Everything Derozan

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I guess we're splitting hairs on the word "producer", which I'm using in the context of raw points rather than WP, WS, PER, ORTG, etc... But if Shaolin and DanH are united against my example, then I guess I've got to take a mulligan on this one. lol.

But it actually does prove the original example. You can actually force feed a volume scorer 20+ shots per night and he can put up 25+ ppg. And Monta did have a year of 117 ORTG and .140 WS earlier in his career at lower USG.

Yeah the 117 oRTG and .140 WS actually proves the point that you can't just hand high usage to anyone and expect them to produce at the same rate. That was when he was the 3rd option on the Warriors behind Stephen Jackson and Baron Davis, and he was carrying a usage rate of 21.4% which is closer to JV's than DDs.

No we're not splitting hairs man, that was a horrible example.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

It's a perfectly fair description of, say, his 2014-15 season, or his early seasons (obviously not 25 PPG, but still), but over the past two years he definitely doesn't fall into that category.

Not 2013-14.

[Chr1s1anL]

2014-2015 was when he had a groin injury and missed 20+ games I believe.

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[DanH]

Not 2013-14.

Yeah, 13-14 is a funny case. He had basically two half-seasons which averaged out to a good one, but in different ways, on each side of the Rudy Gay trade. He definitely played well, but with his dramatic regression the year after, and the fact that most of his success that year came in that shortened fairy tale run where everybody was flying high... I think the biggest change in his actual approach to the game came right before the 15-16 season. He was a totally different player that year, and carried it into last year. That season is what convinced me that we should throw money at him to keep him around long term.

[DanH]

2014-2015 was when he had a groin injury and missed 20+ games I believe.

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And posted better stats after his injury than before it. We've been over this a thousand times. His injury was not the reason he took a step back that year. His injury was the reason he played fewer games that year, but that's it.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Yeah, 13-14 is a funny case. He had basically two half-seasons which averaged out to a good one, but in different ways, on each side of the Rudy Gay trade. He definitely played well, but with his dramatic regression the year after, and the fact that most of his success that year came in that shortened fairy tale run where everybody was flying high... I think the biggest change in his actual approach to the game came right before the 15-16 season. He was a totally different player that year, and carried it into last year. That season is what convinced me that we should throw money at him to keep him around long term.

The funny case is the 2014-15 season, based on the data from 2013-2017.

[DanH]

The funny case is the 2014-15 season, based on the data from 2013-2017.

OK, or you could arbitrarily grab a different year as your endpoint and show that 14-15 is in line with his earlier career trend and 13-14 was the outlier.

DeRozan's efficiency in 13-14 was actually more in line with his earlier career (only 1% higher than the previous season) and it was his increased usage and assist rate that drove up his production that season - and his increased AST% came mostly after the Gay trade (14% before the trade, very much in line with his previous year of 12%, up at 20% after the trade). Meanwhile, his increased usage also came after the trade (29% vs 26%) and his TS% was consistently below average all year, though better after the trade. So he frankensteined his season together into an aggregate improvement that year - a very promising first step, a very good year compared to previous ones, but not in family with the improvement he made the past two seasons compared to the rest of his career. Heck, his half season with Gay in 13-14 was almost identical to his half-season with Gay in 12-13 (TS% of 53% vs 54% the year before; usage of 26% vs 25%, AST% of 14% vs 14%). The real improvements came later, but there were definitely good signs in the latter half of 12-13 and the two very different halves of 13-14.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

OK, or you could arbitrarily grab a different year as your endpoint and show that 14-15 is in line with his earlier career trend and 13-14 was the outlier.

DeRozan's efficiency in 13-14 was actually more in line with his earlier career (only 1% higher than the previous season) and it was his increased usage and assist rate that drove up his production that season - and his increased AST% came mostly after the Gay trade (14% before the trade, very much in line with his previous year of 12%, up at 20% after the trade). Meanwhile, his increased usage also came after the trade (29% vs 26%) and his TS% was consistently below average all year, though better after the trade. So he frankensteined his season together into an aggregate improvement that year - a very promising first step, a very good year compared to previous ones, but not in family with the improvement he made the past two seasons compared to the rest of his career. Heck, his half season with Gay in 13-14 was almost identical to his half-season with Gay in 12-13 (TS% of 53% vs 54% the year before; usage of 26% vs 25%, AST% of 14% vs 14%). The real improvements came later, but there were definitely good signs in the latter half of 12-13 and the two very different halves of 13-14.

He didn't play half the season with Gay it was 18 games.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

And posted better stats after his injury than before it. We've been over this a thousand times. His injury was not the reason he took a step back that year. His injury was the reason he played fewer games that year, but that's it.

Not sure thats fair he could've been playing with the injury before.

[DanH]

Not sure thats fair he could've been playing with the injury before.

There's no reason to believe that. He slipped and fell in-game, tearing his groin. It was an event injury.

[DanH]

He didn't play half the season with Gay it was 18 games.

I mean two portions, my apologies, not strictly 50% of the season. There was still a stark difference between his performance in the two different team structures - his performance after the trade showed that within that structure his play could be effective. His regression the next year shows that it wasn't due to some miraculous improvement that just happened to coincide with the trade. He was put in a position to succeed, and until he started settling again the next year, he found success. But the real changes in his game came over the past two seasons, IMO.

[special1]

There's no reason to believe that. He slipped and fell in-game, tearing his groin. It was an event injury.

A lot of assumptions being made by you.

2014-2015 was the outlier if you look at the past 4 seasons....It was his worst one.

Also, he was hurt in 2014-15 and played better after the injury (as you admitted). We don't know if there was already issues prior to the incident, but we do know that there was likely stress from having to beat out others (I believe Lillard, Beal, Hayward and others) to make Team USA for the first time and he played with Team USA in the summer of 2014.

All that is to say, that there were likely other issues causing him to start off the 2014-2015 season very slow and then the injury. Maybe he needed to adapt? I don't know and neither do you. But you keep cherry picking that one outlier in the last 4 years (as if it means anything) .....3 of which he was an all-star.

[Mess]

[DanH]

A lot of assumptions being made by you.

2014-2015 was the outlier if you look at the past 4 seasons....It was his worst one.

Also, he was hurt in 2014-15 and played better after the injury (as you admitted). We don't know if there was already issues prior to the incident, but we do know that there was likely stress from having to beat out others (I believe Lillard, Beal, Hayward and others) to make Team USA for the first time and he played with Team USA in the summer of 2014.

All that is to say, that there were likely other issues causing him to start off the 2014-2015 season very slow and then the injury. Maybe he needed to adapt? I don't know and neither do you. But you keep cherry picking that one outlier in the last 4 years (as if it means anything) .....3 of which he was an all-star.

Sure, maybe he needed to adapt. Totally defensible position. Defences were probably scouting him harder with the team having made the playoffs. Absolutely, all true.

His injury did not cause his struggles to start that season. Is what I am saying. And his leap in performance came primarily in the past two seasons. He definitely improved from his early career in 13-14 and even in 14-15 (compared, again, to his pre-13-14 career), but that was a step in the right direction and tempered by being newly successful and scouted. While the past two seasons he's seen his box score impact numbers improve dramatically from the previous two seasons, all while being the focus of defences every night and taking on a larger and larger role.

I was very impressed with his improvement in 13-14, but if he played like 13-14 every year since then, he'd be a dramatically worse player than he is today.

[special1]

Sure, maybe he needed to adapt. Totally defensible position. Defences were probably scouting him harder with the team having made the playoffs. Absolutely, all true.

His injury did not cause his struggles to start that season. Is what I am saying. And his leap in performance came primarily in the past two seasons. He definitely improved from his early career in 13-14 and even in 14-15 (compared, again, to his pre-13-14 career), but that was a step in the right direction and tempered by being newly successful and scouted. While the past two seasons he's seen his box score impact numbers improve dramatically from the previous two seasons, all while being the focus of defences every night and taking on a larger and larger role.

I was very impressed with his improvement in 13-14, but if he played like 13-14 every year since then, he'd be a dramatically worse player than he is today.

The point is.....You have NO IDEA what caused his struggles to start the 2014-15 season. There could've been underlining issues from having to play HARD all summer for the first time in 2014-2015. It could be something as simple as fatigue.

We all know that growth is real and that players tend to get better when they put in the hard work year after year.

Emphasizing his earlier years to the great years he's had more recently as he's matured is quite silly in my opinion. Demar has just entered into his prime. Players can mature and get better. That is the difference that you seem to be searching for. That is the reason that seems to elude you.

There is no anomaly.....Demar worked hard to get better. Its as simple as that. It was foolish for people to write him off then and they seem to be consistently trying to find ways to justify their feelings back then.

Better to just get over it. Don't pick 2014-15 as if it means anything. He had a great 2013-14 season (especially compared to the seasons before that - he made the all-star team that year). Therefore, he was great compared to his peers.

He's gotten better and better every year since (except the outlier in early 2014-15 season in which he had an uncharacteristically busy summer trying out and working with Team USA). He got injured in 2014-15 before he could really bounce back from his slow start and played much better after the injury as everyone knows.