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  • DanH wrote: View Post
    DD signed his extension between the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons. At the time, he was coming off a season with a 12.8 PER, a .503 TS%, and a .054 WS/48. He posted 16.7 PPG. PER and PPG are pretty good captures of league perception, and the other two are pretty good captures of how good a player actually is.

    That season, Ellis posted a PER of 17.5, a .509 TS%, and a .059 WS/48. He scored 20.4 PPG. I would argue although they were similar players, Ellis would have been seen league wide as having significantly higher value at the time. He was making 11M that summer.

    Let's look at what similar players from his draft class did in the same time frame (2011-12 season), and what they did in terms of extensions/free agency.

    DeRozan: 16.7 PPG, 12.8 PER, signed extension, got 9.5M per with potential to be 10.1M with incentives
    Jennings: 19.1 PPG, 16.1 PER, went to RFA, got 8M per plus incentives
    Henderson: 15.1 PPG, 14.0 PER, signed extension, got 6M per
    Evans: 16.5 PPG, 16.4 PER, went to RFA, got 10M per plus 1M in incentives

    Now, of the two who went to free agency, let's see how their stats line up in their contract years to what DD's were that year:
    DeRozan: 18.1 PPG, 14.7 PER, would have gotten ???
    Jennings: 17.5 PPG, 16.1 PER, got 8M
    Evans: 15.2 PPG, 18.1 PER, got 10M + incentives

    So, two players who would have been seen as more efficient, with comparable (at least in Jennings' case) scoring totals, similar draft positions (this can impact perception even a few years out from the draft), and none of whom were considered great defensively, got 8M and up to 11M each. That 11M includes the incentives, so should probably be compared to DD's 10.1M total.

    Throw in the fact that another wing player with similar stats from the same draft class who agreed to an extension early got 6M, and it's hard to be too glowing about the extension terms DD got. Henderson got a player option, probably because he agreed to such a cheap deal. Cheap as in 3 to 4 M cheaper than DD's.
    You left out Jrue Holiday who was the most statistically comparable to DeRozan at the time.

    4yr/41M

    EDIT:

    Jennings didn't get an extension, he signed in FA coming off a year where he shot 39% from the field. Henderson was not considered to have the same kind of potential or upside as DeRozan, fact.

    EDIT: I also call BS on Ellis having more value than DeRozan. PER =/= efficiency and Ellis' actual efficiency (TS%) was around the same range as DeRozan's. Not to mention Ellis had already built up a rep over the previous 3 seasons of being a chucker that doesn't help you win (deserved or not). Plus Ellis was not gonna improve at 27 years old, while DeRozan still had upside.
    Last edited by imanshumpert; Thu Jul 17, 2014, 02:49 PM.

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    • imanshumpert wrote: View Post
      BS



      He wasn't even as good as Derozan when he got that money
      Ok.

      Take the one mistake I had.

      Lol

      However a 6'4" defensive PG with a 6'7" wingspan is usually looked highly upon.

      There are also circumstantial factors such as playing with a ball dominant wing like iguodala at the time.

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      • People forget Ellis turned down 3 year $36m extension in Milwaukee?

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        • Is there a topic more beaten to death and less interesting than DeMar's contract?

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          • white men can't jump wrote: View Post
            Is there a topic more beaten to death and less interesting than DeMar's contract?
            Everything Bargnani?

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            • mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
              Everything Bargnani?
              I don't know...this is overtaking it I think

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              • imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                You left out Jrue Holiday who was the most statistically comparable to DeRozan at the time.

                4yr/41M
                DeRozan: 16.7 PPG, 12.8 PER, signed extension, got 9.5M per with potential to be 10.1M with incentives
                Holiday: 13.5 PPG, 14.7 PER, signed extension, got 9.75M with potential to be 10.25M with incentives

                So DD was a less efficient player who scored 4 more points per game and was seen as a defensive liability, and got the same extension (which, based on the other section I listed, was a mistake for the 76ers as well) as a PG who was more effective than DD (on less usage) but was considered to have serious defensive potential.

                EDIT:

                Jennings didn't get an extension, he signed in FA coming off a year where he shot 39% from the field. Henderson was not considered to have the same kind of potential or upside as DeRozan, fact.
                I said that in my post. Please read it. I had two entirely different sections where I showed their performance in their potential extension year and in their potential contract year. Henderson was not considered to have potential... OK. He still performed better than DD did. And was one of only 3 contracts I gave as examples.

                EDIT: I also call BS on Ellis having more value than DeRozan. PER =/= efficiency and Ellis' actual efficiency (TS%) was around the same range as DeRozan's. Not to mention Ellis had already built up a rep over the previous 3 seasons of being a chucker that doesn't help you win (deserved or not). Plus Ellis was not gonna improve at 27 years old, while DeRozan still had upside.
                Uh, yeah I noted that in my post. Again, you don't seem to have read it. I noted that TS% is a better measure of player performance - but that player perception is what drives contract values, and PER and PPG line up much better with player perception around the league than TS% or WS/48 do, in spite of them being better measures of a player's value.

                Ellis developed a reputation of being a chucker who doesn't help you win. In the three seasons leading up to DD's extension:

                Ellis: 19 FGA/36 (26 wins), 18 FGA/36 (36 wins), 18 FGA/36 (17-20 with GSW, 12-9 with MIL)
                DD: 15 FGA/36 (40 wins), 15 FGA/36 (22 wins), 17 FGA/36 (23-43)

                ---

                It boils down to this: of the group that I compare him to, all from his draft class, some extending and some signing as a RFA, all comparable in terms of statistics (and mostly better via PER and comparable or better in PPG, two drivers for league wide perception of player value), the worst case overpayment I could find was Holiday or Evans with about 11M in salary including incentives (one of which was in RFA, one by extension - an extension that had no player option, I might add). So it seems to suggest that the worst that would happen if he went to RFA was to get a slightly more expensive contract (less than 1M more per year), with no player option.

                The only player to get a player option was a player not expected to improve (as you note, Henderson's potential was perceived to be lower) - which is where it makes sense to give a player option - for unexpected improvement. If you expect the improvement, you are shooting yourself in the foot (as the player is guaranteed to opt out). And if you pay more than their performance indicates (DD had similar performance to Henderson and got 4 M more per year), then you are clearly expecting improvement.

                So. We could have let him to to RFA, with the risk of a 4 year, 11M per year contract with no player option.

                We instead locked him in via extension, giving him a 4 year, 10M per year contract with a player option.

                Personally, I'd gladly pay the extra 1M per year to have 30% longer control over the player (and to push their cheap contract past the potential cap boom of 2016).
                twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                • white men can't jump wrote: View Post
                  I don't know...this is overtaking it I think
                  In there here and now, ok.

                  But not in history.

                  I'll tap out on the topic.

                  I can't add anything new.

                  The dollar value worked out in the Raptors favor the player option most certainly has not. Firmly believe it should have went to restricted free agency but can understand the goodwill and loyalty for the duration of the contract of getting it done early. Once contract ends, take the goodwill and loyalty to the curb.

                  I rest my case, your Honour.

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                  • All that to say Colangelo sucked. A large amount of us already knew that. Can the conversation move on to something current? Like DD getting selected for the US B-Ball team camp? Thanks.

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                    • imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                      I am really struggling to make a connection here...
                      All I meant by that is … either one is nice but it would have been so much better if it was natural … like how it would have been so much better if his contract is a team option. Doesn't really relate except for how I feel about em lol
                      “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

                      -- Charles Barkley

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                      • torch19 wrote: View Post
                        All I meant by that is … either one is nice but it would have been so much better if it was natural … like how it would have been so much better if his contract is a team option. Doesn't really relate except for how I feel about em lol
                        ahhhhh gotchya

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                        • DanH wrote: View Post
                          Can't see DD having wanted more years, since we gave him the maximum term allowed.

                          The reality is, over the first few years of that extension, his salary didn't matter much - we were in the process of a rebuild. Next year and in 2016 and later is when it will matter - and in 2016 he now has the possibility of getting paid 23M. The whole idea of extending a player like DD long term is to take a gamble he will outplay his contract. Why set up a scenario where if all goes well, he gets to opt out of said contract and hit the open market with his increased value? Even if you retain him, surely he is no longer on the value side of the curve.

                          Heck any forethought at all would have shown that summer 2016 would have a big jump in TV money, so it is the LAST season you would want to put a player option in (as the player is almost guaranteed to opt out). The deal was lambasted at the time as being an overpay. If you needed to give him the high pay (again, his value around the league was nowhere near 10M at the time) to lock him in long term, you sure as heck do not let him opt out of being locked in long term.

                          If it would have taken more money to get him to commit for the full 4 years, might as well have let him go to restricted free agency and let the market decide his value.
                          This seems to benefit from a lot of hindsight is 20/20 thinking.

                          "You do not let him opt out"? If the goal is to lock him up without him hitting RFA then you may not have a choice. For all we know the $9.5mm was more than what BC wanted to pay as it is; you yourself said that his contract value seemed nowhere near market value. They could have been so far apart on the terms (remember that the deal was signed at the eleventh hour in the tunnel at the ACC) that this was the only solution.

                          I wanted BC to wait for RFA on Demar but the fact of the matter is, we ended up with Demar on an advantageous contract, and complaining that Demar has a player option in year four is ridiculous. We can play armchair GM and that's all well and good but there's a limit to how much information we have.

                          Further, Lowry's contract provides a perfect example of the double standard we set for BC vs Masai. Lowry has a year-four option but we all laud Masai for getting him back on a reasonable deal.

                          BC messed up a lot of things but it's the height of absurdity to shit on him for this.

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                          • Its a complete joke actually.

                            People aren't happy unless they are telling everyone else how much smarter than their teams GM they are. It's ridiculous.

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                            • BTW, hearing DD is working with Gary Payton? Absolutely great news. Get that D up Demar!
                              @Boymusic66

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                              • Maybe when we get back to back ECFs and sign KD in 2016 he'll realize that he should stay here
                                The name's Bond, James Bond.

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