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Is a lockout looming in 2011?

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  • Is a lockout looming in 2011?

    Which brings us to the Lockout That Hasn't Happened Yet. Unless the players' association agrees to major concessions by the summer of 2011 -- highly doubtful because that would involve applying common sense -- the owners will happily lock out players as soon as the current CBA expires, then play the same devious waiting game from the summer of 1998. David Stern will grow another scruffy beard. The owners will plant their feet in the sand, grab the tug-of-war rope and dig in. Only this time, they KNOW they will win. See, we learned a dirty little secret in the last lockout: An inordinate number of NBA players live paycheck to paycheck. Yes, even the guys making eight figures a year. You can play high-stakes poker with them … and you will win.
    "I don't need to worry about money, I'm making $10 mil a year!" I know it sounds farfetched, but I've heard the Inexplicable Tale Of Financial Woe with NBA stars too many times to count
    Remember the lessons of the '99 lockout -- the players HAD to come back. And it wasn't because they missed playing.
    Team Stern and the owners know this better than anyone. They will pick the next fight, and again, they will win. When the players' union waves a white flag and the lockout finally ends (2012? 2013?), I predict a raise of the individual salary max (to $24-25 million), a softer salary cap, a restriction on long-term contracts (can't be more than three years unless you're re-signing your own star), the elimination of opt-out clauses and the midlevel exemption, and the rookie age limit rising to 20. That's seven predictions in all … and I bet I'll end up nailing six. Will the league survive a yearlong disappearance? What about two years? We're less than 29 months from starting to find out.
    (And by the way, nobody loves basketball more than me. I mean, NOBODY. But when an NBA player with two years remaining on his contract for a total of $44 million shows up for the season out of shape, complains most of the year, lets down his teammates and fans again and again, lands in some trade rumors and decides, "Instead of getting traded to a team I don't like, I'm going to announce that I'm getting microfracture surgery four days before the trade deadline and kill any potential trade, and even better, I'll be healed by next spring, just in time to showcase myself for another contract," and successfully pulls this off -- with no repercussions from anybody -- then yes, the system is broken and needs to be fixed. Because that was disgusting. Tracy McGrady, you are officially indefensible for the rest of eternity. Even your cousin Vince wouldn't have done that. And that's saying something.)
    "The Sports Guy: Bill Simmons" - EPSN.com

  • #2
    I hope not. I can't bear not watching basketball for over the summer just imagine this
    Last name ever, first name greatest

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    • #3
      Nah, the economic downturn + several team's financial struggles + past experience of a lockout will make the player's union far more accepting of change. The players will be reasonable.

      Chances of a lockout are minimal.
      nbaroundtable

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      • #4
        I fully agree Dave... and its not just the players that will be more accommodating, the owners/Stern are not going to take that risk either, it hasn't exactly been roses for the NBA out there. Recent history has shown that lockouts can affect your profits for a decade.


        Prices have been going up on these tickets, and the corporate sector is still far from healthy. I can't see the NBA standing pat while the corporate sector finds other entertainment options.


        ...but that said, money can always be a monkey wrench.

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        • #5
          trizzo wrote: View Post
          I fully agree Dave... and its not just the players that will be more accommodating, the owners/Stern are not going to take that risk either, it hasn't exactly been roses for the NBA out there. Recent history has shown that lockouts can affect your profits for a decade.
          Trizzo, when half the league would be losing less money by closing the gates there is little to risk involved in carving out a CBA that makes sense in a new, much poorer, America; little risk in waiting for the players to sign on to it.

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          • #6
            CBA Negotiations

            Remember the last one?

            http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...post&status=ok

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            • #7
              ..what is happening..???do you want nba go on shame...???.....

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              • #8
                I hope David Stern's salary gets slashed as well..

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                • #9
                  Stern's salary isn't determined by the CBA. He has his own contract with the league.

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                  • #10
                    Looks like a lockout looms for 2010-11 season.

                    Owners want a severe drop in salaries.

                    http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ar...p_of_salaries/

                    The more compelling question is what to do about contracts to be negotiated in 2010 ala Bosh and others going forward.

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                    • #11
                      Those can't be touched by a renegotiation. This is why Wade, James and Bosh strategically placed their free agency where they did. The players in FA 2011 are going to take big time pay cuts given the hard times in the American economy.

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                      • #12
                        NBA owners propose hard cap, paycut for players

                        NBA owners propose hard cap, paycut for players
                        Posted on: February 5, 2010 2:10 pm
                        Edited on: February 5, 2010 4:17 pm


                        NEW YORK-- Launching a grim opening salvo in what is expected to be a contentious labor negotiation, NBA owners have sent their initial proposal to the NBA Players Association and are pushing for some elements of a "hard" salary cap as well as a drastic reduction in player salaries, CBSSports.com has learned.

                        The proposal, sent to the union earlier this week, seeks a reduction in the players' share of basketball-related income from 57 percent to well below 50 percent, according to a person familiar with the document. Owners also are seeking some elements of a hard cap -- a departure from the current luxury-tax system -- and a reduction in the length and amount of max contracts.
                        cont on link

                        http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.co...38893/19929589
                        Avatar: Riverboat Coffee House 134 Yorkville Ave. billboard of upcoming entertainers - Circa 1960s

                        Memories some so sweet, indeed

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                        “As a captain, I played furiously. I drew a lot of fouls, but I brought everything I had to every practice and to every game. I left everything on the court because I simply wanted the team to win”
                        Quote from well known personality who led their high school team to a state championship.

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                        • #13
                          Yes, this is both good and bad for the team.

                          It increases the likelihood of us resigning Bosh. Already, there are rumours that both Lebron and Chris would be open to negotiating extensions under the current CBA. They know closer they wait until free agency, the more frugal owners and GMs are likely to be as negotiations evolve.

                          However, signing any player to a max contract now may have brutal ramifications for teams in two to three years, with a smaller hard cap. Can you imagine what the Raptors would look like built around a player that takes up 30 to 40 % of our cap space? It's not like Bosh is Lebron or Primetime Shaq.

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                          • #14
                            Disastrous

                            This sounds like the aggregate majority of failing teams looking to shank successful teams for essentially better approaching the business end of the game.

                            If the Cavs, Raps, Knicks, Heat, Hawks, Rockets etc. basically anyone ready for the 2010 free agent pool sign big contracts, this Reduction in Salaries and Hard Cap would tie these franchises hands and significantly hinder their ability to compete.
                            Last edited by Raptor Jesus; Sat Feb 6, 2010, 12:29 PM. Reason: Editted for Spelling and grammar

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                            • #15
                              Good. I have no idea why they didn't do that last time. A hard cap should at least provide conditions in which parity is possible. Somebody mentioned this a while back on the blog raps, but an idea of a "franchise player" like in the NFL would also be good.

                              Raptor Jesus - If a hard cap is put in place, I doubt it'll come into effect immediately. It'll have to be a staggered thing for the reasons you mentioned.

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