Everything Derozan

[Superjudge]

You guys make my head dizzy hahahaha

cheers

[TSF]

I do love how the debate is using like thirty advanced stat categories though. Good to see the evolution of basketball debate.

[golden]

My understanding of the stats you presented would be this:

Average NBA shooting guard scores 105 points per 100 possessions.
DeMar scores 109 points per 100 possessions.

DeMar has 28.3% of team plays ran through him when he is on the floor. What is the league average usage?


DeRozan is 11th in usage in the NBA. It seems to me he is getting a lot opportunities to score those extra 4 points per 100 possessions. To me that comes back to inefficiency.


I am either missing something - which is entirely possible - or the assumption reached comparing ORtg and usage is not sound.

Matt, Dean Oliver's book explains it much better than I can, but what you're missing here is that when an average scorer takes those extra possessions, he will be much worse than league average efficiency or ORTG (105). Efficiency drops off like an absolute cliff, once a player hits his USG% skill level cliff. Even a guy like Rudy Gay, as skilled as he is, drops into the 90's. The fact that Demar can handle elite level usage and still be well above league average ORTG speaks massively to his skill level. Yes, his raw shooting isn't elite, but his 'scoring = ORTG" is. ORTG is pro-rated, so it's not like he's getting extra chances. Extra chances above your USG% cliff actually works against the 'average' player.

In terms of average USG%, we don't need to look at the whole league. It's more relevant in terms of team units. Obviously 100% divided by 5 players, is easy to see that if each player is 'carrying their weight' offensively, then they should all be at 20% USG. But the problem is that some players 'skill/USG' level is far below that (e.g. classic PnR big men, like Tyson Chandler, for example), so you need guys like Melo to pick up the slack. Again, Dean Oliver gives a great example of Shaq/Kobe @ 30% USG, being able to withstand low-USG specialists on the floor like Horry/Fisher and still have a balanced unit offensively.

[Superjudge]

This is a great post and demonstrates great value to what otherwise appeared to be an unfounded opinion. I've never read the book but will do so now.

Kudos

My unfounded opinions aren't usually unfounded, or even opinions, just poorly argued facts, cuz, as Matt pointed out, rightfully, I am lazy. (thanks for keeping me honest Matty)

But ya Axel, i promise, I'm not just tossing stuff out there.... there is method to my madness.

hahaha

[golden]

I do love how the debate is using like thirty advanced stat categories though. Good to see the evolution of basketball debate.

LOL. It's like Niles and Frasier Crane have taken over this thread.

[golden]

My unfounded opinions aren't usually unfounded, or even opinions, just poorly argued facts, cuz, as Matt pointed out, rightfully, I am lazy. (thanks for keeping me honest Matty)

But ya Axel, i promise, I'm not just tossing stuff out there.... there is method to my madness.

hahaha

Dude, I got your back on this one. LOL.

BTW: Reasonable people can disagree. Even more reasonable people agree with me. LOL.

[mcHAPPY]

Matt, Dean Oliver's book explains it much better than I can, but what you're missing here is that when an average scorer takes those extra possessions, he will be much worse than league average efficiency or ORTG (105). Efficiency drops off like an absolute cliff, once a player hits his USG% skill level cliff. Even a guy like Rudy Gay, as skilled as he is, drops into the 90's. The fact that Demar can handle elite level usage and still be well above league average ORTG speaks massively to his skill level. Yes, his raw shooting isn't elite, but his 'scoring = ORTG" is. ORTG is pro-rated, so it's not like he's getting extra chances. Extra chances above your USG% cliff actually works against the 'average' player.

In terms of average USG%, we don't need to look at the whole league. It's more relevant in terms of team units. Obviously 100% divided by 5 players, is easy to see that if each player is 'carrying their weight' offensively, then they should all be at 20% USG. But the problem is that some players 'skill/USG' level is far below that (e.g. classic PnR big men, like Tyson Chandler, for example), so you need guys like Melo to pick up the slack. Again, Dean Oliver gives a great example of Shaq/Kobe @ 30% USG, being able to withstand low-USG specialists on the floor like Horry/Fisher and still have a balanced unit offensively.

What I'm struggling with in the big picture is the bold. The numbers don't factor in situation/context. Here is the forumula BBR uses for ORtg:

The Scoring Possessions formula is by far the most complex:

ScPoss = (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part

where:

FG_Part = FGM * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
qAST = ((MP / (Team_MP / 5)) * (1.14 * ((Team_AST - AST) / Team_FGM))) + ((((Team_AST / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - AST) / ((Team_FGM / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - FGM)) * (1 - (MP / (Team_MP / 5))))
AST_Part = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
FT_Part = (1-(1-(FTM/FTA))^2)*0.4*FTA
Team_Scoring_Poss = Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * Team_FTA * 0.4
Team_ORB_Weight = ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play%) / ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play% + Team_ORB% * (1 - Team_Play%))
Team_ORB% = Team_ORB / (Team_ORB + (Opponent_TRB - Opponent_ORB))
Team_Play% = Team_Scoring_Poss / (Team_FGA + Team_FTA * 0.4 + Team_TOV)
ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%

Missed FG and Missed FT Possessions are calculated as follows:

FGxPoss = (FGA - FGM) * (1 - 1.07 * Team_ORB%)
FTxPoss = ((1 - (FTM / FTA))^2) * 0.4 * FTA

Total Possessions are then computed like so:

TotPoss = ScPoss + FGxPoss + FTxPoss + TOV

Now, Individual Points Produced must also be calculated:

PProd = (PProd_FG_Part + PProd_AST_Part + FTM) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + PProd_ORB_Part

where:

PProd_FG_Part = 2 * (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
PProd_AST_Part = 2 * ((Team_FGM - FGM + 0.5 * (Team_3PM - 3PM)) / (Team_FGM - FGM)) * 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
PProd_ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% * (Team_PTS / (Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * 0.4 * Team_FTA))

After all of that, we can finally calculate the player's individual Offensive Rating:

ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss)

When you take a guy like Rudy Gay, as per your example, he has the same skill level he had in Toronto versus Sacramento. The difference is situational and how he is being used. On the season his ORtg is up to 102 as per basketball reference. It was in the 90's for Toronto.


For me though I keep coming back to the consistency and the decision making. I'm convinced (way to go golden and company) that he is an EFFECTIVE offensive player - which is a big step from a couple of days ago. However the EFFICIENCY for me is still a question mark. The ORtg is offense as a whole and the formula takes a lot of factors in to consideration such as team stats/figures and turnovers. When you look at straight up shooting stats (FG%, eFG%, TS%, adjFG%, PPS) he is pretty average at best.

It would be interesting to chart the number of *dribble*dribble*dribble* contested 20ft shots with 12+ seconds on the shot clock. These are the shots that drive me nuts. They are low percentage and easily avoidable. I'm guessing but I think he takes about 4 a game. Part of playing with a team is having faith in your teammates that if you give up the ball you'll get it back in a better position to score. That is what I'd like to see and I think if you saw that you would be able to put him up with the elite in the game in scoring.


Anyways, good discussion. It has certainly changed my perspective.

[Superjudge]

Lets maybe talk about hings we HAVE noticed.... Were all pretty used to the fade away long two that makes us cringe.... but one thing I noticed this year, more and more, was how he is starting to properly use screens to get his guy on his ass so he can elevate for easy shots... I was looking for an example but havent found a goo done, but one I did find, is whats called a pin down in some circles...where you have set you guy up so many times with the step through the screen, you let him cheat and the screen boxes him down, or pins him, freeing the shooter up for the easy J. I absolutely love this shit

[Superjudge]

Go to the 4:52 moment.... This is what i was hoping to find. Notice how he moves past the screen but steps through it, forward.... its text book for getting you guy on your ass..... and its a fantastic habit.

[Axel]

Lets maybe talk about hings we HAVE noticed.... Were all pretty used to the fade away long two that makes us cringe.... but one thing I noticed this year, more and more, was how he is starting to properly use screens to get his guy on his ass so he can elevate for easy shots... I was looking for an example but havent found a goo done, but one I did find, is whats called a pin down in some circles...where you have set you guy up so many times with the step through the screen, you let him cheat and the screen boxes him down, or pins him, freeing the shooter up for the easy J. I absolutely love this shit

It's play like this that make me love basketball. Show that play to the average person and they think, "well the defender seems to go at a weird angle", show it to a basketball fan and they realize that there must have been multiple similar sets where Demar curls to set up his man to take that angle, just to get free that time. Every trip down the court is a move in the grand strategy, sometimes it's the main objective, other times it's just the distraction to set up the next play (or 3 plays down the road).

Again though, where does Demar pull up for the shot? 20 feet with 10 on the clock. Run that whole set 2 feet further out all game long, and you have an open 3 point attempt instead of a long 2.

[salmon]

Numbers that meet basketball reason take on a different meaning. Who would have thought? All it took was an articulate academic with pictures. Great find!!!!! I hope it changes some attitudes.

[mcHAPPY]

Numbers that meet basketball reason take on a different meaning. Who would have thought? All it took was an articulate academic with pictures. Great find!!!!! I hope it changes some attitudes.

I do as well.

Hopefully this exchange can show how a difference of opinion can be discussed without condescending bullshit, insults, and off topic personal attacks.

Maybe it can also show how when things do get personal it can be taken to the private messages and sorted out.

Then - and here is the kicker! - no grudges can be held and constructive conversation can ensure back on the main boards (right, Craig? :P)

This has been an enlightening day for me and reminds me why I originally started on RR.... and often in last number of months have found myself wondering why I came here to begin with.

[iblastoff]

Matt, Dean Oliver's book explains it much better than I can, but what you're missing here is that when an average scorer takes those extra possessions, he will be much worse than league average efficiency or ORTG (105). Efficiency drops off like an absolute cliff, once a player hits his USG% skill level cliff. Even a guy like Rudy Gay, as skilled as he is, drops into the 90's. The fact that Demar can handle elite level usage and still be well above league average ORTG speaks massively to his skill level. Yes, his raw shooting isn't elite, but his 'scoring = ORTG" is. ORTG is pro-rated, so it's not like he's getting extra chances. Extra chances above your USG% cliff actually works against the 'average' player.

In terms of average USG%, we don't need to look at the whole league. It's more relevant in terms of team units. Obviously 100% divided by 5 players, is easy to see that if each player is 'carrying their weight' offensively, then they should all be at 20% USG. But the problem is that some players 'skill/USG' level is far below that (e.g. classic PnR big men, like Tyson Chandler, for example), so you need guys like Melo to pick up the slack. Again, Dean Oliver gives a great example of Shaq/Kobe @ 30% USG, being able to withstand low-USG specialists on the floor like Horry/Fisher and still have a balanced unit offensively.

what exactly is a players USG% skill level cliff? and i don't get how an average player taking more possessions will drop below league average efficiency. wouldn't that apply to any average player over a stretch of games then? or does it have to be within a single game? i don't get how that makes sense.

[Superjudge]

Then - and here is the kicker! - no grudges can be held and constructive conversation can ensure back on the main boards (right, Craig? :P)

This has been an enlightening day for me and reminds me why I originally started on RR.... and often in last number of months have found myself wondering why I came here to begin with.

hahahaha I would never hold a grudge buddy. I just need to remember that sometimes people take things a bit mor eto heart than I do.... I truly am "that guy" that types like I would talk in a bar watching the game.... it almost NEVER works online hahaha.

You guys are all good dudes as far as I'm concerned, if I didn't like ya, I'd never call you princesses.....

Ya princesses

:P

[Superjudge]

and ya matt, I agree man, the reason i love this place IS what you just documented.... well put bud.