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  • DanH wrote: View Post
    Here's the thing though - this is always true. Always. If players were willing to take one year deals and have no security beyond their current salary, they would invariably make more money long term. The raises are better, they can chase the max up as the cap rises, etc.

    But players almost never do that. Even when they do, they tack on a player option year for insurance.
    That is what LeBron is doing though.

    And I believe that the current cap jump definitely makes now not "business as usual". If a player was going to attempt such a thing, wouldn't historic and unheard of cap jumps be the optimal time to do it?
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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    • Axel wrote: View Post
      That is what LeBron is doing though.

      And I believe that the current cap jump definitely makes now not "business as usual". If a player was going to attempt such a thing, wouldn't historic and unheard of cap jumps be the optimal time to do it?

      LeBron just signed a lifetime shoe deal that is rumoured to be worth over $1,000,000,000.

      DeRozan has come leaps and bounds but not to the point where his endorsement money dwarfs his NBA salary.

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      • Everything Demar Derozan

        mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
        LeBron just signed a lifetime shoe deal that is rumoured to be worth over $1,000,000,000.

        DeRozan has come leaps and bounds but not to the point where his endorsement money dwarfs his NBA salary.
        Well obviously I'm not comparing DD to LeBron, but looking at the cap projections, would it not be logical for a player entering their prime, and an allstar, to sign 2 one-year deals then lock up long term?

        DD doesn't seem an injury risk (unlike Lowry) and could be looking to maximize his value.

        I'm not saying it will happen, I just believe that it is an option with this cap environment, and probably more likely than the $20M deals I've seen predicted.

        It would be Demar betting on himself.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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        • Axel wrote: View Post
          Well obviously I'm not comparing DD to LeBron, but looking at the cap projections, would it not be logical for a player entering their prime, and an allstar, to sign 2 one-year deals then lock up long term?

          DD doesn't seem an injury risk (unlike Lowry) and could be looking to maximize his value.

          I'm not saying it will happen, I just believe that it is an option with this cap environment, and probably more likely than the $20M deals I've seen predicted.

          It would be Demar betting on himself.

          Injuries can happen at any time.

          DanH makes good points about insurance.


          Comes down to risk versus reward. Is the risk of losing $80M worth the benefit of gaining another $20? None of us really know because we're not in the position. But for what happens, T-minus 6 months.

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          • Axel wrote: View Post
            Well obviously I'm not comparing DD to LeBron, but looking at the cap projections, would it not be logical for a player entering their prime, and an allstar, to sign 2 one-year deals then lock up long term?

            DD doesn't seem an injury risk (unlike Lowry) and could be looking to maximize his value.

            I'm not saying it will happen, I just believe that it is an option with this cap environment, and probably more likely than the $20M deals I've seen predicted.

            It would be Demar betting on himself.
            Too risky for Demar.

            A guy like Lebron could take that risk because teams will pay him max regardless of any injuries. Also, he's going to be a billionaire.


            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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            • Axel wrote: View Post
              Yes, and that might get him to accept a deal like you proposed, but again, I'm trying to hear justification from the posters who are predicting the deals starting at $20M or $22M (simply put, this isn't necessarily a question DanH can answer because he isn't one of those posters - you are simply the one to respond thus far).

              Am I right in assuming that the player option can only be tacked onto the final year of the deal, or can he take a 3 yr deal with a PO for the final 2 years?
              Yeah, options can only be in the final year of a deal.

              But my suggestion was a deal starting at 22.8M and I thought I backed it up nicely - is there a problem with that deal starting at 22.8M?

              Certainly the 20M suggestion is basically a hope and a prayer that DD does not get a max offer, but 22 seems like the low end of a reasonable starting salary if the Raptors are offering bigger raises and the 5th year with an option.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • DanH wrote: View Post
                But my suggestion was a deal starting at 22.8M and I thought I backed it up nicely - is there a problem with that deal starting at 22.8M?
                Sorry, missed that as your average was $26.8M or $25.3M over the first four.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                • I think a player can have an early termination option as well as a player option (which apparently are not the same thing)...I wish I could remember who had a deal like that.
                  For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

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                  • thead wrote: View Post
                    I think a player can have an early termination option as well as a player option (which apparently are not the same thing)...I wish I could remember who had a deal like that.
                    Nope. Not anymore. New CBA eliminated that.

                    The answer is Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh, when they signed with MIA, by the way, IIRC.
                    twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                    • DanH wrote: View Post
                      Simplest way to put it.

                      If another team offers him the max, they are offering a deal like this: 25.1M, 26.3M, 27.4M, 28.5M.

                      What if we offered: 25.1M, 26.3M, 27.4M, 28.5M, 29.7M (ETO).

                      That gives him exactly what he is being offered by the other team, PLUS 30M in insurance, with the option to hit free agency at the same time he would with their offer.

                      Meanwhile, our max is actually this:

                      25.1M, 27.0M, 28.9M, 30.8M, 32.7M.

                      So, annually, about 1.6M less than our max, assuming the full 5 years.

                      But that assumes that the 30M in insurance is not really worth anything in negotiations. Since if he liked it here, he in theory would simply accept a 4 year offer identical to what the other team was offering (and all signs point to him liking it here).

                      But how much is 30M in insurance worth? Surely more than nothing.

                      For example, we could offer a deal that looks like this:

                      22.8M, 24.5M, 26.2M, 27.9M, 30M (ETO) -> 5 years, 131M, 26.2M per year. The first 4 years work out to 25.3M per year (a 1.5M per year pay cut from the market max, and a 3.6M per year cut from our true max). That still seems like a far better offer than the opposition can make, with 24M more guaranteed dollars.

                      There is some tipping point where the value of the ETO is offset by the lost value in the first 4 years, but it's not at 0 dollars and I imagine it is some point lower than what I've outlined here.
                      Yeah I was thinking 5/125M might get it done. I like the way you laid it out though.

                      Do you think DD would have any interest in taking a flat-rate deal?

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                      • mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                        It is related to, predominantly, DeRozan's hardcore fans continuing with the narrative over the years (before he changed his game because now you don't need to spin any tales) that strongly relied upon his work ethic, loyalty, and public declarations of adoration for Toronto as to his value to the team.

                        If DeRozan keeps playing as he has for most of this season for the rest of the season AND, more importantly, the playoffs then I really don't believe he is settling for anything less than max - nor should he, and we can finally focus on his value to the team based on what matters most - on court production.
                        Right but there is a fundamental and significant difference between the max that we can offer and the max other teams can. The Raptors could technically beat another team's max offer by utilizing the 5th year creatively.

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                        • JWash wrote: View Post
                          Right but there is a fundamental and significant difference between the max that we can offer and the max other teams can. The Raptors could technically beat another team's max offer by utilizing the 5th year creatively.
                          What another team can offer is the minimum, in my opinion.

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                          • mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
                            What another team can offer is the minimum, in my opinion.
                            In terms of total guaranteed salary, I agree. DeMar won't (or shouldn't if he has a half decent agent) consider taking less than 107M total. But with that 5th year the per-year amounts are a little more flexible.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                            • Axel wrote: View Post
                              That is what LeBron is doing though.

                              And I believe that the current cap jump definitely makes now not "business as usual". If a player was going to attempt such a thing, wouldn't historic and unheard of cap jumps be the optimal time to do it?
                              Even if LeBron lost his leg he'd still be making tens of millions of dollars a year for a long time.

                              DeRozan and 99% of players in the league don't have that luxury.

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                              • I have faith in Masai's abilities to bargain DD down from $107M (assuming he's back). I have no hard justification for this other than my belief that Masai is a really good negotiator, and can convince guys to come back for less than they are worth in the open market.

                                As for the 5 year option.. it doesn't really work for everyone. Look at Millsap last summer as an example. He was offered 4 years (and $80M) from Orlando, but went back to Atlanta for 3 years (and $60M). At that point he was a two time all-star and is 4 years older than DD - so one would assume that he'd want a longer term deal. But settled for a smaller term.

                                Perhaps DD (or Masai) would prefer 3 years and not 4 or 5.. and he comes back for that.

                                Every summer is interesting but I've been looking forward to the 2016 summer for a few years now.. can't wait. Actually I'm more excited for it than the playoffs.

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