Everything Derozan

[Barolt]

So the theory is we get rid of DeMar, don't replace his usage and suddenly JV +Bruno+Norm Powell are going to send us during Lowry's prime where? The 5 seed and a first round exit? (This actually seems optimistic to me). Like I don't understand how we get better from letting a 26 year old in his prime who is one of the faces of the franchise and a premier draw to top talent leave.

The idea that DeMar takes away from JV is pretty dumb to me. DeMar runs some of the best action with JV currently, JV has improved every year despite DeMar being on the floor and there are plenty of shots still to go around (including from DeMar and Lowry) if you think JV is ready for more. Finally, there are plenty of areas of JV's devleopment (most notably his defense and passing) that have nothing to do with DeMar.

This isn't really true. DeMar, over the last 10 games, passes to JV an average of once every 6 minutes that they're on the floor together. He can't really be running THAT much action with JV when he's not passing to him.

[Jrice9]

This isn't really true. DeMar, over the last 10 games, passes to JV an average of once every 6 minutes that they're on the floor together. He can't really be running THAT much action with JV when he's not passing to him.

Its still one of JV's most frequent actions, 20.4% of JV's passes received are from DeMar (only Lowry is higher at 40.9%) , with the next person CoJo at 11.6%.

But what I mean by best action is the combination of pretty reasonable usage with tremendous success. JV is shooting 68% on passes from DeMar which is pretty damn high compared to 52% from Lowry and 48.4% from CoJo. Casey should be initiating more of this.

[Barolt]

Its still one of JV's most frequent actions, 20.4% of JV's passes received are from DeMar (only Lowry is higher at 40.9%) , with the next person CoJo at 11.6%.

But what I mean by best action is the combination of pretty reasonable usage with tremendous success. JV is shooting 68% on passes from DeMar which is pretty damn high compared to 52% from Lowry and 48.4% from CoJo. Casey should be initiating more of this.

Chances are there's significant sample size bias on that shooting percentage, as JV has only taken 47 FGA on passes from DeMar all season. By the way, the passing frequency holds up... 121 passes in 702 minutes played together, for an average of once every 5.80 minutes.

Lowry, conversely, passes to Jonas every 2.86 minutes they're on the court together. For CoJo it's once every 3.47 minutes.

Of our 3 primary ball-handlers, DeMar passes to JV with the least frequency.

[A.I]

And before anyone says that DeMar doesn't pass to JV in the pick and roll, understand that NO ONE does. It's like we have made a conscious decision as a team to never use the roll man, which makes no sense at all.

Well if its the whole team that doesn't pass it to JV, then it obviously the coach is to blame.

[OldSkoolCool]

I see what you are arguing with the coaching style is the primary reason why we dont use JV

But realistically, how often does a player in his prime after signing a max deal take a step back and pass off the focal point of the offense to a younger player? Never

If DD resigns, it will be the same shit

[Jrice9]

I see what you are arguing with the coaching style is the primary reason why we dont use JV

But realistically, how often does a player in his prime after signing a max deal take a step back and pass off the focal point of the offense to a younger player? Never

If DD resigns, it will be the same shit

I'm still not convinced that 3 straight top 10 offenses is shit.

I'm also curious about the idea that we should be making roster moves to focusi our offense around a traditional big man whose primary weapon is post play. How many good offenses are built this way in 2015?


Also, all the people who complain that Casey's offenses lack passing and ball movement seem to the same people who want more JV's possessions which are (and maybe Barolt can give me some idea on this) from my watching the least likely to result in that type of ball movement. (He has alot of post ups and is not a good passer)

EDIT: Now do I think JV is bad for offense and should be traded? Absolutely not, but I do think his roll will grow as he improves and I'm not sure his level of touches need to be elevated to an elite level. (it could be increased I think most of us agree with that)

[Barolt]

I'm still not convinced that 3 straight top 10 offenses is shit.

I'm also curious about the idea that we should be making roster moves to focusi our offense around a traditional big man whose primary weapon is post play. How many good offenses are built this way in 2015?


Also, all the people who complain that Casey's offenses lack passing and ball movement seem to the same people who want more JV's possessions which are (and maybe Barolt can give me some idea on this) from my watching the least likely to result in that type of ball movement. (He has alot of post ups and is not a good passer)

EDIT: Now do I think JV is bad for offense and should be traded? Absolutely not, but I do think his roll will grow as he improves and I'm not sure his level of touches need to be elevated to an elite level. (it could be increased I think most of us agree with that)

JV's a more than willing passer. The best example of this is his numbers from the elbow, which I've pointed out before. He gets 2 elbow touches per game, passes on 75% of these, generates points directly through an assist or him scoring on 25% of these touches, and has never turned it over while shooting 50% on shots from here. These are ridiculously good numbers, and there's no reason he doesn't get more touches here.

He also passes out on 13.8% of his post touches, where he gets 5.7 touches per game. He shoots 67.3% when receiving a pass in the post.

The problem is, and always has been, with this offense:

Very few players get touches or possession time.

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/true-usage/

Filter for Toronto on there for some telling statistics. Lowry has been involved in 1405 plays so far this season, 1372 for DeMar.

JV's been involved in 328.

Cory Joseph actually generates a potential assist every 42.88 seconds of possession time. JV generates one every 52.41 seconds of possession time. He's not a bad passer. Also, the eFG% of teammates on potential assist from JV is a staggering 87.5%. When he passes, he sets up good shots.

In terms of time of possession, 19% of the time we've had the ball it's been in CoJo's hands. 17.3% of the time Lowry's. 11.1% of the time DeMar's. The next highest is Scola at 4.6% who's tied with Carroll, who's an offball shooter who's played less games than JV. Ross has the same time of possession as Patterson, at 3.0% of the time. Bismack is at 2.9%. We have no balance in our offense, generally speaking.

By the way, the leaders on our team in terms of time of possession vs. potential assists are JJ @ 18.53 seconds, Ross at 20.47 seconds, and Patterson at 20.55 seconds.

[JawsGT]

Isn't it normal for PG's to possess the ball more and pass the ball more than other players?

[Fully]

Chances are there's significant sample size bias on that shooting percentage, as JV has only taken 47 FGA on passes from DeMar all season. By the way, the passing frequency holds up... 121 passes in 702 minutes played together, for an average of once every 5.80 minutes.

Lowry, conversely, passes to Jonas every 2.86 minutes they're on the court together. For CoJo it's once every 3.47 minutes.

Of our 3 primary ball-handlers, DeMar passes to JV with the least frequency.

It's almost as if Lowry and Joseph play a different position than DeRozan. Perhaps a position that traditionally distributes the ball to one's teammates.

[Barolt]

Isn't it normal for PG's to possess the ball more and pass the ball more than other players?

Definitely, but it's not normal to only have so little spread of playmaking usage. For instance, Golden State has 6 players who average at least 5% playmaking usage, and Ezeli is the only player below 4%.

Cleveland has 6 players above 5% playmaking usage as well, and only 2 below 4%.

We have 4 over 5%(JJ being the 4th), and 3 players including 2 starters(Carroll and JV) below 5%. Keep in mind, playmaking usage only tracks against time on court, so the games they missed don't count against them here.

Also, as I've posted before, one of the problems with our passing falls into the triangle problem. Over 50% of DeMar's passes are to Scola or Lowry, over 50% of Lowry's passes are to Scola and DeMar, and over 60% of Scola's passes are to Lowry and DeMar. How's anyone else supposed to be involved if those 3 are on the floor?

[DanH]

Chances are there's significant sample size bias on that shooting percentage, as JV has only taken 47 FGA on passes from DeMar all season. By the way, the passing frequency holds up... 121 passes in 702 minutes played together, for an average of once every 5.80 minutes.

Lowry, conversely, passes to Jonas every 2.86 minutes they're on the court together. For CoJo it's once every 3.47 minutes.

Of our 3 primary ball-handlers, DeMar passes to JV with the least frequency.

Like half of Lowry and CoJo's passes to JV are those stupid setting-up-the-play passes we make to a big man at the three point arc to turn and send it to another guard on the perimeter. DeMar averages 0.8 assists to JV a game, slightly behind Lowry's 0.9 assists to JV per game. That's 20% of DD's assists and only 14% of Lowry's assists. CoJo doesn't play much with JV so is harder to compare, but only 7% of his assists are to JV. DD is no James Johnson or Ross (who both actively look for JV), but he's not some outlier in terms of not passing to JV - if anything, he's the least of the guard issues there.

[Barolt]

Like half of Lowry and CoJo's passes to JV are those stupid setting-up-the-play passes we make to a big man at the three point arc to turn and send it to another guard on the perimeter. DeMar averages 0.8 assists to JV a game, slightly behind Lowry's 0.9 assists to JV per game. That's 20% of DD's assists and only 14% of Lowry's assists. CoJo doesn't play much with JV so is harder to compare, but only 7% of his assists are to JV. DD is no James Johnson or Ross (who both actively look for JV), but he's not some outlier in terms of not passing to JV - if anything, he's the least of the guard issues there.

Fair enough. I forgot we open every possession with a 3-man weave. Or burned it from my mind with alcohol.

[Jrice9]

The problem is, and always has been, with this offense:

Very few players get touches or possession time.

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/true-usage/

Filter for Toronto on there for some telling statistics. Lowry has been involved in 1405 plays so far this season, 1372 for DeMar.

JV's been involved in 328.


In terms of time of possession, 19% of the time we've had the ball it's been in CoJo's hands. 17.3% of the time Lowry's. 11.1% of the time DeMar's. The next highest is Scola at 4.6% who's tied with Carroll, who's an offball shooter who's played less games than JV. Ross has the same time of possession as Patterson, at 3.0% of the time. Bismack is at 2.9%. We have no balance in our offense, generally speaking.

By the way, the leaders on our team in terms of time of possession vs. potential assists are JJ @ 18.53 seconds, Ross at 20.47 seconds, and Patterson at 20.55 seconds.

Theres alot here that we can discuss but I kind of want to focus on this.

In terms of plays/game (Which is better than raw plays at least imo), Lowry is 9th among point guards, while among shooting guards (they call him a small forward on Nylon but I'm not sure thats an accurate classification imo) he would be 3rd. Jonas is around 20th for centers (though I would say some of this is playing time).

But here's what I find interesting. The teams with the top 10 centers in terms of plays per game are: 14th, 24th, 9th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 12th, 16th, 21st and 9th in offense.

While teams with two perimeters players in the top 20 overall have offensive ratings of:

2nd, 14th, 27th, 7th, 6th (us)


Yes single year sample size caveats etc.

But I do think theres something to the idea that when you have great scoring perimeter players, yeah your offense should rely on them to be good.

[Barolt]

Theres alot here that we can discuss but I kind of want to focus on this.

In terms of plays/game (Which is better than raw plays at least imo), Lowry is 9th among point guards, while among shooting guards (they call him a small forward on Nylon but I'm not sure thats an accurate classification imo) he would be 3rd. Jonas is around 20th for centers (though I would say some of this is playing time).

But here's what I find interesting. The teams with the top 10 centers in terms of plays per game are: 14th, 24th, 9th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 12th, 16th, 21st and 9th in offense.

While teams with two perimeters players in the top 20 overall have offensive ratings of:

2nd, 14th, 27th, 7th, 6th (us)


Yes single year sample size caveats etc.

But I do think theres something to the idea that when you have great scoring perimeter players, yeah your offense should rely on them to be good.

It sort of depends on how you define centers, right? Because Draymond Green plays center in Golden States best lineup, and he's involved in a lot more plays than Klay Thompson. Also, there just aren't a lot of great post-up centers in the league. We happen to have one of them who compares very favorably to a lot of great centers at the same age. I'd say that means that's an advantage we should be able to exploit.

[DanH]

Theres alot here that we can discuss but I kind of want to focus on this.

In terms of plays/game (Which is better than raw plays at least imo), Lowry is 9th among point guards, while among shooting guards (they call him a small forward on Nylon but I'm not sure thats an accurate classification imo) he would be 3rd. Jonas is around 20th for centers (though I would say some of this is playing time).

But here's what I find interesting. The teams with the top 10 centers in terms of plays per game are: 14th, 24th, 9th, 26th, 28th, 30th, 12th, 16th, 21st and 9th in offense.

While teams with two perimeters players in the top 20 overall have offensive ratings of:

2nd, 14th, 27th, 7th, 6th (us)


Yes single year sample size caveats etc.

But I do think theres something to the idea that when you have great scoring perimeter players, yeah your offense should rely on them to be good.

Those seem like mostly random distributions of team rankings, with the slight skew to very good in the second set very much offset by one of the worst teams in the league and an average team. If you were to group teams randomly instead of based on those guard/big usage criteria, you'd get a similar breakdown a decent chunk of the time.