Everything Derozan

[DanH]

this quote was referring to the commonly held belief, and supposedly proven(I've never actually read the book) that efficiency is negatively correlated with usage

It's not a correlation. It's a cliff. The theory is that players can handle a certain usage, and above a certain one, their efficiency will sharply decline. The threshold for that decline is different for every player. It is not a steady decrease with usage - it is a plateau that drops off suddenly. DD's strength, by that theory (which holds, as far as I can tell) is that he hasn't reached his cliff yet - he's been fairly equally efficient/inefficient at almost all stages of his career with different usages. As such, he can handle high usage, allowing other players to not have to exceed their "cliff" usage while playing with him. It is by no means an excuse for his sub-par efficiency.

Looking at league wide TS% and USG% last year, the relationship between them was:

TS% = .0034*USG% + .4491

That's almost a zero slope, and in fact there is a slight upward trend. As usage goes up (between players) At the same time, the R-squared value is 0.0379 - practically no correlation whatsoever. Although there will be player to player differences, if the general theory of USG being correlated with TS% was true, you'd see a general trend across the league as well.

[stooley]

It's not a correlation. It's a cliff. The theory is that players can handle a certain usage, and above a certain one, their efficiency will sharply decline. The threshold for that decline is different for every player. It is not a steady decrease with usage - it is a plateau that drops off suddenly. DD's strength, by that theory (which holds, as far as I can tell) is that he hasn't reached his cliff yet - he's been fairly equally efficient/inefficient at almost all stages of his career with different usages. As such, he can handle high usage, allowing other players to not have to exceed their "cliff" usage while playing with him. It is by no means an excuse for his sub-par efficiency.

Ok. Thanks for the clarification!

Looking at league wide TS% and USG% last year, the relationship between them was:

TS% = .0034*USG% + .4491

That's almost a zero slope, and in fact there is a slight upward trend. As usage goes up (between players) At the same time, the R-squared value is 0.0379 - practically no correlation whatsoever. Although there will be player to player differences, if the general theory of USG being correlated with TS% was true, you'd see a general trend across the league as well.

Not across players, of course, but for individual players, that is, after all, the theory.

I don't want to get in to this argument about demar's worth again because it's been rehashed a million times.

But I do find it interesting that he actually is one of the most frequent and effective drivers in the league.

I think he takes 4-5 bad shots a game, and if he could cut that down to 2-3, he'd be sitting pretty. Maybe if his team mates improve, which they should, that'll happen.

[DanH]

It's just common sense that there's a range of quality of the defense played on Demar on each of his shots, and, from experience, it's a pretty reasonable leap of faith to say that a player makes more of his open shots.

The reality is that players, league wide, consistently shoot better percentages on catch-and-shoot jumpers than on pull-up jumpers. Among the top 15 players in catch-and-shoot FGA's per game, the average eFG% is 53%. In pull-up situations, it is 41%. Common sense suggests that a higher FG% is probably because of the shots being more open, on average. As such, league wide, it seems safe to assume that catch-and-shoot shots are less well covered than pull-up shots.

Why then the insignificant difference in efficiency for DD? Well, a) he is a poor shooter, even when open and b) he is better than average at suppressing the impact of being covered - so that he still shoots poorly, just not significantly more poorly than when he is open.

[DanH]

Not across players, of course, but for individual players, that is, after all, the theory.

But it isn't. That's what I just said. The theory is the cliff, not a downwards trend.

I don't want to get in to this argument about demar's worth again because it's been rehashed a million times.

But I do find it interesting that he actually is one of the most frequent and effective drivers in the league.

I think he takes 4-5 bad shots a game, and if he could cut that down to 2-3, he'd be sitting pretty. Maybe if his team mates improve, which they should, that'll happen.

Now that is indeed true. I completely disagree that the quality of his teammates has anything to do with the bad shots he takes. He just has to smarten up.

[stooley]

The reality is that players, league wide, consistently shoot better percentages on catch-and-shoot jumpers than on pull-up jumpers. Among the top 15 players in catch-and-shoot FGA's per game, the average eFG% is 53%. In pull-up situations, it is 41%. Common sense suggests that a higher FG% is probably because of the shots being more open, on average. As such, league wide, it seems safe to assume that catch-and-shoot shots are less well covered than pull-up shots.

Why then the insignificant difference in efficiency for DD? Well, a) he is a poor shooter, even when open and b) he is better than average at suppressing the impact of being covered - so that he still shoots poorly, just not significantly more poorly than when he is open.

I think you're using those stats incorrectly. I'm not surprised that the top-15 catch and shoot guys have a higher percentage than the top-15 pull up guys.

Is there any data on the average difference between players' catch and shoot and pull up jumpers though? I'd bet that DD's similar percentages are not beyond the realm of random walk.

I think if we want to get even more accurate, we should look at the difference between those stats for specifically high usg guys because they attract more defensive attention and won't get left open as much.

edit: from what i can tell the difference is pretty large for most guys, so you've got a pretty good point. but, on the other hand, DD's pull up game is pretty much even with guys like Durant, Harden and Parker

his catch and shoots are right on par with Westbrook and Wade

[stooley]

It's too bad we can't get access to those synergy stats that track shots with a defender within a certain number of feet.

[DanH]

I think you're using those stats incorrectly. I'm not surprised that the top-15 catch and shoot guys have a higher percentage than the top-15 pull up guys.

Is there any data on the average difference between players' catch and shoot and pull up jumpers though? I'd bet that DD's similar percentages are not beyond the realm of random walk.

I think if we want to get even more accurate, we should look at the difference between those stats for specifically high usg guys because they attract more defensive attention and won't get left open as much.

That would take forever to compile, but I can look at the top 15 guys in pull-up FGA's per game (those similar to DD in usage) and see what their eFG% is on catch-and-shoot jumpers.

On average, they saw a 31% increase (ratio, not shooting percentage) in eFG% in catch and shoot relative to pull-up jumpers. That's skewed by the wonky -29% for Nowitzki (how weird is that? I have no explanation for this. He's the only significant negative on the list). 9 of the 15 saw an increase of 10% or more. One of the other exceptions is Curry, who is never, ever open. The only other players who were comparable to DD in terms of limited impact (4%) of going from CnS to pull-up were John Wall (4%) and Russell Westbrook (-1%), both objectively poor shooters.

[stooley]

That would take forever to compile, but I can look at the top 15 guys in pull-up FGA's per game (those similar to DD in usage) and see what their eFG% is on catch-and-shoot jumpers.

On average, they saw a 31% increase (ratio, not shooting percentage) in eFG% in catch and shoot relative to pull-up jumpers. That's skewed by the wonky -29% for Nowitzki (how weird is that? I have no explanation for this. He's the only significant negative on the list). 9 of the 15 saw an increase of 10% or more. One of the other exceptions is Curry, who is never, ever open. The only other players who were comparable to DD in terms of limited impact (4%) of going from CnS to pull-up were John Wall (4%) and Russell Westbrook (-1%), both objectively poor shooters.

yeah, see my edit. I see your point now.

all the guys who didn't have much a difference seemed to be big men, even good shooters like Nowitzki and Aldridge.

[stooley]

just start shooting em like this demar

[godkingleonidas]

Can't trade this♫

[OptimalOptimist]

Usual morning hunting of raptors article (might have been posted before):
http://www.nba.com/raptors/mackenzie...40731_28824506

With assistant coach Tom Thibodeau screaming at DeRozan — and the rest of his team — to step up their efforts on defence during Monday afternoon’s scrimmage, DeRozan draped himself over Thompson and was rewarded with a direct (unintentional) hit. Knocked to the ground almost immediately, droplets of blood splayed across the court as his teammates picked him up and he went to the bench to have a trainer pack his nose with tissue to stop the bleeding.

“It’s cool,” DeRozan said as he sent a trainer to get more ice for him after the practice finished.

Mostly, he wants fans who are also hung up on that season-ending loss to know that he’s putting in work preparing for next season.

“Just that,” DeRozan said. “Nothing else. Nothing else. I try not to change routines at all. Stick to my schedule: Working, working, working. Working hard. Try to lead by example, continue to get better. You only get to do this for so long so every summer I try to get that much better and keep elevating myself and my teammates at the same time. Other than that, nothing else too special. Just work.”

Spending time in L.A. working out with Terrence Ross, Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson and rookies Bruno Caboclo and DeAndre Daniels in July, DeRozan has been able to observe how his teammates look to him to set the tone of their workouts.

The respect he has earned through his work ethic isn’t something he takes lightly.

“That’s why I work so hard, so I can lead by example,” DeRozan said. “They can see that. I remember as a young guy, seeing other older players work hard and it made me feel insecure about myself if I missed a day, if I didn’t work out or skip a day. Once you have that instilled in your teammates and players around you, that can only make you better as a whole.”

Gesturing around the gym at various players he had grown up playing with years before his NBA dreams came true, DeRozan — who wore a Toronto Blue Jays hat in Vegas on Sunday afternoon — is grateful for all that his career has given him thus far.

“It’s a big deal for me because I kind of represent my country and the country of Canada,” DeRozan said. “I get to show off the two countries that root for me. It’s always fun just to be mentioned in a pool of players that are able to make your country’s team and represent them. It’s a great honour.”

[Joey]

Usual morning hunting of raptors article (might have been posted before):
http://www.nba.com/raptors/mackenzie...40731_28824506

I fucking love this guy.

[Chr1s1anL]

Calling it right now. DeMar DeRozan will be the first raptor lifer.

[yabadabayolo]

Calling it right now. DeMar DeRozan will be the first raptor lifer.

Calling it right now, he will have 2 rings by the end of his career

[rocwell]

Turn on ESPN. Blue vs White r playin.