specific drawbacks in his game, and largely his inexperience and lack of strength, he's just not a viable starter, as shown by the team's struggles every time he draws into those minutes, and his foul rate in those minutes. Casey will and should keep trying him there in spurts, but for now he hasn't shown he can handle it every night. Hopefully with time, and ideally by the end of the season (though I'd be pleasantly surprised) he shows he can bring his defensive contributions against all manner of opposition.

While Ibaka at the 5 at least stands a better chance of working (even if I don't like the wear and tear Ibaka would have to suffer through against a lot of big C's as the everyday starter), it also fucks up the frontcourt rotation, as I presume Siakam would start, and then you end up with either OG playing more at the 4, or having to keep a starting forward on the floor at all times, neither of which is ideal, and either JV or Poeltl get buried, when both are providing serviceable to great minutes in their respective roles right now.

~10 minutes a game at the 4 for me is no problem for OG. Ibaka would play there but only with the bench next to Poeltl as I stated before which is fine for about ~10mpg. Siakam would play ~25mpg at the 4 like he is the past 5-10 games, just starting.

OG would get about 15mpg at the 3 spot (5 to start the game, 5 to end the game, 5 at the start of the 3rd quarter). The rest would be CJ (his usual 20) and some Powell/DeMar. Then Powell gets the backup 2 minutes and PG is the Lowry/FVV/Wright trio.

I don't really see how that messes up the rotation. Ibaka would play about 18mpg (6 starting, 6 3rd quarter, 6 closing), with JV getting 20 as backup C and Poeltl getting 10.

PG: Lowry (30)/Wright or FVV(18)
SG: DeRozan(34)/Powell(14)
SF: Anunoby(15)/Miles(23)/Powell(10)
PF: Siakam (28)/Anunoby(10)/Ibaka(10)
C: Ibaka (18)/Jonas (20)/Poeltl (10)

JV doesn't get "buried" he plays the exact same amount of minutes he is now against easier competition so his defense becomes less problematic. Ibaka only plays PF when Poeltl is at center. And Poeltl gets about 10mpg which isn't all that different from right now.


EDIT: Plus what you could with JV is, basically the Lowry+Bench unit gets about 12-14 mpg (start of the 2nd and 4th quarters mainly). Make the bulk of his minutes happen in those units and then fill in the rest for short spurts elsewhere.

[DanH]

~10 minutes a game at the 4 for me is no problem for OG. Ibaka would play there but only with the bench next to Poeltl as I stated before which is fine for about ~10mpg. Siakam would play ~25mpg at the 4 like he is the past 5-10 games, just starting.

OG would get about 15mpg at the 3 spot (5 to start the game, 5 to end the game, 5 at the start of the 3rd quarter). The rest would be CJ (his usual 20) and some Powell/DeMar. Then Powell gets the backup 2 minutes and PG is the Lowry/FVV/Wright trio.

I don't really see how that messes up the rotation. Ibaka would play about 18mpg (6 starting, 6 3rd quarter, 6 closing), with JV getting 20 as backup C and Poeltl getting 10.

PG: Lowry (30)/Wright or FVV(18)
SG: DeRozan(34)/Powell(14)
SF: Anunoby(15)/Miles(23)/Powell(10)
PF: Siakam (28)/Anunoby(10)/Ibaka(10)
C: Ibaka (18)/Jonas (20)/Poeltl (10)

JV doesn't get "buried" he plays the exact same amount of minutes he is now against easier competition so his defense becomes less problematic. Ibaka only plays PF when Poeltl is at center. And Poeltl gets about 10mpg which isn't all that different from right now.


EDIT: Plus what you could with JV is, basically the Lowry+Bench unit gets about 12-14 mpg (start of the 2nd and 4th quarters mainly). Make the bulk of his minutes happen in those units and then fill in the rest for short spurts elsewhere.

Yeah, but you do bury Poeltl in that rotation, and you know we're not really running that many Lowry+bench minutes right now, so JV would be in with that all-bench unit he really doesn't fit well in, that basically HAS to kill it defensively to make up for the general lack of offensive options (even with JV out there, who is too easy to key on without spacers on the floor).

It seems... OK. Which is fine. But we've got OK right now.

[Rudy Bargnani]

My problem with Ibaka fundamentally is that he is not a power forward anymore. He's too slow. The only thing that makes him power forward-y is that he can shoot jumpshots. He doesn't defend the perimeter well, can't switch the 3-4 at all (hell he was being made to look like a snail by a 32 year old Millsap a few games back).

Plus in basketball you want your best defenders in the starting lineup because that's where you can maximize their value. You don't maximize the value of defenders by bringing them off the bench. Obviously you still have to start your top stars regardless of that (Lowry & DD) but Anunoby and Siakam are our best defenders at the 3 and 4 and I think it's either Ibaka or Poeltl who is best defensively for us at the 5.

I agree with these points plus I'd add that any shot blocking/rim protection Ibaka brings to the table is not happening when he's slowly chasing streatch 4's around the perimeter. I'm not going to look up the numbers but I imagine his shot blocking numbers are stronger as a 5.

[KeonClark]

One thing to remember is ibakas not going magically avoid speed perimeter guys if he goes to the 5. Once Valanciunas is gone they'll use screens to expose ibaka in the same way.

[DanH]

I agree with these points plus I'd add that any shot blocking/rim protection Ibaka brings to the table is not happening when he's slowly chasing streatch 4's around the perimeter. I'm not going to look up the numbers but I imagine his shot blocking numbers are stronger as a 5.

They are stronger, but still well short of what Poeltl or BeBe post in terms of block rates. It's like 1.7 per 36 at C versus just over 1 per 36 at PF last I checked a few games ago, IIRC.

[LJ2]

One thing to remember is ibakas not going magically avoid speed perimeter guys if he goes to the 5. Once Valanciunas is gone they'll use screens to expose ibaka in the same way.

The problem I see with Ibaka is that he's in a new role where he's asked to be more of a scorer than he has in the past. He's one player I think that would benefit much more playing in a iso system where he can concentrate on playing D. hes not so talented that he can or should be your third best scoring option nigh in and out. He should be our best defender wig a bit of 3 pt shooting and that's it. The sooner we can get a legit scoring threat next to Lowry and DD the better it will be fo Serge. Perhaps Norm finally steps up but it's not looking likely.

[charlesnba23]

The problem I see with Ibaka is that he's in a new role where he's asked to be more of a scorer than he has in the past. He's one player I think that would benefit much more playing in a iso system where he can concentrate on playing D. hes not so talented that he can or should be your third best scoring option nigh in and out. He should be our best defender wig a bit of 3 pt shooting and that's it. The sooner we can get a legit scoring threat next to Lowry and DD the better it will be fo Serge. Perhaps Norm finally steps up but it's not looking likely.

Or perhaps OG

[Chr1s1anL]

Moving Jv to the bench effects our best unit. It gets more and more obvious by the game how expendable he is. How he just doesn't fit the make up of this team. Jv is averaging a career low in minutes(20.2), because we just have better options at his position. Like I've said id rather have Mirotic starting next to Ibaka for 20 mins a game. Get to play Ibaka at 5 which helps his game on O and D. Mirotic adds floor spacing, he has team option for next year. Get a shooter for a couple months and cap relieve in the summer if it doesn't workout. Still able to keep the bench together as well.