Keep Calderon!

[Multipaul]

The stats I linked to are actually on the season, so they include his shooting/distributing slump at the start of the season. If his 2010-2011 season averages are this good, he doesn't even need to sustain his current extremely high level of offensive efficiency to remain near the top of the league's PGs in offence generated per possession. I'm pretty confident that he'll remain in the top 10 PGs in offensive efficiency this season unless he suffers a season-ending injury. On the flip side, his defence looks better to my eye, but my eye is quite untrained and I haven't looked at defensive stats.

I see a few people making the "sell high" argument, and to be honest it's the one argument for trading Jose that I can really grok. It does make sense. However, I think it would need to shore up another position (SF, C) rather than trading for another PG. If we bring in another PG who is a good distributor, it's a lateral move at best and more likely a downgrade, since I can't see us getting one of the few PGs who are as good at handling the rock as Calderon. Since we've got Bayless already and he's looking like he could be quite good, if we do trade Calderon I'd make Bayless the starting PG the way we made DeRozan the starting SG in his rookie season -- force-feed him minutes and let him learn by playing real games. We'd cost ourselves quite a few games (Calderon's WP/48 is about 0.2 lately while I think Bayless is still negative), but hopefully bring Bayless along even quicker than we have with DeRozan.

The other case is if we hit the lottery jackpot and draft an elite PG. Then I guess we'd try to grow Bayless into a combo guard who could spell our rookie PG but also share the floor with him when DeRozan is on the bench for a bit. So Bayless would be the 6th man the way Barbosa is now.

So that argument does make some sense, and those two contexts are really the only cases where I'd reluctantly support a Calderon trade.

That said, I actually think Jose can be this team's PG until at least the 2013 trade deadline (when he'll have a $10.5M expiring contract). I think the Raptors as structured need a pass-first PG who takes care of the rock, and as I've been saying, I don't think there are many in the league who are better than Jose on that front. We may be able to develop Bayless into that; I think doing so will be easier if Bayless is backing up Calderon and can learn from him directly in addition to learning from the coaching staff. You can have shooting coaches and defensive coaches and whatnot but I'm not sure there's such a thing as a "playmaking coach." I'm hoping that seeing how Calderon runs an offence both in practice and in games will help Bayless develop his own playmaking.

If that pans out, Bayless becomes the starting PG sometime in the 2012-2013 season or at the start of the 2014 season, and we go from there.

Finally, I actually think we could re-sign Calderon for a much smaller contract after his current one is up and continue to use him, if his efficiency remains high in the 2012-2013 season. In that case Bayless becomes the next Leandro Barbosa in much the same way I described above, but he plays more and more time at PG as Calderon's minutes decline with age. If Steve Nash and Jason Kidd are still making plays well into their 30s, I wouldn't write Calderon off after this contract.

"Jose doesn't fit this team's long-term plans" is an assumption I've seen made by a couple of people in this thread, but I wouldn't just assume that's true. I think he's the type of PG this team needs right now, and unless our starting 5 all grow into shot creators and/or ball distributors (not so likely given their low assist numbers so far), we're probably still going to need a PG who can distribute the ball efficiently and effectively in 2014.

Holy crap, I just previewed this post and it's turned into a wall of text... eek.

You must have had this on your chest for a long time..

that's what she said

[heinz57]

The stats I linked to are actually on the season, so they include his shooting/distributing slump at the start of the season. If his 2010-2011 season averages are this good, he doesn't even need to sustain his current extremely high level of offensive efficiency to remain near the top of the league's PGs in offence generated per possession. I'm pretty confident that he'll remain in the top 10 PGs in offensive efficiency this season unless he suffers a season-ending injury. On the flip side, his defence looks better to my eye, but my eye is quite untrained and I haven't looked at defensive stats.

I see a few people making the "sell high" argument, and to be honest it's the one argument for trading Jose that I can really grok. It does make sense. However, I think it would need to shore up another position (SF, C) rather than trading for another PG. If we bring in another PG who is a good distributor, it's a lateral move at best and more likely a downgrade, since I can't see us getting one of the few PGs who are as good at handling the rock as Calderon. Since we've got Bayless already and he's looking like he could be quite good, if we do trade Calderon I'd make Bayless the starting PG the way we made DeRozan the starting SG in his rookie season -- force-feed him minutes and let him learn by playing real games. We'd cost ourselves quite a few games (Calderon's WP/48 is about 0.2 lately while I think Bayless is still negative), but hopefully bring Bayless along even quicker than we have with DeRozan.

The other case is if we hit the lottery jackpot and draft an elite PG. Then I guess we'd try to grow Bayless into a combo guard who could spell our rookie PG but also share the floor with him when DeRozan is on the bench for a bit. So Bayless would be the 6th man the way Barbosa is now.

So that argument does make some sense, and those two contexts are really the only cases where I'd reluctantly support a Calderon trade.

That said, I actually think Jose can be this team's PG until at least the 2013 trade deadline (when he'll have a $10.5M expiring contract). I think the Raptors as structured need a pass-first PG who takes care of the rock, and as I've been saying, I don't think there are many in the league who are better than Jose on that front. We may be able to develop Bayless into that; I think doing so will be easier if Bayless is backing up Calderon and can learn from him directly in addition to learning from the coaching staff. You can have shooting coaches and defensive coaches and whatnot but I'm not sure there's such a thing as a "playmaking coach." I'm hoping that seeing how Calderon runs an offence both in practice and in games will help Bayless develop his own playmaking.

If that pans out, Bayless becomes the starting PG sometime in the 2012-2013 season or at the start of the 2014 season, and we go from there.

Finally, I actually think we could re-sign Calderon for a much smaller contract after his current one is up and continue to use him, if his efficiency remains high in the 2012-2013 season. In that case Bayless becomes the next Leandro Barbosa in much the same way I described above, but he plays more and more time at PG as Calderon's minutes decline with age. If Steve Nash and Jason Kidd are still making plays well into their 30s, I wouldn't write Calderon off after this contract.

"Jose doesn't fit this team's long-term plans" is an assumption I've seen made by a couple of people in this thread, but I wouldn't just assume that's true. I think he's the type of PG this team needs right now, and unless our starting 5 all grow into shot creators and/or ball distributors (not so likely given their low assist numbers so far), we're probably still going to need a PG who can distribute the ball efficiently and effectively in 2014.

Holy crap, I just previewed this post and it's turned into a wall of text... eek.

remind me never to argue with you.

[mcHAPPY]

No one should be untouchable on the Raptors IF THE RIGHT DEAL COMES ALONG.

Personally, I would like to see Jose go because pretty much all starting spots need to be upgraded. I would not trade Calderon before the trade deadline though. Given his injury history, this is a risk in and of itself. I would be looking to trade him at the draft if the Raptors are in a position to draft a top PG. I can think of 2 teams who could use Calderon - Minnesota and Portland (although Portland might not be suitable if Harris lands there).

*EDIT* I wrote that pretty quick. To clarify, DeRozan doesn't need an upgrade (as of now) he needs his game to continue to develop. Bargnani doesn't need an upgrade. The other big needs an upgrade but Davis might satisfy it in time. PG needs an upgrade on the defensive end because we have Bargnani on the court. SF needs a definite upgrade.

[malefax]

Jose is young enough that he can still be our point guard when DeMar, Davis, and Bargs are in their prime. Obviously you don't pass up a trade that makes the team better, but I don't see any reason Jose NEEDS to be moved. The thing is, the only player that we need more than Jose is someone who can be equally good, but is younger, and it's not very easy to get those guys. It's all very well to say 'we should move him for a younger asset', but it isn't clear that we can get a younger asset who will be an upgrade in the long run. Lots of NBA players never get to be as good as Jose is now.

[mcHAPPY]

Jose is young enough that he can still be our point guard when DeMar, Davis, and Bargs are in their prime. Obviously you don't pass up a trade that makes the team better, but I don't see any reason Jose NEEDS to be moved. The thing is, the only player that we need more than Jose is someone who can be equally good, but is younger, and it's not very easy to get those guys. It's all very well to say 'we should move him for a younger asset', but it isn't clear that we can get a younger asset who will be an upgrade in the long run. Lots of NBA players never get to be as good as Jose is now.

If Jose can be traded, along with Barbosa, and the return is expirings combined with rookie contracts, the Raps could make a run at 2 established NBA players this summer. The payroll would be somewhere around $34-35 if both traded and only $7-8M is on the books for next year. The two players I'd make a run at are Green and Gasol. Then they'd draft a PG. Imagine that. Especially if the PG is Kyrie Irving. IMAGINE THAT! I can imagine, right?