Everything Derozan

[OldSkoolCool]

This refutes the argument you made about the Raptors not needing anyone to take on the scoring load. Through the 52 games this season, no one has shown consistency on the scoring end. I promise you that no one else on this team would make the same number of buckets that Demar does if they were given that number of opportunities. There is no argument to be made in spreading the shots around more, either. Putting up 22 ppg is a respectable feat, and to be winning games on top of that only amplifies Derozans importance to this team, specifically in his ability to score. It also shows consistency and the ability to play through the pressures of being the main option on a team. Last year, James Harden took on the rockets scoring load and shot a % similar to what DD is shooting this year, and we are on track to win a similar number of games to last year's Houston team: 45-37.

If Demar played like a 2nd option, we would be doing much worse, and we would likely see a losing Raptors team with a broken and struggling Derozan having blatant displays of inconsistency, such as during the lockout season.

So, no shots, no victory. No aggressive nature, no pressure on opposing defences. No consistency, no all star for the raps this year.

Outside of Lowry and Patterson no....we haven't had much in terms of consistency. But that is because there isn't much going around in terms of consistent shots, when players get more opportunities, they will score more, right now they aren't even getting the opportunity. Kind of a big old circle of logic.

I'm not concerned to much with one guy putting up a consistent 20ppg. I would rather have 5-6 guys putting up 12-14 ppg with the ability on any given night to go for 20...this makes defending the team and scouting the team much harder to do and will pay off many dividends. Also when more players are "getting their's" on the offensive end it is easier to engage on the defensive end.

This will spread the D more than just having one guy. Just a differing philosophy on what a basketball team should look like I guess.

[BigCamB]

Just because someone "Has to take the shots" doesn't mean it should be DeMar dribbling around for a few secs then jacking a long two that is well contested. I have definitely respected the way DeMar has improved his game, infact my first post on this website was admiring how he's become a much better passer and regularly setting up guys like Amir for dunks or Ross for corner 3's. But there are still things about his game that need to get better, and his shot selection is definitely one of those areas.

[OldSkoolCool]

Just because someone "Has to take the shots" doesn't mean it should be DeMar dribbling around for a few secs then jacking a long two that is well contested. I have definitely respected the way DeMar has improved his game, infact my first post on this website was admiring how he's become a much better passer and regularly setting up guys like Amir for dunks or Ross for corner 3's. But there are still things about his game that need to get better, and his shot selection is definitely one of those areas.

All of this is on the money. Well said

[enlightenment]

Just because someone "Has to take the shots" doesn't mean it should be DeMar dribbling around for a few secs then jacking a long two that is well contested. I have definitely respected the way DeMar has improved his game, infact my first post on this website was admiring how he's become a much better passer and regularly setting up guys like Amir for dunks or Ross for corner 3's. But there are still things about his game that need to get better, and his shot selection is definitely one of those areas.

And at 24, I don't have an issue believing he will continue to polish his decision makings, while refining his skills.

[BigCamB]

And at 24, I don't have an issue believing he will continue to polish his decision makings, while refining his skills.

That's totally fair, and I will be delighted when/if it happens

[GLF]

I didn't forget about this!

As I said previously I thought this was a great post - no sarcasm.

Now I'm not sure who we can get. But there are players out there who are primary scoring options (I would consider DeRozan and Lowry to be primary scoring options for Toronto) and are efficient (not sure about the sooooo part lol) while making similar to money (within $1M above and anything below). Dragic, Afflalo, Ginobilli, Lin, Lowry, Lawson, Millsap, and Ellis come to mind after some thinking (Ginobilli and Lin might be more considered third options though). The bottom line is there aren't many. IF you include rookie contracts things really open up but that is kind of cheating in this situation..... and also explains the premium currently on draft picks.

Your post did kind of open my eyes to a new perspective/line of thinking though so thank you for that.



Bold 1: When I say he'd be All-NBA I should probably say 3rd Team. Essentially I think he can be top 3-4-5 at his position in the league and that will require a lot of team success by the Raptors to get the nod. There is also a big leap from an efficient DeRozan to LeBron and Durant. I don't think DeRozan being efficient puts him on their level - not even close really. DeRozan has just reached the status of average to slightly above average in rebounding, defense, and assisting. Those guys also put up 3x the WS/48 as DeMar so them paid 2x as much is quite a bargain relatively speaking.

Bold 2: Agree but you can't fault Casey for him pulling up for a long contested 2 with a defender all over him with 15 seconds on the shot clock.

Bold 3: Raptors have not made huge gains statistically this season on offense. Last year they were 16th in PPG (97.2) and 13th in ORtg (105.9). This year they are 17th in PPG (99.7 - points are up this season league wide) and 11th in ORtg (107.1). Both seasons they have been 24th in pace. So while the gains aren't huge statistically I notice a big difference watching the games and I credit that to Nurse/Bayno. I think Masai did a good thing gutting the coaching staff.

Very good point about him not being on Lebron's level or Durant's even if he were efficient. I went a little too far with that one lol. And I respect that you did find a few guys who are more efficient that are number one options. But as you said there aren't many and a couple of those I don't believe are number one options on their team at the moment (Ginobilli and Lin). At the end of the day we both agree that Demar has to improve his shot selection. I don't see it happening this season but hopefully it does in the seasons to come. I think the playoffs will be really good for him because it will make him really see what he has to work on and what works in the playoffs and what doesn't. I just feel he should get as much flack about the long twos as he does on this forum mainly because he does so much more good than bad now. I just feel there is alittle too much focus on his flaws at times when he has so much more positives.

[Superjudge]

Well since you asked nicely....




Honestly though what you said makes no logical sense "someone has to take shots"

Hooray...way to break down the game for me!! Did not know that!!

You may be surprised to know, that yes, indeed, there will always be a guy who has to take those shots. i'm not wrong. How those shots are set up by the Offence, and how the shots are created by that individual are here things get infinitely more complicated.

Do you feel like Toronto, given its overall talent level, is a team that has shown it can consistently and effectively run sets that get people wide open easy looks? Not likely right? So, when you see what they do run, and how the difficulty level of even the set plays is often pretty high, its easy to see how Derozan, being the primary guy to take a lot of late clock shots, might take some real stinkers.

Anyhow, no matter. dudes good, great value, good guy. Thats a bout all were gonna get from any of this anyhow.

[Superjudge]

So, yeah, somebody does have to take those shots.

I missed this post earlier Golden, sorry about that. Thank you for taking the time, and using the facts I tend to be a little lazy about using. I tend to over simplify more complicated idea's at times.

but basically, guys need to understand the weight that is placed upon certain players in certain roles. Not only does a guy like DD have to take those shots, he also has to have the mental capacity to deal with missing them. being set up on many occasions to fail is difficult.

The reason I constantly harp on his mental disposition,his team play, his work ethic, is because he IS a guy that can carry this load. He's a stable and positive person, with determination and a strong work ethic..... HUGE in team sports. So when evaluating players, you need to be able to live with warts if the greater overall net is a positive. should you be able to replace a player, without losing any of his intangible net worth, and get younger and more talented for less money, than yes, its a no brainer.

I challenge you guys to do that in Derozans unique position of being who he is, bringing what he does, warts and all, for the cost you have to pay for him. Not an easy task.

[Axel]

Well, actually Craig is absolutely right about that. Dean Oliver had a great breakdown of this concept in his book 'Basketball on Paper', which is one of the earliest publications on advanced stats for basketball. The key here is USG. When you have multiple guys on the court who can't handle average USG (20%) at league average efficiency (105 ORTG), then you are at a disadvantage. This is where high USG players are extremely valuable. The Raps have 3 starters (JV, Amir & Ross) at below 20% USG and Lowry is right at 20%. Those guys just aren't skilled enough yet to increase their usage and maintain league average efficiency. So, that's where DD, taking those tough shots, while still getting a good shot helps out the team so much. Imagine Amir or JV having to create offense or take 3's at the end of the clock. And DD helps out the bench even more, especially when Hayes (11% USG) is out there. So, yeah, somebody does have to take those shots.

I wish I could find the link to Basketball on Paper and the chapter on USG called ... the Problem with Scorers. It's a fantastic read and must-read for anybody whose into advanced stats.

EDIT: Here's the link (you might have to click next when the Google book comes up)
http://books.google.ca/books?id=Xh2i...scorers&f=true

This is a great post and demonstrates great value to what otherwise appeared to be an unfounded opinion. I've never read the book but will do so now.

Kudos

[mcHAPPY]

Matt, overall nice post, but I think you are over-valuing the idea of 'shooting' and under-valuing what is important - scoring. The purpose of basketball is to score and Demar does that at much better than league average efficiency (ORTG 109 vs. 105), because he gets to the FT line. Combine that with the fact that his USG% is elite (28.3% vs. 20%), and as a first option, this is extremely impressive. As a 'scorer', Demar is in elite company already, and that's all that matters. In fact, on this Raptors lineup, with Ross, Amir and JV all being < 20% USG guys, the Raps would look pathetic if not for Demar's vastly improved elite-level 'scoring' efficiency. If nothing else, those long 2's give Amir and JV the opportunity to do what they do well - which is offensive rebounds. LOL. And to say nothing of Demar helping to balance the second unit, especially when GV and Hayes are out there.

My understanding of the stats you presented would be this:

Average NBA shooting guard scores 105 points per 100 possessions.
DeMar scores 109 points per 100 possessions.

DeMar has 28.3% of team plays ran through him when he is on the floor. What is the league average usage?


DeRozan is 11th in usage in the NBA. It seems to me he is getting a lot opportunities to score those extra 4 points per 100 possessions. To me that comes back to inefficiency.


I am either missing something - which is entirely possible - or the assumption reached comparing ORtg and usage is not sound.

[mcHAPPY]

Well, actually Craig is absolutely right about that. Dean Oliver had a great breakdown of this concept in his book 'Basketball on Paper', which is one of the earliest publications on advanced stats for basketball. The key here is USG. When you have multiple guys on the court who can't handle average USG (20%) at league average efficiency (105 ORTG), then you are at a disadvantage. This is where high USG players are extremely valuable. The Raps have 3 starters (JV, Amir & Ross) at below 20% USG and Lowry is right at 20%. Those guys just aren't skilled enough yet to increase their usage and maintain league average efficiency. So, that's where DD, taking those tough shots, while still getting a good shot helps out the team so much. Imagine Amir or JV having to create offense or take 3's at the end of the clock. And DD helps out the bench even more, especially when Hayes (11% USG) is out there. So, yeah, somebody does have to take those shots.

I wish I could find the link to Basketball on Paper and the chapter on USG called ... the Problem with Scorers. It's a fantastic read and must-read for anybody whose into advanced stats.

EDIT: Here's the link (you might have to click next when the Google book comes up)
http://books.google.ca/books?id=Xh2i...scorers&f=true

This is interesting.

Problem I'm seeing is USG does not determine your skill level. USG also does not determine putting players in to position to play to their strengths (coaching/system/style of play). Finally USG does not determine the quality of shot which comes back to consistency and decision making.


This is a great example of having to blend the numbers and the eye test to get a better picture. The problem is the numbers don't give a true picture and the eye test often is biased unless one sits down with a pen/paper and game tape.

[mcHAPPY]

Just because someone "Has to take the shots" doesn't mean it should be DeMar dribbling around for a few secs then jacking a long two that is well contested. I have definitely respected the way DeMar has improved his game, infact my first post on this website was admiring how he's become a much better passer and regularly setting up guys like Amir for dunks or Ross for corner 3's. But there are still things about his game that need to get better, and his shot selection is definitely one of those areas.

His shot chart and his shot distribution chart would agree.

**Not sure what has happened but can't see how to get the chart here anymore. Use to be no issue and straightforward.... anyways go to http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart...zone-mode=zone to check the charts**

[stooley]

My understanding of the stats you presented would be this:

Average NBA shooting guard scores 105 points per 100 possessions.
DeMar scores 109 points per 100 possessions.

DeMar has 28.3% of team plays ran through him when he is on the floor. What is the league average usage?


DeRozan is 11th in usage in the NBA. It seems to me he is getting a lot opportunities to score those extra 4 points per 100 possessions. To me that comes back to inefficiency.


I am either missing something - which is entirely possible - or the assumption reached comparing ORtg and usage is not sound.

Isn't ORTG a rate stat? Per 100 possessions or something?

[Axel]

Isn't ORTG a rate stat? Per 100 possessions or something?

Yes, expected points per 100 possessions.

[stooley]

My understanding of the stats you presented would be this:

Average NBA shooting guard scores 105 points per 100 possessions.
DeMar scores 109 points per 100 possessions.

DeMar has 28.3% of team plays ran through him when he is on the floor. What is the league average usage?


DeRozan is 11th in usage in the NBA. It seems to me he is getting a lot opportunities to score those extra 4 points per 100 possessions. To me that comes back to inefficiency.


I am either missing something - which is entirely possible - or the assumption reached comparing ORtg and usage is not sound.

Yes, expected points per 100 possessions.

I got lost somewhere in there.